This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 18/12/2024. Whilst the run up to Christmas is looking windy with some rain and snow, high pressure will settle things down from Christmas Day onwards. Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. I'll be looking
00:04at what we can expect weather wise in the run up to Christmas and through the Christmas
00:08period itself. Now, first of all, looking at the bigger picture and currently the jet
00:12stream is running across the UK and it's driven an area of low pressure and associated weather
00:17system that's made its way in across southern parts, bringing quite a bit of rain. As well
00:21as this, we've had mild air across much of the country so far this week. Temperatures
00:26well above average for the time of year, but we do have cold air nearby starting to make
00:30its way in. And as this low pressure drifts away towards the east, we have a ridge building
00:35from the west. And so we got our flow coming from the northwest, a cold direction. And
00:40that cold air is going to penetrate across much of the country as we go into Thursday.
00:46And as well as the cold air, notice how tightly packed those ice bars are. It is going to
00:51be blustery. It's going to be quite windy when you factor in the wind and the cold air
00:54is going to feel pretty raw despite the fact that there'll be a decent amount of sunshine
00:58for many of us. A quiet end to the day on Thursday. So a chilly start to the night Thursday
01:03night into Friday. But then another front makes its way in. So we will see cloud building
01:07and a bit of rain arriving as well as we go through Friday itself. And then our attention
01:12turns to what's going on in the Atlantic, a strong jet. And now this strong jet is going
01:17to drive an area of low pressure that's going to go through something called explosive cyclogenesis.
01:23So it's going to deepen rapidly as it heads towards the UK. Now, confidence on the track
01:27of this low is actually relatively high. Good chance it's going to track just to the north
01:32of the UK as we go through this weekend. What's a little less confident is exactly how strong
01:38the winds are going to be because we're not quite so sure exactly how steep this pressure
01:42gradient is going to be. Nonetheless, we are expecting some very windy weather across northern
01:47parts in particular as we go into Saturday and then perhaps becoming a bit more widespread
01:51strong winds on Sunday. After a colder blip on Thursday, nothing out of the ordinary for
01:57the time of year. Temperatures are actually going to pick up again as we go through Friday
02:01and Saturday. But there's more cold air waiting. And so as we go through the second half of
02:05the weekend, as the low continues to push its way eastwards, we are going to see that
02:09cold air pushing in again. And so Sunday looks like it's going to be a bit chillier for some
02:14of us. And with that, there's a greater chance of seeing some wintry hazards. Notice as well
02:18an occluded front wrapping around and pushing back through. So whilst it's going to be showers
02:22for many places, there could be some more persistent rain across northern parts as we
02:26go through Sunday. But let's look at the weather in a little bit more detail. So heading back to
02:31the rest of Wednesday. And yes, it's a pretty wet picture across southern parts of the UK.
02:35That wet weather, though, will clear away towards the east. And like I said, we have a ridge of
02:40high pressure. So things are going to quiet down for many Thursdays, actually looking like a decent
02:45day. Lots of winter sunshine on offer, but there will be some showers around. And with that cold
02:49air, good chance those showers will be wintry over modest higher ground further north above
02:54300 to 400 metres or so. We could see some lying snow in places because of those wintry showers.
03:00Most of the showers will die out for a time as we go through later Thursday and overnight into
03:04Friday before then another system comes through. So we are going to see some clouds, some rain,
03:09in association with a front making its way southeastwards as we go through Friday. But
03:14it's the winds really that we need to be concerned about as we go into the weekend.
03:18So let's look at the gusts in association with this deep low that's coming in. You can see
03:23they're really going to strengthen as we go through later Friday night and more so through
03:27Saturday itself. Like I said already, on Saturday, it's pretty likely that the strong winds are really
03:33going to be confined to the north of the UK. Well, the strongest winds anyway. Gusts could reach
03:39perhaps up to 70 or 80 miles per hour in the most exposed spots around the Western Isles at
03:43the Outer Hebrides. We could see some very strong gusts, but it's not necessarily that
03:49certain that will definitely happen. I think what's more likely is we are going to see some
03:53strong gusts across northern parts and then widely on Sunday it is going to be windy as this low
03:58drifts away towards the northeast, towards Scandinavia. So Saturday could perhaps bring
04:03the strongest winds, but Sunday is more likely to be windy quite widely for most of us.
04:09If we look at that in a slightly different way, and here's some ECMWF output showing
04:14the probability of greater than 50 knots gusts and that's around 57 miles per hour,
04:20so a bit stronger than gales. And you can see as we go through the day, it really is just across
04:24the north-northwest of the UK that we have a good chance of seeing those really strong gusts.
04:30But if we compare this to the chart for Sunday, so the same chart but this time just for Sunday
04:35instead, and you can see the probability, albeit slightly lower, but looks more widespread across
04:41the country. So if you're in the south, it looks like Sunday is going to be the windier day.
04:46If you're in the north, both days look pretty windy, but there's probably a greater chance of
04:51us seeing those extreme winds or the most extreme winds, 70, 80 miles per hour on Saturday as opposed
04:57to Sunday. Let's look at the details through Friday though, because lots of people will be
05:01travelling, one of the busiest travelling days of the year, and like we had a front pushing its way
05:06south-eastwards, so cloud and rain making its way south-eastwards across the country. Behind it,
05:11there will be some showers and they could have a bit of a wintry element perhaps over the highest
05:15ground, but it's not going to be as cold as on Thursday. Temperatures picking up just that little
05:20bit, high single figures, perhaps even double digits for a few places. Darting ahead to Saturday,
05:25and it's going to be a showery picture for many of us. Outbreaks of showery rain, there will be a
05:30front pushing through, so that could bring some squally rain and some convective bursts at times,
05:35so some heavy pulses of rain, but plenty of outbreaks of showers coming through as well,
05:40and it's definitely those winds that we need to watch out for, and so some of those showers could
05:45be wintry as well over the higher ground of Scotland in particular. But now if we look to
05:49Sunday, and by this point, again, it's a showery setup for many places, piling down on that brisk
05:56or strong north-northwesterly flow, but with those lower temperatures, there's a greater chance of
06:02us seeing some sleet or snow. Some places, some modest higher ground over Scotland, could wake
06:06up to a bit of covering of snow first thing on Sunday morning. Perhaps as we go through the day
06:11Sunday itself, we're likely to see the snow becoming more rain as that occlusion that I
06:16mentioned before wraps around and pushes its way back in, so we could see some outbreaks of more
06:20persistent rain arriving for a time. But most places seeing some showers, also some sunny
06:24breaks developing, but yes, Sunday does look like the colder and windier day of the weekend for many
06:30of us. Looking a bit further ahead then, and we're actually looking through the next few days,
06:35because we talked about rainfall totals, each individual event doesn't actually look like it
06:39will cause too many problems, but if we run through the rest of this week and the weekend,
06:45looking at our rainfall totals, you can see they are actually going to build up. So whilst
06:50any frontal system that comes through through the next few days is only likely to bring 20 to 30,
06:55possibly 40 millimetres to some places. When you add it all up, some places, high ground of Wales,
07:00north-west England, western parts of Scotland, could be looking at around 80-90 millimetres. So
07:07individually, those events probably not enough to cause any major impacts, but by the time that we
07:11get to Saturday, Sunday, with some heavy pulses of rain, quite likely we could start to see some
07:16impacts, because of the wet weather that we've seen in the preceding few days. What happens
07:21thereafter though? Well, as we go through later Sunday, we have another ridge of high pressure
07:25building, so quieter for a time later Sunday and overnight into Monday. But another system then
07:31comes through, and so we are going to see some more clouds, some rain for a time as we go through
07:35later Monday and into Tuesday. But then it's this area of high pressure that's trying to build its
07:40way and it's trying on Monday, but it doesn't win out until slightly later on. It's more as we head
07:45through Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day itself that we're going to see this high pushing
07:49its way northwards and becoming more dominant across the U.K. and keeping fronts just to the
07:54north or over the far north of the U.K. We can see that in a different way if we look at our
07:59multi-modal weather regime probability. And at the moment, the blue is indicating lower pressure,
08:04more unsettled weather quite likely in the run-up to Christmas. But as we head towards Christmas Day
08:09and the following few days, you can see the oranges, the reds, the high pressure patterns,
08:14the anti-cyclonic patterns look more likely. And so it's pretty confident that we are going to see
08:18high pressure building and dominating across the country as we go through Christmas Day and more
08:24so by Boxing Day and thereafter. So a more settled spell from Christmas Day onwards. If we look at
08:30the most likely regimes from ECMWF and you can see high pressure sitting across southern parts of the
08:35U.K. looks most likely for Christmas Day. That still will allow for some wet and windy weather
08:40across the far north of the U.K. But across much of the country, it's looking largely fine and dry.
08:46A very different picture to the run-up to Christmas when it's looking pretty changeable.
08:50And it looks like this settled spell will last through Boxing Day and beyond even until the 27th
08:56when also lots of people will be traveling. It looks like it's going to be pretty settled indeed.
09:02So yes, across the far north of the U.K., some wet and windy weather still to come,
09:05but elsewhere, lots of fine weather as we go through the Christmas period. To sum that up then,
09:10in the run-up too, we can expect some wet, some windy weather. The strongest winds likely to be
09:15this weekend, particularly Saturday in the north. That's when we could see gusts of around 70 to 80
09:20miles per hour. So that could cause some disruption. There will be some heavy rain around with totals
09:24building up, even though each individual event unlikely to cause any significant disruption.
09:29But when you add those rainfall totals, we could see a bit of localized flooding.
09:32But from Christmas Day onwards, that's when we get the high pressure building,
09:36and so things should settle down. With that though, with the high pressure,
09:39things largely calm. And the time of year, that does bring an increasing risk of some frost by
09:44night and also some fog patches as well. Now, for more information, of course, you'll want to
09:49subscribe to our YouTube channel so you never miss an update. Worth bearing in mind,
09:53this will be the last 10-day trend for the year. We won't be back with a 10-day trend until January,
09:58but you can, of course, keep up to date with our deep dives, our week aheads, our weekend forecast,
10:03all our regular forecasts, and also our 14-day outlook is available on our app,
10:08updated every Tuesday and Friday. I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.