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00:00While Syrian Christians are also celebrating this Wednesday, even as they, along with other
00:04religious minorities in the country, face an uncertain future, the new leadership in
00:09Damascus, headed by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Taril al-Sham, has vowed to ensure religious
00:15freedom in the Sunni-majority country.
00:18However, some Christians are not convinced fearing the new leadership's ideology will
00:22mean their community's aspirations will not be taken into account in the transition.
00:28To talk more about the future for Christians in Syria, but also in the Middle East, we're
00:32joined by Dr. H.A. Helier, who's a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services
00:38Institute for Defence and Security.
00:40Thank you very much for joining us on France 24.
00:42We're going to start with Syria then, because on Tuesday, Christians held protests over
00:49the burning of a Christmas tree in Hama.
00:51Do you think that's an isolated incident, or is it likely we'll see more of these kinds
00:57of things?
01:00So thank you.
01:01Thank you for having me on your program.
01:03It's clearly an isolated incident.
01:05We haven't seen any others throughout the season thus far.
01:10So there's been one tree burning.
01:13We also saw a reaction from the new authorities that was pretty swift in terms of saying such
01:21things have to be condemned, that there'll be punishment of the perpetrators.
01:28So I think it's important not to try to extrapolate from a single incident what the future may
01:33hold.
01:34Of course, the future is a very uncertain one, because this is a transitional period
01:39after the fall of one of the most brutal regimes in the Arab world in my lifetime.
01:47And the way forward seems to be open to many different types of possibilities and potentials.
01:56A lot of good signals thus far from the new authorities.
02:00We all wait to see how these are translated into actual policies on the ground.
02:05But so far, good signals.
02:06OK, so we'll have to wait and see.
02:09But do you believe that the new leadership will and will be able to protect Christians
02:15and other minorities?
02:18So it's not so much what I believe.
02:19It's purely what we can judge on the basis of what's been said.
02:26But again, good speeches, good signals.
02:28But we wait to see about policies.
02:30Again, this is a very new time.
02:34It's a transitional process.
02:36They've been ruling Syria now for the past two weeks, not for the past two years or two
02:41months.
02:43The indications are that they want to build a pathway forward that includes all of Syria's
02:48communities.
02:50And of course, Syria's Christians are as Syrian as everybody else.
02:55They've made that clear.
02:57The new authorities have talked about, you know, the plurality of Syria.
03:01So the signals are fine.
03:03The signals, I think, are very good, actually.
03:06But how this actually plays out in the policy is what I think everybody is waiting for.
03:12Well, Lebanon has the biggest Christian population of any country in the Middle East, but that's
03:18been dwindling in recent years.
03:20Why is that?
03:24So proportionally speaking, it has the largest Christian population.
03:28It doesn't have the absolute largest.
03:30Of course, you have far more in other places.
03:34Why it's dwindling?
03:35Well, because Lebanon is going through an incredibly difficult economic period where
03:41anybody who's able to leave is more inclined to do so.
03:47And Christian communities have been going to places like France and elsewhere if they're
03:52able to, and they're doing so in significant numbers.
04:00Beyond that, you can talk about the difference in terms of birth rates from other communities
04:06as well.
04:07But typically speaking, you have, according to some reports, at least higher proportions
04:13of foreign passports among some communities in Lebanon than others.
04:18So they're able to leave more easily.
04:22But I'm not sure where you're getting at here.
04:25OK, well, what about the Christian population in Gaza?
04:28I mean, we've seen a similar phenomenon when many had already left before the October 7th
04:34war.
04:35It's obviously hard to imagine those people ever moving back, given the destruction.
04:41What kind of effects do you think this has when certain religious communities leave these
04:47countries?
04:48What kind of shifts does that give way to?
04:54So I want to zoom out for a little bit here.
04:58The main problem in Gaza is, of course, Israel's war on Gaza and a long running occupation
05:05that's been going on for decades.
05:07And Christian communities in Gaza, as well as throughout the Palestinian Occupied Territories
05:12and East Jerusalem, which is occupied, the West Bank, of course, have been complaining
05:18about the effects of the occupation and the war on Gaza as it pertains to their communities.
05:26And you've seen the Catholic Church itself come out incredibly publicly vis-a-vis the
05:32Pope over the last few days and the last year in terms of the impact of Israel's war
05:38on Gaza, as well as throughout, I have to say, the rest of the Occupied Territories.
05:43So that's what we're looking at here.
05:46The largest issue in terms of the problems and the makeup of society, they all stem from
05:54the fact that there's an occupation that's been going on since 1967, uninterrupted, and
06:01the incredible increase of violence, particularly in Gaza, but also in the West Bank, where
06:06Palestinians are being pushed from their villages and their lands being expropriated.
06:12You know, that's the huge elephant in the room, as it were.
06:17Of course, when it comes to the plurality of society, all of that is going to take a
06:24hit because the more people can leave under such pressure than I think the more they will.
06:32I don't agree, by the way, that they'll never come back.
06:35I think many of them would want to come back, would try to come back.
06:38But when it comes to Gaza, a huge amount would need to take place in order to make it habitable.
06:45And it is incredibly difficult for people to just live in Gaza right now, where you
06:50see horrific images of, you know, animals eating human remains because of the level
06:56of depravity that has been visited upon the occupied territory by the Israeli forces.
07:03OK, well, we can we can zoom out a bit if you want.
07:06I mean, what what hope do you think then there is for peace in this region?
07:14The issue is, frankly, about countries' policies.
07:18First of all, when you say peace in the region, you know, we might as well talk about peace
07:22in Europe, because the the fact that there's a war in Ukraine doesn't mean that there's
07:28war throughout the European region.
07:31And the Arab world more generally, thankfully, does not suffer from the same sort of war
07:37that is being visited on Gaza.
07:40But in terms of if I think I understand your question to be, will there be peace in the
07:46Palestinian occupied territories vis-a-vis the Israeli occupation?
07:52And it's as simple as that.
07:53If the Israeli occupation were to end, then I think that you would see a huge amount of
08:01normalization take place between the Israelis and their neighbors.
08:06This has been stated multiple times by the Arab states, not just over the last year,
08:14but over the last two decades at the very least.
08:18But hitherto, you haven't seen moves in that direction come from Tel Aviv.
08:23Rather, you've seen more expropriation of Palestinian territories.
08:29You've seen, you know, this new conflict that erupted when it came to taking territory in
08:36Syria, of course, Lebanon of the past year.
08:40So is there hope?
08:41There's always hope for peaceful resolutions to all of these conflicts.
08:46But there have to be sincere moves in order to move in that direction.
08:52And I think when you look at how the international community has responded, at least rhetorically
08:59over the past year, you look at the UN resolutions, you look at the United Nations Security Council,
09:03but also the General Assembly resolutions, it's very clear where I think world public
09:09opinion has gone.
09:11They see correctly Israel as occupying territory that is an illegal occupation of, that's,
09:17you know, been stated by the ICJ as well.
09:22And it's difficult to come to peaceful settlements with countries when they insist on breaking
09:29international law.
09:32So I think that that's where we have to move here.
09:35It's not simply about negotiating for peace.
09:37It's about holding everybody, whether it be the Palestinians or the Israelis or the
09:42Syrians or whoever it is, to a single standard, that of international law.
09:48And if we focus on that, I think that durable and a just peace can certainly take place.
09:54And that would be the interest of all of our security.
09:57All right.
09:58Dr. H.A.
09:59Helia from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security.
10:04Thank you very much for your time.