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00:00For more on this story, we can bring in Dr. Ece Helia, Senior Associate Fellow in International
00:06Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute.
00:08Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
00:11This offensive came as the ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah
00:17went into effect.
00:18Does the timing of this offensive mean anything to you or was it just purely coincidental?
00:25Thank you for having me on your program.
00:27So it's not coincidental, like it didn't just happen by chance, of course.
00:34But I'm not sure that the ceasefire in Lebanon is really what spurred this on.
00:39There were a number of different things that have happened over the last few months and
00:43over the past year that haven't been to the benefit of the Assad regime.
00:49The Russians, of course, are deeply involved in a quagmire in Ukraine and new concerns
00:54also in terms of their role with Georgia.
00:57Hezbollah had to be redeployed from Syria down into Lebanon to continue the campaign
01:05against the Israelis.
01:07Iran doesn't have quite the same capacity that people gave it previously credit for
01:15in terms of operations in the region as well.
01:18So what I think that you see over the last, you know, few days is the result of a number
01:24of things coming together.
01:25I've only mentioned a few and I'm not saying that I know the rest and I'm keeping it from
01:28you.
01:29I'm saying that actually there are bound to be other factors that played to greater or
01:35lesser extent roles in why this happened, particularly now.
01:39And we won't really know fully what all of that is about for at least, you know, a few
01:44weeks or so.
01:46And I suspect we'll be still asking this sort of question in the months ahead.
01:52And I think that what behooves all of us is just to be very cautious about how certain
01:57we are about what's actually happening right now.
02:00Indeed.
02:01What's happening next.
02:02Exactly.
02:03Let's talk about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
02:05Who exactly are they and what's their endgame here?
02:09I think your report just mentioned that.
02:13And you know, I will say in one addition to your report is that they actually went to
02:17war against, you know, al-Qaeda earlier on.
02:24So it's not simply that they broke away, but it was a pretty vicious breaking away.
02:29They're not a liberal progressive movement, OK?
02:32But what they are is a movement that has been seeking the downfall of the Assad regime for
02:39a decade, more than a decade now.
02:42And I think what you what you can see also over the past few days is that there's still
02:47a huge number of Syrians, writ large, that are very keen to see the back of the Assad
02:53regime due to its authoritarianism and its treatment of ordinary Syrians.
02:59And I think that that's also a good reminder to many of us who thought, well, you know,
03:05the uprising is over, time to normalize relations with Assad because it's all done and dusted.
03:11Well, it's certainly not done and dusted.
03:14I think things are still in tremendous flux.
03:17And if we want to have some sort of sustainable stability for Syria going forward, we have
03:25to be very realistic about the deeply held concerns that average Syrians have about this
03:32regime and stop ignoring it or slipping under the rug.
03:37We've seen Russia step in with airstrikes over the past few days.
03:41Moscow is, as you mentioned, distracted with its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
03:46Iran is pledging its assistance.
03:48But as you said, Iran appears a little weaker than everyone gave it credit for.
03:54Will Bashar al-Assad continue to get the kind of support he had in the past?
04:00Short answer, no.
04:02But that doesn't mean that he he folds either.
04:05OK, so.
04:06So you're saying he's going to survive this?
04:09No, I'm saying I don't know.
04:11And I think you don't.
04:12Well, not you personally, but I think none of us know.
04:14I think that really what we have right now is a very unstable situation.
04:20If I had to guess, I'd say he's not going to be swept from power in the next week.
04:26But we don't know where this all ends up.
04:30And I think that people who say that they do know are either incredibly misinformed
04:36or frankly, you know, telling fibs.
04:39I didn't see anybody predict the last few days either last week.
04:43OK, so things can move.
04:45Things can change.
04:47I do think that he can't count on quite the same amount of support that he had before
04:51because they're busy.
04:52They're tied up.
04:54Their capacity isn't what it used to be.
04:56OK.
04:57But does that mean that he crumbles?
04:59Well, something that's very different about now as compared to 2011, as I think probably
05:04most governments in the region don't want him to go, that they're more concerned about
05:08him going than they are about him staying.
05:11Whereas this was not really the case back in 2011.
05:15I just want to jump in there because Turkey's foreign minister has been speaking and earlier
05:18he said it's important to have stability in Syria.
05:21A channel of dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition should be opened up.
05:25What is the likelihood?
05:27What's the likelihood of this happening?
05:29Well, I think that's actually quite likely in the sense that what you have at the moment
05:35is, of course, a weakened Assad regime, but again, not one that's going to disappear overnight.
05:43And I think that even if you ask the most diehard supporters of the rebels, OK, I think
05:49they would prefer a negotiated process that is less destabilizing and less upheaval for
05:59the people of Syria than than than the alternative of, you know, complete mayhem.
06:05Right. But there are many things in between.
06:09And it's not it's not a zero sum game.
06:11It could be that as a result of these movements over the last few days, a weakened Assad regime
06:18is more willing to compromise with representatives of the opposition and embark on a new process.
06:26We don't know.
06:28And I think we do have to wait and see.
06:30Over the last few months, as the war in Gaza continues, and of course, we saw Israel's
06:34offensive.
06:35War on Gaza.
06:37Yeah.
06:38Yeah.
06:39What is the Israeli position here?
06:41Because we have also seen Israel conduct airstrikes against Syrian government positions in Syria.
06:48Isn't it in Israel's best interest to have Bashar al-Assad at the helm to prevent various
06:54armed militant groups from gaining ground in Syria?
07:01You can ask them.
07:05I would presume that that's the case.
07:08But the Israelis can speak for themselves.
07:12What we've seen over the past year is, you know, I mean, we're talking I mean, I've just
07:17talked to you about Bashar al-Assad and the authoritarian regime that he's overseen, not
07:24just his own regime personally, but that of his father's.
07:28You know, Israel currently has a prime minister and a defense minister who are both being
07:34investigated for war crimes at the ICC.
07:37So you know, their calculations about Syria are, of course, quite well known.
07:42They would prefer to have an Assad regime.
07:45I think they'd prefer for it to be weakened.
07:48But, you know, I think that the discussion ought to be about what's in the interests
07:54of the people of Syria and not external powers.
07:59Dr. Helia, thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
08:02Thanks.
08:03Take care.