India’s best known TV anchor and political commentator Rajdeep Sardesai speaks with Mayank Chhaya | SAM Conversation
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00:00Well-known Indian journalist, writer and television presenter Rajdeep Sardesai's latest and third
00:16in a trilogy of books about India's three general elections since 2014, offers a detail-rich
00:23look inside the third parliamentary election earlier this year.
00:27The book, titled 2024, the election that surprised India, examines the country's fractious political
00:33landscape from many vantage points where Rajdeep brings to bear his years of expertise having
00:39extensively reported the last ten elections.
00:42Rajdeep spoke to Mahim Shah reports about his book and beyond.
00:46Welcome to MCR, Rajdeep.
00:48It's a great pleasure to have you.
00:50Thank you very much, Mahim.
00:51Good to see you after a while and always a pleasure talking to you.
00:54And many congratulations on your latest book, 2024, the election that surprised India.
01:02It's doing rather well and all I can say is I hope more and more people read it and give
01:07me feedback, critical or otherwise, that's fine.
01:11I want to begin with two specific details in your book before I broaden the questions
01:15a bit.
01:16In a sense, they are related.
01:19You write about a meeting in June 2019 between Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah
01:25and NSA Ajit Doval, the so-called P3 as you described them.
01:30And the meeting was about the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A.
01:36Tell me a bit more about it because the next question has sort of an interconnectivity
01:40to that.
01:42Look, the fact is that this is a very centralized government.
01:47Decisions are taken by a very small group in this government.
01:51And I think the Article 370 decision to effectively abrogate it was part of this entire attempt
01:57to ensure that secrecy was given topmost priority, which meant that only the Prime Minister Amit
02:06Shah and Ajit Doval knew exactly what was happening.
02:10Everyone else, including senior secretaries to the government, were only being spoken
02:14to on a need-to-know basis.
02:17The government's claim is that when you're taking a major decision like this, which can
02:20have huge repercussions, you cannot give it to a wider group.
02:24A similar policy was followed in 2016 when currency was demonetized.
02:30And the same principle was adopted for 370.
02:32Even the governor of Jammu and Kashmir was only informed the day before the decision
02:37for revocation was taken, and he wasn't even informed till the very end about the decision
02:42to effectively downsize Jammu and Kashmir into a union territory.
02:47So I think it reflects the manner in which the Modi-Shah system of governance operates.
02:54Very tightly controlled, deeply centralized.
02:58But that's extraordinary.
02:59I mean, a country of 1.4 billion presided over by three men taking a decision of this
03:06magnitude.
03:07I was amazed when I read that.
03:09It's almost like a throwaway reference early on in your book.
03:13Absolutely, it is.
03:14I mean, I think if you see, even when it comes to the COVID lockdown, again, another major
03:19decision which was taken, really again, with even the health ministry not fully, or certainly
03:27the state health ministers, or indeed the chief ministers, not being taken into confidence.
03:34It was again taken at the center by a very small group, a decision, again, which had
03:39huge repercussions.
03:40It's the way the Modi model operates.
03:43You can, you know, you can suggest that it's perhaps a strange way of governing a country
03:48of 1.4 billion people.
03:51They will believe that since they've been in power for 10 years, it's worked for them,
03:54because it ensures that they virtually control this otherwise chaotic political system.
04:02You know, there is another somewhat, I think it is connected, you may not agree with it,
04:07but you also make a reference in 1998, Amit Shah as a young politician, rejecting the
04:14Atal Bihari Vajpayee government's decision to go nuclear, and his argument being, if
04:20we go nuclear, inevitably Pakistan will go nuclear, and that forecloses the option for
04:25Akan Bharat, because then there is equity between two nuclear armed neighbors.
04:29Now, again, that's a, that's a quite a striking detail that you have just incidentally mentioned
04:36it.
04:37So I see 370 and Akan Bharat as sort of, there is a, there is a broader ideological connection.
04:44Well, look, you know, I think the one thing that strike has always struck me about Amit
04:49Shah is that Amit Shah stands out to me as a politician deeply committed to a certain
04:55ideological belief system that is ingrained in the Sangh Parivar.
05:00The belief in Akan Bharat is one of those ideological belief systems.
05:05I would even venture so far to say that even Prime Minister Modi, even though he was an
05:10RSS pracharak, is actually far more politically flexible when it comes to ideology.
05:17He's willing at times for power to compromise on ideology.
05:21Not so with Amit Shah.
05:23And even therefore, when he wrote that letter, he was a young first-time MLA in Gujarat to
05:28Prime Minister Vajpayee questioning the decision to go nuclear.
05:32Or indeed, the manner in which he sort of explained the decision to revoke Article 370
05:37or bringing the Citizenship Amendment Act.
05:40With Amit Shah, you see much more the hard-nosed political ideologue come strategist.
05:46And therefore, I'm not surprised that Amit Shah is the one who sort of spearheaded the
05:51move to revoke Article 370 because he's the kind of leader who believes that if you have
05:58voted in a Hindutva government, then it must pursue the core Hindutva ideological agenda.
06:05To broaden a bit, Prime Minister Modi will be close to 80 by the time he finishes his third
06:10term.
06:11I think it is conceivable that this is his farewell term.
06:14That being the case, do you think the BJP has probably peaked electorally?
06:22Look, first of all, we are making a huge assumption that this is his last term.
06:28Prime Minister Modi will be 79 in 2029.
06:32That's young for Indian politicians.
06:34I mean, Manmohan Singh was Prime Minister when he was in the 80s.
06:37So was Amaraji Desai.
06:39So let's not rule out the fact that Mr. Modi will push for re-election even in 2029.
06:46I don't see Mr. Modi frankly going anywhere as of now.
06:51I don't think he's in any mood to relinquish power.
06:54So look, I think the BJP brand Modi, in my view, is not as powerful as it was 10 years ago.
07:05I think when Mr. Modi came to power between 2014, he peaked in 2019.
07:10That 2019 election, particularly after the strikes in Balakot inside Pakistan,
07:17marked the peak, I believe, of Mr. Modi's personal popularity.
07:21Since then, as we've seen, there have been state elections where
07:24when Mr. Modi is not on the ticket, the BJP is not done as well.
07:28However, even though Mr. Modi's brand may have lost some of his luster,
07:33A, he remains Neta No. 1.
07:35And more crucially, the BJP is undoubtedly the dominant party of our times.
07:41And the machine of the BJP, the election machine, is still more or less intact.
07:46The ability to have this large cadre, the RSS, the resources,
07:51to build this sort of remorseless, relentless machine,
07:58that may have frayed at times along the edges, but the core is still intact.
08:04And that's why I believe even in the next decade,
08:07the BJP will remain the principal pole of Indian national politics.
08:12You know, of the 900 million-odd eligible voters this time, some 65.79% voted.
08:19That's about 590-odd million people who voted, of which 36.5%,
08:26which is 216 million, voted for the BJP.
08:29In a country of 1.4 billion and 900 million voters,
08:35260 million people, 16 million people voting is not a resounding mandate.
08:41And yet, here we are.
08:44Look, you know, it's the way the system is.
08:47You know, the system is effectively first-past-the-post.
08:50It's, you know, barring the odd election, the Congress, even in its pomp,
08:54never crossed 50% of the popular vote.
08:58By and large, the Congress also was a party which could win with, what, 40% plus vote.
09:04In many a general election.
09:08I think that the BJP, while you could argue,
09:11has still not become a pan-India party in the truest sense of the word,
09:15to the extent that there are states in the South
09:18where the BJP still hasn't made a major breakthrough,
09:20although they won their first-ever seat this time in Kerala.
09:25I would still say there is little doubt in my mind that the BJP is
09:30is the principal pole of Indian politics.
09:33And the opposition's big challenge over the next 10 years will remain,
09:38how do you define a cohesive narrative,
09:41build a strong organization and a strong leadership
09:44that can challenge the BJP on all three levels,
09:47organizational, ideological, and leadership.
09:51It is, despite the fact that, you know, they won, what, 37% of the vote,
09:55over the three elections, they have won, even in this election,
10:01more than the Congress has won in the last three elections.
10:03240 seats is what the BJP won this time,
10:06the Congress won 99 in this election,
10:0950-odd in 2019 and 40-odd in 2014.
10:13Add the three numbers, they don't even make up 240.
10:15So the BJP, frankly, even in this election,
10:19where they didn't get 272,
10:21still won more seats than the Congress has won in the last three elections.
10:24So there is a huge gap between the two principal parties even now.
10:29It's like when Don Bradman got out at 99, it was considered failure, right?
10:35Well, yes, but the interesting aspect is for the Congress party,
10:39Mayank, in this election, 99 was seen as a success.
10:43It's almost as if, you see, the Congress survived in 2024,
10:46they didn't revive.
10:47I think that distinction is important to make.
10:50This was an election where people were writing off the Congress
10:52and suggesting it would do even worse than last time.
10:56So for the Congress to do as well as they did,
10:59I think gave them a bit of a breather,
11:02but it's still way back from where they need to be.
11:09And therefore, for the Congress to see 2024 as a success
11:13would be a misconception, a misinterpretation.
11:16And I think that's why they paid a price in state elections
11:19in the second half of the year.
11:20They got carried away by what they saw in 2024,
11:23when the fact is they are still very much party number two to the BJP.
11:28Early on in your book, you issue not just Mia Kalpa,
11:31but Mia Maxima Kalpa as it were.
11:34You said you were swayed by the Modi ki guarantee drumbeat.
11:38Having followed his career so extensively
11:41and being familiar with his characteristic bombast,
11:45why did you fall for it?
11:46The image that he had created was so powerful
11:49and overwhelming in the last 10 years.
11:51It's dwarfed all other potential challenges.
11:55This is a machine, as I said, which is so resourceful.
11:58Everywhere you went, any corner of India,
12:00the buildup to this election, it was Modi ki guarantee.
12:05It was also a buildup, remember,
12:06in the backdrop of the Ram Temple Pran Pratishtha,
12:10where Modi was the sort of primary yajman.
12:13All of that gave the impression that there is Modi only.
12:16He was able to almost, for a while, invisibilize the opposition.
12:20And when that happens, you tend to get carried away.
12:23I mean, you tend to believe that this man is Superman
12:27and he can do anything.
12:29Someone like you is clearly astute
12:32and someone who understands the Gujarati mindset
12:35perhaps better than most journalists,
12:37except me, since I come from Ahmedabad.
12:40I would make that boast.
12:41But I'm saying I was a bit taken aback when I read that.
12:44The second one, and I applaud you for your candor,
12:48where you mentioned that maybe we should have listened
12:50more intently to the counter-narratives.
12:53It's interesting that twice you say that.
12:57It's very interesting also.
12:58On the 12th of May, 2024, I did a video blog
13:02where I mentioned that the BJP was not
13:04in the kind of comfortable position they thought they were in.
13:07This is a fortnight before the final phase of elections.
13:10I traveled a fair bit.
13:11And if you see the blog, most of what I've said in that blog,
13:14actually transpired.
13:15In fact, it was titled,
13:16Can the BJP touch 272?
13:19That the real challenge for the BJP now
13:20is even to reach halfway mark.
13:22Very few others were saying that at that moment.
13:25However, in the last week,
13:26once I saw what the exit posters were suggesting to me,
13:30I realized that maybe I hadn't traveled enough.
13:32Maybe there were wins I hadn't seen.
13:34But honestly, after Uttar Pradesh,
13:37traveling through Uttar Pradesh,
13:38I could see that there was a challenge mounting
13:41to this Modi dominance.
13:42But even so, I was unwilling to accept
13:45that the BJP would falter.
13:47Because, you know, the BJP's machine
13:50has developed this sense of invincibility
13:52about it over the last decade.
13:54And the Congress has seemingly been so weak in direct fights
13:57that you seem to believe the worst about the Congress
14:00and the best about the BJP.
14:02Now, you could argue that the Gujarati in me
14:04should have played safe.
14:05I'm born in Ahmedabad, although I'm a Maharashtrian.
14:08But the Gujarati in me
14:10seemed to be caught up in a bit of a bull run
14:15rather than being a bit of a bear
14:17and being a bit more cautious
14:19before sort of upping the Modi stock
14:21in that build up to the final phase.
14:24You know, interestingly,
14:24I was in Ahmedabad for about two and a half months
14:27in the run up to the elections.
14:28I didn't stay on for the elections.
14:30And Rajdeep, I was astonished
14:32at the kind of conversations
14:35that I had with all kinds of people
14:38and all of them almost uniformly,
14:40and they were all strong Modi supporters.
14:42All of them still said
14:43that he's not going to make it this time on his own.
14:46And they said, for us, it's him,
14:49but we know that he's in trouble.
14:51It was quite remarkable.
14:52Again, Ahmedabadi mindset kicked in at that point.
14:55Look, then I would say that the Gujarati mindset
14:58perhaps knew a bit more than I did,
15:00that they saw something that many of us didn't.
15:04Look, how many people would have thought
15:06that Narendra Modi in Varanasi
15:08would find his margin cut to 1,50,000 votes?
15:12Show me one person.
15:13It's very easy now in hindsight, of course,
15:15to say, look, so-and-so said that, you know,
15:18this is not a sort of Modi cantor.
15:20But at the time itself,
15:23I think because, as I said,
15:25the backdrop, the Ram Temple ceremony,
15:28the disarray in the opposition ranks,
15:30Mr. Modi's sort of personal popularity,
15:33which is still there, make no mistake.
15:35Mr. Modi is still a very popular leader.
15:38Given all that, it was difficult to believe
15:40that someone like that could actually
15:43suffer the kind of reversal of fortunes
15:46to an extent that he did eventually.
15:48I know he's still prime minister.
15:50It's a remarkable hat trick in many ways.
15:52But there were very few, barring one or two,
15:55who suggested that the BJP would go as low as 240.
15:59You know, this is an interesting segue for me.
16:02You make a fairly strong reference
16:05to the prime minister's absurd claim
16:07that he's non-biological,
16:08and hence ordained by God to do what he does,
16:12was followed by so many people as axiomatic.
16:15I mean, how do you see it as a journalist?
16:19And it didn't seem to affect him
16:21in terms of eventually coming back for a third term.
16:26Look, you know, I think the media
16:28has much to answer for.
16:29In fact, I look at chapter 14 in my book
16:33at the way the media gets managed.
16:35And I think part of the management of the media
16:37is to constantly play the drumbeat
16:40of how Mr. Modi is invincible.
16:41It almost becomes self-perpetuating
16:43when you constantly invisibilize the opposition,
16:46marginalize the opposition,
16:47question the opposition,
16:49and at the same time are cheerleading the government.
16:52Then, you know, you almost are part
16:54of this army of supporters
16:57that the prime minister has been able to rustle up.
16:59So I think, you know, a lot of hard questions
17:01need to be asked as a result of all we've seen
17:03in the last 12 months about the media itself,
17:07about our ability to predict electoral outcomes,
17:09about the nature of our profession
17:12in terms of not telling truth to power,
17:15but instead of that, questioning the opposition.
17:18All of these, I think, are relevant questions to ask.
17:21But who's going to really ask them now?
17:23Because, you know, the general,
17:26particularly after the BJP won Maharashtra and Haryana,
17:30it seems as if we are almost back to square one,
17:32where once again, the media, you know,
17:34seems to believe that Mr. Modi is here forever
17:37or the BJP is here forever.
17:39You know, in the studio habitat
17:41that you dwell in, in your professional life,
17:45where 800-pound anchor gorillas
17:47thumb their ideological chests,
17:49how do you navigate?
17:50Because at your heart,
17:51I think you are still a very detailed-oriented
17:54print journalist.
17:57You know, Mayank, I'm glad you said that.
18:00I think print is my first love.
18:04I do look at, I do like to sort of analyze
18:07and step back and introspect
18:09and write a column every fortnight.
18:11But I have seen in the last 10-20 years in particular,
18:18the media becoming an extension of the state almost,
18:22to a large extent.
18:23And the management of the media,
18:24particularly by this government,
18:26has been one of its big skills.
18:28Their ability to a mix of fear and carrot
18:30or carrot and stick, whatever you want to call it,
18:33has been to ensure that large sections
18:35of the media fall in line.
18:37Some may do it out of conviction.
18:38Many others do it out of convenience.
18:40Whether they do it out of conviction
18:42or out of convenience,
18:43I think it's deeply troubling
18:45if the media becomes this sort of,
18:49becomes an outrider for whoever is in power.
18:52In this case, of course, the BJP,
18:53because now that the BJP has learned
18:55the art of managing the media so astutely,
18:57any government in India,
18:59and we are seeing it even with some state governments,
19:01will do the same thing in browbeating,
19:03intimidating and getting the media to fall in line.
19:06So you have fewer and fewer stories
19:08that actually question the media,
19:10that puncture holes in government narratives,
19:12whether in the state or the center,
19:14and thereby, I think, do disservice to democracy.
19:17That means there is no redemption now.
19:20It's, you cannot reverse what has happened since 2014.
19:25That's one way of looking,
19:27that's, well, I, you know,
19:29my first book in this trilogy was 2014,
19:31the election that changed India.
19:33And I think it has changed India.
19:34And one of the areas it's changed
19:36is the way the media approaches politics
19:38and covering politics and politicians.
19:41You know, we were less awestruck
19:43or less willing to sort of genuflect
19:47in front of netas, I believe,
19:49in the manner that we've done in the last decade,
19:52where there's been a general sense to the media,
19:55at least the mainstream media,
19:56is expected to fall in line to ensure
19:59that an individual gets maximum coverage
20:03to a disproportionate extent.
20:07That is one of the changes that I've seen.
20:10And it is troubling.
20:11But I remain, you know, optimistic.
20:12In a country as diverse as India,
20:14and diversity is, I think, one of our great strengths,
20:17you will always see dissenting voices
20:20also rearing their head, man, every now and then.
20:23And those dissenting voices,
20:25I don't think can be silenced forever.
20:26Just last couple of things.
20:28I know you have to leave.
20:31We will perhaps someday do a bigger one.
20:33Oscar Wilde said, beauty needs no explanation.
20:37To some extent, it is true of celebrity as well.
20:41Whether you like it or not, it is built around you.
20:43I mean, when you show up in public,
20:46there is instant visual recognition.
20:48And as a print journalist, lifelong print journalist,
20:51I'm a bit baffled.
20:52How do you handle that?
20:55You know, the good news, of course,
20:56there is that because I've been a...
20:59I think I see myself as a lifelong journalist
21:01who started off in print.
21:03And therefore, I've seen the other side as well.
21:06You know, the biased staff reporter bylines.
21:08I've gone through all that.
21:09I've gone through the grind.
21:11Celebrityhood, if you want to use that word,
21:13just seemed to happen.
21:15It's not something, therefore,
21:17that defines my identity of who I am.
21:20You know, I saw celebrityhood
21:23when my father was a test cricketer,
21:25was celebrated after the 1971 tour.
21:28That, to my mind, is genuine celebrityhood.
21:32Journalists, frankly, we sparkle
21:37in the shadows of those who are in power.
21:42The fact that I come on television,
21:44obviously, the rise of television
21:46in the last 20 years, 30 years,
21:48has been one of the phenomenon of Indian media.
21:51The fact that we have these prime-time anchors
21:54who sort of become larger than life,
21:55not just in India,
21:56but where you are in the United States.
21:58You've had, over the years,
21:59larger-than-life anchors,
22:01particularly because now shows are defined
22:03by the anchor's persona.
22:05I think that's the big change.
22:06Earlier, the show was supreme, not the anchor.
22:08Now the anchor becomes larger than life
22:10and the show goes into the backdrop.
22:13These are things that have happened
22:14and I've seen them happen in front of me.
22:17I'm not complaining.
22:19I know where I come from.
22:20I know who I am.
22:22The day I start believing in my own...
22:26Look, I'm only as good as my platform.
22:28Tomorrow, if I don't have my platform
22:30of the 9 p.m. news,
22:31I move on to other things in my life.
22:33I will accept that as well.
22:35I will accept the fact that you will then
22:36move from celebrityhood to relative,
22:39I guess, hopefully, anonymity.
22:41But I'm happy that I can use my name
22:48to put my book forward, my ideas forward.
22:50I believe the book is more important
22:52than the author.
22:53The shows should be more important
22:54than the anchor.
22:56And to conclude, Rajdeep,
22:58it's slightly a broader philosophical observation.
23:01I've said it for over 30 years now.
23:03When the right wing of any political landscape
23:06anywhere in the world says something,
23:09I think media and everybody else
23:11absolutely must take it both literally
23:14and seriously because they 100% mean it.
23:17It's been shown in this country.
23:18It's been shown in Europe.
23:21Left liberals, people tend to be a bit wishy-washy
23:25and it's in the nature of the beast, I suppose.
23:28But I'm surprised that even here,
23:31when Trump says something,
23:33people don't take it literally and seriously
23:35when he absolutely means it.
23:38Do you think we have made a similar mistake in India?
23:41That's a brilliant question, I think, Mayank.
23:43I think that's a very, very strong point
23:46that you make, which deserves greater discussion.
23:51Whether the rise of these populist,
23:53strong-arm right-wing leaders
23:55has changed the nature of politics
23:58in different parts of the world.
23:59I mean, the world's oldest democracy
24:01and the world's largest democracy today
24:03are effectively ruled by
24:05strong right-wing populist leaders.
24:07Where does that leave certain democratic institutions?
24:10Because these individuals believe
24:13they're larger than the institutions they represent.
24:16And to my mind, that is, Mayank, deeply troubling.
24:19When institutions are undermined,
24:21they have significant long-term repercussions.
24:24I think the kind of politics that Trump has waged in America,
24:27the kind of politics that Narendra Modi has waged in India
24:30will have serious long-term repercussions for institutions,
24:34including, as we just discussed, the media.
24:36But we could look at other institutions,
24:38enforcement agencies, even the judiciary,
24:41the legislature, the attempt being made
24:43to reduce parliament to a notice board.
24:45I'm sure when Trump comes to power,
24:47he'll try and do the same with the U.S. Congress.
24:50Trump blows his way through any checks and balances.
24:55So I think this is something we need to reflect upon
24:59because voters clearly don't seem to mind.
25:01Voters seem okay with the idea
25:02that they have these individual strongmen.
25:04They don't seem to invest as much as they should
25:07in certain democratic values and traditions as voters.
25:12I find that troubling as, let's say,
25:15as someone who's a constitutionalist,
25:16if I may be allowed to use any ism,
25:19I say I'm a constitutionalism is what I believe in.
25:23And I worry as we enter our 75th year of the republic next month,
25:28we complete 75 years,
25:30I wonder whether the constitution and its values
25:33matter as much to voters who become more and more transactional.
25:36I think both in the U.S. and in India,
25:38voters are becoming more and more transactional.
25:40What is in it for me?
25:42And therefore, it's less about the finer values
25:46and ideological debates that I was hoping
25:49would shape the politics of the 21st century.
25:52Maybe I'm speaking like a liberal
25:54who feels completely sort of being badgered into a corner
26:00by the rise of this right-wing populism.
26:03But right-wing populism does worry me
26:05because it's constantly searching for an enemy figure.
26:08In India, they found it in minorities.
26:10In America, in immigrants.
26:12All of these are very, very troubling questions, Mayank.
26:14Absolutely.
26:15And I'm an in-your-face liberal.
26:17I have never stayed a step back from that.
26:20You know, about 30 years ago,
26:22K.R. Malkani, I'm sure you knew him,
26:24fine man, very interesting man.
26:28I called him a Hindu revisionist
26:30and he called me a pseudo-secularist
26:32and we both laughed.
26:33But you can no longer have that kind of conversation.
26:37Yes, absolutely.
26:39Well put.
26:39Those conversations are now missing.
26:41I travelled once with Malkani ji,
26:43interestingly, to Pakistan.
26:44We took a delegation across parties to Pakistan.
26:47He was part of it.
26:48I don't know whether that will ever happen today.
26:50But you're absolutely right.
26:52You could have a dialogue, a debate,
26:55a conversation with the likes of Mr. Malkani.
26:58I'm not sure you can have that kind of
26:59a healthy dialogue debate with the politicians of today.
27:03Wonderful.
27:04Thank you so much, Rajdeep.
27:06I really enjoyed our quick conversation.
27:08Hope someday we'll do a bigger one.