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Transcript
00:00:00A football Friday entering week number 18 around the National Football League
00:00:05It is our regular season finale weekend in the NFL
00:00:09So over these next two and a half hours or so
00:00:12You will get everything you need to know all the information all the potential
00:00:17Scenarios and the stakes for each and every individual matchup all 16 games that we have
00:00:23Starting tomorrow night with a couple of AFC North duels that will ultimately decide the division in
00:00:30playoff seating in the AFC in all 14 games on
00:00:35Sunday including the very final game of Sunday the very final game of the regular season in the National Football League
00:00:43It is game
00:00:46272 it is as good as you could ever hope or dream for in a regular season
00:00:52season finale because of what is on the line between the Lions and the Vikings in the Motor City on
00:00:59Sunday night Joe the winner of this game between Detroit and Minnesota will claim the NFC North
00:01:06Divisional crown the winner of this game between Detroit and Minnesota will be the number one seed in the NFC
00:01:14It is the first time in more than 30 years that the final game of the NFL regular season will determine a one seed
00:01:21In a conference. You got to go all the way back to the
00:01:251993 NFL campaign to find a game with similar stakes. It is the first time in NFL history
00:01:32We will see two teams that each have 14 wins
00:01:36Face off against one another in a regular season affair. Yes
00:01:41It is a longer regular season now than ever in the history of the NFL
00:01:45But still a historic matchup with so much at stake on Sunday night in Detroit
00:01:52So now let's talk the actual game itself in the numbers a two and a half point spread in favor of the Lions at home
00:01:59maybe the highest total we will see in the NFL in the last four or five seasons at
00:02:0556 and a half Joe, where do you begin your breakdown for Sunday night in the Motor City?
00:02:11Well, it's interesting Ben when you look at this Detroit team, right?
00:02:15Or let's say Minnesota who's won what nine straight games. They've covered their last four
00:02:21they're 14 and 2 on the season, but
00:02:24They last lost of the Lions in week seven and then they followed that up with a loss to the Rams a week later
00:02:32So they you can make the argument Ben that they lost the Lions game twice
00:02:37But it's been all wins since then and the Lions ironically enough the only two losses they have this year Ben came at home
00:02:45And they to find themselves 14 and 2 on the season
00:02:49They haven't lost since Buffalo came to town and beat them what three weeks ago here
00:02:55But they have overcome the injuries
00:02:58They love playing at home Dan Campbell is going to roll the dice and I think Stiles make fights here
00:03:04This is a absurd total of 56 and a half
00:03:08It was and it's finally started to come down bad because it was up over 57 a couple of days ago
00:03:14But finally people are starting to realize how unbelievably ridiculous a number that is even for these two teams here
00:03:22This is going to be a playoff game make no mistake about it. Neither of these two teams want to be the five seed
00:03:28Neither of these two teams like each other. There's revenge to factor in here
00:03:33Ultimately, I think this is going to come down. Well crazy enough right with a 56 and a half total Ben
00:03:41It's gonna be about the defense here
00:03:43I don't know that Brian Flores is best served blitzing the world at Jared Goff because of the weapons
00:03:50Jared Goff has access to and quite honestly his numbers against the blitz are
00:03:55Actually over the top good. So I do think there are gonna be some wrinkles thrown in this game
00:04:01I don't think the offenses are just gonna be scoring at will here even for a decimated
00:04:06Lions defense they know yeah, they've got to come up with some stops and they know this team better than anybody
00:04:13To me, it's only under in this game 56 and a half. I am NOT expecting a wild shootout
00:04:19This is going to be a playoff game atmosphere one in which I guess first one to 24 will win Ben as
00:04:27We were waiting for Monday Night Football
00:04:29After the Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers to set up this monumental matchup in game
00:04:35272 in the Motor City last weekend and week number
00:04:3917 the early projected line had Detroit as a two-and-a-half point favorite at home
00:04:45That's where it still stands in the over-under at 52 and a half
00:04:49But then we all saw the Lions go to Santa Clara on Monday
00:04:52Yeah
00:04:53Come back to win 40 to 34 in the line opened up at 57 and a hook for this individual game
00:05:01entering week 18
00:05:02Joe Detroit has allowed 31 points or greater in three of its last four games since those significant defensive injuries
00:05:11Started to really pile up. That's an average of 32 and a half points per game
00:05:15That's not great
00:05:16But the offense in the last four has scored at least 34 in all four of those games
00:05:22Averaging 37 and a half the Lions can outscore anybody and that even means if they allow
00:05:2930 plus points
00:05:31But that's not really how they want to win this football game the Vikings
00:05:36Meanwhile in where their season has been Joe
00:05:39They have been over in all three games
00:05:42Against those NFC North teams with double-digit victories both times against the Packers the opening game against Detroit in the Twin Cities
00:05:49back in week
00:05:5117 that was 31
00:05:5321 all three of those games to the over for the Vikings against their NFC North foes that have been good this year
00:06:00featured at least 52
00:06:02Points, but this is slightly unfamiliar
00:06:06Territory now for Minnesota who has not been an underdog because they have been matching
00:06:11Expectation since week number four there are three games this year as a dog
00:06:16of course weeks two through four
00:06:18They won outright the Lions still 10 and 5 against the spread as the favorite side this season
00:06:2448 and 22 ATS under Dan Campbell the best cover team in the National Football League
00:06:31And it does need to be stressed
00:06:33The winner is the one seed the winner is the champion of the NFC North the loser is the top
00:06:40Wildcard team in the five spot
00:06:42What might that mean Joe for these teams outlook entering the postseason as we look at their season numbers
00:06:50Yeah, well, it's it's a big difference and it's kind of crazy that it's come down to this the NFL
00:06:58Lucky in many aspects that they have a game like this, but don't forget Ben both these teams
00:07:04They're in the playoffs guys, so they're not really gonna lay it all out
00:07:09There's not that much on the line here Ben you got to be in it to win it and they're both in it
00:07:15And we'll discuss who that four seat could be about the NFC a little bit
00:07:21Live right here on the early line on sports grid
00:07:24It is a football Friday entering week number 18 around the National Football League
00:07:28So everything that is on the line and at stake for this final regular season weekend
00:07:35that means clinching a playoff spot winning a divisional crown or just
00:07:41Improving your seed line around your postseason picture and Joe
00:07:45We don't have to wait long for week 18 to get started tomorrow a doubleheader in the NFL
00:07:51But specifically the AFC North first up it is in Baltimore the Ravens a 19 and a half point favorite
00:07:59Against the Browns we'll talk about that game in a moment
00:08:02but it should be shared that if Baltimore wins that game outright as they are expected to do and
00:08:07Then some the Ravens clinch the AFC North. It is why the flock is a minus
00:08:1220,000 favorite to win the division at this moment
00:08:16which leads us into the Saturday night night cap to end out the doubleheader in the Steel City between Pittsburgh and
00:08:23Cincinnati you will see the Bengals as a slight road
00:08:27Favorite where it stands right now a point and a half in the spread minus 1 30 on the money line that total stands at
00:08:3448 and a half
00:08:36So here are the stakes if the Ravens do beat the Browns which is what we expect to get a 19 and a half point
00:08:43Favorite now Baltimore wins the AFC North. So what does Pittsburgh have to play for then?
00:08:49That would really favor Cincy not so fast
00:08:52Pittsburgh needs to win the game outright to clinch the five seed in the AFC and
00:08:57Understand it doesn't have to go to Baltimore right away to start off the postseason
00:09:02But rather a Houston team as the four seed that has not had that great of a season at least based on relative
00:09:09Expectation despite winning the AFC South for a second consecutive year the Bengals must win
00:09:16Tomorrow night to try to earn the 7c that last and final spot in the AFC playoff picture
00:09:22But since he needs some help
00:09:23They would need both a Broncos loss to the Chiefs reserves on
00:09:27Sunday afternoon and the Dolphins to go down on the road against the New York Jets in
00:09:33Met life so Joe understanding the stakes. What do you like tomorrow night in the Steel City?
00:09:39well, it's it's
00:09:41Fortunate that we get this game tomorrow night because yes in all likelihood the Ravens beat the Browns they lock up the division but
00:09:49There is a lot on the line here and at stake for Pittsburgh, especially at home here Ben
00:09:54They've already lost three in a row there. They lose this game
00:09:59That's four in a row not to mention now you got it. You're on a four-game losing streak
00:10:03You have no confidence in anything you seem to be doing offense or defensively and then you got to go play the Ravens
00:10:11Yeah, this is not a great situation here. Pittsburgh needs a big effort here
00:10:17so regardless of what happens in that first game, I
00:10:21Expect a big effort and I expect you ever all hands to be on deck here for the Steelers having said that
00:10:27It's not even Russell Wilson and he offense I'm worried about the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 90 points in the last three games
00:10:34But they've only scored 40, but that's another issue to talk about. I mean we're talking about a Pittsburgh team
00:10:40That's only two and four against the number in the last six
00:10:43But the thing that has stood out to me isn't Russell Wilson struggling
00:10:48Without pickings on the field. It's that this defense has allowed
00:10:5390 points in the last three games and what do you think Cincinnati is gonna do to you?
00:10:58We already saw in the first game Ben. They went toe-to-toe each team a million points
00:11:03They racked up 500 yards offense on the Cincinnati defense
00:11:07But let me ask you a question. What defense has been better as of late?
00:11:11It's Cincinnati's way better than what Pittsburgh is. So you're not racking up 500 yards offense again on Cincinnati
00:11:19This defense is in trouble for Pittsburgh and that's ultimately what may make them have to face the Ravens next week then
00:11:27If the Steelers were to lose in the Chargers are to win on Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas
00:11:33La very intently looking at what happens on Saturday in the AFC North
00:11:38The Steelers would be the sixth seed a road trip to the Charm City to a Ravens team where they played
00:11:44Just a couple of weeks ago and got beat bad by 17 points in Joe
00:11:49We know for Cincinnati
00:11:51It's been the offense that has kept them even in this spot despite in Owen three winless
00:11:57Start with a chance to even qualify for the postseason and Joe Burrow
00:12:02playing at an MVP level to 84 in a hook his passing yards prop two and a half passing touchdowns eight
00:12:11consecutive games now for Joey B, which is an NFL record by the way with at least
00:12:17250 passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns in
00:12:22The same game he will need to be sensational
00:12:26Once again on the road in Pittsburgh on Saturday night the first game of Saturday in
00:12:33Baltimore we break down next in the rest of the week 18 slate on the other side of the break on the early line
00:12:40Live right here on the early line. We welcome you to our number two on a football Friday. He is Geron Arie
00:12:46I am Ben Stevens
00:12:48We get you set for everything that you need over these next two hours
00:12:52Leading into week number 18 and the regular season finale around the National Football League
00:12:58Which starts tomorrow on a Saturday with two games that will decide the AFC North division
00:13:04Who might be the five seed in the AFC playoff picture and potentially that last and final wild card spot?
00:13:12Around the conference, but we'll get you set for every game our two tomorrow and our 14 on Sunday
00:13:19That will determine the end of the regular season the playoff picture in the National Football League and also
00:13:25Who's gonna have the number one overall pick in the NFL draft come late April Joe?
00:13:30basically every game has some significance to the overall picture of the NFL both in the postseason and
00:13:38beyond around the league
00:13:40yeah, it's a
00:13:42week 18 a lot of duds though Ben but a lot
00:13:46Ironically enough still to be determined here in the NFL and I guess this is what they wanted, right?
00:13:53They still wanted meaningful football in week 18. Well, we barely got it, but we got some of it
00:13:59Listen in a lot of the matchups
00:14:01We have at least one team that has some motivation or a mentality or need something to happen
00:14:07To earn a playoff spot or maybe earn a better draft position
00:14:11We'll talk all about that our first game of week 18 the final weekend in the regular season is in Baltimore
00:14:19Tomorrow afternoon set for a 4 30 p.m
00:14:21Eastern Time kick in the Charm City the Ravens and the Browns in a divisional duel if
00:14:27Baltimore wins as you can see they will claim the AFC North
00:14:32It is a 19 and a half point spread against the Cleveland Browns who are starting not Jameis Winston
00:14:40Not Dorian Thompson Robinson, but as of the latest reports
00:14:45Bailey's happy is going to get his first start in
00:14:48Cleveland total is 41 and a hook. This is one of the largest spreads
00:14:53We have seen in an NFL game in a very long time
00:14:57So let me ask you Joe a quick two-part question if you'll allow it
00:15:02Number one just to get it out of the way
00:15:04Is there any chance that Baltimore loses this game outright and then number two?
00:15:10How can the Ravens if at all cover this number?
00:15:15It's an outrageous number then I mean we're almost up to 20 points the only justification
00:15:23To have a line this big here Ben would be because the defense that the Ravens are playing is so terrible
00:15:30That they can't help but score points, but that's not the case with Cleveland
00:15:34Cleveland's defense was good enough to beat him the first go-around and the defense is certainly
00:15:41Decent. I mean their last four games the total points been 41 38 30 and 23
00:15:46this is not a defense that's rolling over by any stretch of the imagination here and
00:15:52Listen Baltimore all they need to do and Harbaugh knows this is win the game and move on
00:15:58So the idea that they're gonna keep their foot on the gas in this one when the game might be out of reach
00:16:04I'm not buying it here at all
00:16:07It's gotten to the point where now I got to take Cleveland as terrible as that is
00:16:13It's strictly a numbers game Ben. There is no way I can't take the points here with a Cleveland team who?
00:16:20Defensively, you don't think they know what the spread is here back
00:16:23You think that defense is gonna take kindly to thinking that what you're gonna blow us out here that the spread is almost 20
00:16:31I think Cleveland here. I don't think they win it, but I also don't think the Ravens
00:16:36It's do or die that the Ravens covered this spread. I think they just want the win
00:16:40I think they'll get it, but I don't think they're gonna get it by more than 19 and a half points
00:16:45Where this line stands right now, it would be the largest spread in favor of an NFL team and an NFL regular season game
00:16:52since
00:16:542021 again because of some of the uncertainty at least on the beautiful sports book that sponsors our show
00:17:00That being fan duel. There's no props out for this game as of this moment
00:17:06there's not even a first half line, which I think Joe would be a very
00:17:10Logical thought of how to approach this game the flock come out. They beat the Browns early in the opening two quarters
00:17:17Maybe then they rest Lamar Jackson midway through the third quarter, whatever it might be that line
00:17:23What would you think first half line and some other spots probably 13 and a half, right?
00:17:28It's not just like an even split of 19 and a Hulk
00:17:31I don't think it would be like ten and a half, but even so probably at least double digits, right?
00:17:36It was nine and a half Ben. So as of I believe
00:17:42Tuesday, but now it's it's closer to
00:17:46Eleven and a half even twelve and a half
00:17:49Yeah, I think it would be at least double digits
00:17:52It's not a bad way to look and again Baltimore needs this game a win
00:17:56Yep, and it's the AFC North championship for the Ravens in a home game. Who will that be against now?
00:18:03Let's get to Sunday Joe
00:18:05The Kansas City Chiefs have already locked up the number one overall seed in the AFC. They're good
00:18:11Andy Reid has told us he is playing the reserves for KC
00:18:15That means Corson Wentz is starting in a lot of the other backups on both sides of the football
00:18:22However for Denver in mile-high in their regular season finale
00:18:26The Broncos are playing everybody because with a victory
00:18:30Denver in year two under Sean Payton with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix
00:18:35Earns that final playoff berth in the AFC and this line has ballooned it open north of a touchdown
00:18:42Now it's north of double digits ten and a half points spread in favor of
00:18:47Denver Joe same kind of question. I asked you about the Baltimore Cleveland game step number one
00:18:53Does Denver win outright step number two? Well, the Broncos cover now is a double-digit favorite
00:19:00So we saw a similar situation four years ago
00:19:04Ben Kansas City had locked up the number one seed in the AFC West and it hosted I believe
00:19:11Vegas that the Raiders there to end the season my homes and everyone else
00:19:16Did not play in that game and the Raiders ended up winning 38 to
00:19:2121 so a similar scenario is shaping up here in this game. The difference is
00:19:28The Raiders. Well, we know they were eliminated at in that game four years ago
00:19:33Denver has to win in order to reach the playoffs like you said, so yeah
00:19:37This is a team that will lay it all out there because they realize there is no tomorrow. They still control their destiny
00:19:45So they will have an opportunity here to lay it all out. Make sure this games over quicker than later, right?
00:19:52That's what they want to do. They certainly have the ability to be able to do that against the backups
00:19:57But again, Ben you're asking
00:20:00Leaving the backups that achieves the roll over here at ten and a half. I
00:20:05They just need to win
00:20:07There's no style points
00:20:10There is not right and
00:20:12Broncos are up 24 to 10 in the fourth quarter and they are very comfortable or
00:20:182710 even right because we're talking a three-score game
00:20:22Becomes a two-score rather quickly and that additional look on the double-digit is a big big thing
00:20:30It's not just Corson Wentz in favor of Patrick Mahomes, right?
00:20:34It's the starting offensive line not playing the starting defensive look
00:20:38Everybody for the Chiefs are going to be a reserve, but are they ten and a half points worse than the Broncos?
00:20:45There's something in me Joe if I had to bet the game
00:20:48I'm not going to don't love a game where one team is supremely motivated and the other is already looking forward to their opening
00:20:55Divisional round game back inside arrowhead where the Chiefs once again will have home field advantage throughout the AFC
00:21:02Postseason if I had to bet it I'd probably take ten and a half with Carson Wentz and
00:21:07Casey and hope for a little bit of luster out of a guy that should have won an NFL MVP award
00:21:12Now about a decade ago in the NFL Joe will get more into this game on the other side
00:21:18But again, the Broncos win, that's it. They are in the final spot in the AFC postseason
00:21:24There'll be the seven seed in the AFC playoff picture if the Broncos lose it opens the door for the Bengals
00:21:32Who play tomorrow night?
00:21:33But most importantly for the Miami Dolphins who if Denver loses in the Dolphins win, it's not Joe burrow in the Bengals
00:21:41It's Miami and whoever is playing quarterback into the AFC
00:21:46Postseason the Dolphins a slight road favorite in MetLife. Might it also be the final NFL game for Aaron Rodgers?
00:21:54All
00:21:57Of the stakes for every single matchup in the regular season finale weekend around the NFL
00:22:04It is week number 18
00:22:06so again
00:22:07Denver in pole position to be the final playoff team into the AFC that number seven seed the last and final in the
00:22:14Postseason picture in that conference as a double-digit favorite now laying ten and a half at home against the Chiefs backups
00:22:22Denver just needs a win. They are in to the AFC playoff picture if for whatever reason
00:22:29Carson Wentz and Kansas City can play spoiler
00:22:33It opens the door for the Dolphins in the Bengals
00:22:36But Miami first and foremost with a victory and a Broncos loss
00:22:42The Dolphins would be the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture
00:22:46But as of this moment Joe
00:22:48It ain't gonna be easy for the Finns
00:22:51Reports say it is doubtful that to a tongue of Iloa is going to play for Miami
00:22:57Which would mean Tyler Huntley once again in MetLife in East Rutherford
00:23:02Against a Jets team that for the seventh time in the last 14 years
00:23:06They have missed the postseason are going to finish with five wins or less in a regular season
00:23:12Just dreadful football for gangrene might it be the final game that Aaron Rodgers plays in a Jets uniform?
00:23:19Might it be the final game that Aaron Rodgers plays in his National Football League career the Dolphins it ever so slight
00:23:28Favorite in MetLife will Miami at least win the football game to maybe give themselves a chance
00:23:34Playing at the same time as the Broncos in the Chiefs
00:23:38Ah
00:23:39Listen, it's it's clear. One of these teams has mailed it in
00:23:43And pretty much the players are saying so and another team has won
00:23:48What six of their last eight games to even have a shot to be alive in week 18?
00:23:55It's clear. The Dolphins have been playing better football and more motivated football and listen Snoop Huntley last week
00:24:04He had a hundred and fifteen and a half passer rating
00:24:07He ran for 52 yards and a touchdown and he did exactly what they were supposed to do beat
00:24:11The Cleveland Browns in less than ideal condition
00:24:15So I've got no problem thinking he's going to go ahead and beat a dysfunctional New York Jets team that has quite
00:24:23Honestly mailed it in and the players are saying so so the Dolphins have also owned this series
00:24:29They've won four straight 12 of the last 14
00:24:33It will be not the ideal weather in your neck of the woods there Ben on Sunday
00:24:38But the Jets team that's lost six of seven
00:24:42Was completely, you know quit last week in Buffalo
00:24:46No reason for us to think that Miami and Snoop Huntley can't go into MetLife and win this game
00:24:52Absolutely. So if it's to a tug-of-war great get the number right now. He has not been ruled out yet
00:24:58Although it does not seem likely that he plays in this game for Miami if it's Tyler Huntley good with that, too
00:25:0622 of 26
00:25:08225 and a touchdown against the Browns was Miami's leading rusher with 52 yards on the ground and a
00:25:16Score as well
00:25:17I believe this would be start number four of the year for Snoop Huntley
00:25:22With Miami and Mike McDaniel took you long enough, but maybe they finally understood
00:25:28How to organize an offensive scheme for Snoop and Joe as we know as long as Miami stays
00:25:36With a minus in front of its name and price to win the football game outright under Mike McDaniel
00:25:43They're pretty darn good at doing that as a favorite since McDaniel took over in South, Florida in
00:25:502022 the Dolphins when expected to win a game often do 23 and 7 straight up all they would need here
00:25:58All the odds are really
00:26:00Anticipating here are the playoff prices for the three teams still alive in that wild-card chase in the AFC again
00:26:08Denver ten and a half point favorite minus 650 to see the postseason and to be that seven seed the Dolphins plus
00:26:16680 the Bengals would need both a Broncos and a Dolphins loss to even have a chance
00:26:22But they will set the table in Saturday night's doubleheader
00:26:25So since he will not know its playoff outlook, they will be the first of three to go which is important
00:26:32Of course for the motivation
00:26:34Aspect now we go to the NFC in
00:26:37Specifically the NFC South the only division still at stake in that conference
00:26:43Entering this regulars of actually not NFC North game 272 my apologies, but still a big time
00:26:49weekend in the NFC
00:26:51South pretty simple for the Buccaneers Joe the Saints have already been eliminated
00:26:56They have not looked great the last two weeks with Spencer Rattler
00:27:00Under center the Buccaneers as a two touchdown favorite at home need a win and with a win
00:27:07The Bucs win the NFC South in one additional rankle because the Bucs need to win the game
00:27:13Just to earn a playoff spot and a division that could be really big for the playoff picture as a whole
00:27:21Because again the Buccaneers win
00:27:23They claim the NFC South the Buccaneers win in the Rams lose to the Seahawks at home on Sunday
00:27:30LA would fall to the four seed Tampa would be the three seed
00:27:35So Joe again with these big spreads having one side that needs it the other side that is already thinking about
00:27:422025 will the Bucs win outright first can Tampa cover as nearly a two touchdown favorite at home second
00:27:51Yes, absolutely they can cover this and they have covered this I mean over the last three games
00:27:57They're averaging a little over seven yards of play Ben and with a division title at stake
00:28:04They are there's not going to be any taking the foot off the gas here by Baker Mayfield and company plus
00:28:09They're facing a Saints team that has managed to score ten total points in the last two games here
00:28:14They put up 51 in the first game. They intercepted Spencer Rattler twice
00:28:20Todd balls in that defense. What do you think? They're a second crack at him
00:28:24What do you think they're gonna do in this one bad this they will leave nothing a chance in this one
00:28:29Expect them to keep their foot on the gas
00:28:32With Darren Rizzi, the Saints have been competitive
00:28:35until the final two weeks where they just have their limitations as
00:28:39We have seen with Spencer Rattler in the second half against the commanders
00:28:43Of course that game was decided by just a single point
00:28:47There is the team motivation
00:28:49Then there is the individual Mike Evans is in his 11th career season in the National Football League
00:28:55Every year with the Buccaneers
00:28:57He is 85 yards shy of his 11th consecutive season all 11 years in the National Football League with
00:29:051,000 receiving yards the Bucs need it and Mike Evans needs it and let me tell you
00:29:12Baker Mayfield and that offense they know it as well
00:29:16What else is at stake in the NFC net?
00:29:20so the NFC South in that divisional championship at stake on
00:29:24Sunday the Buccaneers now in pole position after Atlanta's overtime loss in the nation's capital or outside the nation's
00:29:32capital to end out week 17
00:29:34Sunday slate to the commanders the Buccaneers are a 13 and a half point favorite against the Saints as
00:29:40Joe said right before the break Todd Bowles in Tampa laying it all out there if the Bucs win
00:29:46That's it. They claim the NFC South for a fourth consecutive year
00:29:50But at the same time the Falcons will be holding on hope in a home game in the a
00:29:57Against the Carolina Panthers if for some reason the Buccaneers get beat as a two touchdown home favorite
00:30:04Atlanta just needs a victory over the Panthers to claim the NFC South and Joe with these games going off
00:30:11Simultaneously a lot of scoreboard watching but a lot of motivation at least to begin
00:30:16What's your approach to the Falcons in the Panthers in Atlanta on Sunday?
00:30:21Yeah, so this would be an interesting one a game in which Ben I automatically bet be over
00:30:28Early in the week because let's face it here neither defense even remotely close to being
00:30:36Competitive I think at this point and both offenses really starting to click here and fast-track and
00:30:44Individual matchup and and we've talked about it now all year long. We talked Mike Bluett and I even on
00:30:52Sundays for in-game live this division
00:30:55You'd be crazy sweating out unders when these teams play one another all year long
00:31:00Every one of these divisional affairs in the NFC South have been absolute shootouts, man
00:31:06I don't see how we didn't get one here, too
00:31:08It just feels like this is a game that's gonna land well into the 50s not the 40s and I'm okay with that
00:31:15I am absolutely looking at the over in this one
00:31:18Joe for the Dirty Birds a team that played to the over last week against the commanders
00:31:24It was the final touchdown in regulation from Michael Pennix jr
00:31:27To Kyle Pitts that pushed us to an over and then in OT
00:31:32Atlanta's only played six games to the over this year
00:31:35They've actually been a pretty stout under team for most of this season
00:31:39But four of those six overs in the five divisional games
00:31:43Atlanta has played this season including their first matchup against Carolina again unlikely for the Falcons
00:31:50they will win the NFC South and thus the year will be considered a
00:31:55Disaster or at least a failure, but Michael Pennix jr. Seems to be the quarterback of the future
00:32:00They'll figure out what happens with Kirk Cousins later
00:32:03I got a feeling the Panthers make that game a little bit pesky like you'll look up in the third quarter and the game will
00:32:10Be within at least a single possession now
00:32:13Let's get to the rest of the NFC in seeds at stake around the wild card spots
00:32:19both the commanders and the Packers have quenched a playoff berth, but here is what is on the line if
00:32:26Washington wins
00:32:27They're the sixth seed Green Bay even with a victory over Chicago
00:32:32Would be the seventh seed if the commanders lose in Dallas against the Cowboys
00:32:37Then Green Bay with a victory could beat the sixth seed that is important because the seventh seed would have to go
00:32:45Immediately to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles something Washington knows
00:32:50Well, although they did pull off the upset just a couple or no that game was in
00:32:56Landover I believe if I'm not mistaken a lot of things happening right now in the NFL
00:33:00But they know how difficult that game would be so Washington wants a game in Dallas on Sunday afternoon
00:33:08Joe I feel good about this one line early in the week was a flat field goal. I said
00:33:14The commanders need this game. They don't want to head to Philadelphia to start a playoff run
00:33:20I bet the commanders lay in three
00:33:22It's now six and a half. How much does Washington win this game by at the star on Sunday?
00:33:31Yeah, probably as much as they want to been at this point. I I could absolutely see
00:33:38The commanders and let's face it their head coach now man was the former DC in
00:33:45Dallas and there is absolutely no way that he wants to lose in front of his former boss there
00:33:51I cannot see that. I think he'll have the defense ready to make life miserable for Dallas
00:33:57There are an awful lot of incentive based
00:34:01Opportunities for players in this game that we should keep an eye on
00:34:05Mostly on the Washington side there with Austin Eckler comes to mind
00:34:12Dante Fowler comes to mind. There's a few guys with that need big games for big paychecks here, Ben
00:34:18I would look at Washington all day long in this one
00:34:22We'll have a pick from the Packers and the Bears later on in our pitch six
00:34:27But just to show you the number Green Bay a double-digit favorite at home in Lambeau
00:34:31Against a team that has lost double-digit games consecutively. That's Chicago 10 straight
00:34:37Mike Lewitt on a football Friday say left
00:34:41Live right here on the early line on SportsGrid
00:34:44It is a football Friday to set the stage for week number 18 around the National Football League the regular
00:34:51Season finale weekend, which means on a football Friday Mike fluid is here in
00:34:57Understanding of the stakes and what is on the line for each and every individual matchup all weekend long
00:35:03I'll go our doubleheader tomorrow on a Saturday 14 games on Sunday
00:35:08Big blue locked and loaded for a huge regular season finale weekend around the NFL
00:35:14Absolutely huge games obviously on the docket. We'll kick it off with the Sunday night or I'm sure but
00:35:21We also have some of those other games that you guys were just previewing that are a little difficult to
00:35:26Discern because of the amount of players that are out
00:35:29Yeah, it is difficult blue it from a motivation perspective almost like bowl season
00:35:34But before we even get to that a happy new year Mike blue it
00:35:37Thank you for being here with us to kick off 2025. This is the last official day
00:35:41I have heard that you can wish somebody a happy new year on January 3rd. All right, let's get set for this weekend
00:35:49We will get to game 272 in the Motor City in just a little bit
00:35:53But with all the stakes in full transparency German area and I ran just a little bit behind
00:35:58So let's go out to the NFC playoff picture outside of the one seed
00:36:03We talked about the NFC South the Buccaneers with a victory as a two touchdown favorite claim the division
00:36:10Against the Saints but because the Bucs need to win just to get into the playoffs and win the division
00:36:17It's all hands on deck for Tampa
00:36:21So with a win the NFC South and with a win
00:36:25The Bucs might be in prime position to be the three seed in the NFC
00:36:29Because the Rams don't need to win and as we have heard blue from Sean McVay who?
00:36:36Often if his starters don't need to play he doesn't send them out there
00:36:40The starters will not play for the Rams on Sunday as LA hosts
00:36:45Seattle six and a half points spread now in favor of
00:36:49The Seahawks that is important for the NFC
00:36:53Playoff position will Seattle cruise to a victory in Los Angeles with mostly Rams reserves in the game
00:37:01Yeah, so hadn't seen Jimmy G in a minute. You'll get a chance this Sunday
00:37:05obviously, there's been a lot of talk about player incentives to heard you guys discussing it earlier and
00:37:11Gino Smith has a couple of big ones as well. What gets really funky about these games is that I
00:37:17Could see Seattle jumping out to a lead right? In fact, you probably take a look at some Seattle first half overs
00:37:25But the second halves of the games where there's just no motivation could be a total mess
00:37:31That's what makes it very difficult to bet on these games. So I think you try to find different angles
00:37:38So give me Seattle first half in a game like this because I think they can come out playing for some pride
00:37:44It would be unique for them to miss the playoffs with ten wins and that's what they're lining up to do already eliminated
00:37:51But likely to win this game
00:37:53Sean McVeigh will coach to his dying breath
00:37:56but
00:37:57there's only so much you can do to your point Ben when a lot of
00:38:00Reserves are in the expansion of practice squads to in the NFL
00:38:06Since kovat allows for a greater shift in starters to be moved to
00:38:12Weekly rest period and bringing guys in off the practice squad
00:38:16So there's a little bit more flexibility there than there used to be and we're seeing it at play this week
00:38:24It's interesting blow it because Gino Smith has got a couple of very expensive
00:38:31Incentives coming his way this game
00:38:33He needs 186 passing yards for another two million dollar incentive
00:38:37And if he finishes over 69 and three-quarter percent his season completions
00:38:43He gets another two million. So he needs to be very efficient. Does he get over 106 yards?
00:38:49Are we betting Gino Smith props think knowing that well, he knows he's got four million dollars out on the table
00:38:55Yeah, I would be in on the Gino Smith props
00:38:59I think there's a lot of content being put out there this week about you should bet on every player that has
00:39:04Incentives and not everyone lines up with the game script. I think Seattle is gonna come out and play hard
00:39:09It's a first-year head coach. He wants to get to the 10 win mark
00:39:13So I think for them it makes sense for somebody like JK Dobbins that has a big incentive
00:39:17It makes sense for Mike Evans who's going to be a big part of the game plan already in a Bucs team
00:39:23That's gonna try to put up 50
00:39:25That makes a lot of sense some of the other ones
00:39:28Von Miller to get a sack. I don't know that's there's a lot of randomness when it comes to it
00:39:33I think you bet on those players that are big parts of the game plans that are motivated to play hard and or win
00:39:40From a spread perspective blue one of my favorite handicapping games of the weekend will be something we could see change in about
00:39:4724 hours the Chargers and the Raiders in Las Vegas depending on the results of
00:39:54Saturday if the Ravens beat the Browns, they're nearly a 20-point favorite Baltimore wins the AFC North
00:40:00Why am I mentioning that?
00:40:02Because then we go to Saturday night in the Steel City the Steelers might not be able to win the division
00:40:07But Pittsburgh is going to want to win
00:40:09against the Bengals to claim the five seed and head to Houston and not their divisional mates in
00:40:16Baltimore if Pittsburgh beat Cincy the Bengals also need the game to keep their playoff hopes alive
00:40:22Then the Chargers are kind of stuck. They're just going to be the sixth seed
00:40:26Currently LA is a four and a half point favorite against a Raiders team that has nothing to play for
00:40:32Las Vegas after winning two straight can't even have the number one overall pick anymore
00:40:38They've been eliminated from first overall pick contention as well fluid if the Chargers need this game
00:40:45I think this line balloons up to pass a touchdown if they can be the five seed you want to go to Houston?
00:40:52You don't want to go to the Charm City to take on the Ravens if the Chargers don't need this game
00:40:58Because Pittsburgh wins tomorrow night, then the Raiders could end up as a home favorite
00:41:04How do you approach betting this game right here right now?
00:41:07I think it's fair for you to call out that there is value to be had right now based on not knowing the results
00:41:14However, that real this game really can change dramatically. I was just talking about the Dobbins
00:41:20Incentive well Dobbins probably doesn't play if
00:41:24The Steelers win and the Chargers are locked in and by the way any coach that tells you they don't really care who they play
00:41:30In the first round lie
00:41:32Nobody wants to go to Baltimore and play Lamar in that first week. Not the Steelers not the Chargers. Nobody wants to do that. So
00:41:40Teams are supremely motivated on seating particularly in the AFC this year and Ben I would honestly right now
00:41:47I think this is a stay-away game
00:41:49There's too much riding on tomorrow night's result for me to go all-in on the Chargers
00:41:55To try to capture value right now. It can change too dramatically and Herbert and Dobbins and others wouldn't play
00:42:03So you don't can't think of Harbaugh I
00:42:07Just don't see Harbaugh as a guy that would just lay down and let the Raiders win
00:42:11What a third straight game here my I mean, where did they drop in the draft if the Raiders win like I mean
00:42:17All right, I get it Pierce you try it, you know, you're coaching for your your future here and your job, but my goodness
00:42:24I don't see Harbaugh laying down for anybody. Do you?
00:42:27that's a fair point Joe, but in that instance and let's take an under because
00:42:33Then you know, the Chargers are gonna play defense the Raiders are challenged to score points against anybody the 25 points
00:42:40They put up against the Saints. Come on. The Saints are yeah are as zero right now
00:42:43They're one of the worst teams in the league at the moment
00:42:45So I think you're playing for an under then and at forty and a half that makes a lot of sense to me
00:42:5220 to 17 something like that keeps you under
00:42:55Yeah. Yeah, it is a good look as well for a Chargers team
00:42:58That's played a lot of overs recently, but might get back to true Harbaugh
00:43:04Football blew it in the final minute of this segment before we go elsewhere around week 18
00:43:08Of course it all ends in Detroit game 272 between the Lions and the Vikings, you know the stakes
00:43:14Everybody knows the stakes. We know the stakes
00:43:17What do you make of the bets for this game the Lions a two and a half point favorite the total?
00:43:22astronomically high at 56 and a hook
00:43:24Yeah, a huge total
00:43:263129 a 31 point first half the last time they played so a lot of points to be had
00:43:32I think the first half total of 27 and a half is very interesting to me
00:43:37But we really think on the last game of the season and a Vikings defense that has stepped up pretty
00:43:43Consistently throughout the year is gonna allow this to be a 60 point total. I have some I have a lot of internal debate about it
00:43:51It's just at the first half total of 27 and a half. Both teams are so the first half. I like it
00:43:57Think that's a very good look. We'll continue to go around week 18
00:44:01Live right here on this football Friday on the early line on sports grid game
00:44:05272 the regular season finale in the truest form on Sunday night in Detroit again the Lions two and a half point favorite total
00:44:13Stands at 56 and a hook blew it. You know the stakes
00:44:16We know the stakes everybody does by now
00:44:19But just a reminder winner of this game claims the NFC North and the number one overall seed in the conference
00:44:25the loser also in to the postseason
00:44:28But would have to go on the road in the opening round as the five seed the top wild-card spot in that conference
00:44:35Playoff picture and blew it there has been some debate who that impacts more
00:44:41Lions all the road throughout the postseason or trying to go somewhere
00:44:45The Lions have never been a Super Bowl with home field advantage through the Motor City
00:44:50Could the Vikings as a road team truly be a conference contender in the NFC?
00:44:56So as we look at the outlook for both Detroit and Minnesota
00:45:00What do you make of these prices for the future the postseason and beyond for the Lions and Vikings entering week 18?
00:45:08I think it's indicative of something we talked about
00:45:11Consistently on these Friday shows and Joe and I talked about on Sundays on in-game live
00:45:17There's still a bias against the Vikings and I think it's because of Sam Darnold
00:45:21I don't think people are paying attention to how good they've been the style in which they win games and
00:45:27It's right there in front of you
00:45:29This also doesn't take into account that I think the Lions are awesome and they're probably the most fun team to watch
00:45:35Offensively and they have 12 players on defense that have hit IR they might get Anzalone back on Sunday night
00:45:41That's a might not
00:45:42Definitely and it's not taking into account all of these injuries that factor into teams not being able to make
00:45:48Super Bowl runs when the Chiefs got into the Super Bowl against the Bucs people ignore the offensive line injuries and it impacted the game
00:45:56Significantly last year when the Niners lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs they had lost multiple defensive players
00:46:03Health-wise throughout the end of the season and into the playoffs
00:46:06You have to factor it in when you're talking about teams chances to win the Super Bowl for Detroit fans
00:46:11I hope you finally win one and to Vikings fans your
00:46:16History in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl as far worse than even the Lions is so I'm praying for you as well
00:46:23But right now I think the Vikings are a better team to make a Super Bowl run than the Lions
00:46:29Hmm
00:46:30Bro, as I'm as you're talking here
00:46:33I'm watching more and more money come in on your Pittsburgh Steelers here down to minus one and a half minus one
00:46:40Is part of that money coming from you my friend. Are you backing your Steelers here at home as a dog?
00:46:48Well, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers at home
00:46:51Our money right? We know that they are also a team that in the last three weeks and scored
00:46:581017 and 13 points offensively. It is not just about George Pickens. It's about their
00:47:04Long-standing inability in short yardage situation and in the red zone to convert and that is their fatal flaw
00:47:11We talked about it when they were 10 and 3 it was looking good after they beat Cincinnati
00:47:1644 to 38 but it has fallen apart since they need to find some they need to find a way back to
00:47:23Converting now the Bengals defense is a pretty soft landing
00:47:27And I think a lot of people are expecting big points in this one like there were in the last game
00:47:32But I'd imagine the Steelers try to take the air out of the ball in this one. I think they play a close game
00:47:37I have to bet on my Steelers here
00:47:40And I know that Cincinnati is going to be a dogfight like they were in the last game
00:47:44The Steelers had opportunities to put the Bengals away the last time they played and they really didn't until the very end of the game
00:47:50But I'm gonna go with the Steelers here as a home dog if the offensive problems aren't fixed
00:47:57You'll know by halftime that their season is done
00:48:00The Steelers won
00:48:04Yeah
00:48:05Won their first of six won their six of their first seven with Russell Wilson under center
00:48:11But we all knew the back half of this schedule for the Steelers is where it got really difficult
00:48:16Pittsburgh enters the regular season finale losing three straight Pittsburgh needs to win even if Baltimore wins
00:48:23Before them tomorrow in claims the AFC North to be the five seed that is ultra important since he needs to win
00:48:30To keep their playoff hopes alive now
00:48:33Let's get to Sunday and some other games around the NFL the Giants
00:48:38Kind of idiotically beat the Colts last week still want to win football games
00:48:43We understand that guys are professionals
00:48:45But because of it New York no longer controls the destiny of the number one overall pick the Giants still in the running
00:48:52But it looks unlikely the Eagles have locked up the two-seed
00:48:55Would we see a chase for history at a Saquon Barkley on Sunday?
00:49:00We heard earlier this week that will not be the case the starters resting for Philadelphia and yet fluent
00:49:07The birds remain a full field goal favorite at home against the G man. How do you see the game playing out?
00:49:13It's an interesting one likely to get Tanner McKee under center after Kenny Pickett was hurt in relief of Jalen Hurts
00:49:21The other day took a pretty nasty shot did pick it
00:49:25I am not as down on the Giants for winning that game Joe and I watched every second of it
00:49:31That was more Colts failure than Giants victory and Locke actually had a historic game
00:49:37Giants fans I get why they're fired up
00:49:39but there's no guarantee that should or Sanders or Cam Ward are gonna fix your problems or many other problems with the roster and
00:49:45If they really need one of those quarterbacks and fall in love with them
00:49:48They can trade up and and make make it the player of the future. But as far as this game is concerned
00:49:54I think the reason it stays this way is because of the style in which Philly plays
00:49:57They can run the ball regardless of who's back there
00:50:01It'll be a lot of Kenneth gain
00:50:02Well, and I think he would have the ability to have a pretty big game if there's gain
00:50:06Well props that get released at some point. So I understand why this is a tight spread
00:50:12That's definitely the best game that the Giants played all season was the other day
00:50:16And I don't know that a team like that has it in them to go back to back
00:50:22But I still feel uncomfortable with Philly laying the three
00:50:25I think because it's a flat three if you get it to three and a half
00:50:28I probably end up taking the Giants but wouldn't be surprised if Philly escapes or the field goal victory playing a lot of reserves
00:50:36And as it stands right now blue we look at one other game in New England
00:50:41Sorry, Joe the Patriots at home hosting the Buffalo Bills
00:50:45We expect to see Josh Allen early on Sunday to preserve his
00:50:50114 consecutive start streak, but that might be it if the Patriots lose
00:50:55That's it New England claims the number one overall pick what's the best bet at Foxboro I
00:51:01Would not bet on the Patriots at all right now to make rumors about being gone
00:51:07I think you have to be done with it
00:51:08The Bills had nothing to play for a couple of years ago when Miami did and they put a 50. Yeah on that kind of
00:51:15Yeah, listen, I think Buffalo probably hit the right side still in New England more on this football Friday net
00:51:22Live right here on the early line
00:51:24We continue to break down every single angle with all the states of week number 18 Mike Lewin here for a third
00:51:31consecutive segment now blue
00:51:33This is a really intriguing game in my estimation in Tennessee not because of its significance or implications
00:51:40Nothing truly is at stake
00:51:43Houston is locked into the four seed but trying to play better football
00:51:46I guess you could say
00:51:48Entering the postseason the Titans could be the one seed if the Patriots lose at home to the Bills and Tennessee
00:51:56Also loses that football game a lot of teams that are looking to lose
00:52:00But Tennessee is a slight favorite to me go Ryan's this week though
00:52:04of course head coach of the Texans said
00:52:08Everybody will be prepared to play because the Texans despite winning the AFC South for a second consecutive year
00:52:15I don't think you could call it blue the best brand of football
00:52:18We have seen Houston or CJ Stroud play in the last two seasons
00:52:23So knowing D'Amico Ryan's is saying everybody might be out there
00:52:28Should the Texans be catching a point and a half or any bit of sense on that money line?
00:52:35well, I think everything you said is right and it would make some sense if they went out there for a half and tried to
00:52:43Get the offense on the same page because the offense hasn't scored a point in a couple of weeks, right?
00:52:46they got shut out of Christmas and
00:52:49It's just a bad scene for them right now
00:52:53generally
00:52:55But I don't also believe D'Amico Ryan's when he says that I think he'll rest guys as he feels the need to and I would
00:53:03Not expect any of those guys to play the full game
00:53:06But right we'll have to see as the game goes that being said I pinch hit for you last week
00:53:12Ben and your pick six and my money line underdog was the Titans and they couldn't get it done
00:53:18Joe and I watch this team all year and
00:53:21You can pick different teams at different points of the year at who's worse than who and the Giants have looked the worst
00:53:28Tennessee consistently plays really bad football
00:53:32constant penalties
00:53:34Doesn't convert first downs really bad on third down
00:53:38I just don't I they're not a team that I can bet on whether they're getting a point-and-a-half
00:53:44Laying a point-and-a-half. I think the Texans just overall I
00:53:49Can do enough defensively to limit the Titans. This could be a super low scoring game. I'm talking like a
00:53:561310 type of game so I'm taking the under and I would not put on the Titans here
00:54:01The
00:54:03Funny part is no team has ever lost 14 or more games against the spread in a single season
00:54:10Let's go Titans. Yeah, they go Titans 2 and 14 this year. That could be absolutely
00:54:17Historic Titans, that's what you're looking for there
00:54:20Alright, let's go big picture here blew it as far as if I keep hearing this
00:54:25We know that the bills and Josh Allen he's gonna start the game he's gonna keep that Ironman streak going
00:54:33But what are we thinking here for MVP?
00:54:36Has he done enough the market at minus 350 certainly seems to think so
00:54:40But I am amazed at the amount of people running to to take Lamar Jackson at this plus 230. What are you thinking?
00:54:49You
00:54:50Can make a case for Lamar a really good one
00:54:53Obviously having a better year this year statistically than he was last year certainly in terms of efficiency
00:54:59But that's not what this is about at this stage a story has been told
00:55:04I think the hay is in the barn on this one and I don't think that trying to take Lamar
00:55:10I think taking Lamar at plus 230 right now is
00:55:13Interesting in
00:55:16Discussion, but I think it's a waste. I think Allen already has the MVP
00:55:20They're gonna be 13 and 3 maybe 14 and 3 a better record than Baltimore. And I think that's what it's about
00:55:26It's not about who's the best player and who was statistically it's combining that with the story
00:55:32That's been told and it's that the bills were not expected to be this good this year and Allen has been awesome
00:55:37He's put up historic rushing touchdown numbers and everything else
00:55:41Yeah, absolutely, so blue Josh Allen is not thrown for
00:55:454,800 yards and 45 touchdowns perhaps
00:55:47But he has also made history with his individual performances and where Buffalo has been
00:55:53This season quickly final 40 seconds of this segment the Super Bowl 59 odds entering week number
00:56:0118 is there a bet or a team that you would wager on entering the regular season finales? I
00:56:08Think cheese Packers is my preseason call. I've obviously lost some faith in the Packers
00:56:14I profess my respect for the Vikings
00:56:17So I think the Vikings at 8 to 1 are an interesting shot the way they play on
00:56:22Both sides of the ball how well coached they are is an interesting a little bit of a long shot
00:56:28But don't count out the bills this year. I think they have a real shot to knock off the Chiefs
00:56:34We'll see if that is to be the case my fluid have a wonderful weekend. We'll see you on Sunday our three up next
00:56:42We welcome you to our number three our third and final on this football Friday
00:56:47Entering the final weekend of the National Football League regular season
00:56:51It is week number 18 so much to get to here in this third and final hour
00:56:57Including our pick six for the last time in the NFL
00:57:02Regular season the best bets and picks and previews that we have for the regular season finales all around the National Football League
00:57:10He is Joe Ranieri. I am Ben Stevens. We bring you up until 11 a.m
00:57:14Eastern time with all the stakes all that is on the line playoff bids playoff spots
00:57:20divisional championships, maybe even draft positions as well around the National Football League
00:57:27I
00:57:28Cannot wait here Ben for what is the and it's hard to believe here 18 weeks now about to be in the books in the NFL
00:57:36Postseason just around the corner. And of course now it gets real interesting in the lead-up to March Madness. So welcome
00:57:442025
00:57:46Yes, indeed third day of a new year and a great first weekend of NFL action in
00:57:532025 that is the final of the regular season and Joe again
00:57:57It does bear repeating
00:57:58there is no better way that you could possibly dream of to end out a regular season with a game that is as
00:58:05Significant with as many important stakes and implications as we will see on Sunday night in game
00:58:12272 between the Lions and the Vikings
00:58:1514 and 2 Detroit
00:58:1714 and 2 Minnesota
00:58:19divisional foes
00:58:20battling in one game for the NFC North crown in the number one overall seed in the
00:58:28NFC to have home field advantage throughout the entirety of a postseason for a Lions team hoping to make
00:58:35History to become the first ever Detroit team to play in a Super Bowl
00:58:40Let alone win a Lombardi trophy and for a Vikings team that is so over exceeded
00:58:47Expectation to continue to prove people wrong
00:58:50Improve they are a true conference and Super Bowl contender again as good as it gets
00:58:56But how are the people seeing the actual game and the football result?
00:59:01Itself we'll find out together to start this third and final hour and fade the public
00:59:11The
00:59:14Lions a two-and-a-half point home favorite the largest total we have seen since
00:59:192019 as it currently stands at 56 and a half a lot of offense expected despite the stakes of
00:59:27Sunday night in game number
00:59:29272 the last and final of the 2024 NFL regular season so at SportsGrid on Twitter
00:59:36What is the best bet for Sunday night the Lions as a slight home favorite less than a field goal the Vikings
00:59:43catching two and a half points the over of that total of 56 and a hook or the under of
00:59:50That number a couple of things Joe stand out to me both the winning bet
00:59:5556 and a half both most people expecting points
00:59:59Most people expecting the Lions to cover as a short two and a half point home favorite
01:00:04but also the least amount of votes in this poll that would be the under of
01:00:1056 and a half only seven point four percent as I see those live results right here
01:00:16Right now Joe to me that should say something about the offense
01:00:22Expected because even 56 points keeps us under our total for game 272
01:00:29Yeah, and it's one of those spots here Ben where?
01:00:32If this is a true
01:00:35contrarian situation here where the public we know they're gonna love the over here Ben all day long just like the poll says
01:00:43But if you're going contrarian when everyone's running left
01:00:47You got to run right then and that tells me the under is the play in this game
01:00:5456 and a half is a huge number and I get both of these teams
01:00:59Certainly have put up enough points to warrant this kind of look but it's all things being equal here
01:01:07This is they do have two defenses will be playing in this game here
01:01:11That have already played against one another Ben and both these teams already are in the playoff
01:01:17So sure, it would be great to get the buy-in to one seed, but when push comes to shove
01:01:23I'm not sure they're opening up the entire playbook here for this game, Ben
01:01:28I think this game is going to be closer than people anticipate
01:01:32But I also think it's a first one to 24 or 27 points wins
01:01:37Which will give us plenty enough room for an under in this one
01:01:41The first time these two teams played back in week number seven the game was in Minneapolis
01:01:46It was the only time this year the Lions were booked as a dog just a point and a half
01:01:51Detroit won outright in a shootout
01:01:543129 which of course is 60 total points would be over this total the Vikings have played to an over in all three games
01:02:02Against the double-digit win teams within the NFC North that first game against the Lions each of its two this year against Green Bay
01:02:10including last week each of those three games featuring
01:02:1452 points one of the lines that will stand out to me the most this year
01:02:19Week number one for Sam Darnold and Minnesota on the road in MetLife just a point and a half favorite
01:02:26Against the New York Giants, Minnesota, of course won that game comfortably to start undefeated a perfect five and oh
01:02:33but from weeks two to four when the odds really had not caught up yet and
01:02:38Understandably so to this Vikings team and just how good Minnesota would be now with 14 wins
01:02:44The Vikes were an underdog weeks two through four they went outright as an underdog
01:02:49Minnesota has not got any points since the opening month of this NFL season in Detroit is
01:02:57Still one of the best cover teams in the NFL
01:02:59In fact the best cover team in the National Football League under Dan Campbell 48 and 22 against the spread
01:03:06That's a cover percentage of sixty eight point six
01:03:09They are the only NFL team that is covered in more than 62 percent of its games since the start of that 2021
01:03:17Campaign in this year as a favorite 10 and 5 against the spread something. We haven't discussed Joe again
01:03:2556 and a half is the total the expected outcome is probably not
01:03:301714 could it be 28 24 north of 50 but still under
01:03:36Absolutely, so and if we get to 50 or even the high 40s
01:03:40We know the offensive stars will be on display Sam Donald to 83 and a half his passing yards prop
01:03:48Justin Jefferson who has been elite this year 91 and a hook you see the number for Jordan Addison as well
01:03:55271 and a half for Jared Goff Jameer Gibbs 87 and a half on the ground. I'm in Ross st
01:04:00Brown 75 and a hook it should be noted Aaron Jones does not have a listed number at least on that board
01:04:07Of course a quad contusion that he suffered in the matchup against Green Bay this past Sunday
01:04:14And I will say this
01:04:16Guess who is a complete full participant at practice this week and is going to play in this game
01:04:24Alex and Zalone and Jack Campbell the two starting linebackers for Detroit will be back for this game against
01:04:32Minnesota so they're starting to get a little healthier and don't forget they already beat, Minnesota
01:04:38Without Hutchinson. He was already out for the season when they played them the first go around now
01:04:44They're getting some reinforcements in the linebacking spot. They're captain out there. I yeah, I
01:04:51Would look to fade Sam Darnold's here and I'd also look to fade
01:04:55One of the other Jefferson or Addison pick your poison here. I tend to think they'll let anybody but Justin Jefferson beat him in this one
01:05:04Yeah, but even if you don't let Justin Jefferson beat you getting close to 90 has not been an issue for J
01:05:10Jet this year both of the quarterbacks, by the way
01:05:14Have a passing touchdown number of a one-and-a-half and they're both juiced to the over at minus 200 or greater
01:05:21Just make it two and a half and let us bet that somebody's going to throw three
01:05:25Get out of town for each quarterback to throw three by the way
01:05:30Jerry golf is plus 178 Sammy D is plus
01:05:35188 again
01:05:36Those are the stakes the Lions enter week 18 a two-to-one favorite to win the NFC
01:05:41Minnesota third best price behind both Detroit and Philly at plus
01:05:46360 winner wins the NFC North and the one seed in the NFC the loser the top wild-card team in that
01:05:54Five spot plenty more around week 18 up next as we get you set for week
01:05:59Number 18 around the National Football League. There are games with stakes
01:06:03I would say 14 of 16 whether it's a playoff spot a playoff position
01:06:08That being seed line or the NFL draft and there are some
01:06:12That lack a little bit of those things on the line
01:06:16For this regular season finale weekend a game that we showed you the odds
01:06:20But it didn't really break down that game is at Lambeau Field the Packers a ten and a half point favorite against a team that
01:06:27Has lost ten
01:06:29consecutive games in
01:06:31Chicago again Green Bay with a win still needs some help if the
01:06:36Commanders beat the Cowboys on Sunday at the star Washington a six and a half point road favorite Green Bay pretty locked into that
01:06:44seven spot
01:06:45Gin in pole position to claim the six seed if the commanders lose and the Packers handle the Bears as the odds
01:06:52Expect then Green Bay could jump up to the sixth spot
01:06:55Which is important because you would go on the road to the three seed
01:07:00Which is either the Bucs or the Rams and not the seventh seed on the road to the two seed
01:07:05Which we know is
01:07:07Philadelphia, but Joe, it's still a double-digit spread. How do you approach the rivalry renewed at Lambeau Field? Oh, I don't know about
01:07:15Rivalry renewed here. It really doesn't make a difference who the quarterback is for Green Bay
01:07:21They apparently still own the Chicago Bears now 11 straight games
01:07:26That they have lost to the Packers
01:07:29By the way in those games against the number and the one lone cover giving credit up and came earlier this
01:07:36This year as Green Bay ended up winning on a blocked field goal. If you remember that disaster
01:07:43and
01:07:44Matt LaFleur stated that the team's all the team's healthy starters will play in this game
01:07:51As they can secure like you said the number six seed
01:07:54And if the commanders somehow lose which is always a possibility here
01:07:59Well, that's a much easier first round trip to play the Rams or the Bucs instead of having to go to the Eagles
01:08:05So I anticipate Green Bay going full board here and there is nothing redeeming about the Chicago team
01:08:12They're not well coached
01:08:14They are all waiting for what's gonna happen in the offseason here
01:08:19Yeah, I to me this is all about Green Bay handling their business in a big way and getting the bad taste out of their
01:08:26Mouth against with that game against Minnesota that they got actually beat pretty easily in
01:08:33So expect the bounce back here
01:08:35Again, there will be some live scoreboard watching on Sunday
01:08:39The Packers should come out with their heads on fire as you would expect some burnt cheese at Lambeau to hammer the Chicago
01:08:47Bears early and often on
01:08:50Sunday, but if the Packers see the commanders up by 14 points late in the second half might we see some reserves against the Bears?
01:08:57Maybe so keep an eye on the live odds board for Sunday
01:09:01And of course German airy and Mike fluid will have you set on NFL football in-game live game day on Sunday afternoon
01:09:08Joe only two of 16 total games to end out the regular season in the NFL
01:09:13We're neither team facing off against the other has anything at stake for a playoff birth a
01:09:20Playoff seed line or anything really to do with the NFL draft
01:09:24Obviously their draft position can change but at least in the running for a number one
01:09:29overall pick that includes an NFC West game to end out the year out in the desert between the Cardinals and
01:09:36The 49ers a disastrous season for San Francisco the guy on your left Brock Purdy
01:09:41Still dealing with some elbow issues not going to play in the regular season finale
01:09:47That is meaningless Joshua down Dobbs, excuse me is going to make the start for the 49ers the Cardinals
01:09:54Not much left either a four and a half point favorite though at home against San Francisco Joe with neither team
01:10:01Having much motivation. How do you even begin to handicap this football game?
01:10:07Well, I mean listen, it's it's been a terrible second half to the season for the Cardinals
01:10:13But in all honestly, it's always a terrible December for Kyler Murray
01:10:18He is one of the worst quarterbacks when the calendar turns to December in January
01:10:24In the NFL his record is awful. In fact, they're one in five here in their last six games this season
01:10:32He is 9 and 19 in the month of December
01:10:36January in his career. So this is not the time that you want to back
01:10:42Arizona and Kyler Murray, however
01:10:44Yeah, this gives them this opportunity with their you know with their new head coach
01:10:50That gives them an opportunity to end the season on a winning note
01:10:55The 49ers are a team been there done that they just can't wait to get off the field and head to
01:11:03Rehab and get everyone ready for next year. I would lean the Cardinals in this one
01:11:08They obviously I think would much rather end the season on a winning note
01:11:12I don't think the 49ers care one way or the other
01:11:15Yeah, when listen, I thought this game might be Brock Purdy
01:11:18I was interested in San Francisco because what really does Arizona have at stake either right now?
01:11:24I would agree with Joe
01:11:25I think it's a Cardinals number if you really want to get involved another one in the AFC South
01:11:31where again
01:11:32No stakes a disastrous season for Indianapolis in many questions to be answered about work ethic in this
01:11:39Organization and the future at the quarterback spot with Anthony Richardson about to embark on year number three an uneasy offseason
01:11:47I would say Joe in Indy and really the same for Jacksonville
01:11:51But we haven't heard a lot about a Jags team that we thought maybe back in week six
01:11:55They would fire Doug Peterson maybe week 11 week 16 now here in week 18, he's still the head coach
01:12:02We'll see what happens on Black Monday a day where head coaches often lose their roles
01:12:08But Joe, there's a thought that maybe Jacksonville runs it back with Doug Peterson and a healthy Trevor Lawrence
01:12:14Entering 2025 four and a half point spread in favor of the Colts any value in this game
01:12:21I'm thinking here that this feels like and I know it's a tough look here
01:12:27But isn't this an under spot here?
01:12:30I mean Indy last week
01:12:33There were guys making business decisions on the defensive side of the ball all over the place
01:12:38There last week here and I know back in Mac Jones ain't a great thing here
01:12:44But my goodness, it feels like Jacksonville has been giving effort even though the season has been over
01:12:50I don't know that I'm gonna get that with Indy here too many too many guys with the ole
01:12:56Last week on the defensive side for me to trust the Colts to me. This is all about Jacksonville here
01:13:03Joe this game feels like bowl season in a way
01:13:06We can't eat in spots feels like ball season if you have an understanding of motivation you handicap early
01:13:12I jumped on the Jags getting five and a half earlier this week. We're on the early lineup now

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