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00:00We begin in Houston, the Texans host the Chargers. Quickly, Donnie, if I can get you to give me the roundup that you're seeing, spread and total-wise, across your odds board there. What are we seeing here for this game?
00:12We're still bouncing between the 3s and the 2.5s, but those 3s aren't true 3s anymore. We're talking about half-jews, minus 102s, minus 105s in that instance, and then the juice numbers are the minus 2.5s at 120, 115, and 110 across the board at some outlets.
00:25Also, the total that we know opened up around that 44.5. I'm surprised. We're down to 41.5 at most outlets, 42s out here, so I'm pretty surprised at that one.
00:33Yeah, it's sort of in line, the more I think about it, because we talked about eight home games for Houston. They've played some unders this year. I took the eight games that they have played at home.
00:44They've totaled an average total points of 41.8 points per game, so maybe just some people thinking that three points of value that, in terms of banging the under, we're right where we should be.
00:56You have two different teams. You have L.A. hitting on all cylinders. They've won three straight by an average margin of victory of 18 points per game.
01:04They're doing it offensively, have scored over 30 points in each one of those victories. We talk about Justin Herbert doing it through the air, 3-0-3, in terms of the passing attack over the last three weeks.
01:15I need to see C.J. Stroud step up. I know the books are heavily getting a lot of L.A. money here. I don't care. I'm still on Houston. I know it's the underdog. I know not a lot of people are on it.
01:28But I'm expecting a bounce-back situation. They have won six games. They've lost only two at home. They play much better, I believe, at home than they do on the road.
01:37I think it's a bounce-back for C.J. and Nico through the air, and I think we get through this total. That's my best bet. But I'm taking the points with the Texans, and I think they win it outright.
01:48With this game here right now, I think between Stroud and Herbert, that's one of the big questions here. You think about Herbert, he's been in this league much longer than C.J., but Stroud's the one with more postseason experience.
01:59Not just having the win, he's played more games than Herbert because he had the win, and he went into last season. I know it's been a down year for Houston.
02:06I think what's interesting, and I do my spread math sometimes, right? Now, this isn't applicable, but I just want to make the point. Preseason, the Texans had much bigger expectations than that of the Chargers.
02:19This season has felt like a failure for Houston because instead of dominating the South, they're in the playoffs largely because they play in the AFC South, right?
02:30They didn't improve, and they are certainly so injured. So that is all valid. What stands out to me when I do look at the Chargers, if you go college football resume style, there are not a lot of great victories on there.
02:44They've played some close football games, but man, if we're going to play a close game, a field goal could feel like a lot, which is why I certainly lean Houston plus the three.
02:54But as I dove more into this game, I feel good about Houston scoring. The Chargers run defense, I think, is vulnerable enough to allow Houston to get the ball to mix in, stay in manageable second and six, third and three, and feel comfortable within their offense.
03:13I think if you're C.J. Stroud, Stroud kind of was taking the NFL world by storm over the offseason, six million podcasts and eight million interviews, but I think he's going to be a little more comfortable here, honestly, for Stroud.
03:27I've been here before, I'm at home, maybe a little house money, play the underdog role. I think Stroud will be comfortable in this football game.
03:36It's another reason I played him over one and a half passing touchdowns at a really nice plus 154 price in this game, along with what the Chargers have allowed through the air.
03:44I don't know if it's a compliment to C.J. or damning of Herbert, but the more I got into this game, despite I would tell you I trust Harbaugh more than D'Amico Ryans, I trust Stroud more than I do Herbert.
03:58The numbers suggest Herbert's more consistent, but I'll throw it back on you, Donny, over the past three weeks.
04:05They beat up on New England, who was dead to rights. They beat up on a dead to rights Las Vegas team, so those numbers that they abused and padded over back-to-back weeks were against sub 500 competition.
04:18And we've seen Houston, I keep saying, better quarterbacks they've played very well against.
04:22Jared Goff was five interceptions. We talk about what they did and how they contained Josh Allen to 9-30 earlier in the year, shut down Tyreek and Jalen Waddell.
04:32They beat them in the Miami offense 20-12, so they have the ability to step up from a defensive perspective.
04:40I'm just, again, I think when you look at L.A., I do feel they're vulnerable.
04:45I just don't think, look, Ladd's a very good wide receiver. Disley's a very good tight end, but they're not elite.
04:52This is not some of the best wide receiver and tight end talent that we've seen, so if you're just Houston, you gotta believe in your offense and say, let's push tempo.
05:02Let's put the game on Herbert to trail and come from behind, because you know, Harbaugh to a degree still wants to run the football.