US President Donald Trump might be looking to employ the 'madman theory' of global politics in his diplomatic dealings.
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00:00Why does Donald Trump seem to be so interested in Greenland and Panama all of a sudden?
00:16Trump insinuated he would use military force to seize control of Greenland and the Panama Canal.
00:22Controlling Greenland would be of strategic consequence because it's a port in a strategic shipping route
00:27and it has reserves of valuable minerals including cobalt, lithium and nickel.
00:32But Trump claims America needs a presence in Greenland as a matter of national security
00:38and that it would be a benefit to Greenland to have America control it
00:41since China and Russia have navy operations stationed there.
00:45People really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it.
00:50But if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security.
00:54That's for the free world. I'm talking about protecting the free world.
00:57As for the Panama Canal, Trump claims China is basically controlling it
01:01even though Panama's president has rejected that claim.
01:04The Panama Canal is vital to our country. It's being operated by China.
01:10China! And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn't give it to China.
01:15That is a manifestation of gross ignorance of history.
01:20The Canal will celebrate 25 years under Panamanian hands, under Panamanian administration, on December 31st.
01:27And then in a truly unexpected turn of events, Trump claimed he'd use economic coercion
01:32to turn Canada into the 51st state of America.
01:35And I know that as a successful negotiator he likes to keep people a little off balance.
01:41The 51st state, that's not going to happen. It's just a non-starter.
01:45Canadians are incredibly proud of being Canadian.
01:48And it also seems Trump might like to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
01:52He thinks the Gulf of America has a better ring to it.
01:55In response, the Mexican president proposed that the whole of North America should be renamed Mexican America.
02:02But why don't we call the United States...
02:05America Mexicana.
02:06Mexican America. It sounds nice, doesn't it?
02:09¿Verdad que s�
02:10So what's going on here?
02:12If his previous term in the White House was anything to go by,
02:15it's notoriously hard to predict the actions of Donald Trump.
02:19I use the word unpredictable. You want to be unpredictable.
02:22And I want to be unpredictable.
02:23I want to be unpredictable. I'm not going to tell you...
02:25Reigning theory is that Trump might be looking to employ the Madman principle of politics.
02:31This is a tactic of global diplomacy coined by Richard Nixon,
02:35wherein a leader acts as if he is willing to do anything,
02:38no matter how mad or damaging it may appear on the surface.
02:42By being so unpredictable, that leader ends up having a better chance of negotiating what he actually wants.
02:48When utilized well, the theory posits that other world leaders recognize their behavior as volatile
02:53and are more likely to attempt an appeasement.
02:56And so it can be a very effective form of deterrence.
02:59Threats of force can convince others to refrain from initiating or continuing actions
03:04that could escalate the volatility of a world leader.
03:08There are some political theorists, including Jonathan Stevens in the New York Times
03:12and international relations academic Roseanne McManus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
03:17say Trump's employment of the Madman principle may not be as effective as he thinks.
03:23Mainly because he has stated, even as recently as the 2024 presidential election,
03:28that he would use feigned madness in his policies.
03:32He said a military confrontation over Taiwan would not be necessary,
03:36as he, quote, respects him and knows he is crazy.
03:40Referring to himself as acting mad may have been counterproductive,
03:44because the Madman principle can really only work if a world leader can truly convince the world
03:49that their madness is genuine.
03:51Politics, after all, is a game of bluff.
03:55Never let them know your next move.