Analysts will be keenly watching how Trump will handle relations with China, and what that means for Taiwan. To learn more about U.S. foreign policy towards Taiwan under Trump's second term, TaiwanPlus spoke to Rorry Daniels, managing director at Asia Society’s Policy Institute in New York.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00President Trump has said a few things about Taiwan's defense.
00:04He expects Taiwan to invest more in its defense.
00:07Do you think that will become a sticking point in relations between the U.S. and Taiwan?
00:13So this has been a longtime President Trump initiative to ensure that any defense commitment
00:21that the U.S. makes, even a soft commitment like the Taiwan Relations Act, which says
00:26that we'll provide arms to Taiwan of a defensive nature to ensure the balance of military power
00:32across the street, that any of those commitments come with a substantial investment by that
00:39ally and partner in their own defense.
00:42So is it a sticking point?
00:44I hope not, and I don't think so.
00:46I think Taiwan will do what it needs to do to ensure that President Trump is satisfied
00:51with its defense commitments.
00:53Another thing that Taiwan can do is to reframe this discussion.
01:01One part of this discussion is just about the balance of military power, like how many,
01:05what arms is Taiwan buying, etc.
01:08Some of this conversation is about military preparedness.
01:10Is the Taiwan military up to the task of repelling a blockade, let's say a likely scenario, repelling
01:16a blockade for a week or two until assistance can arrive from other places?
01:22Several experts have said that 2025 will be the year when China escalates tensions
01:26in the Taiwan Straits.
01:28They have said that there could be moderate tensions in the Strait that could lead to
01:31wider conflict.
01:33How do you think President Trump will respond to these tensions?
01:36I'll say also that I agree with experts that 2025 is going to be a tough year for Taiwan.
01:41I do think that there is some kind of pent-up frustration that Beijing feels due to the
01:47election of Lai Ching-de, who they see as an independent separatist.
01:52So I do think there's been some holding back while the US election was determined, and
01:58that holding period is going to be over.
02:00There's also a high value in Beijing for kind of testing and probing these responses from
02:05the Trump administration.
02:06What will the cabinet do is a great question.
02:09And just to probe you on that last point that you made, in the new cabinet that Trump has
02:14appointed there are people like Marco Rubio, who is a self-proclaimed China hawk, while
02:19there are some other officials who have a very different opinion on relations with Taiwan.
02:24How do you think this internal dynamic in Trump's cabinet will inform Trump's foreign
02:28policy?
02:29The overall policy of the Trump administration will be decided by President Trump himself
02:35with inputs from various members of his cabinet, or highly influential people.
02:41And it's very difficult to predict in advance what mix of inputs Trump will receive in order
02:48to make decisions on these types of important strategic issues.
02:52So we know that Marco Rubio is very hawkish on China, and we know that incoming National
03:00Security Advisor Walsh is very hawkish on China.
03:04That will create some pressure inside the Trump administration to respond forcefully
03:08to any provocation in the Taiwan Strait.
03:11On the other hand, again, I think there is a huge influence of the business community,
03:16the international global business community, in Donald Trump's cabinet as well, and the
03:21tech community.
03:23And those people may advocate for a more moderate approach because their interests are just
03:28slightly different than the interests of a Senator Rubio or Senator Walsh.