Budget 2025: देश का बजट पेश होने में चंद दिन रह गए हैं. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman 1 फरवरी को उम्मीदों का बजट संसद में पेश करेंगी. बजट को लेकर हर किसी को उम्मीदें हैं. Commodity Market की इस बजट से क्या उम्मीदें हैं? इस पर GoodReturns की Editor Bhawna Gupta ने FUTURE FOCUS: BUDGET 2025 के नए एपिसोड में Manoj Kumar Jain- Director, Prithvi Finmart से खास बातचीत की.
#budget #budget2025 #unionbudget #unionbudget2025 #FMSitharaman #PMModi #NirmalaSitharaman #IncomeTax #budgetexpectations #GST #TaxRules #TaxinBudget2025 #ITR #incometaxfile #GDP #Economy #taxpayers #goodreturns #goldoutlook #goldprices #goldexpectations #commoditymarket #goldimportduty
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#budget #budget2025 #unionbudget #unionbudget2025 #FMSitharaman #PMModi #NirmalaSitharaman #IncomeTax #budgetexpectations #GST #TaxRules #TaxinBudget2025 #ITR #incometaxfile #GDP #Economy #taxpayers #goodreturns #goldoutlook #goldprices #goldexpectations #commoditymarket #goldimportduty
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you're watching GoodReturns.
00:08You're watching a new episode of Future Focus Budget 2025 on GoodReturns.
00:13Budget is around the corner.
00:14So, there are a lot of expectations regarding the budget from different sectors and industries.
00:20There are a lot of demands being made to the Finance Ministry.
00:23So, if we talk specifically about the community market, there are a lot of expectations regarding
00:28the community market.
00:29People are hoping for gold and silver.
00:34Gold and silver prices can be eased after the budget.
00:38There can be a little reduction in it.
00:40So, we will try to find out what are the expectations of the community market and what are the possible
00:44announcements in the upcoming budget.
00:48We have with us the Director of Prithvi Finmark, Manoj Kumar Jain, who has joined us and will
00:54talk to us in detail on this issue.
00:57Manoj ji, thank you very much for talking to us and welcome to GoodReturns.
01:02Thank you, Bhavna.
01:03Manoj ji, the budget is going to be presented very soon.
01:07So, if we talk about the community market from this upcoming budget, what are the expectations?
01:12Just like every year, there are a lot of expectations from the budget for the market.
01:19Especially here, there has been a long-term demand for the commodity market, the CTT,
01:25Commodity Transaction Tax.
01:27When this tax was imposed, it was imposed in a symbolic way, but we have seen that since
01:33the CTT has been introduced, there has been a continuous decline in the volume of commodities.
01:39So, for a long time, the Indian government has been asking to either remove it or reduce
01:45it.
01:46So, like every year, this is the biggest expectation.
01:49Even this time, the entire commodity fraternity is asking the government to give some relief
01:56from the government.
01:58Sir, if we talk specifically about gold and silver, because gold and silver have been
02:03metals that attract investors a lot.
02:07In 2024, the government reduced the import duty by 15% to 6%.
02:13The effect of which we saw was that gold became cheaper by Rs. 6500.
02:17But one thing was that our import had increased, but our trade deficit also increased a lot
02:24with it.
02:25So, SMA sir, what are the expectations in the budget 2025?
02:29Will the custom duty be increased this time?
02:32And what impact will we see on the prices of gold and silver?
02:36You rightly pointed out that the way a big duty cut was done in the last union budget,
02:42whether it was gold or silver.
02:44And because of that, we saw that there was a big decline in the prices of gold and silver
02:50in the Indian markets.
02:52And this step was taken by the Indian government.
02:55Mainly, the reason behind this was to increase the export of jewelry from India.
03:02And keeping in mind our rate in the international market, a big cut was made in the duty.
03:09But along with that, we saw that the negative effect of it was also seen.
03:15Imports of both gold and silver increased.
03:19It was also seen that the trade deficit was widening.
03:22And the pressure on Rupee has also been seen.
03:25So, once again, it is being estimated that the Indian government can increase the duty
03:30in gold and silver in the budget.
03:34However, the representation of the trade bodies is that the duty should be maintained
03:40so that the export competitiveness from here remains.
03:45And there should be no interference in this budget.
03:49So, the hope is that the duty status can be maintained in gold and silver in this budget.
03:56Sir, everyone knows that the outside world has been a big importer of gold.
04:02So, to reduce the increasing import of gold, it is being said that
04:06scrap gold recycling needs to be increased within the country.
04:10So, we would like to know from you what is scrap gold recycling?
04:15Apart from this, we would also like to know which other initiatives can be taken
04:20by which the import can be reduced a little?
04:23Absolutely. The government had already taken steps to reduce imports.
04:27Just like the Sovereign Gold Bond was launched in India.
04:31And a good response was seen in it.
04:33But somewhere or the other, the increase in gold prices increased.
04:38After that, the Indian government has not brought new issues in it.
04:43But here, to reduce the physical demand for gold,
04:48efforts are being made by the government.
04:51Now, we are seeing that the exchange-traded ETFs are getting a good response in India.
04:57So, investors who have to invest in gold only for investment,
05:02how can they shift from digital gold to gold mutual funds or exchange-traded funds
05:10to gold mutual funds or exchange-traded funds.
05:12Continuous efforts are being made by the government.
05:15Secondly, gold recycling has definitely increased.
05:23And somewhere or the other, the continuous increase in imports can be reduced.
05:30For this, the Indian government started hallmarking in gold.
05:35So that the impurity of gold comes out.
05:39And the demand for Manak gold has increased.
05:43So, to increase it, the Indian government's gold policy for recycled gold
05:50is also expected to come out.
05:55So that the recycling of gold increases in India.
06:00And the pressure on imports is reduced.
06:04Sir, you have talked about the Sovereign Gold Bond.
06:07And for a long time, it has been speculated that the government can close the Sovereign Gold Bond scheme.
06:14What do you think, sir, can there be any announcements on the budget and SGB?
06:19Officially, there has been no announcement from the government regarding the SGB.
06:24That they will discontinue it or will bring subscriptions in the future.
06:31But we have seen that for the past 5-6 months, the Indian government has not brought a new subscription of the Sovereign Gold Bond in the market.
06:41So, looking at that, it is being speculated that the government is thinking that the Sovereign Gold Bond is causing more loss to the Indian government.
06:51Because the interest clause, 2.5% of the money goes straight there.
06:58Secondly, the Indian government did not even put a capital gains tax in the Sovereign Gold Bond.
07:04So, because of that, it may be presented in a new shape somewhere.
07:11But so far, the discontinuation thing has not come out officially from the government.
07:17Sir, apart from this, if we talk about gold prices or silver prices,
07:22then global uncertainty or US Fed policy and Trump 2.0 has also started.
07:29In this case, what impact are you seeing on these metals?
07:33As far as gold and silver are concerned, the way global uncertainty is increasing here,
07:40we believe that its effect on gold and silver will remain positive.
07:44We are seeing that gold is once again rising to its lifetime highs in the international market.
07:50In fact, we saw the prices reach record highs in India yesterday.
07:54And it is seen that gold is reaching very close to Rs 80,000 on MCX.
07:59So, we believe that the way global uncertainty will increase,
08:03Trump, who has come in the second term and is constantly threatening all countries with tariffs,
08:13the more uncertainty there will be, the more precious metals will shine in the form of demand.
08:21Yes, because silver is an industrial metal, we are seeing that its outperformance has been seen to be weakening.
08:28But somewhere here, on 1 February, the Trump administration will sign the trade agreements.
08:36After that, there will be a lot of clarity here that whether they keep silver within the scope of tariffs or not.
08:42Because the US is a big importer of silver from Canada and Mexico.
08:46So, if they impose tariffs there, then the industrial activities of the US will be affected.
08:55So, we believe that the US will probably keep silver out of the scope of tariffs.
09:01And the shine of gold and silver will continue in Trump 2.0 as well.
09:06Because due to global uncertainties, there will be demand for safe haven.
09:10And even the buying of central banks will continue in gold.
09:14So, we believe that gold and silver will also give better returns to investors in Trump 2.0.
09:21And sir, if we talk about the budget, then gold will increase after the budget.
09:27Will there be an increase in its prices or are you speculating about a cut in gold prices?
09:33Look, as far as I believe in the budget, there will be no cut in duty this time.
09:37So, there is no threat of a fall in the prices of gold and silver.
09:42In gold, there is also a policy of the Fed at the end of this month.
09:47There is also speculation that this time the US Fed will not make any changes in interest rates.
09:52And that too, somewhere here, Trump's agreement will be signed on February 1.
09:57Keeping that in view, in the next meeting, maybe there will be a decision on the cut in interest rates.
10:04But this time the status quo can remain there.
10:07So, that market is already discounting.
10:10As far as the issue of trade policies and the issue of tariffs is being discussed,
10:16So, because of that, there is a sense of uncertainty in the global financial markets.
10:19So, it will seem to support the prices of gold somewhere.
10:23So, there is no possibility of a big fall in gold, whether it is before the budget or after the budget.
10:29We believe that in the international market, $2,650 gold is now seen to hold strongly.
10:35And in India too, 76,000 has now become a strong support for gold.
10:40So, for any reason, if there is a fall in prices here, the investors should see it as an investment opportunity.
10:48As far as silver is concerned, we believe that $29 will be a good support for silver.
10:54In the Indian markets, 88,000-87,000 will be a good range in terms of buying.
10:59So, there is no possibility of a big fall here either.
11:02And gradually, we believe that in the world of 2025, gold and silver will give good positive returns to investors.
11:10Sir, to increase the demand for precious metals, what policies are needed to be implemented in the budget,
11:16if we talk about disposable income and interest rates?
11:19As far as increasing consumption is concerned, there is definitely a need for relief from personal income tax.
11:28The deductions that the Indian government brought for the new tax regime income tax were all removed.
11:35And the net disposable income that is there should be saved more from the taxpayers.
11:43So, for that, somewhere the limit of tax-free income should be increased.
11:51And for that, maybe something can come out in this budget that the income up to Rs. 10 lakh should be removed from the tax area.
12:01At the same time, the upper slave of 30% tax can also be increased so that the limit of up to Rs. 20 lakh should be removed.
12:10So that the limit of up to Rs. 20 lakh should be removed so that the limit of up to Rs. 20 lakh should be removed.
12:15So, if the disposable income here increases for the middle class and upper middle class,
12:22then the consumption of precious metals will definitely increase.
12:27And our economy, which is also in a downward trend, seems to be back on track.
12:32Sir, apart from this, it is also being considered to reduce GST, which is 3% at the moment.
12:37I think it is being considered to reduce it by 1%.
12:40So, how will the reduction of GST happen?
12:43You are seeing that announcements will be made about it in Budget 2025.
12:46Or what impact will our precious metals have on it?
12:53I don't think any change will be made in GST.
12:57As far as GST is concerned, it has no direct link with the budget.
13:01Because all the decisions of GST are taken in the meetings of GST Councils.
13:07And all the ministers and representatives of the state live there with the Union Finance Minister.
13:14So, I don't think there will be any announcement in the budget regarding GST.
13:18And the way GST was announced in the import duty by the Indian government,
13:23I don't think there will be any announcement in GST.
13:28Even here, there is a possibility of 2% increase in GST.
13:33So, that can definitely happen in the future in precious metals.
13:36But at the moment, there is no possibility of GST in gold and silver.
13:41So, what is expected is that GST rates can be increased and not decreased.
13:48Apart from this, do you have any fiscal policy or budget measures that can be taken directly
13:53that will impact our community market?
13:56As far as the commodity market is concerned,
13:58in 2021, the Indian government banned a lot of agri-commodities keeping inflation in mind.
14:06And the limit of the ban has been increased to 31 January 2025.
14:11So, the market intermediaries are constantly insisting the government to remove the ban.
14:20So, if the Indian government lifts the ban on agri-commodities,
14:26then it can definitely be a beneficial step not only for the trade bodies and the processing industry,
14:32but also for the farmers.
14:36Because we are seeing that a lot of commodities are trading below the minimum support price of the Indian government.
14:45So, if these commodities are started trading here again,
14:50then the market equilibrium will appear to be improving again.
14:55And the market participants who left the market,
14:58and the risk of the management mechanism,
15:04will appear to be returning.
15:06So, we believe that this is a big decision in this budget.
15:11The commodities that have been banned should be restored again
15:15so that the commodity market appears to be getting a boost-up.
15:18Absolutely, sir.
15:19If the government's infrastructure or energy transition is a potential focus,
15:24then can it impact the demand for key commodities like metals, oil, and natural gas?
15:31Absolutely. The Indian government is continuously making efforts.
15:35We are seeing that there is a lot of pressure on the rupee.
15:37And there are two or three things due to which our trade deficit is increasing.
15:44First of all, we import a lot of fuel.
15:50For that, the Indian government is continuously making efforts.
15:53The energy transition that is being talked about,
15:56and we are moving fast towards green energy,
15:59whether it is the solar industry or the electronic vehicle industry,
16:03and all other efforts on green energy are being made by the government.
16:08So, in this budget, the allocation of the government can be increased
16:12so that the imports of fossil fuels can be reduced.
16:16Secondly, we import a lot of food oils.
16:21For that, the Indian government's national oil mission is to become self-reliant for food oils.
16:28In fact, we have increased the production in the last two or three years.
16:31So, to support the edible oil industry,
16:35some positive announcements can be seen in this budget.
16:39Thirdly, the large import of gold is also seen to increase our trade deficit.
16:46So, there is also hope that there will be an announcement on gold policy
16:52that those who invest in physical gold
16:56and because of that there is a lot of import, it can be controlled.
17:00So, these are the two or three things that the industry is hoping for.
17:03It is possible that some positive announcements will be made by the government in this budget.
17:08Absolutely, sir. Sustainability has become a very important thing at this time.
17:12So, do you think that some steps will be taken to boost the green economy in the budget?
17:17And if this is done, then what is the commodity that we can see more demand for in the coming time?
17:23Absolutely. Continuous efforts are being made by the Indian government,
17:27whether it is about ethanol blending,
17:29that the way we are continuously increasing the ethanol blending in fuel,
17:35so some decisions can be made in the budget regarding its mandate.
17:40So, because of that, the farmers will benefit directly here
17:44and our local industry will get boost up.
17:47So, we can say that it can be beneficial in the sugarcane industry.
17:52Secondly, if we talk about corn, it is also being used in ethanol here.
17:59So, it will be beneficial there.
18:02If we talk about biodiesel, soya bean seed can be a booster for the industry.
18:08So, there are many commodities here.
18:10If the government's focus is on green energy,
18:13then all these commodities can be seen as a good support.
18:18And the farmers who are directly related to these commodities will definitely benefit.
18:23Absolutely, sir. If some steps are taken to boost green energy,
18:27then you can see an indirect impact on its gold and silver as well.
18:31There will be no direct impact on gold,
18:33but there will definitely be an impact on silver here.
18:36Because the industrial use of silver is related to many green energy technologies,
18:44whether it is solar or electronic vehicle industries.
18:47And its use will definitely increase there.
18:51So, it can be a positive signal for silver.
18:55So, there is definitely a clear link between silver and green energy here.
19:02And there can be an increase in prices if there are such indications.
19:19I don't think there will be any disappointment in the budget.
19:23The budget is going to be good.
19:25Because the government has to focus on growth here.
19:29And that too in such a challenging time,
19:31when we see that the global growth is continuously decreasing,
19:36and there is concern about trade tariffs all over the world.
19:41So, we believe that only positive things will come out of the budget.
19:45And somewhere, the disappointing atmosphere that has been created in the last 2-3 months,
19:50whether it is the commodity market or other asset classes,
19:53the investors will come out of it.
19:57And overall, the coming budget is a good budget for the investor fraternity.
20:02We believe that it will be proven.
20:04And again, we can say that the happy atmosphere for investors will be stopped.
20:12Sir, my last question to you is,
20:14what levels of gold and silver would you like to see before and after the budget?
20:19We have been talking to you for a long time,
20:22and I have been telling the investors that whether it is gold or silver,
20:26whenever you invest, it is a good time to invest in gold and silver.
20:30Now, since the levels are so high, small corrections can come,
20:34because there are many reasons, they can be domestic or international.
20:39So, there is nothing to worry about gold and silver investors from the budget.
20:43And if there is any fall before the budget,
20:46because the Fed's policy will come before the budget,
20:49so if there is any fall due to it, then see it as an investment opportunity.
20:53We believe that after the budget, there will be a good increase in the value of gold and silver.
20:58Absolutely sir, thank you very much for talking to us,
21:01and thank you very much for giving such insightful information to the viewers.
21:05Thank you very much.
21:06So, you have just heard Manoj Kumar Jain,
21:08who said that we should not expect too much announcement about GST in Budget 2025.
21:15Apart from this, there will be no significant impact on prices,
21:19because for a long time, it was being speculated that
21:22the way gold was cheaper last time after the budget,
21:25so this time also gold will be cheaper.
21:27There are very few chances of this happening,
21:29because there is no hope of a cutoff in the budget this time regarding custom duty.
21:34So, you were listening to Manoj Kumar Jain,
21:36what are your expectations regarding the budget,
21:38you can also tell us by commenting.
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21:54then stay connected with Future Focus Budget 2025.
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22:10Thank you for watching this.