Newcastle United writer Jordan Cronin previews Newcastle United vs Arsenal in the Carabao Cup semi-final, and reflects on the January transfer window.
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00:00How's your nerves, Newcastle United fans? Not long to go now until that Carabao Cup
00:07semi-final second leg tie against Arsenal. It's funny how these things work. A month
00:13ago, Newcastle won 2-0 at the Emirates. I think if you had played the second leg a week
00:18after that first leg win, there'd be a lot of confidence in the air. But four weeks is
00:24a long time in football, and things have slightly changed since then. The momentum being, one,
00:30of course, Newcastle losing back-to-back home games at St James' Park. Arsenal coming into
00:36the game on the back of a 5-1 victory over Manchester City on Sunday, so their confidence
00:43is flying. Newcastle squad has taken a little bit of a hit since then, Lloyd Kelly and Miga
00:49Arnone leaving the football club. Two players that came on in the second leg as substitutes.
00:55There's doubt over Joe Linton's involvement tomorrow. He has a knee injury, which Eddie
01:02Howe confirmed after Saturday's game 2-1 defeat against Fulham. He was pitched in a leg brace
01:10or a knee brace 24 hours after. He's now out that brace, but there's a doubt. Eddie Howe
01:17said he's pre-match press conference this morning. Newcastle squad has taken a little
01:23bit of a hit, while Arsenal have got injuries themselves, to be fair. Pacayo was still sidelined.
01:34Gabriel Jesus as well, who picked up a knee injury, played in the first leg. There's been
01:41a bit of change since that first leg tie, shall we say, but it's finally here. Newcastle
01:48in a great position, 2-0 up, 90 minutes away from Wembley. If you're asking me now, I do
01:56think they'll do the job, but going back onto where I started this video about Eddie Howe's
02:03pre-match press conference this morning, I spoke about Joe Linton there, I even mentioned
02:07Lloyd Kelly. He was a big subject of the pre-match press conference this morning, on
02:15Tuesday morning, when Eddie Howe spoke to the media on Friday ahead of that Fulham game,
02:20he said he didn't expect any more outgoings. Lloyd Kelly in the squad against Fulham, comes
02:26on as a late substitute against Fulham, and then the hours after that game, news starts
02:30to build from Italy that the Eventists are serious about Lloyd Kelly, because the interest
02:35has been there all month, but they finally made their interest concrete on Saturday night.
02:40And yeah, the deal progressed quickly from there really, Lloyd Kelly flew to Turin on
02:46Sunday, underwent his medical, and then by Monday tea time, a few hours before the English
02:51transfer window closed at 11 o'clock, Lloyd Kelly was announced as the Eventists player.
02:55I think it's really good business by Newcastle United, player on big wages after signing
03:01as a free agent from Bournemouth in the summer, a £20 million obligation, as I say, big wages,
03:08a player that is behind a lot of people in the pecking order. You look at centre-back
03:13Newcastle, you've got Sven Bottman, Dan Byrne, Fabian Scheer, Jamala Selzer is coming back
03:19from injury next month. Left-back, you've got Lewis Hall who's thriving, Matt Target
03:24as well, who came back from a lengthy injury himself, or lengthy injuries himself. So Lloyd
03:30Kelly, big wages, struggling to find a way into Eddie Howe's first team. I think it was
03:36a great bit of business, and I think they're no-brainer in many ways. The only disappointment
03:41from this transfer window is Newcastle haven't signed anyone. And I'll say from both sides,
03:47I think the word, we're getting back and Eddie Howe didn't confirm this in his press conference
03:51this morning, nor do I expect him to, because you'd be essentially telling clubs you're
03:56trying to buy players off that you've got a lot of money, but buying Newcastle and doing
04:00what they've done this month by recouping what will be £30 million, £10 million,
04:05£20 million for Lloyd Kelly in the summer when his initial loan spell is complete, it
04:11should put Newcastle in a stronger position financially to compete in the summer and really
04:17bolster that start level which needs it, because they've gone three transfer windows now in
04:22a row without signing a major signing. And I do think in the short term that is a risky
04:31approach and a gamble in many ways, because this season Newcastle, as we were talking
04:35about the Arsenal game, they're 90 minutes away from a Cowboy Cup final, and they've
04:39also pulled themselves back into the Champions League qualification race. And I do think
04:44there might be points between now and the end of the season where you look at the squad
04:48and look at the start level, and things may look steel, and that will be a legitimate
04:52reason if Newcastle are in a period where they are struggling, but this is what PSR
04:59does to clubs, this is what's done to Newcastle in the summer. And what you don't want is
05:05a situation like June 30th last year when Newcastle were at risk of breaching PSR rules,
05:12they were forced to sell Elliot Anderson, they were forced to sell Jakuba Minter. That's
05:18the thing Newcastle want, is being in a position again where they're going to have to sell,
05:23they would be forced to sell St Alexander Isak, or Bruno Kimaraes, or Sandro Tonali,
05:29or Anthony Gordon. Look, I think maybe a short term argument would be, well, if Newcastle
05:36don't get European football, or Champions League football this season, those names might
05:41want to leave, and that might be true, but by being in a strong position under PSR, Newcastle
05:46can demand what they want for those players. So Alexander Isak may say, well, I want to
05:50leave. Well, you can leave, but someone's going to have to pay £150 million for you,
05:54whereas if they were at risk of breaching PSR, you have someone like Arsenal come in
06:00and go, well, I know you're at risk of breaching PSR, we're going to give you £80 million,
06:04and Newcastle at that point are back to them at the corner, so at least by doing what they've
06:07done, they're in charge of their own destiny in many ways, and that's the way it should
06:13be. So they went big in the opening two years under the new ownership, with big transfer
06:20fees on your Isaks, on your Brunos, on your Gordons, Tonalis, Botmans, etc, and they sadly
06:27paid the price for that over the last three transfers by not signing the major signing,
06:31but hopefully this summer is the end of that cycle and they can really kick on.