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00:00We're breaking it down inside the big game, live in New Orleans, Louisiana, countdown
00:05to kickoff continues, and we bring in an odds maker and somebody who's been doing this a
00:12long time, Doc Sports in the house, Rafael Esparza, in his own house actually, your backyard.
00:18The Super Bowl comes to your city, to your town, and you actually don't live too far
00:22from where we're sitting right now.
00:24No, about a 25-minute walk back to back cities in my home.
00:27I have a home in Vegas still, and now I have a home here, so I don't have a home in San
00:31Francisco, so I'm kind of messed up for next year.
00:33Well, homes in San Francisco are pretty expensive.
00:36That's why I don't have one.
00:38Homes are pretty expensive in San Francisco, and I got to tell you, some similarities between
00:45Las Vegas and New Orleans as well, right?
00:47You go out on Bourbon Street, Canal Street sort of has a Las Vegas strip vibe to it,
00:52to be honest with you.
00:53The only thing that's different, Vegas never closes, 24 hours a year things close, so that's
00:58the only big difference.
00:59Still a big drinking town, kind of gambling town, but Vegas, 365 here, closes around midnight,
01:05one o'clock.
01:06And there is a casino right down the street from here, right near the stadium, the Caesars
01:13establishment, the sports book.
01:15As you stated, how big is sports betting becoming here over the last couple of years?
01:19It's really big.
01:20Even though the sports scene, Pelicans, Saints didn't have the best year, but they're excited
01:26for LSU baseball to come around the corner, but it's big here, especially before they
01:31had to drive down to Mississippi before it was here, so now that Louisiana has it, there's
01:36a couple of casinos.
01:37I think there's one 45-minute drive from here.
01:38Yeah, because this is pretty new.
01:39It's pretty cool.
01:40I mean, you're walking down the street in downtown New Orleans, and you got a Caesars
01:43sports book.
01:44That's pretty cool.
01:45They're adding another building right next to it, which I heard they're going to have
01:47a bigger sports book there, because the sports book's kind of small.
01:51Oh, it's just sort of a token.
01:52Yeah.
01:53They're going to build a real one.
01:54I don't know about a Vegas real one, but a better one.
01:57All right, so speaking of bets, last week, you know what I mean, I told people this.
02:04Somebody asked me earlier in the day, I was a guest on a show, and they said, what are
02:09the value bets for props?
02:13And I said, well, really at this point, it's like buying a Christmas gift on December 24th.
02:18It's not really any value in the Super Bowl.
02:20It's hard to find value.
02:21You said a lot of props for different events and stuff.
02:24It's hard to find value, and then on top of that, the pro bettors attack this stuff.
02:29Like a good example is Dallas Goddard's prop opened up at 46 1⁄2, 47 1⁄2.
02:33I'm seeing 53 1⁄2, 54 1⁄2s out there popping up right now.
02:37That's a big difference when you're dealing with seven and eight yards with one player.
02:43Seems like the numbers got attacked really early this year.
02:45Yeah, it's weird, because normally they attack it now, the last week before Super Bowl.
02:49This year, though, Sharps, they pounded it right when they opened up.
02:51Sunday and Monday.
02:52Yeah, all the Travis Kelce prop bets boosted up right away, normally where people are waiting.
02:56Now Barkley, his numbers got all bet down.
02:59Now they're creeping back up, so I think the public knows the last name of Barkley, and
03:03now they want to bet the over.
03:05And the public really hasn't started to bet this game yet.
03:07No.
03:08Right?
03:09I mean, the public is still betting.
03:10They're betting through the week to build their bankroll to get money to bet on this
03:13game.
03:14Now, you mentioned Saquon Barkley.
03:16He's going to be a public play.
03:18It sounds scary when you see 112 yards, which is almost unheard of, yet would you want to
03:24say no?
03:25Would you want to bet the under on this?
03:27Because you know he's going to get the ball.
03:28You know they're going to give him the ball 20, 25 times.
03:30Yeah, he's a huge minus for a first touchdown to be scored, but if you're going to bet Barkley,
03:34why don't you put two plus touchdowns?
03:36Because you know they're going to rush the ball in.
03:38They're not going to throw it in.
03:39Either Hertz or Barkley are going to rush the ball in.
03:41I would say go for two plus touchdowns.
03:43If he gets two, you're a winner.
03:45I don't have a problem with that bet.
03:47Now listen, with first touchdown scores, you get Saquon in the plus 400 range, then you
03:52get Jalen.
03:53What stands out to me about this is normally the favorite, their players, will have the
04:00shorter odds to score the first touchdown of the game, and you see the Kent City Chiefs,
04:05you're getting what, plus 750, plus 800 range with Travis Kelsey, which I don't think he's
04:10going to score the first touchdown.
04:11No.
04:13You're getting Kareem Hunt, plus 800.
04:14That's pretty wild.
04:15You're getting the running back of the team that's favored at plus 800.
04:20People ask me about value, Rafael.
04:22I'm looking at Xavier Worthy, 10 to 1, Kareem Hunt, 9 to 1, 8 to 1 to score the first touchdown
04:28of the game.
04:29If you want to take an eagle, all right, you get plus 450 or whatever with Saquon Barkley.
04:34Or A.J. Brown at 10 to 1.
04:36That's another big number for him.
04:37Yeah, that's a big number for A.J. Brown.
04:39Now it should be noted, Jalen Hurts got the first touchdown of the game when they played
04:43a couple of years ago, and I remember this because I actually gave people the prop that
04:48Philadelphia would score first, but Kansas City would win the football game.
04:53So what are you saying now then?
04:55You got it right one time.
04:56What are you saying now?
04:57Yeah, now I know.
04:58I've got to get it done again.
05:01I almost want to go with Kansas City scores first, and Philadelphia wins the football
05:05game.
05:06I think defense is going to be really key in this game.
05:09I think it's going to be a low-scoring game.
05:10I'm waiting for the total to go up to 50.
05:12I might take a little time in the under.
05:13Really?
05:14That's all I was going to ask you about that, too, because, you know, the term sharp and
05:19all this, whatever, right?
05:20But we saw last week, like Jimmy Vaccaro was posting a couple of picks from South Point,
05:25$50,000 wagers on the under.
05:27There were a couple other spots, maybe 105K or whatever on the under.
05:32The initial bigger bets that came in on this football game have been on the under, and
05:36in fact, I'm seeing 48 and a half's popping up in most sportsbooks right now.
05:4048 and a half, and it was 49 and a half.
05:43That's where I'm glad today's Monday.
05:45Maybe Joe Public will move that one back up to 49, 49 and a half.
05:49I'm waiting to see if I can get 50.
05:51I personally like the over this game.
05:54One of us is cashing, then.
05:56Yeah, but look, last time it was 38-35.
05:59We don't have to get 70 plus around this time, but I get that both the defenses are good,
06:05but what makes you like the under so much?
06:07Because to me, the odds makers have been getting beat with these totals all through the playoffs.
06:14With the argument that, oh, the Rams defense is good, the Eagles defense is good.
06:21That game went over the number.
06:23The Lions-Commanders game sailed over the number.
06:25The Commanders-Eagles game sailed over the number.
06:28The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs have now played eight times over the last
06:32four years.
06:33Six times!
06:34They've scored 51 or more points, yet people were saying all week, oh, I don't know, there's
06:39not going to be points.
06:40Buffalo and Baltimore went over.
06:43Pretty much the first wild card weekend was 5-1 to the under.
06:48Since then, man, it's pretty much every game's gone over.
06:50Yeah.
06:51I just think the Eagles defense, and I think if you're Philly, you want to beat the champ,
06:54you let the champ Mahomes watch the game.
06:56Don't put him on the field.
06:57If you're Kansas City, we've seen it all year long.
07:00Dunk passes, slam passes.
07:02They're not really home run team passes.
07:04I think they're going to try to keep the Eagles' run game off the field.
07:07I just think it's going to be a low-scoring game.
07:10I'm like the majority.
07:11I like the under.
07:13You know what?
07:15I like the over, and I don't think it's going to get to 48.
07:18It's at 48-and-a-half right now.
07:20I don't see 40, because some books did have 50 when it first opened.
07:24I don't see it moving back and forth there.
07:26I think 48 would be the lowest.
07:28Listen, if they get to 48, though, this opens up the window for the seven-point teasers
07:34to get it in at over 41.
07:37On the Super Bowl, I know same-game teasers aren't something that everybody loves doing,
07:41but come Super Bowl.
07:43I was talking about this.
07:44I remember five years ago, you couldn't bet Super Bowl prop bets.
07:48The window's open.
07:49You can parlay any prop bet you want, so it's just so weird how times have advanced in sports
07:54gambling here in the States.
07:55Yeah, yeah.
07:57The sports books love taking people's money on the same-game parlays.
08:00You said that, not me.
08:01They put together these 12-leg, 12-player this and that.
08:07Super bonuses on those 12-leg parlays.
08:10Yeah, yeah.
08:11That's what everyone's going to attack.
08:12On the other side, we'll ask you what props are being the most bet, what props you like.
08:18Obviously, there's going to be a lot of Travis Kelsey bets.
08:23I noticed the sports books, too, they're trying to just parasite off of Taylor Swift's name.
08:30The Taylor Swift props, well, they're not really Taylor Swift props.
08:35They're football game props.
08:37I guess in the offshore world, they can get into, I don't know, you could say, how many
08:42drinks is Taylor Swift going to drink?
08:45She seems to crush the alcohol up there pretty good.
08:47Number of scenes, six and a half for the game.
08:50What is it?
08:51A scene on TV, six and a half for Taylor Swift.
08:53Six and a half appearances?
08:54Yep.
08:55That they'll show her?
08:56Yep.
08:57I would bet the under.
08:59Man, you can't go against a Swift.
09:03I don't know where I read it or popped up or even if it matters or whatnot, but I read
09:09somewhere that they are planning on giving her a minute of coverage during the game.
09:14You add up six seconds there, 10 seconds, you know what I mean?
09:17They're planning on one minute of her.
09:25Countdown to kickoff continues in New Orleans, Louisiana.
09:29We've got the Super Bowl, Super Bowl 59, and New Orleans is a, New Orleans hosted a lot
09:36of Super Bowls over the years, especially in the early days, in the 70s, and in fact,
09:41the Kansas City Chiefs, because I've been thinking about, I remember as a kid watching
09:45the Philadelphia Eagles play against the Raiders, and that was 1981, and that was the Super
09:50Bowl that was here at a Superdome, and there was the famous story of Dick Vermeule, and
09:57the Philadelphia Eagles had a curfew throughout the week, and the Raiders, it was a free-for-all,
10:04and the Eagle players went out for dinner on Bourbon Street, around Bourbon Street.
10:09They went out for dinner, and when they came out and they saw a couple of Raider players
10:14throwing up and fighting with each other, like a bunch of Raiders were like, they were like,
10:19get off of me, and they were pushing each other, and they were throwing up, and they were like
10:23fighting with passers-by, and the Eagles looked, and they were like, man, these guys really are
10:28like crazy for real, because the Raiders had the reputation of being like, black hole, yeah,
10:32but being nut jobs, and they were like, man, these guys really are nuts, and I'll never forget
10:37the story, the Eagle players thought, oh, we're going to beat these guys, the Raiders are wasted,
10:42like the Raiders have been drinking for days, all week, Raiders kicked their ass.
10:48It's going to be interesting, because last time...
10:49Jim Plunkett over Ron Jaworski.
10:51Yeah, last time Super Bowl here, the lights went out.
10:54Well, that's what I was going to say, so there's a little bit of a history here,
10:56the Super Bowl, the last time, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, wild football game,
11:02right, remember...
11:03The first brother and brother.
11:05Yeah, hardball of the heart, coach, hardball, but you had, the Baltimore Ravens were dominant
11:12early in that football game, and then the power went out, and it changed everything,
11:16when they came back, the San Francisco 49ers suddenly couldn't be stopped,
11:20until they got it to like the four-yard line, and the play calling was terrible,
11:24and they didn't get it in, so you get Philadelphia back in the Super Bowl again,
11:30they played in Glendale, Arizona a couple of years ago, I was on Kansas City in that game,
11:35this year I'm leaning towards Philadelphia, even though it's insanity to go against Kansas City,
11:42it's like hitting on 20, playing blackjack or something, betting against these guys,
11:4517 consecutive one-score victories for the Kansas City Chiefs, but I swear to God,
11:50like, and every time, the other team on paper is always better, it's like last year,
11:55man, San Francisco should beat these guys, right, I mean, Philadelphia, I didn't think,
11:59I thought the Jalen Hurts wasn't quite ready for that moment, now this is his second opportunity
12:05at this, and I'm expecting him to play well on Sunday, and he has a guy in the backfield
12:09named Barkley, that he didn't have before, he didn't have in Arizona, and that field,
12:13and their defense is better now too, let's be real, the Eagles defense is better than it was,
12:17like this is a better Eagle team than it was a couple of years ago, and that field was awful
12:21in Phoenix, remember, they overwatered, it was stinky all the places, it stunk the whole game,
12:26I think that's gonna be a benefactor for the Eagles in a run game, I think that's why I like
12:30the rushing, rushing attempts by both Barkley and Hurts as profits, I think a running game is gonna
12:36be too much for Kansas City, I'm leaning for the Eagles as well, but I also had Buffalo last week,
12:41and I'm sitting here in Kansas City's here, yeah, well, Buffalo did cover on the teasers,
12:45yes they did, right, and listen guys, it's been three consecutive years that we've had a three
12:50point Super Bowl as well, Super Bowls used to be blowouts all the time, right, but we've had,
12:55you know, three point game, three point game, three point game, a 13 to 3 game, yeah, well,
13:00the 13 to 3 game, but the one time that Kansas City did not win the Super Bowl when they made it,
13:07it was not a close game, they got punched in the mouth, they were never in it,
13:11yeah, there were different circumstances then, if you remember Andy Reid's kid got all wasted and
13:16like nearly killed a bunch of people a couple of days before the game, I forgot about that,
13:19yeah, yeah, so like that was sort of, and their offensive line was like really, really beat up
13:25going into that game, and Tampa's defensive line just owned the game, Philadelphia have a good
13:31defensive line, I mean, you know, they can win this game in the trenches, that's where they're
13:34gonna have to win the game, and everyone thought that could be their weak spot with Kelsey retiring,
13:38and that was totally wrong, and so if their offensive line can push, and that's why the
13:42running attack, I think the Eagles is gonna be really, really tough for Kansas City to stop
13:46because of the offensive line. One thing though that could be a big problem here, and a difference
13:50is Jake Elliott is not Jake Elliott anymore, right, he's not the same kicker that he used to be,
13:56and Justin Tucker is now, he's at a massage parlor somewhere, and he's not, he's not the top
14:04kicker in the league anymore, right, he slipped a little bit over the past couple, like Harrison
14:08Bucker's the best kicker in the league, yeah, I mean he is, and he's just so freaking clutch,
14:13like he doesn't miss, like you keep on waiting for him to miss, he doesn't. I thought he was
14:18gonna have a down season, because remember all the controversy all summer long for his comments he
14:23made. No, there's no, there's no justice or karma in this world, right, I figured it would catch up
14:28to him, it'll catch up to him someday, yeah, but it hasn't yet, he just keeps winning, he's like
14:32Charlie Sheen before. It caught, it caught up to Tucker, and now he's the best kicker, so maybe
14:38he's gonna be around for a while, but I thought he was gonna have a down season, Frank. But in a
14:42really close game, you know, the, and we just talked about the last three Super Bowls have been
14:47three-point games, so you're talking about the field goal kicking, it could be a difference
14:50maker, but at the same point in time, it's almost, I don't want to say it's an advantage for
14:55Philadelphia, but they'll just go for it, right, and it's, it's a dangerous, it's, it's tough to
15:00play a team when the other team goes for it a lot, and I know KC's not shy to go for it,
15:05but Philadelphia's super aggressive on fourth down, because they can't be stopped with this
15:09brotherly shove stuff. Yeah, I kind of was looking towards Kansas City's total kicking
15:13point six and a half, just because I don't think they're gonna leave points on the field.
15:17Yeah, this is not the Lions playing a Super Bowl. No, no, we will take the three and move on. Yeah,
15:22I think we will take, that's why I like total kicking point six and a half. What about over,
15:25under, over, under fourth down conversions made in a football game? Probably under, because I
15:32think Kansas City's gonna go for the three. I think both teams are gonna get the three points.
15:36Really, eh? I think Philadelphia, man. Look, we saw Philadelphia in Washington. These guys
15:40went for it, like, five times in the first quarter. But they, they couldn't stop Daniels,
15:44that's why. Daniels is another breed. All right, so your prediction, it's early in the week right
15:51now, so it could potentially change, but you like Philadelphia in the under. Yeah, I like
15:54Philadelphia in the under. All right, Philadelphia in the under. I also had Buffalo. Yeah, don't,
15:59don't bring up Buffalo anymore. I'm still, you know, one of these years, man, I'd love to see
16:04the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl. I really thought that this was gonna be the year. I agree.
16:08Uh, for them. They just weren't themselves. They had it. They, they didn't knock out the
16:14champs. They did not knock out the champs. No. They let them in. Yeah, you know what?
16:17They traded punches with the champ. You're right. And you know what the problem was, too? They let
16:21KC land the first couple of shots. Yep. Like, Buffalo were somehow flat. How are you flat in
16:27the NFC Conference Championship game? Against my homes. Like, I don't, I don't, I don't understand
16:30it. They, they were flat, uh, coming out of the gate. Raphael Esparza, Doc Sports in the house.
16:36Good to see you, Raphael. Thanks for, uh, for joining us.
17:00Thanks.