"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (21/02/2025) dengan Tema Peluang Saham Batu Bara di Tengah Kenaikan Harga Komoditas".
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us again. We are still in the market. We will start with the Spotlight market.
00:10Mr. Mirza, we have summarized some points that attract the attention of the market players.
00:14Among them, there is the DCII stock, which is back to the top of the list, reaching 20%, and the price is now at IDR 67,225,
00:22including the highest in the Indonesian stock exchange.
00:25There is the technology sector, which is still leading the sectoral strength, up 6.69% in the trading yesterday.
00:30One of them also seems to be dragged by this DCII.
00:33Data shares are down 20% after the acquisition plan, 40% shares by TOER.
00:38Those are some of the Spotlight markets this Friday, Mr. Mirza, and we look at the global economic agenda.
00:46Among them, Mr. Mirza, from the United States, there is PMI Manufacture, then the raw oil inventory,
00:52PMI Manufacture from the European Union, retail sales from the UK, as well as foreign capital planting from China,
00:58and the consumer price index from Japan, and several agendas in other Asian regions, as well as from New Zealand.
01:08We switch, Mr. Mirza, to look at the ME10 agenda.
01:13There is RUPS from SOSS, MFIN, FPNI, and also FUTR.
01:21An update from the ASEAN Stock Exchange.
01:23Mr. Mirza, before we talk about the opportunity for the price index to open and merge this morning,
01:28where the majority also fell like the Global Stock Exchange or the United States,
01:31Nikkei fell 0.24%, Stratimes 0.03%, Kospi fell 0.4%, Hang Seng Hong Kong dropped 2.27%.
01:41Mr. Mirza, the price of coal jumped this weekend amid the efforts of Russian and Ukrainian peacekeepers who are still alert.
01:52The trend of coal commodity strengthening is still responded by related stocks with various movements, the majority is still weak.
02:04The price of coal jumped in the middle of the efforts of Russian and Ukrainian peacekeepers who are still alert.
02:11The price of Newcastle coal for February 2025 jumped around 2.65 USD to 103.5 USD per ton.
02:21As of March 2025, it rose 2.8 USD to 107.4 USD per ton.
02:29There was a 2025 increase of 1.2 USD to 110.3 USD per ton.
02:37The spirit of peace between Russia and Ukraine is threatened after the attack by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil infrastructure.
02:45This extraordinary attack took place a day after Trump claimed that Ukraine was responsible for the Russian invasion in 2022.
02:54This increased concerns among allies of America in Europe that Trump's approach to ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is more beneficial for Moscow.
03:05The President of the United States, Donald Trump, accused the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of being a dictator.
03:14He reminded that he must act quickly to secure peace or the risk of losing his country.
03:21This further deepened the conflict between the two countries.
03:26The Russian-Ukrainian war that took place three years ago has become one of the causes of the price of coal.
03:33Despite the high price of coal, Moscow has been under pressure since the beginning of the year,
03:39among which the price of natural resources TBC or ADRO is 9.5%,
03:45the price of land resources TBC or BUMI is 6%,
03:49the price of natural resources TBC or BYAM is 1%,
03:53the price of gold and energy resources TBC or GEMS is 9.5%,
03:58the price of indotambang raya mega TBC or ITMG is 5.5%
04:03and the price of Bukit Asam TBC or PTBA is 3%
04:08various sources IDX channel
04:28Good morning, Mr. Raden.
04:33Good morning, Mrs. Frissa.
04:35Mr. Raden, regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
04:43which was mediated by the United States,
04:46but it seems that Trump even said that Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is a dictator.
04:54Because it seems that he is still quite alert so that the price of coal has experienced a boost.
04:58Actually, how do you see the correlation, then the opportunity of the future coal commodity?
05:06Yes, of course it doesn't just happen in coal.
05:09If we talk about global stability, this is of course always closely related to commodities.
05:15However, in this case, it is related to the coal stock or the commodity of coal itself,
05:21related to global stability.
05:26Of course, this is very influential.
05:28As we know, of course, peace or what President Trump wants for peace
05:36must be aimed at their economic stability as well.
05:40Related, for example, they want energy stability, for example,
05:44or related to gas in Europe.
05:47It means that when Russia and Ukraine happen until the end of the peace,
05:52of course it can happen.
05:54However, at the moment, if we look at it,
05:57after the elections that took place a few days ago
06:02related to the meeting between the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia yesterday,
06:06of course this is still a negative response to the price of coal.
06:11Of course, it means that although yesterday the elections were quite alert,
06:16but the response from what we see today,
06:19from the price of the commodity of coal itself,
06:22then from the stocks in our own market,
06:25the response is negative.
06:26It means that there is a decline.
06:28It means that in the near future, although it is still alert,
06:31the tendency is still to allow for peace in the near future.
06:36Because the condition is already reflected in the market.
06:41Although there are still some things
06:43that may happen beyond expectations.
06:46Okay.
06:47There was an agreement to make peace,
06:50but it turned out that Ukraine sent a drone again,
06:55attacking the oil factory from Russia itself.
07:00That's why Trump said that this looks like a bubble for Ukraine itself.
07:05It means that when you see that there is still an optimistic chance
07:08that there will be peace,
07:10as you said,
07:11it means that there is a potential that the price of coal will tend to be stable.
07:16Or what is it like?
07:18Yes, in my opinion, the current condition will tend to be more stable
07:23in coal stocks and coal commodities.
07:26First, there has been a previous decline.
07:30Second, stock prices have responded,
07:32they have experienced a previous decline.
07:34It means that even when there is peace,
07:37it does not close the possibility of a sudden correction.
07:40Because there has been a correction before.
07:42So if it was said earlier that there will be stability,
07:45maybe that's what can happen.
07:47When there is peace, the price will be stable again this year.
07:53Okay.
07:54It means that it will still tend to be stable for the price of coal itself
07:57or the price of its commodities.
07:59If we look at the energy from coal-based coal prices,
08:02there are six that we show.
08:06Since the beginning of the year until now,
08:08such as palm trees, then there is the earth,
08:11all of this is still moving in a negative direction.
08:13And maybe we can look at the screen like that.
08:15And the decline is still quite significant.
08:17For example, adro or palm trees,
08:19this is experiencing a decline year-to-date.
08:22It looks like almost 9.5%.
08:29Then there is the earth, 6%.
08:33It's not too significant, only 1%.
08:36But GEMS is also 9.5%,
08:39ITMG 5.5%, and PTBA 3%.
08:42From these emissions, what is your analysis?
08:46From these six emissions,
08:49I tried to see if there were two emissions that caught my attention.
08:53That is palm trees, palm trees and ITMG.
08:56Because palm trees and ITMG,
08:58of course, the trading depends on exports.
09:02It means domination compared to, for example, PTBA,
09:07where more sales go to domestic and more stable contracts go to PLN.
09:12Meanwhile, palm trees and ITMG,
09:14which are very dependent on the global market,
09:16on the export market,
09:17so that when there is a price drop condition,
09:21like from the beginning of this year,
09:23it will immediately have an impact on income,
09:26on the performance of palm trees and ITMG.
09:28So this is what I said earlier,
09:30it has actually been reflected,
09:32even from the middle of the year in 2024.
09:35Or even in the last year,
09:37the price of palm trees has been weakening
09:41and still continues to this day.
09:43So it's very clear.
09:45There was a palm tree share, ITMG,
09:47which is dependent on the current export market.
09:50And because the export market is starting to be a bit stable
09:54and the price of palm trees is going down,
09:55of course, there will be an impact on the price of palm trees in AAD and also ITMG.
09:59Okay.
10:00So if we talk about palm trees and palm trees,
10:03or the mother of ADRO,
10:06it will be more focused and separate AADI
10:09which is focused on the palm tree business.
10:11That's why you said,
10:12if you want to talk about palm trees and palm trees,
10:13it's better to go to AADI.
10:15Yes.
10:16Okay.
10:17How should AADI's investment opportunity be,
10:20Mr. Raden?
10:23Yes, in my opinion,
10:24it should be short-term investment.
10:25Short-term?
10:26Yes, short-term investment until the dividend comes in.
10:29Of course,
10:30there will still be interesting things
10:33in the palm tree sector
10:36because it is always favored by relatively large dividends
10:41and above the average of most other stocks.
10:44Of course, we can take advantage of these emits
10:47until the dividend comes in the middle of this year.
10:49Okay.
10:50The dividend is included in the ADI, right?
10:53Yes, that's right, Ms. Prisa.
10:55Okay.
10:56At 7650,
10:57just in the short term,
10:58what should the strategy be like?
11:02Yes, in my opinion,
11:03for ADI stocks,
11:04the trend is still decreasing.
11:06So I strongly recommend,
11:08if you want to make a purchase,
11:10buy or accumulate ADI stock purchases
11:12every time there is a weakness.
11:14And it should also be known,
11:16in the condition of a downtrend stock,
11:18we can enter with a composition of 20%
11:21or 10-20% of the assets that we target.
11:25For example, if we target 100%,
11:27in the case of a downtrend stock like ADI,
11:29we only enter 10% or 20%
11:31when the stock is experiencing a correction.
11:34ADI has tested the lowest level at 7550 since the IPO.
11:40Is that a stop-loss limit?
11:43Yes, I think it can be a stop-loss limit
11:46or it can also be taken to accumulate.
11:50Because this is of course at the speculation point,
11:52Mrs. Prisa.
11:53So it can be for investors
11:55who are in the short term
11:57or for day trade 2-3 days,
11:59it can be used like that.
12:01Or for those who want to accumulate until the dividend later,
12:03can be patient,
12:04can wait until it turns out that it is in the stop-loss area.
12:07It's better if we are in the low area earlier.
12:10It's better if we wait until it really happens,
12:13so the price is already in the bottom,
12:16then we can accumulate again
12:17for those who are waiting for the dividend.
12:20Okay, that's the strategy for the ADI IPO,
12:22which so far according to Mr. Raden is still a downtrend.
12:24So every time there is a weakness,
12:26buy it and when it reaches the lowest level, 7550,
12:29it's a speculative level.
12:31Okay, we'll leave ADI,
12:32we'll talk about other stocks after the IPO,
12:35stay with us on MarketBas.