Kementerian Keuangan masih belum mengumumkan paparan kinerja Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara periode Januari hingga Februari 2025. Adapun laporan kinerja APBN atau rilis APBN KiTa (Kinerja dan Fakta) selama ini disampaikan dua-tiga pekan setelah akhir bulan terkait.
Tak hanya paparan secara verbal, Kemenkeu juga biasanya merilis laporan kinerja APBN secara bulanan dalam bentuk tertulis atau sering disebut ”Buku APBN KiTa”. Mengacu pada situs resmi Kemenkeu, laporan tertulis itu rutin dipublikasikan sejak Desember 2017.
Sebelum pemerintahan Presiden Prabowo Subianto, Kemenkeu nyaris tidak pernah ”bolong” melaporkan kinerja APBN, bahkan di tengah pandemi Covid-19 sekalipun ketika penerimaan merosot tajam dan ekonomi terpukul.
Tak hanya paparan secara verbal, Kemenkeu juga biasanya merilis laporan kinerja APBN secara bulanan dalam bentuk tertulis atau sering disebut ”Buku APBN KiTa”. Mengacu pada situs resmi Kemenkeu, laporan tertulis itu rutin dipublikasikan sejak Desember 2017.
Sebelum pemerintahan Presiden Prabowo Subianto, Kemenkeu nyaris tidak pernah ”bolong” melaporkan kinerja APBN, bahkan di tengah pandemi Covid-19 sekalipun ketika penerimaan merosot tajam dan ekonomi terpukul.
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TVTranscript
00:30during the COVID-19 pandemic.
00:37The Ministry of Finance of Takunjung announced
00:39the budget, income and state spending
00:41for the period of January 2025.
00:44This is something unusual
00:46considering that every month,
00:47the Ministry of Finance of Takunjung routinely
00:48publishes the state's financial conditions
00:50and finances to the public
00:51since December 2017,
00:53even during the COVID-19 pandemic.
00:56However, the last time the Ministry of Finance of Takunjung
00:58announced the release of the State Budget
01:00was on January 6, 2025
01:01to announce the December 2024 budget.
01:04Meanwhile, the State Budget report of 2025
01:06was highly anticipated by the public at the beginning of this year.
01:10There are several factors that determine
01:11the importance of the release of the State Budget report
01:13to the public since the beginning of this year.
01:16First, the release of the State Budget in January 2025
01:18is an indicator of the first fiscal budget
01:20that is planned and managed directly
01:22by President Prabowo Subianto.
01:25Second, there are several controversial fiscal policies
01:27that were taken by President Prabowo
01:29at the beginning of his government
01:30that can affect the synergy of the State Budget,
01:32such as the reduction of the state budget
01:34to the value of 308 trillion rupiah,
01:37which will affect the realization of state spending
01:39at the beginning of the year.
01:42In addition, the implementation of the Cortex system
01:44since January 1, 2025
01:46which is still problematic until now.
01:50Obstacles in the new tax system
01:52are suspected to have the potential
01:53to make state recipients
01:54suffer throughout January 2025.
01:58Various sources of IDX Channel
02:08Good evening, to discuss our topic this time
02:10we have connected via Zoom
02:11with Mr. Wijayanto Samirin
02:14who is the economist at the University of Paramadina.
02:16Hello, Mr. Wijayanto, how are you?
02:19How are you, Mr. Pras?
02:21Okay, thank you Mr. Wijayanto for the opportunity
02:23this is interesting if we discuss
02:24with the existing conditions
02:26all parties are still waiting
02:28for reports from our financial sector
02:31in 2025.
02:33But before that, we will review first
02:36how do you see the routine
02:37from the announcement of the implementation of the State Budget
02:39is usually always there.
02:41Then, at this time, it has not yet been announced
02:44by the government.
02:45Please, Mr. Wijayanto.
02:47So, indeed, since 2017
02:50the Ministry of Finance always routinely
02:53delivers our State Budget Report.
02:56This is something that is highly appreciated
02:58by the public, by the audience
03:00because it is always on time
03:01and the quality of the data is good.
03:05And actually, this is just a
03:07mechanistic mechanism.
03:10The report and the arrangement of the report
03:12is then published.
03:15Well, it seems there is something
03:16that is a little abnormal
03:18so there must be a delay
03:21like what is happening now.
03:23All parties are waiting for the report
03:26because all parties are waiting
03:28to be able to have a reason to be optimistic.
03:31Okay.
03:32What benefits are obtained by the public
03:34then the market players
03:36such as entrepreneurs, the public
03:38then the economy itself
03:40related to the release of data
03:41which is delivered every month by the government
03:44related to the performance of the State Budget, Mr. Wijayanto?
03:46Oh, this is very important
03:47because the fiscal is the main factor
03:51in Indonesia's economy.
03:52The role of the government in promoting growth
03:55is very visible from our fiscal conditions.
04:00So this situation must be known by the public
04:04especially the observers
04:06then investors
04:07also entrepreneurs.
04:10The worst condition is
04:11when the report is not there
04:13so everyone is in doubt
04:15because the lack of information
04:18by investors is considered as a risk.
04:21When there is no information
04:23they make a prediction
04:25with the worst assumption
04:27so we need to get that report.
04:30Fortunately, the results are good.
04:32That's very good news.
04:33The results are just ordinary
04:35when there is a transparent report
04:37which is available, that's pretty good.
04:39The worst is
04:40when there is no report at all.
04:43For an economist like me
04:45of course those numbers help
04:48to forecast what will happen
04:50at the end of this year.
04:52The January data is like an opening door
04:55for our situation.
04:57Moreover, we have a new government
05:00a new president
05:01so we haven't memorized
05:03the characteristics of the government
05:05so the information at the beginning is very important.
05:09Okay, but if we look at
05:10the lack of information
05:12from the PBN data
05:14until now
05:15what can we look at
05:17other than the risk
05:19of suspicions
05:21which can be said
05:23quite wild in the society
05:25what should be done
05:27to make it public?
05:31Yes, I think what was said
05:33by the Ministry of Finance
05:35that in the middle of this month
05:38it will be announced together
05:40with the February report
05:42is enough to help
05:44the parties
05:45because there is certainty
05:47even though it was announced earlier
05:49is better.
05:51Okay, but if we talk about the January data
05:53which you said
05:54is like an opening door
05:56from the Ministry of Finance
05:58in 2025
06:00what do you think
06:01what is actually happening
06:03with our country's finance?
06:05When it is announced
06:07the report will be something
06:09quite crucial
06:11that needs to be respected by many parties.
06:13Yes, in my opinion
06:15why this has not been published
06:17there are two things
06:19the first is the logistical and administrative factors
06:22we know there are some new KL
06:24new ministers
06:26so maybe this contributes
06:28to the delay in the report
06:30then don't forget
06:31there are so many new policies
06:33strategic
06:35that was announced at the last minute
06:37whether it is a change related to MPG
06:39then MPN and so on
06:41what is not less important is the Cortex
06:43this adds to the complexity
06:45because the tax payment
06:47is delayed due to the system we expect
06:49Ah, that's it, okay.
06:51The second
06:53I also see there is a strategic element
06:55this is just done
06:57there is a strategic element
06:59guess, maybe
07:01sometimes the January report
07:03is not too good
07:05when all parties are waiting for the good news
07:07when there is a little distress
07:09to our market
07:11until it is combined with February
07:13yes
07:15it is expected to be better
07:17so that the factors
07:19can be normalized by the information
07:21in February
07:23so when February is announced
07:25what happens in January becomes irrelevant
07:27Okay, it is expected to be able to reduce
07:29so in January
07:31as you said, Mr. Wijan
07:33yes
07:35and this is already combined
07:37there is Mr. Arief Rohman Syed Putra
07:39Head of Hidmitech Center
07:41Hello, Mr. Arief, how are you?
07:45still on mute, it seems
07:49Hello, how are you, Mr. Paras?
07:51Thank you for your time
07:53we have discussed
07:55quite far with Mr. Wijayanto Samirin
07:57an economist from the University of Paramadina
07:59how is the review from the Hidmetech Center?
08:01with the current situation
08:03there is no report
08:05from the State Treasury
08:07from January to February
08:09Mr. Wijayanto has said
08:11there are several things
08:13this is a strategic effort
08:15that is being done by the government
08:17how to see
08:19the conditions in January
08:21then combined with February report
08:23so that later
08:25there will be positive information
08:27from the government
08:29Mr. Arief, please
08:31Thank you, Mr. Paras
08:33so indeed
08:35all of us are looking forward
08:37to the official announcement
08:39which is usually delivered
08:41by the government
08:43usually two or three weeks after
08:45the end of the month
08:47but this announcement
08:49until January, February
08:51this is a press conference
08:53usually done
08:55by the Ministry of Finance
08:57it is not always done
08:59this is certainly
09:01according to us
09:03this causes
09:05public speculation
09:07so what actually
09:09doesn't have to happen
09:11so
09:13if we look at it
09:15based on
09:17secondary data
09:19information from
09:21the government
09:23there are
09:25some things
09:27that are not good
09:29but according to us
09:31the conditions
09:33should be
09:35released
09:37because it will
09:39be a consideration
09:41it will be
09:43a decision
09:45for us
09:47the entrepreneurs
09:49for the entrepreneurs
09:51what is the impact
09:53if there is a delay
09:55from the announcement
09:57is it crucial, Mr. Arief?
09:59if we talk about
10:01data information
10:03we can also get
10:05from non-primary
10:07but indeed
10:09what is released by the government
10:11it becomes
10:13official information
10:15that the economic conditions
10:17are like this, the macro is like this
10:19our economic achievements
10:21are like this
10:23it is more clear
10:25although we are also
10:27in any world
10:29we have
10:31intelligent data
10:33how to work
10:35because we can't wait
10:37for the government to make
10:39decisions
10:41okay
10:43Mr. Wija
10:45what has been said by the entrepreneurs
10:47especially HIPPITEX Center
10:49what is the impact
10:51for the government
10:53Mr. Wija
10:55for the government
10:57this is also information
10:59for all ASN
11:01for all officials
11:03the situation of the boat
11:05they are driving
11:07when for example
11:09the deficit is higher
11:11so they are more
11:13motivated
11:15to save money
11:17when the receipt
11:19is not enough
11:21those who are in the state income sector
11:23must be more
11:25determined to be able to meet it
11:27the point is, each part
11:29of the government has a target
11:31when information about the performance
11:33even though it is only the first month
11:35it has been published, they then see
11:37what is my target, will it be achieved
11:39or not
11:41I think for those of you
11:43in tax studies, those of you in tax
11:45information APBN
11:47especially the receipt
11:49this is an amazing thing
11:51excited if it is still far from the target
11:53okay
11:55it means there is indeed something
11:57that must be done immediately
11:59on the one hand, if this is a routine
12:01done, it can eventually become
12:03an evaluation material
12:05related to efforts to chase again
12:07from the side of state income
12:09we will discuss further in the next segment
12:11because the 2025 target is quite high
12:13in the next segment
12:15Mas Arief, we will take a break
12:17we will be back soon
12:19after the next conversation
12:29thank you for still joining us
12:31in Market Review
12:33we will be back soon
12:35we will be back soon
12:37in 2018
12:39up to the 2025 target
12:41as you can see
12:43on your TV screen
12:45state income
12:47the trend is quite positive
12:49in the last few months
12:51in 2024
12:53Rp 2,842.5 trillion
12:55while the target in APBN in 2025
12:57reached
12:59Rp 3,005.1 trillion
13:03and then we will discuss
13:05the APBN deficit
13:07that happened in the last few years
13:09the highest rate was indeed
13:11in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic
13:136.14% against GDP
13:15then it continued to fall
13:17to the lowest in 2023
13:191.65% against GDP
13:21then it rose again
13:23in 2024, 2.29%
13:25and in 2025
13:27this projection is 2.53%
13:29against GDP
13:32what about state spending?
13:35in 2024
13:37this outlook is
13:39Rp 3,412.2 trillion
13:41while the APBN in 2025
13:43Rp 3,621.3 trillion
13:47let's continue the conversation
13:49with Mr. Wijayanto Samirin
13:51and Mr. Arief Rohman Syedbutra
13:53Mr. Wijayanto Samirin
13:55if we look at the data
13:57that has been reported
13:59the country's income tends to rise
14:01the APBN deficit tends to rise
14:05what can we observe?
14:07how important is the data
14:09of the state finance report
14:11need to be conveyed to the public?
14:15I think it needs to be conveyed
14:17to the public as transparent as possible
14:19actually
14:21some parties
14:23say it's not good
14:25it's not that bad
14:27so it can be useful
14:29to minimize
14:31the distrust in our fiscal situation
14:33if we look at the income target
14:35in 2025
14:37actually it's not that high
14:39the increase is only 5.7%
14:41compared to
14:43the income in 2024
14:45this means
14:47moderate and low
14:49but we have to look at
14:51the current situation
14:53low purchasing power
14:55the confidence
14:57of low business owners
14:59then the commodity price
15:01tends to drop
15:03so the country's income from the PNBP
15:05will also be affected
15:07so even though it's only 5.7%
15:09personally, I see
15:11this is a target that
15:13needs to be worked hard
15:17in terms of export, I also see
15:19there are so many programs
15:21that are extraordinarily large and expensive
15:23for the government
15:25so when the income is limited
15:27and there is an extraordinary large spending
15:29that must be met by the government
15:31I think the 2.5-3% deficit target
15:33will definitely
15:35not necessarily, most likely will be exceeded
15:37maybe close to 2.9%
15:39but still below 3%
15:41it must be
15:43related to the efforts
15:45that are also being done by the government
15:47to pursue the country's income target
15:49Mr. Arief, what do you think?
15:51you are one of the biggest contributors
15:53to the country's income from the tax sector
15:55what can we look forward to?
15:57because we know that the TORTEX system
15:59which is expected to be a game changer
16:01for the country's income
16:03is still being criticized
16:05yes, thank you
16:07so indeed
16:09if we talk about the tax
16:11income target
16:13in 2025
16:15in the range of
16:17IDR 2,400 to IDR 2,490
16:19then
16:21for those who are responsible for the tax
16:23income target
16:25in the range of IDR 2,183
16:27well, this number
16:29will not be
16:31dependent on
16:33the TORTEX system
16:35which has been said
16:37it is expected to be a game changer
16:39but we both know
16:41that yesterday
16:43when it was released,
16:45it caused
16:47a huge problem
16:49in providing
16:51services to the taxpayers
16:53we even had to
16:55access it
16:57until a few weeks later
16:59so indeed
17:01the trouble was enormous
17:03so it was decided
17:05that it was not
17:07fully using TORTEX
17:09but still using the old system
17:11so now
17:13the DJP
17:15is using the old system
17:17and also the new system
17:19while being
17:21improved
17:23in such a condition
17:25then also yesterday
17:27the calculation of GDP
17:29will also increase by 12%
17:31which is also
17:33mathematically
17:35it can reach
17:37around Rp60 trillion
17:39but then
17:41even if it increases
17:43there are still
17:45a lot of
17:47affirmations that
17:49it is not actually increasing
17:51this is also
17:53affecting the
17:55target of receiving in 2025
17:57well
17:59then
18:01Mr. Wijayanto also said
18:03about distrust
18:05public distrust
18:07related to
18:09the recent events
18:11this is also very
18:13affecting, we can see our currency exchange
18:15we can see
18:17the movement
18:19of our ISG
18:21that is extraordinary
18:23this is also
18:25we are not
18:29anti-corruption
18:31but indeed
18:33it must be ensured
18:35because there is a lot of information
18:37that for example
18:39the calculations
18:41in the previous cases
18:43are also not real
18:45not concrete
18:47because the calculations assume
18:49environmental damage and all kinds
18:51don't let
18:53corruption
18:55must continue
18:57but also how to keep
18:59stability
19:01our economy
19:03but what do you think
19:05with parallel conditions
19:07between the old system and the new system
19:09for our taxes
19:11is this what will affect
19:13state receipt
19:15or because of the old system
19:17it won't affect
19:19when this
19:21improvement is going well
19:23and before the
19:25first semester is finished
19:27it can be fully used
19:29I think it will also be quite influential
19:31for how
19:33it can affect the increase
19:35in our taxes
19:37but if it comes to functions
19:39so the cortex
19:41that was operated yesterday
19:43it's not
19:45the ideal cortex
19:47like
19:49the previous plan
19:51but it can be released first
19:53can be used first while doing
19:55improvements
19:57when the functions are still
19:59basic functions
20:01it can't affect
20:03the state receipt
20:05because it's hoped that
20:07the cortex can expand
20:09the tax base significantly
20:11and that's what makes
20:13us reliable because we both know that
20:15our underground economy
20:17is still very large
20:19at 23% of GDP
20:21and that's the potential of the tax
20:23when it can capture
20:25the underground economy
20:27it's also extremely large
20:29the potential of the tax that can enter
20:31but if the cortex is still
20:33just basic services
20:35that are later
20:37digitized
20:39it won't have much impact
20:41on the increase
20:43in tax receipts
20:45Okay, Mas Arief.
20:47Mr. Wijayanto, so what are the strategic steps
20:49that must be taken by the government
20:51if we look at how on the one hand
20:53trying to increase the state receipts
20:55improving us in the cortex system
20:57then on the other hand
20:59the routine of financial energy report
21:01is also something that
21:03must be implemented
21:05in the future, right?
21:07Yes, it's related to
21:09APBN. The government
21:11must be really serious
21:13when it comes to efficiency
21:15like what has been
21:17suggested. Even if
21:19it's still possible, it needs to be
21:21modified. Don't let
21:23the excess efficiency kill
21:25the existing economic sectors
21:27to create jobs
21:29and source of tax receipts.
21:31Secondly, in terms of receipts,
21:33I very much agree with Mas Arief earlier
21:35because our underground economy
21:37is still very large
21:3923%
21:41but if the UI
21:43has ever calculated 12%
21:45if my estimate is between 15% to 20%
21:47that's all if we
21:49apply a tax
21:51with a rate tax ratio
21:53the receipts can already be
21:55around 300 trillion
21:57and this is extraordinary for
21:59our APBN, for
22:01our tax. There are so many
22:03low-hanging fruit actually related to
22:05this underground economy that must be
22:07prioritized. The first is
22:09compensation. It's still extraordinary.
22:11Pia Chu Kae herself
22:13affirmed that
22:15in the last five years
22:17there are 72
22:19thousand illegal containers
22:21entering Indonesia containing TPT
22:23textiles and textile products.
22:25These are just textiles and textile products
22:27nothing else.
22:29If we stop
22:31and tax them, besides
22:33increasing the receipts
22:35it can also help the domestic industry.
22:37Not to mention fake
22:39tax, cigarette tax,
22:41cigarette tax without tax, and so on.
22:43It's very massive.
22:45If the government wants low-hanging fruit
22:47very low-hanging fruit
22:49things like that must be prioritized.
22:51Okay, so in the field
22:53there are still things that need to be
22:55improved on the one hand to
22:57encourage the country's acceptance
22:59when we talk about the underground economy,
23:01Mr. Widja? So, policy
23:03is one thing.
23:05Implementation in the field is another thing.
23:07A good policy
23:09without the support of
23:11a good implementation
23:13in the field, it will not
23:15have the expected impact.
23:17So, in both aspects, it must be encouraged.
23:19Thank you, Mr. Pras.
23:21Okay, lastly, Mr. Arief, do you see
23:23the potential for the country's acceptance
23:25in the future, and
23:27we know the financial reports
23:29must be done immediately, or what?
23:31Yes, so based on
23:33the information we
23:35received,
23:37January and February are still
23:39very far away.
23:41I don't want to mention the exact
23:43number, but it's still
23:45less than 10%.
23:47For tax purposes.
23:49But we will wait
23:51for the official release
23:53from the government.
23:55But we have
23:57fresh wind
23:59with some
24:01media already mentioned
24:03about, indeed
24:05in the RPJMN, as mentioned
24:07on February 10, it will be
24:09announced by the government, it will be
24:11formed by the State Department.
24:13It is an official document,
24:15and if we listen to
24:17the latest issues, the intelligence data
24:19that we mentioned,
24:21it will be executed
24:23soon.
24:25This is what we must
24:27encourage, because based on
24:29the studies
24:31from various countries,
24:33the changes, but
24:35the key is
24:37how to combine
24:39OTRES Pacek with GACUKE,
24:41which was mentioned by Mr. Jayanul earlier.
24:43We can
24:45see
24:47that the latest cases
24:49are not far from
24:51the goods coming in
24:53from our country.
24:55So this is what we really need to
24:57strengthen. And even though
24:59it's in one
25:01umbrella, it's different.
25:03Because first,
25:05it must be united
25:07in an integration
25:09that is made by one
25:11and also
25:13interconnection,
25:15which is important. So
25:17DJP can't
25:19access the
25:21availability of goods coming in.
25:23On the other hand, GACUKE can't
25:25access the company's financial
25:27reports. This can be
25:29synchronized.
25:31In my opinion, this is the second
25:33game changer that we hope
25:35to be able to
25:37catch up
25:39in the last two months,
25:41in the first two months,
25:43to catch up in the next
25:45ten months. That's the plan
25:47for the country.
25:49Okay, so there are still a lot of efforts
25:51that need to be done by the government
25:53to boost again from the
25:55state receiver with our efforts in the system,
25:57then efforts
25:59to enforce the law also on the ground,
26:01if we talk about the potential
26:03of state receivers that can still be
26:05implemented in the future.
26:07Well, thank you very much for sharing
26:09the information and updates that have been given
26:11to the viewers. Mr. Arief, thank you
26:13also for the analysis and information
26:15that has also been given to the viewers today.
26:17Congratulations on continuing your activities
26:19again. Greetings, see you again.
26:23Thank you, Mr. Arief. Thank you.
26:25Okay, viewers, I've been with you for
26:27an hour in Market Review
26:29and keep sharing your information
26:31only on IDX channel, your transport
26:33and comprehensive investment reference.
26:35For the sake of the future,
26:37I am Investor Saham.
26:39I am Prasetyo Wibowo
26:41as well as all the staff
26:43who are on duty. Thank you.
26:45See you again.