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00:00Well, we are tracking the latest with this next spring storm system.
00:03It is starting to make a shift to the southeast.
00:05We'll show you who can expect the heaviest snowfall
00:07and what we have in store for the rest of the week.
00:20So we've seen a significant shift in the vast majority of the computer models
00:24this morning to the southeast with the heaviest of the snow.
00:28We knew this storm was going to be a bit of a headache,
00:29because it's a very tight snowfall gradient
00:33on the western and northwestern side of this.
00:35And any little shift south and east,
00:37we've been talking about the last couple of days,
00:39would have a big impact on metro snow totals,
00:41because we were always going to be on the northwestern side of this.
00:44But southeastern Minnesota still looks to bear the brunt of this system
00:48with significant snowfall.
00:50So this is what all the advisories look like right now.
00:52We've got the blizzard warning for south central,
00:55southeastern Minnesota, Worthington, Elbert, Lee, Mankato, Red Wing.
00:58Those are all areas that are still going to get significant snowfall and wind,
01:0250 mile per hour wind gusts possible tomorrow.
01:05But I do think we could see some of these things shift south and east this afternoon.
01:09These advisories were as of this morning.
01:12They haven't been adjusted yet.
01:14But the southeast metro yesterday was thrown into the winter storm watch,
01:18those areas of blue.
01:19So Dakota, Scott, and Washington counties yesterday.
01:24I think those will probably be shifted to a winter weather advisory
01:28with these latest model trends.
01:29So let's take a look at what's going on with this system right now.
01:32It is still developing.
01:33We've got a low here centered over eastern Colorado
01:38and some moisture that looks like it's across Minnesota,
01:42but it's not quite reaching the ground yet.
01:44So what you see there across central Minnesota is snowfall aloft,
01:48not quite reaching the surface as we have some pretty dry air still.
01:53Actually, if we look at current dew points,
01:57we can see those are mostly in the 20s,
02:01while the actual temperatures are sitting in the 30s and 40s.
02:04So still some pretty dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
02:08Starting to warm up a bit in the 40s here across the Twin Cities at the moment,
02:13and a little bit of a northeast breeze.
02:15And this is not a good direction for trying to get those snowfall totals to expand
02:20for the north.
02:20A dry northeast wind can kind of really sharply cut off some of the totals
02:26on the back or on the north side of things.
02:28So this is the weather service forecast as of this morning.
02:31And again, I expect this to shift south and east too.
02:34You've probably been seeing big ranges on these.
02:37And that's because it really will be, or certainly has looked that way,
02:42that we will have some pretty big ranges of snowfall totals,
02:45especially across, again, the metro area.
02:46So this was their 6.53 a.m. update that had three to five inches
02:50in the core of the metro with four to eight in the southeast metro.
02:53But all of this has really shifted.
02:56And some of the models that can show this pretty well for us,
03:00this is the latest high-resolution rapid refresh model,
03:04which is showing that snowfall shift to the south and east here
03:08with still a very heavy swath.
03:09We're talking eight to 12 inches, potentially,
03:12across southeastern Minnesota, right over Rochester now.
03:15But this same model, if we look at the run from...
03:20Oh, first I'm going to switch this out here.
03:23If we look at the run from midnight, overnight, last night,
03:27still had the southeast metro in that two to six inch potential range
03:31with maybe a couple of inches right in the core of Minneapolis-St. Paul proper.
03:36The evening model run last night had six inches at MSP
03:41and maybe eight to ten inches in the southeast metro.
03:44So that has been a shift.
03:46So again, this was the 6 p.m. model run yesterday evening, Monday evening.
03:51And now the 6 a.m. model run this morning.
03:53You can see that shift here.
03:54And this is just one of several models showing the same thing.
03:58Our three kilometer North American model,
04:00the 12 kilometer, all showing the same thing there.
04:05And basically, just the American model still brings some snow,
04:10but even it has shifted farther to the southeast.
04:13This has been an outlier model the last couple of days for this particular storm.
04:17It has been way overdoing the totals.
04:19It's been having a foot of snow occasionally in the Twin Cities even.
04:23So this is a significant shift for the American model, too,
04:26to give us only six inches now,
04:27whereas let's just look at the evening model run yesterday.
04:31It gave us 13 inches of snow.
04:33So you get the idea here.
04:35All the models are trending south.
04:37If we look at the mean of the shorter term models,
04:43it is still kind of lagging as these models update.
04:46But even that has dropped to just about one to three inches for the metro.
04:51So we really are in a situation where this could be a boomer bust here
04:54and probably a bust the way it's looking right now.
04:59Let's see.
05:02I want to show you some probabilities based on the current models.
05:07Basically, there is a two thirds chance that we get more than zero inches of snow still.
05:13But even that could shift.
05:14We're at about the 50-50 probability mark for an inch of snow.
05:19Now, this is for Minneapolis-St. Paul proper.
05:20If you're in the southeast metro, still a better chance of getting a little bit of snow.
05:25But the higher end snowfall totals,
05:27the probabilities of those have really dropped off
05:29because of this big shift in the model trends here.
05:33And when we look at the weighted average of models,
05:35that's still lagging because it isn't including all the updated model runs yet.
05:40But it, too, has dropped to just four inches now for the Twin Cities.
05:45But again, if we go back in time to yesterday evening, it was giving us a half foot.
05:49So you get the idea.
05:51Again, here's the trend.
05:53And this is not accounting for all the morning model runs updates just yet.
05:58So I do think we'll continue to see those drop off.
06:00So it is entirely possible that if you live in Minneapolis-St. Paul,
06:04we might get zero, just some snow showers, but maybe no accumulating snow.
06:08And almost certainly now, if you're in the northwestern suburbs,
06:12just based upon what we're seeing here with all the model trends.
06:15The interesting one to see is what the latest European model shows.
06:18This is the overnight run.
06:20European model is one of the last model runs to finish its update.
06:24But even its 1 a.m. run overnight gave us a pretty stark amount of snow,
06:28just a dusting to a few tenths of an inch in the Twin Cities
06:31with maybe half inch to an inch in the southeast metro.
06:34But this, if it pans out the way it's looking right now,
06:38the European model may have nailed the storm before the other models
06:41by keeping consistently the heaviest snow swath to the southeast
06:46across southeastern Minnesota.
06:47But still looking like, you know, Faribault, Mankato, Rochester, Elbert, Lee,
06:52you guys are in for a pretty heavy snow.
06:54Again, if the high resolution rapid refresh model is correct,
06:58the HUR, we're talking about a big snow in Olmstead County
07:03that's in the 9, 10, 11 inches.
07:04Now there probably will be some melting and compacting
07:06because temperatures will be in the 30s overnight.
07:09But big shift here in the model trends over the last 24 hours, 12 hours even.
07:16But we are still looking at the possibility of a system coming in
07:19as we head into the weekend.
07:20I wanted to take a little bit of a glance at that.
07:23We'll put on the European model here Sunday, Monday next week.
07:29And again, don't get too excited because as we have seen,
07:32these things can shift even just in the hours before.
07:37So that's for this current system.
07:39European model keeping it further to the south.
07:43And then over the weekend, that looks kind of spotty now.
07:49European models going further south.
07:52American model still dumps some snow,
07:55but further north across northern Minnesota,
07:57maybe a couple of inches in southern Minnesota.
08:00Canadian model still gives us some snow.
08:02Again, this is Sunday across southeastern Minnesota.
08:04So still a mixed bag on that Sunday, Monday system.
08:07But again, the big headline is this current snowfall.
08:10All the models really trending southeast.
08:13So Twin Cities Metro, not saying we're out of the woods just yet,
08:17but I would watch for these advisories to really shift here.
08:20We're probably going to see all these things shift through the afternoon
08:22south and east with just a little bit of snow in the metro.
08:25And again, southeastern suburbs, still not out of the woods yet.
08:29You might still get a couple of inches there.
08:30But Rochester area, Elbertly, I would plan on a very heavy, wet snow.
08:36And then temperatures are going to be a little cooler here
08:38as we head into the next couple of days.
08:39Probably low 40s tomorrow, mid 40s heading into Thursday.
08:44So whatever snow any of us does get, we'll be melting.
08:4652 Friday, but generally cooler temperatures these next
08:50five to seven days from what we've gotten used to,
08:52which has been ridiculously above normal.
08:55These temperatures are all closer to normal,
08:57still actually slightly above.
08:59Normal highs about 43 going into the mid 40s next week.
09:02So can't complain about above normal temperatures too much
09:05if you're really got spring fever.
09:08But again, bigger story is missing that snow to the south and east here.
09:14If you're a snow lover, I'm sorry.
09:15Head to Rochester, but I think a lot of people have spring fever at this point.
09:19Much needed moisture though.
09:2069% of Minnesota still is in drought.
09:22And southeastern Minnesota, which is included in some of that drought category,
09:26looking to get a nice heavy wet snow late tonight into Wednesday.
09:33Can look at the timing of this for those that will be affected.
09:37Again, we're still seeing probably a few rain and snow showers.
09:41This is 11 p.m. this evening.
09:44Few snow showers across west central Minnesota.
09:46Not really amounting much though.
09:47The bigger snow really gets going early in the morning.
09:50So another thing is the delayed onset of this system.
09:52So this is 10 a.m. tomorrow.
09:55Heavy snow in southeastern Minnesota.
09:57It just gets to maybe Hastings there by the afternoon.
10:01And then really doesn't get farther north.
10:04And then wraps up even in southeastern Minnesota by evening tomorrow.
10:06Here's 8 p.m.
10:08It's pretty much done.
10:10And yeah, not getting much out of that.
10:15In the Twin Cities except for...
10:17Well, that's yesterday afternoon's run.
10:19Don't scare people there.
10:20Okay, yeah.
10:21So entirely possible we get zero.
10:23But I would still bank on a little bit of snow.
10:26But we're definitely gonna be watching the rest of the morning model runs in the midday
10:31model runs as it appears.
10:32This storm is definitely trending further south and southeast of the Twin Cities with
10:37a heavy snow and those blizzard conditions potentially here in south central Minnesota.
10:42Oh, that is one thing I want to look at is we're still going to be looking at
10:46a lot of wind here tomorrow.
10:48These are the wind gusts through Wednesday.
10:51Even in the Twin Cities, maybe up to 50 miles an hour.
10:53Maybe 50, 60 miles an hour there.
10:55These are maximum wind gusts forecast by this particular model for tomorrow.
10:59Might be a little high, but you get the idea.
11:01Very windy.
11:02So where we get that heavy snow set up, even if it's not a foot, even if it's six inches,
11:06say, blowing around, that's why we've got those blizzard warnings for south central
11:12and southeastern Minnesota.
11:13So winter's not done with us yet.
11:15Tomorrow's the last full day of winter.
11:18And then the vernal equinox is on Thursday.