Sam Bruchhaus from Sumer Sports joins G&D to discuss the NFL Draft, plus what the Commanders could do at pick 29.
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00:00Let's go to the RUDE guest hotline.
00:01RUDE, the most reliable heating and air conditioning products in the DMV.
00:06Sam Brookhouse of Sumer Sports joins us now.
00:09Sam, we're finally here, man, two days away from the NFL draft.
00:12What's good?
00:13Man, I'm getting Nancy.
00:14It seems like no one has an idea what's going to happen from pick two,
00:19which apparently is now on the block with reports that the Browns and the
00:24and the to trade as a, you know,
00:31a nihilistic analyst who always wants people to trade back at the beginning of
00:35the draft season or whether.
00:40Quarterback, it feels like two to 32 day one is going to be the wild west.
00:45And it hasn't been that way in years.
00:47So I'm excited for it.
00:48Oh, it's going to be incredible.
00:49I want to go back to what you just said, though,
00:51because I get myself in some trouble overanalyzing.
00:54The semantics of these things from time to time.
00:56But I thought that the Peter Schrager report on ESPN that you're referencing
01:00was a nothing burger non-report.
01:02He just said it in a way, like, very slowly that made it seem like he had news.
01:06But to me, he said that teams are calling the Browns at two
01:11and the Giants at three and they're not hanging up.
01:14Like, did I miss something?
01:15Of course they are.
01:16Why wouldn't they?
01:17And why would they hang up?
01:18That doesn't mean anything.
01:20So here's my kind of thought of it.
01:23And it really matters about two and three.
01:25And there's two pieces of information that I've kind of latched on to going even back
01:31into Shrine Bowl talks where Joe Shane and Brian Dayball were close to Shador Sanders.
01:37But if I have the number two pick and I'm the Browns and I know that I'm in an immensely
01:42analytical franchise, they employ the Jonah Hill character from Moneyball, Paul DePodesta.
01:49He is now a vice president, has been for many years for the Browns, immensely analytical.
01:54Andrew Barry has an analytical background as well.
01:57They're general manager.
01:58I am absolutely blowing up the Giants foam at three just to see if they want to draft a quarterback.
02:06And if they want to draft a quarterback, say, well, we're taking calls from the Steelers.
02:10We're taking calls from the Saints.
02:12Because if they can trade back one spot, get extra draft capital and still get Travis Hunter,
02:16who they've used, you know, the word Shohei Otani to compare to, that's a real win for me.
02:23So I think that's a lot of what's going on, probably, you know, even some maybe prank calling
02:28just to see what you could get.
02:30I mean, after all, Luka Doncic was traded this year, right?
02:33So who knows what could happen?
02:35But I think it is, to your point, kind of a lot of that, a lot of feeling out what could happen,
02:41seeing if there's any home runs out there.
02:43And if not, you just take the pitch and end up making the selection at two or three.
02:49So this reminds me of 22 here, Sam, in terms of the draft.
02:53Where there weren't any quarterbacks really highly thought of to go high.
02:56It was Trayvon Walker, one number one overall to the Jaguars.
02:59So this, we've got, I think we've got a pretty good feel.
03:01Tennessee wants Cam Ward, you know, maybe not a sexier film, but that's what we know.
03:05Just kind of your point.
03:06I really have no idea from two to three on.
03:09I think that influences everybody else.
03:11Like, do you get the sense that nobody really knows what Cleveland and New York are going to do?
03:16Or do you think maybe this is just his information of the last week to sort of see what happens?
03:21I'm kind of the mind that no one really knows what's going to happen.
03:25I think if you just were to look at the data, the consensus big boards, the consensus mock drafts,
03:31which, as you know, includes some beat reporters who may have more information on any given team
03:36and some evaluators who have more information from the scouts themselves.
03:41There's really a class of one at the top, and that's Travis Hunter.
03:44There's questions about guys like Abdul Carter, Will Campbell, Mason Graham, even Ashton Gentty,
03:50who most of the questions are about him at the running back position, just more generally in the first round.
03:55There's questions about that.
03:57So it seems like a class of one in Travis Hunter.
03:59So I think it would be okay if the Browns just went ahead and selected him.
04:03But I think there's a very, very unique thing that we really haven't seen, I guess,
04:08maybe since like the Daniel Jones draft, where quarterback one is very far away from consensus big board one,
04:15consensus big board one being Travis Hunter, Cam Ward being in like the 17s of most consensus big boards.
04:23Then you drop to like the 20s or 30s.
04:25That's another big gap down to Shador Sanders.
04:28And then you go to, you know, 50 day two or round two, round three, Jackson Dart.
04:33Those big gaps between the quarterbacks, the most important position in football, lead to so much uncertainty.
04:41I, for one, think it's probably a one or two quarterback first round.
04:46But guys like Thomas Dimitrov, who have sat in that seat, my boss, the president at Sumer Sports,
04:51he has sat in the seat, he has felt the quarterback pressure,
04:55and he has dealt with other people who are massively feeling the quarterback pressure as well
04:59when trying to make these calls on draft days.
05:01And on our SiriusXM show on Fridays, he said that he thinks it's going to be four guys,
05:07that the pressure is too high, these teams are too in need of quarterbacks,
05:11particularly the Steelers, the Saints, the Giants,
05:13and that they're going to pull the trigger when the time is right,
05:16whether that's trading up to get a guy at the back of the first round
05:19or just selecting him with their pick.
05:21He thinks there's going to be four guys.
05:23So to summarize, I think it's the Wild West out there.
05:27No one knows, and everyone is operating with a degree of uncertainty,
05:31and they're really going to have to bet on their analytics teams
05:34and their evaluators to get a sense of the availability of these quarterbacks
05:38if they want to try to grab one, whether that's day one or day two.
05:42Would the fourth be Milrow?
05:45Now that is an excellent question.
05:48Coming out of the Senior Bowl, it felt as if he was the clear fourth, right?
05:52In recent weeks, everything from betting odds, the poly market,
05:58prediction markets have massively shifted because he's attending the draft.
06:04And the NFL has said that they don't want guys attending the draft
06:07who will not be selected.
06:09They invited him to the draft.
06:11Do they know something we don't know?
06:13Now all of a sudden, he seems to have the best tools,
06:17especially running the ball out of any of these quarterbacks.
06:20That shows up in our Sumer AI, Sumer scores,
06:23talking about running the ball at the quarterback position.
06:26Do the Steelers like him because he can have more tools
06:29than Justin Fields did last year, more tools than Russell Wilson did last year?
06:33I don't know.
06:34Clearly, there is something that we don't understand
06:36when it comes to Jalen Milrow.
06:37But what I can say, he struggled with accuracy this year.
06:41He took a lot of sacks, even though he was pretty good
06:43at avoiding what should have been clear sacks.
06:47And he just wasn't immensely productive through the air
06:50despite having Alabama, having Ryan Williams out there
06:54at the wide receiver position.
06:55So I think right now he has to be in the QB3 discussion with Jackson Dart.
07:00And he is certainly probably quarterback four.
07:03Sam Brookhouse, Sumer Sports with us here on G&D.
07:06So looking big picture, I get the sense this could be seven,
07:11maybe eight defensive ends or edges.
07:13I guess now we have to refer to them as guys that rush the passer for a living
07:16might come off the board here in the first round.
07:18The reason I bring that up, A, just as a phenomenon,
07:21but B, that might be what Washington is looking for
07:24at the end of that first round.
07:25Your thoughts on this edge market?
07:28It's very unique, and it brings about a question
07:32that us data scientists like to always get into when it comes to the draft.
07:36And that is, how do we know that any given one of these guys
07:40will be better than all the rest?
07:42So it seems as if Abdul Carter has set himself apart.
07:46He did so with excellent play.
07:48He was one of the most disruptive pass rushers in the league,
07:52in the NCAA this year, was an immense part of a Penn State team
07:57that made a deep run in the college football playoffs.
07:59But how do we know that he's better than any of the other seven
08:02that people really think are primo prospects?
08:04And the difference really is that he has less questions.
08:09Everyone kind of in that second tier has a big question,
08:12whether that's Jalen Walker.
08:14Can he make the move from the off-ball linebacking position
08:17to the edge rushing position full-time, if that's possible?
08:21To Mike Green.
08:23Did it at Marshall?
08:24Can he do it at the NFL?
08:25Shamar Stewart.
08:26Excellent in our Sumer scores, which grade on the frame-by-frame basis,
08:30but not super productive.
08:32Not a lot of tackles for loss, not a lot of sacks.
08:35Every one of those guys has a key question,
08:37but I think really a lot of them could be real contributors
08:41if they fall into the right situation for them
08:44that can answer those questions.
08:46When I'm talking to the scouts that we have on our team,
08:48when I'm talking to Thomas Dimitrov,
08:50they say that you scout for what the guy can do,
08:54not for what he can't do.
08:56Because good coaches and good front offices
08:59is build around what the guys can't do
09:01to accentuate what they can do.
09:04And I got to tell you, seven to eight of these guys,
09:06including if you want to include Jihad Campbell,
09:09who is probably a true off-ball linebacker
09:11but does have edge rushing upside,
09:14have a lot of things that they can do really well.
09:16Sam Brookhouse is with us,
09:19joining us ahead of the NFL draft from Sumer Sports.
09:22So a guy that I keep coming back to
09:24when I try to do the Venn diagram here
09:26of who's likely to be available
09:28and who do I think Washington likes
09:30based on what I'm hearing
09:31is Nick Scorton.
09:34Started at Purdue, finished at A&M,
09:36ended up having just five sacks this season,
09:39but he did have a 10-sack year two years ago
09:40in the Big Ten.
09:42What can you tell me about him
09:43and what would you think about him
09:44as a pick for Washington at 29?
09:47So it's an interesting setup
09:48with these defensive linemen from Texas A&M.
09:51In particular, you'll hear some names
09:53from these defensive lines that have a ton of studs.
09:57The first one you mentioned,
09:58Nick Scorton, Texas A&M.
09:59Shamar Stewart was on that line.
10:01Shamar Turner, who will be drafted
10:02probably day two or day three,
10:04also on that line.
10:06Michigan and Ole Miss, similar things.
10:08Walter Nolan will probably be available
10:10in that zone, defensive tackle out of Ole Miss.
10:13But with Scorton in particular,
10:16immensely productive at Purdue,
10:18something that I'm really interested in
10:19is his run defending capability.
10:21High tackle for loss rate
10:24when you're looking at all the snaps that he took
10:26and the production that he got against the run.
10:28I think his ability to be a bigger edge rusher
10:32who could potentially play the run super well
10:35while also providing some pass rush upside
10:37is key for his projection.
10:39And I think he probably could fit into,
10:43you know, a team like Dan Quinn's defense
10:46and the commander's defense.
10:47A guy who has been falling, though,
10:49is named James Pierce out of Tennessee.
10:51Edge rusher has likely been falling
10:53due to off-the-field concerns,
10:55which I'm not a private investigator.
10:58I don't have all the data
10:59when it comes to, you know,
11:00the record or anything that these guys are hiring
11:03people to dig up information on.
11:06But what I can say is,
11:08this time last year,
11:10he was expected to be one of the top guys
11:11in the draft.
11:12And at the end of the year,
11:14at the end of the season this year,
11:15he was still considered to be a top-five,
11:17top-ten level player.
11:18He's dropped since the combine,
11:20even though he had an excellent combine.
11:22The pieces are all there.
11:24You got to put him in a position
11:26which makes sense to, you know,
11:29nerf some of those character concerns
11:32or effort concerns.
11:33And who better than Dan Quinn to do that?
11:35Bringing in a speed rusher,
11:37we've seen him do it with Dorrance Armstrong.
11:38We saw him do it with Michael Parsons.
11:40I think it'd be a great fit, James Pierce,
11:42if he ends up falling to the commanders,
11:45if they end up filling that edge role
11:47with James Pierce.
11:49So, Sam, help me with the Texas A&M defense events.
11:51Why do they have, like,
11:53a sack and a half more than I do this year?
11:55Is there something schematic-wise?
11:57Like, the score, especially,
11:59but I really want to go to Shamar Stewart,
12:00who is, like, off the world
12:02or out of this world combine measurements
12:04and athletic scores and things
12:05where you go,
12:06oh, my God, look at this.
12:07And then, again,
12:08he had a sack more than a guy
12:09selling popcorn in Section 415.
12:11Why so little productivity in that regard
12:13from those defensive ends?
12:15I would just feel a lot more confident
12:16in a draft than either one of them
12:17had they ended up in the 5 or 6 range.
12:20Now, I'm not talking about even a world beater,
12:21just something more there.
12:23So, I want to start off at the high level.
12:25Data analysts have found,
12:27research has found,
12:29that sometimes when you're looking at sacks
12:31or just production,
12:32that it doesn't go year-to-year super well.
12:35So, a guy, for example,
12:37in college who has a million sacks
12:39may not have a million sacks
12:41if he's really converting
12:42every pressure he gets.
12:43What we really want to know
12:44is how much he's beating
12:45the offensive linemen
12:47and how many pressures,
12:49which is a kind of subjective measure,
12:50but basically a measure of
12:51how is he disrupting the pass
12:54or even though he may not
12:55necessarily be getting a hit.
12:58Basically, what can he do by himself
13:00to cause problems?
13:01All of those guys
13:02are very good at doing that.
13:04There was some schematic
13:05interesting elements.
13:07For example,
13:08Shamar Stewart,
13:09bigger guy.
13:10I think he looked more
13:11like 280.
13:12He weighed in at 267
13:13at the combine.
13:14I think he was probably playing
13:15at more around 280 at A&M.
13:18He was lining out
13:19to what we call the four-eye,
13:20the inside eye of the tackle.
13:22A lot harder to rush
13:23the passer there
13:24because you're not getting
13:25those one-on-one matchups.
13:26Sometimes the guard can help.
13:27Sometimes the center can help.
13:29That positional versatility
13:30is really valuable to teams,
13:33but it doesn't show up
13:34super well on the stat sheet
13:36that you get in your local newspaper
13:38when I'm talking sacks and tackles.
13:40As a result,
13:41when you look at the frame-by-frame,
13:42millisecond-by-millisecond level,
13:45he was immensely productive
13:46and he was doing really good things
13:48in our artificial intelligence
13:50Sumer scores
13:51even though it did not show up
13:53in the sack total.
13:55But sometimes you've got to go down to it.
13:57You know, like bringing it back
13:58to money ball,
13:59if he can hit so well,
14:00how come he doesn't hit good?
14:02He's going to have to turn
14:03a little bit more
14:04of that into production
14:05at the next level,
14:06but the question becomes,
14:07will he just be in a better position
14:09to do so
14:10in an NFL defense
14:12than he was necessarily
14:13lining up in the three-tech
14:14and the four-eye all the time
14:16because of the talent
14:17on that Texas A&M defensive line
14:19that could just completely dominate
14:21with pretty base techniques
14:23offensive linemen
14:24at the college level.
14:26Sam Brookhouse,
14:27you see why we enjoy
14:28his insight from Sumer Sports.
14:30We're going to hear from Adam Peters
14:31in about an hour,
14:32so we're looking forward
14:33to seeing what he has to say
14:34about pick 29 should be fun.
14:36Last one for me,
14:38trading back out of that round,
14:40this narrative that people
14:41are going to want to come up
14:42to get the quarterback
14:42to get the fifth-year option,
14:44I can't even think of
14:45really an example of that
14:46in the last couple picks
14:47post-Lamar Jackson,
14:49but every team always
14:49wants to trade back, right?
14:51I mean, I'm sure the Chiefs
14:51have liked the idea
14:52of trading back for years.
14:54They haven't been able
14:54to pull the trigger.
14:56Should we expect
14:56that Washington can do that?
14:59I'd suspect so.
15:00Well, I've struggled
15:02to find trade partners per se,
15:04but here is probably
15:06the profile of a team
15:07that wants to trade up.
15:08The first is going to be
15:10a team that needs a tackle.
15:12There's only a couple guys
15:14who people really slate
15:15to not be a swing
15:16offensive lineman
15:17in this draft, period.
15:18Some people even think
15:19Will Campbell and Armand Minbu
15:20all the way up at the top
15:21will probably end up
15:23being a guard
15:23at the next level.
15:24I don't necessarily agree
15:25with that.
15:26We've talked to Duke
15:26Manyweather, their trainer.
15:28He doesn't seem to think
15:29that the data doesn't
15:30seem to indicate that,
15:31but that's just the general
15:32thought to give you an idea.
15:34In the back half
15:35of that first round,
15:36there's going to be
15:36a couple of guys
15:37who are going to be
15:38in discussions
15:38to be a true tackle.
15:40That's Josh Connerly
15:41out of Oregon,
15:43Simmons out of Ohio State,
15:46and probably Ariante Ursary,
15:47who is going to be
15:48more of a borderline
15:49day two guy
15:50out of Minnesota.
15:51If those guys
15:52start coming off the board,
15:53I'd suspect a team
15:55who really needs a tackle
15:56to kind of want to move up.
15:58The Chiefs are an example
15:59of this.
16:00If those guys start going,
16:01I wouldn't be shocked
16:02if they try to move up
16:03two or three picks
16:03as they did last year
16:05for Xavier Worthy
16:05in order to secure a guy
16:07that they think
16:08is going to be a tackle
16:09at the next level.
16:10The second,
16:11we talked about a little bit,
16:13those edges,
16:13after those seven
16:14to eight edges,
16:15if they all go
16:16in the first round,
16:17there's not going to be
16:18a lot more in that market
16:19until probably round three
16:21or round four.
16:23And once you get
16:23into round three
16:24and round four,
16:24there starts to be
16:25a lot of question marks
16:26about those guys.
16:27So that's the profile
16:29of a team
16:29that the commanders
16:30may want to look at.
16:31A team perhaps
16:32looking to grab an edge
16:33before they all run out
16:34day one
16:35or a tackle
16:36before they all run out
16:37day one.
16:38If they end up doing that,
16:40I would suspect them
16:41to try to go
16:42with a secondary player.
16:44Primarily the cornerbacks
16:45in this draft.
16:46I'm talking
16:46Savon Revell,
16:48Benjamin Morrison,
16:49all guys that
16:49struggled with injury
16:51but appear to have
16:52a borderline blue chip
16:55just performance element
16:57to them
16:57or athletic element
16:58to them
16:59despite the major question
17:00what's dropping them
17:01down to an
17:02into a different tier
17:03is a major injury.
17:04I suspect they end up
17:05going secondary
17:06if they end up
17:07trading back
17:08and allowing a team
17:09to select with their pick.
17:11Sam, great with us
17:11as always, man.
17:12Appreciate the time, man.
17:12Enjoy the draft.
17:14Appreciate it, y'all.
17:14I'm excited.
17:15Sumer Sports,
17:16go check them out.
17:17Sam Brookhouse
17:17joining us
17:18on Grant and Danny.