Exclusive new data from the nation's largest GP college suggests the signature health policies in this election campaign could fail to deliver as promised. The government's pledged nine out of ten GP appointments will be free of charge by the end of the decade under an incentives scheme that has been matched by the coalition. But a majority of doctors say they can't afford to make the change, and patients will be disappointed.
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00:00An hour before Mudgee Medical Centre opens, patients are already lining up.
00:07This is my third day here waiting, so I've been here since 10 to 7 waiting
00:11because the line-up usually gets so big, you've got no chance.
00:14The town in Central West New South Wales only has two GP clinics
00:18for the region's 20,000 residents.
00:20Sorry, we're completely booked out, there's nothing left at all.
00:23And bulk billing is limited.
00:25For me, I have to pay for myself, but my little one, she gets bulk billed.
00:29It would be nice, a bit more government assistance.
00:32More government assistance is on offer from whichever party wins the next election.
00:37By 2030, we want 9 out of every 10 visits to the GP to be bulk billed.
00:46We will support them fixing the mess.
00:49But doctors say the $8.5 billion incentive scheme to expand bulk billing
00:54will leave them out of pocket.
00:56This practice says it would lose $21 per consult.
00:59There is an expense to running a practice that we can't afford if we bulk billed everybody.
01:04The Royal College of GPs has found two thirds won't bulk bill more patients.
01:09Not everyone is going to get bulk billed just because these incentives have been increased
01:13because the Medicare rebates aren't covering the true costs of delivering care.
01:17The ABC also polled more than 800 doctors.
01:20At least 90% said they won't shift to exclusively bulk billing either.
01:26They worry it'll increase the financial burden, reduce staff incomes and incentivise shorter
01:31consults if rebates don't increase for longer appointments.
01:35But some clinic operators welcome the changes.
01:38We're expecting to move to about six in every 10 practices that will only bulk bill.
01:45That's versus one in every 10 practices today.
01:48So it's a six fold increase.
01:51What we've done is calculate that 4,800 practices,
01:55that's about three quarters of general practices in the country,
01:59would be better off financially by moving to a full bulk billing model.
02:03The reality is any increase in bulk billing will leave patients better off.
02:08But unless doctors embrace the plan,
02:10the promise that nine out of 10 GP visits will be free can't be delivered.