“Direct support to Pakistan…”, Foreign affairs expert analyses China’s role in wake of Pahalgam attack

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New Delhi, April 30, 2025 (ANI): “Direct support to Pakistan…”, Foreign affairs expert analysed China’s role in wake of Pahalgam attack.

Transcript

00:00He said that there should be a swift and fair investigation into the Palgaum terror attacks.

00:08That is quite strange because when the Urumqi incident happened in 2009,

00:15the Chinese did not allow for any global investigators to go into the terror incidents.

00:221965 India-Pakistan War, 1971 War, Kargil War in the 90s.

00:30When you look at these incidents, China had supported Pakistan indirectly.

00:35Of course, 2025 they may directly support inside the territories of China or Pakistan.

00:42Instead of being a defensive, we are now planning for an offensive campaign.

00:47Sir, recently this Palgaum attack has happened and after that there is an ongoing

00:54tussle or you can say a layer-up between India and Pakistan.

00:59You being a Chinese expert, how do you look at China's position in this?

01:03Because China has been always a friend for Pakistan and openly or closely they are supporting Pakistan always.

01:12How do you look at the position?

01:15Well, the Chinese spokesperson Mr. Kuo had condemned the incident that happened on April 22nd.

01:23He had also said that they expressed sympathies to the victims etc.

01:28So those cordial things have been mentioned.

01:32However, there was no support extended to India.

01:38Like President Putin mentioned, like other leaders have mentioned.

01:45The Foreign Minister of China spoke to his Pakistani counterpart Mr. Dar on April 27th, three days ago.

01:55And in this he said that there should be a swift and fair investigation into the Palgaum terror attacks.

02:05Now that is quite strange because when the Urumqi incident happened in 2009,

02:12the Chinese did not allow for any global investigators to go into the terror incidents.

02:19Likewise, when COVID-19 erupted in China, there was no investigation despite Australian Prime Minister seeking for an investigation into the origins of the virus.

02:32So, if the Chinese have not allowed for an investigation, this suggestion looks quite strange and also problematic.

02:47Secondly, the Pakistanis were allowed by India after the Patankot terror incident when the airbase incident happened.

02:59So we allowed a Pakistani expert group to come and investigate.

03:04After that they did not release any report regarding the Patankot.

03:09And then also there was no major consequence after the investigation was done in countering terrorists or in addressing the issue of terrorism itself.

03:24Though the Chinese offer then looks like more buying time and stalling any action that the Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi had promised in the Bihar election campaign.

03:38When he said that we will pursue, we will have a hard pursuit of the terrorists or their backers.

03:43So, the Chinese suggestion then looks like more buying time rather than either supporting India on the counter-terrorism effort

03:55or in pursuing this matter in terms of the 1267 Committee of the United Nations Security Council.

04:03So, all this suggests that the all-weather friendship which was reiterated in Wang Yi's speech with the Pakistanis, that is intact.

04:14And that means that we should not expect any Chinese support for the counter-terrorism related matters with China.

04:24Sir, apart from the counter-terrorism cooperation, do you also expect in case there is a bigger flare up from the Indian side or hot pursuit as promised by the time,

04:35do you think China is going to militarily or financially or in a resource sharing with Pakistan?

04:43If you look at the history, 1965 India-Pakistan War, 1971 War, Kargil War in the 90s.

04:55When you look at these incidents, China had supported Pakistan indirectly, not directly,

05:02meaning opening another front, that is the Northern Front, the border front with India.

05:09They have released Yaks during the 1971 campaign.

05:13They have demanded India to withdraw troops from Sikkim in the 1965 war.

05:21During Kargil, they have trained the Pakistan Air Force at Skardu Airfield when we had the Kargil incident.

05:31So these appear then indirect support to Pakistan.

05:36Of course, 2025 they may directly support.

05:40However, there are, for the reasons that CPAC has already been in place, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,

05:49they have spent $52 billion on this.

05:52And even though the Chinese themselves have a terrorism problem with Pakistan,

05:59because 34 Chinese people were killed in Pakistan in 14 incidents in the last four years.

06:08So they have a grouse on their own.

06:11Global Times, when the Dasu hydroelectricity project blast took place, killing nine people in 2021,

06:21the Global Times said that China should launch missiles on the terrorist camps in Pakistan.

06:30While the Chinese themselves say they should have a hard pursuit, including use of missiles,

06:38they today do not want India to take similar action on Pakistan.

06:44It indicates then the reluctance, but also possibly indirect to direct support to Pakistan in future,

06:52if the Indian side opens a hard pursuit within Pakistan.

06:57So this is one factor.

07:00The second factor is, as part of the CPAC, China has 36,000 security guards in Pakistan.

07:07They have nearly 20,000 Chinese workers in different parts of Pakistan on the CPAC-related issues,

07:17or other construction jobs like in Gwadar, like in other places.

07:23So if there is a crossfire between India and Pakistan, if there are Chinese casualties,

07:30because many of these are located in the border areas, like the CPAC projects.

07:37If such a situation happens, it is likely that China may play more direct role in the India-Pakistan upcoming conflict.

07:47Sir, can we also expect a two-side war, which always is feared by a military establishment?

07:55In 2009, the Indian armed forces now began to shift towards the two-front war under nuclear threshold.

08:05And since then, we started deploying S-400 ballistic missile in between Pakistan and China,

08:14somewhere in Jammu and Kashmir or Himachal.

08:17We do not know exact location of these batteries, but we deployed two counter.

08:22Secondly, we also have strike corps on China, strike corps on Pakistan.

08:28These are basically meant for taking the war inside the territories of China or Pakistan.

08:34Instead of being a defensive, we are now planning for an offensive campaign with these measures.

08:41So, in the light of the 2009 shift from Pakistan to China and also to two-front war under nuclear threshold,

08:52Indian armed forces are now preparing for that kind of a contingency since 2009.

08:58The current Pahalgaon incident suggests that China doesn't like the Indian preparation.

09:05So, China wants to confine India to the South Asia box.

09:10And the Pahalgaon incident suggests there is a grand plan that China and Pakistan are actually hatching.

09:19Can you elaborate on the first plan?

09:24During the Cold War, all the Chinese texts, speeches, important documents,

09:33they all mention India is an important country in South Asia, like the Americans used to say.

09:42But then the 1-2-3 agreement and other nuclear agreements with the United States

09:48and the foundational agreements we signed with the United States

09:51removed that aspect of confining India to the South Asia box.

09:56However, the Chinese still continue with this discourse that India is an important country in South Asia,

10:04meaning it is not an important country in the rest of the world, but only confined to South Asia.

10:09China also began a trans-Himalayan quadrilateral dialogue with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nepal.

10:21And they conduct the Shichang trans-Himalayan conferences.

10:28Four of these were held with the countries of trans-Himalayan region excluding India.

10:34So this is the diplomatic effort.

10:39At the military level, nearly 60% of all Chinese arms transfer abroad have landed in Pakistan,

10:50including last week's PL-15 air-to-air missiles.

10:56Incidentally, this PL missile was developed with Israeli support.

11:05The Chinese have got these missiles from Israeli collaboration.

11:09Today they are giving it to Pakistan in order to counter the Rafale aircraft that India has deployed and acquiring.

11:19Which means that both militarily as well as diplomatically, China intends to confine India to the South Asia bloc.

11:31And of course, at a $4 trillion economy, you cannot be confined to a small region.

11:37You have to trade with every other country.

11:39But there is this effort to confine to South Asia.

11:44Sir, what options do you think India will have?

11:48I think one is, of course, India has to resolve the terrorism issue, hot pursuit by other means.

11:58We have indicated before, after the Pulwama attack, the Balakot strikes.

12:04So this is one option, which indicates basically that we will have to cross the line of control,

12:12which in any case is abolished by the Pakistani announcement of the de-recognition of the Shimla Pact,

12:21which brought in the line of control.

12:24So this is no holds barred now in terms of the crossing over into the POK and other areas.

12:34So that is one option that already indicates.

12:37The second is, as the Prime Minister yesterday mentioned,

12:41a free hand is given to the Indian Armed Forces to resolve what they want to in the best of the circumstances,

12:52which means that there is a tactical action that Indian Armed Forces can take,

12:59both the Navy, Air Force, but most importantly the Army, can take on the Pakistani front.

13:06So it is a very clear message.

13:08If you remember, the Prime Minister mentioned a similar thing when Galwan happened.

13:14So we may expect this to continue for some time on what exactly the action that India will take.

13:24The third option obviously is putting pressure on Pakistan on the diplomatic isolation and other fora.

13:34Of course, the Pakistanis are part of the United Nations Security Council permanent group.

13:44As a part of rotation, they have become one, and they diluted the resolution on the Behlgaum incident.

13:53And so there is, India needs to further these with the other P4 members, permanent 4 members, like Russia, US, Britain and France.

14:06Because last time, when such an incident happened, the Chinese raised the Kashmir issue in the Security Council.

14:14Secondly, in the 1267 Al-Qaeda committee meeting, they have not endorsed the Indian dossiers on Zakirul Rahman, Masud Azhar or other terrorists based in Pakistan.