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00:00So let's move to the nine now, and this one is Tenma, who comes in from the West Coast, and she's been really impressive.
00:06She's won five of her six starts.
00:08She's won three in a row, but if you look at the field sizes that she's been facing and the races that she's been in, Alexa, she's never been in a field bigger than seven, and this is another one of those small fields that she's winning this race.
00:22This is the Santa Anita Oaks.
00:24It was only a field of five.
00:25She beat two other horses in the Las Virginas.
00:29So if you put the last two races together, there have only been a total of eight horses, and she's going to face 12 others in this field.
00:38So it might not be as easy for her as it's been out West where she gets to kind of beat up on horses that she's obviously better than.
00:45She's going to really face some tough customers in here.
00:48Yeah, we see that a lot with these horses who are coming from California because this is her first time outside of California, and California racing just generally has a smaller field, especially at Santa Anita.
00:58So, yeah, it's interesting.
01:01She's a four-times graded stakes winner, which is probably a better record than a lot of the other horses in here.
01:06But like you're saying, she hasn't really beaten that many horses.
01:09But she has had some really fast speed figures.
01:12I think if she can repeat her very best performance, she could be a real-deal contender in here.
01:18She's in for Bob Baffert, too, who's back in the game after a couple years of not being in the Oaks and Derby.
01:25The number 10 is trained by the trainer of last year's Kentucky Oaks winner and is ridden by the rider of last year's Kentucky Oaks winner.
01:33Same rider, same jockey, same trainer.
01:36And that was Torpedo Anna.
01:37This is Take Charge, my lady.
01:39Alexa, every time I say this, I say my lady to you.
01:42I feel like we've talked about her 25 times through the different months.
01:46But she is a horse who ran second in the Ashland behind La Cara.
01:50So we saw the video of her a little bit earlier on.
01:53She fits really well with this group.
01:55And if there is a good amount of early speed, I can see her closing.
01:59I don't really have many knocks on her.
02:01It's just that she did have a couple of small issues in the mornings, like training coming up into the race.
02:06Things that weren't the biggest deal.
02:08But you just, you want horses to be coming into this race with everything going well.
02:12Yeah, you do.
02:13Thank you, my man.
02:15No, that didn't work.
02:17I love it.
02:18Okay, so she, yeah, she won back-to-back races in January at Oak Climb.
02:23And then totally flopped, right, in the grade 300 B in February.
02:26And she encountered traffic there.
02:27And when you're a closing horse, that's always going to be a risk.
02:30You're going to have to run horses down and pass them.
02:32And if you don't have a clear path, you're going to have a clear path.
02:35So that's something she'll just always have to face because of her running style.
02:40But like you said, then came back and ran in the Ashland.
02:42A keen one and got second place.
02:43And her workouts, I think, show her to be pretty tuned up and ready.
02:46So I also like that she's won in the mud before considering the forecast.
02:50So I do think Chick Charge Milady is a contender.
02:54Good cheer is just awesome.
02:56She's run six times.
02:57She's won all six times.
02:59It's never been closer than, like, two-plus lengths.
03:02She's beat every horse she's ever faced by at least two lengths.
03:06So she's never really been tested.
03:08But this will be the toughest group she's ever faced in a really big field.
03:12And she is drawn towards the outside.
03:14So there are a couple things that you can kind of maybe poke holes in if you're trying to beat her.
03:19But you can't poke holes in her overall resume.
03:22She is absolutely perfect so far.
03:24And she's no doubt the one they're all going to have to beat, Alexa.
03:27Yeah, she's done nothing wrong.
03:28So the horse who's been closest to her is Quiet Side, who's the 14 here that we'll get to.
03:34And she ran up to two and a half lengths behind her.
03:37But like you said, these other wins have come six, eight, 17 lengths in front of the others.
03:42So her speed figures, though, are comparable with other horses in here.
03:46So on paper, she's not running, like, blazing, you know, figures that no one can contend with.
03:52But when you look at the actual finish positions, I mean, she is kind of blowing them down.
03:56So I think she's the one to beat, but also her odds match that, right?
04:01She's got a Morgan line of six to five, which is basically even money.
04:05And I imagine we'll go off at even money.
04:08So if you're trying to leverage and get some value out of here, you're probably going to try to beat her.
04:13Yeah, and kind of like we were talking about with Tenma, she's not been in that small of fields,
04:17but she's never been in a field bigger than eight.
04:20And this will be a little bit bigger.
04:22Maybe she has to deal with some traffic and things just aren't quite as easy for her.
04:25Anna's Promise has some good early speed.
04:28I just couldn't quite get there with her.
04:30But her most recent form is very good.
04:33Her last three races in a row are solid.
04:35This is just a pretty big class step up.
04:37Yeah, I mean, she's improved every out.
04:40And so I don't think there's a reason to believe we've seen her ceiling yet.
04:43This will also be the longest she's ever gone.
04:47But 0 for 3 at Churchill.
04:49So has not performed well.
04:51I mean, she's had a couple second places, but still hasn't been able to find the winner's circle at Churchill.
04:55So I think she would need her absolute best for this to be an attainable spot for her.
05:00Bless the Broken is the number 13.
05:02She won impressively on a synthetic surface.
05:05So not a dirt surface, not a turf surface.
05:07It's different than that.
05:08And this won't be that surface.
05:10So I'm a little bit wary, but she does come in at a big price.
05:14Can you make a case for her?
05:16I mean, she's talented, but, you know, her wins, like you said, are coming on synthetic or at lower levels.
05:21So I think this is probably too tall of an ask.
05:24And your top selection, I believe, rounds out the field.
05:26Quiet side.
05:27While she has been defeated by Good Cheer before, she's just in great form right now.
05:33She is improving.
05:34Her last two races at Oak Lawn were so nice.
05:38She has speed, but she doesn't really need the lead.
05:40She can sit off.
05:41And she's a fighter.
05:42We've seen her have to battle and win those battles.
05:45Talk to us a little more about your top pick.
05:46Yeah, I mean, she's never been off the board.
05:48I don't think that's going to change.
05:50She's super consistent.
05:51She's shown that she can handle the mud as well in the grade one spin away last August.
05:56And like you said, the horse that's gotten closest to Good Cheer so far.
05:59So if anybody's going to beat her, I think she has the best chance of doing it.
06:04So how did you stack them, Alexa?
06:06Because when we return from this break, we're going to talk about how we're betting the Kentucky Oaks.
06:10Yeah, I have quiet side over Good Cheer.
06:12And then the two simply joking and the seven La Cara.