Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria praised the government's move to pause the Indus Waters Treaty, calling it a "serious" and "huge step" against Pakistan over its support for terrorism.
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00:00Good evening. With clinical precision, India is taking multiple steps to impose unaffordable costs on that radical Islamist terror state, Pakistan.
00:13That is India's effort to ensure that there is no pehelgaam that happens once again.
00:20Even if it means you put sanctions on the Pakistani military jihad complex and that includes Pakistan army generals.
00:27That's the effort. Will it succeed or not? We do not know.
00:30But the effort is there. What else is happening? I'll tell you over the course of the next one hour on India First.
00:39Prime Minister Chayar's key security meets.
00:47India plans action against Pakistan.
00:55Defence Minister makes intent clear.
00:57All eyes on India's response.
01:15Nervous Pakistan warmongers.
01:18India's Pakistan punishment.
01:26Big focus on India First.
01:28The indications are all there.
01:36That cryptic message from Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
01:39Jaisa aap chahate hain, waisa hi ho ga.
01:43And the Pakistan armed forces are on tenterhooks.
01:46They're actually guessing where the retribution will come from.
01:49Will it be a surgical strike?
01:51Will it be on land?
01:51Will it come from the air?
01:52Will it be sea or will it be under sea this time?
01:56Now, India's also systematically rallying global support.
02:00Getting global heads of states and government to realise that a terrorist state cannot be and must not be supported.
02:08It must be actioned against.
02:11There's another effort.
02:13From the International Monetary Fund to the Asia Development Bank.
02:17Efforts are being made to ensure that funds that are given for development of Pakistan are not diverted for these military jihad complex, for the radical Islamist terrorists.
02:26So, a fund squeeze for proper Pakistan.
02:29That's the effort.
02:31Now, can Pakistan once again be put on the Financial Action Task Force's grey list?
02:35And amongst all of this, so while some action is happening on the Indus Waters Treaty, when will kinetic action take place?
02:42Will that happen?
02:43Ambassador Ajay Bisaria is India's former High Commissioner to Pakistan.
02:47And he was the High Commissioner at the time of the Pulwama terror attacks in 2019 and the Balakot airstrikes.
02:53He joins me on India's coercive diplomacy then and now.
02:59I'm Gaurav Sawant.
03:00As always, let's get started with the headlines on India First.
03:09Amit's rising India-Pakistan tensions.
03:12Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds a series of very critical meetings with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval,
03:19with Defence Secretary, with the Home Secretary.
03:21The Kashmir ground situation and the next course of action against the terror state discussed.
03:34India moves to systematically squeeze Pakistan dry.
03:39Downstream flow from dams on Chinab reduced.
03:42Work of six hydropower projects accelerated.
03:46This after New Delhi suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.
03:50Kept in abeyance.
03:58Politics erupts in Kashmir after a suspected terrorist is seen jumping to his death and drowning in Kashmir.
04:05Police say he was detained for questioning over alleged terror links.
04:09Mehbooban Mufti calls it custodial death demands compensation.
04:20Politics continues over Pahalgaam terror attack.
04:23Congress leader Ajay Rai mocks India's response.
04:27says Rafal's remain unused.
04:30BJP hits back claims Congress leaders are making headlines in Pakistan.
04:41Russia backs India's fight against radical Islamist terror.
04:45Vladimir Putin tells Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a phone call
04:49that perpetrators of Pahalgaam terror attack must be brought to justice and their packers.
05:06India is also now preparing our civilians.
05:09They have to be ready.
05:10They have to be prepared.
05:11Because a Pakistani attack could even target civilian areas.
05:16And there is a clear indication that India's preparations to dismantle Pakistan's military jihad network
05:21isn't just restricted to military response.
05:25There could be an escalation.
05:27Now, when India takes that action against Pakistan's military jihad complex,
05:34Pakistan's army will strike India.
05:37It may strike a civilian area.
05:40That escalation ladder could see India striking multiple locations in Pakistan in response.
05:45And then Pakistan could strike civilian areas in India and even more areas.
05:51There are, in the military parlance, between 40 and 44 rungs of the escalation ladder.
05:57Now, the army has war-gamed.
05:59India is on top of that escalation ladder.
06:01But the whole-of-the-nation approach is required
06:04because the Pakistanis, in an attempt to put more pressure on India to de-escalate,
06:10could start targeting civilian areas.
06:12Remember, for decades, they have targeted civilians in India,
06:15whether it's 26-11 Mumbai terror attacks or the recent Pahlgaam terror attacks.
06:20Pakistan knows militarily, each time it strikes, there's massive consequences for Pakistan.
06:26But it wants to strike civilians in civilian areas.
06:28And it has singled out Hindus to target in Pahlgaam.
06:31The Ministry of Home Affairs has now directed states to start conducting mock drills.
06:37Start training people where to go in case there's a bomb or a missile strike by Pakistan.
06:45And there will be a civil defence exercise on the 7th of May.
06:49So, what are measures that are to be undertaken?
06:51Let me give you some details of measures that the government has mandated.
06:55Must be taken.
06:57Operationalised air raid warning sirens.
06:59Remember when I was reporting from Ukraine, Russia, and when I was reporting from Israel,
07:05each time a Hamas rocket came in, that was an air raid siren.
07:10That siren alerts you to rush to the nearest air raid shelter.
07:15But what do you do in India?
07:16Where is it that you need to head?
07:18Those are certain drills that will be practised.
07:20What do you need to do in civilian areas?
07:23Those are drills that will begin in India.
07:25Civilians will be trained.
07:26Students will be trained.
07:28Civil defence workers will train people on how best to protect themselves in the case of a hostile attack by Pakistan.
07:36Provisions of a crash blackout.
07:39Now, during the Kargil war, those who were there in 1999 would remember,
07:44or those who were there from 1971 war, they would remember a blackout at night.
07:49Immediately told to turn out all lights, no street lights, no lights anywhere.
07:53Because that's where you protect your cities or localities from a Pakistani air raid.
07:59Provisions for early camouflage of VA and VP, which is vital assets and vital points,
08:04all of that need to start happening.
08:07And civilians need to be geared up to contribute to protecting our nation from Pakistani terror and their military jihad complex.
08:16Then, various evacuation plans.
08:18People may have to be moved to civilian areas.
08:20This is what top government sources are telling India today,
08:22that the Ministry of Home Affairs has now directed various state governments to start preparing civilians,
08:28and especially in the initial phase, those in border areas, and then subsequently, even depth areas.
08:34Because Pakistan could try and target various cities in our capital,
08:39especially cities that are close to very prominent military installations.
08:43Prime Minister Narendra Modi today held a series of high-level meetings.
08:47And this gives you an idea about how things are gradually scaling up.
08:52Pieces of chessboard being put around for India's retribution strike.
08:57So, the Prime Minister, a series of government officials came and met the Prime Minister,
09:01from Defence Secretary Rajesh Singh to National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to Home Secretary Govind Mohan.
09:07There were a series of back-to-back meetings, both at Seven Lok Kalyan Mark and at Prime Minister's office in South Block.
09:15And these meetings were not just about the situation in Jammu and Kashmir,
09:18but also the next course of action.
09:21Diplomatic action, military action, internal security.
09:24How does India deal with this radical Islamist terror state, Pakistan?
09:31What and when will India's retribution strike be like?
09:35The pieces on the chessboard are being moved around, put in place,
09:39because once the things are in place, the attack will happen.
09:43And Defence Minister Rajesh Singh has given a very clear indication.
09:46What India wants will happen.
09:49And we'll also get you reports from across the border.
09:52Terror state is in panic.
09:55They're trying to second-guess what will India do.
09:57Will it be an uri?
09:58Will it be a balakot?
10:00Or, now, Navy's war.
10:02India making it clear, there will be definite punishment for Pakistan for killing innocents in Pahlgaam.
10:23After Prime Minister Modi's big assertion that India will pursue terrorists to the end of the earth,
10:30comes a big vow by Defence Minister Rajesh Singh,
10:34who said that the response India has been waiting for will definitely be delivered by Prime Minister Modi.
10:40Days ago, Home Minister Amit Shah had vowed
11:06that India will use all means to punish Pakistan terror audacity with a chilling chun-chun ke maarengge promise.
11:14India, which has ramped up its defence preparedness, is using all means at its disposal to make Pakistan pay.
11:39Finance Minister Nirmala Sita Raman approached the Asian Development Bank
11:45to choke Pakistan's financial funds, which could stall Islamabad's economy already in doldrums.
11:55India has also barred Pakistani ships from its ports and banned all imports, including direct trade via Atari border.
12:02Thank you very much.
12:32The Indus Waters Treaty is on hold, and India is also stopping water from key dams like Baglihar and Kishan Ganga.
12:44The YouTube handles of Pakistani politicians, including its Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif,
12:50and celebs have been banned under the digital strike.
12:54Will India's multi-pronged strikes bring Pakistan on its knees?
12:59And Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has just announced that the Defence Research and Development Organisation
13:15and the Indian Navy have successfully undertaken combat firing
13:19of the Indigenously Designed and Development Multi-Influenced Ground Mine, or MIGM.
13:28And watch those images.
13:29Those images have just been released by the Navy.
13:32Now, this is a very critical system.
13:35As far as protection of own seas or own territory is concerned, these are new-age mines.
13:43They also catch the acoustic signature, the electric signature, the magnetic signature of the adversary.
13:50And not just contact, but there are other ways that this mine could explode.
13:53And the enemy ships and enemy submarines have to be very, very careful.
13:59Once they know that these mines are there in certain waters, they prefer not to be anywhere close to this.
14:06So, this system would further enhance India's undersea warfare capabilities.
14:12It's a major shot in the arm for the Indian Navy.
14:15Remember, just yesterday, the Defence Research and Development Organisation had tested that helium-filled balloon
14:22which was sent up to Stratosphere at 17 kilometres or 55,000 feet altitude.
14:28That's where it can keep a hawk eye on all movements of the adversary.
14:33Nothing can jam those radars and signatures and sensors.
14:37And this is testing undersea of the new-age mines with their acoustic and magnetic signatures and electric signatures.
14:47So, that's where the adversary is very scared.
14:50Would be very scared from what we could do in the skies and what we could do undersea.
14:55Let me now get you details of India's actions and a series of actions that India has taken since the Pehelgaam terror strike
15:03by radical Islamist terrorists from Pakistan.
15:06Because remember what those terrorists did?
15:08They singled out Hindus and they shot them in cold blood.
15:13The Narendra Modi government is giving every indication enough is enough.
15:18Nothing will justify this act of Pakistan and action will be taken.
15:23So, the first step that was taken and I want to begin by talking about the Indus Waters Treaty.
15:28That was held in abeyance.
15:29Now, it's very crucial because that's a water strike on Pakistan, a water-starved and parched country.
15:36It's very bad for Pakistan's Punjab province and Sindh province.
15:39So, Pakistan will have to choose.
15:41Do they want good relations with India and uninterrupted supply of water and a generosity?
15:46Or they want to continue with that radical Islamist terror and cry to the world bodies where they will not be heard because terror is unacceptable globally.
15:55That was step one.
15:56Atari border was closed.
15:58So, people-to-people contact.
16:00Those who say that, you know, that spirit of India, Pakistan, Bhai Chara and we are the same people.
16:06Well, Asim Munir says we are not the same people and his terrorists are showing that if Pakistanis also think we are the same people, then they need to mount pressure on Asim Munir.
16:14You stop terror in India.
16:16But if they suck up to Asim Munir and they, you know, accept every word that he says, then I'm not sure how many Indians would want to have contact with such elements in Pakistan.
16:26Not just that.
16:27So, the number of diplomats in each other's high commissions, it was 110 at one point of time.
16:33After Pulwamite came down to 55, now it's come down to 30.
16:37The posts of the defense attache, air attache, naval attache and the support staff, they've been annulled.
16:41We don't want any more Pakistani spies in our country, ISI officers masquerading as defense attaches.
16:4725th of April, homes of Pakistan-backed terrorists destroyed.
16:51No safe havens for terror in Indian territory anymore.
16:5430th of April, India closes airspace to Pakistan international airlines.
17:0016 YouTube channels blocked.
17:02A small but a significant step.
17:04This needs to be taken altogether at a different level.
17:07On the 2nd of May, India asks IMF to review loans to Pakistan because the money that world gives to Pakistan for development is only going for development of Pakistan's military jihad complex.
17:18So, Asim Munir is becoming richer.
17:20Hafiz Saeed is becoming richer.
17:22People of Pakistan are still begging for their next meal.
17:27Shabash Sharif's official YouTube channel, Pakistan's Prime Minister.
17:30Of course, he's powerless anyways in Pakistan.
17:33In Pakistan, he's known as boot polish because he lives to serve the army chief.
17:40So, his YouTube channel has been blocked.
17:423rd of May, complete ban on all imports from Pakistan.
17:45Postal service from Pakistan suspended.
17:48Pakistan ships barred from entering Indian ports then on the 4th of May.
17:52And again, this is a significant step.
17:54Chinab water flow through the Baglehar Dam.
17:57That's been cut.
17:58Chinab, anyway.
17:59Satluj, Ravi, Bias.
18:00These are eastern rivers for India.
18:03Water meant 100% for India.
18:05Chinab, Jhelam and Indus, western rivers.
18:0880% water meant for Pakistan.
18:0920% for India.
18:11India does not even use that 20%.
18:12The effort is to ensure that India utilizes that 20%.
18:15Short-term, symbolic, medium-term, it will hurt Pakistan.
18:20And I want to explain India's actions when it comes to Pakistan, especially the Indus Waters Treaty.
18:28Remember, analysts in Pakistan and across the world say the treaty that took nine years to come.
18:34Negotiations were hectic.
18:35The World Bank was the arbiter.
18:37This treaty wasn't either stalled or abrogated or suspended or held in abeyance even after the 1965 war, 71 war,
18:47Kargil war of 1999, Operation Begdut, Siachin operations in 1984.
18:52And subsequently, you've had multiple terror attacks.
18:56But this time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi says, enough is enough.
19:01Water and blood cannot flow together.
19:04You want water?
19:05Then stop shedding Indian blood.
19:07Of course, this isn't a knee-jerk reaction.
19:11Letters were sent to Pakistan in 2023 itself.
19:14And not one, but multiple letters.
19:16That circumstances have changed.
19:18We need to renegotiate Indus Waters Treaty.
19:21Pakistan did not respond.
19:22If it hasn't responded, then India is well within our rights to hold the treaty in abeyance.
19:27So, this is a move to squeeze Pakistan dry.
19:30India today was the first to bring you exclusive details of what Narendra Modi government intends to do on ground
19:37to, once a decision has been taken, to hold this treaty in abeyance.
19:42It was on India first.
19:44We detailed India's plans to flush the dams, to de-silt operations on Chinab and Shalem.
19:52Today, India today gets you more details.
19:54How this plan is now being actioned, reducing downstream river flow to Pakistan.
20:00And to send across a message.
20:01If you want water, stop spilling our blood.
20:14After the recent attack on tourists in Pehelgaam by Pakistan state-sponsored radical Islamist terror,
20:21India is striking back.
20:24After putting the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance,
20:27the Narendra Modi government is taking more concrete steps to block water flowing into Pakistan.
20:33India has closed the gates at two major dams on the Chinab River,
20:40Bagleyar and Salal, massively reducing the flow of water into Pakistan.
20:45This has put Islamabad in a state of panic.
20:50And India's actions don't just stop here.
20:54The Narendra Modi government is also planning to shut down water flow from the Kishan Ganga Dam on Jhelam River.
21:01With the water levels dropping and pressure mounting, Pakistan is crying foul.
21:09We are our sand and we will remain our sand.
21:16Either we will be our water from this tree or our blood from this tree.
21:23From a diplomatic offensive to exploring military options,
21:31India is making it clear that Pakistan state-sponsored radical Islamist terror
21:36will no longer be tolerated.
21:38This time, it's not just retribution,
22:01it's calibrated retribution.
22:05So this is a very stern message to Pakistan
22:08that we are not going to tolerate terrorism
22:11that is being sponsored by Pakistan against India.
22:15And we can give befitting reply to Pakistan.
22:17We can stop water to Pakistan
22:20and we can deprive Pakistan of every drop of water
22:23of all three western rivers.
22:26With video journalist Neeraj Kumar, this is Sunil Bhatt
22:28reporting from Akhnoor in Jama and Kashmir for India Today.
22:38So what does holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance
22:41translate into action on ground
22:45and how does it translate into action on ground?
22:47Let's talk about the Chinab River, for example.
22:50India, for decades, has been wanting
22:52to desilt the Bagleyar Dam.
22:56Pakistan wouldn't let that happen.
22:57Pakistan would go crying to the International Code of Arbitration,
23:01to the Permanent Code of Arbitration
23:03and say, no, no, you cannot do this
23:05and then India wouldn't be able to do this.
23:07Now, with the treaty in abeyance,
23:09we don't have to give Pakistan any information.
23:11We don't have to tell them about anything.
23:13India wants to desilt.
23:14India's desilting and the desilting process has now started.
23:17But downstream flow has reduced by 90%.
23:21Let me now tell you about the Salal Dam.
23:23Now, Salal Dam, again, is very important.
23:26Flushing operations, they started on the 1st of May
23:29and India Today was the first channel right here on India First.
23:32I told you, Salal Dam and Bagleyar Dam,
23:34this is where the action will begin.
23:36What's happening on the Jhelam River,
23:38the Kishan Ganga Dam?
23:40Maintenance work has started.
23:41Some bits have started.
23:42It will be more intense.
23:44And the moment that maintenance work happens,
23:47imagine Pakistan wasn't even letting us carry out regular maintenance work,
23:51regular desilting work.
23:52Now that is happening and water downstream will be stopped.
23:56These are just some of the measures that are being taken.
23:59And there is a lot more that is to be done and will be done in a calibrated manner.
24:05In each instance, India is waiting for Pakistan to send out a signal.
24:12Either they take action against terror,
24:14they stop terror or it will.
24:17You know, it's basically Pakistan is on slow burn.
24:21It's like putting a toad in water and then slowly increasing the heat.
24:26The toad, otherwise if you put him in hot water, he'll jump out.
24:28When you do it gradually, the toad will only realise much later how bad it is hurting.
24:34Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh's cryptic message,
24:43what the country wants will happen,
24:46is being analysed very extensively on either side of the border.
24:51India has unleashed a slew of measures from holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance
24:57to seeking a check on funds for Pakistan to blocking cross-border trade
25:01and of course even contact.
25:03But will there be a kinetic strike,
25:07kinetic action to send across a clear message to Pakistan's military jihad complex?
25:12Is that the only language Pakistan understands?
25:15Joining me on India first is Ambassador Ajay Bisaria,
25:19former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan,
25:21Ambassador Bisaria has a distinguished career of over 35 years
25:25and as a diplomat was India's envoy to Pakistan
25:29at the time of the Pulwama and Balakot airstrikes.
25:33Ambassador, welcome on India Today.
25:36Thank you, Gaurav. Good to be here.
25:39Ambassador, from seeking to starve Pakistan of funds
25:43to holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance,
25:45India has taken a series of non-kinetic measures.
25:49You understand Pakistan.
25:50You understand the Pakistani military mindset much better than most.
25:56Do non-kinetic actions matter to the Pakistani military jihad complex
26:01or kinetic action must follow?
26:04You know, I would make the argument that kinetic operations
26:11or kinetic measures are essential.
26:14They are a necessary, perhaps not sufficient condition.
26:20The non-kinetic measures that India has taken so far
26:24are perhaps the most serious non-kinetic measures India has taken against terrorism
26:30compared to any other terrorism episode in the past.
26:35And particularly the Indus Waters Treaty is a huge, huge step that India has taken.
26:41It's already affecting Pakistan.
26:43Pakistan has called it an act of war.
26:46But in my view, if the objective is to set up deterrence for the next Pahal Gaam not to happen,
26:54it is important to have a kinetic action in the mix to make sure that that deterrence is credible,
27:04that deterrence is lasting, and that deterrence specifically targets the Pakistan army.
27:10The last time that kinetic action was taken, you were India's High Commissioner to Pakistan.
27:17Now, beyond public posturing, what was the impact of Balakot on the Pakistani military mindset?
27:25In your book, Anger Management, you've mentioned that nine missiles were aimed at Pakistan
27:31had Wing Commander Abhinandan not been returned immediately.
27:35Did coercion work effectively that time?
27:39Is that the only language Pakistan understands?
27:43And now, five years after Balakot, will that coercion have to be scaled up to send across that message?
27:51Yes, Gaurav, so a couple of questions here.
27:54One, in Balakot, India was dominating that escalation ladder.
28:01After the first escalation by Pakistan in Pulwama, India's response got Pakistan by surprise.
28:13The Balakot action was like nothing that has been done before.
28:18Since 1971, there had been no Indian fighter aircraft that had crossed the international border,
28:26and they did this time.
28:27So it was a significant step.
28:30Pakistan took countersteps the next day.
28:34An Indian pilot was down.
28:36And then India said that we will escalate unless the pilot is returned.
28:42At that point, Pakistan decided that they wanted to de-escalate,
28:49and they wanted to get out of that situation.
28:52The threat of force, the threat of escalatory steps from India was credible.
28:58And the situation completely de-escalated at that point.
29:03So I think Pakistan, it entered Pakistan's calculus that India would take very firm and very resolute measures
29:13in case of any terrorism.
29:16And that is why, in my view, this deterrence is held for six years.
29:22That is why you haven't had a major attack of terrorism for all these years.
29:27But suddenly, the internal dynamic in Pakistan changed.
29:30And despite this high cost that the Pakistan army would have to pay, its army chief decided that he needed to do this,
29:41perhaps because a skirmish with India suited him,
29:45and to bolster his own position within the army and within Pakistan,
29:51which he thought deeply threatened by the deep unpopularity that he has and the army has.
30:00So I think there was a different dynamic at play there.
30:03But the short point is that Balakot did establish a strong deterrence against terrorism.
30:11And it's time to reimpose that.
30:13Now, whether that comes with kinetic action or non-kinetic measures or a blend of both,
30:21the government of India at this point would be deliberating and would know best.
30:26Okay.
30:27You read the Pakistani mind quite well.
30:31You were there at the time of Pulwama and Balakot.
30:34How do you see the reactions that are coming from Pakistan?
30:37For example, the information minister goes live at 2 in the morning,
30:41and he fears that the next attack could take place in 24 to 36 hours.
30:45That hasn't happened.
30:46Pakistan is reaching out to global capitals, many say seeking intervention.
30:51But at the same time, while it wants to de-escalate, or that's the buzz that we hear,
30:57it's also testing missiles.
30:59POJK residents are being told to stock up on food.
31:02A special session of Pakistan's National Assembly is being called.
31:06What does this indicate?
31:07Does this indicate panic in Pakistan, or are they also planning for resolute action or response
31:14when that resolute action is taken, sir?
31:16I think it reflects certainly a high degree of panic.
31:21It also reflects a certain conscious attempt at messaging through saber-rattling
31:29and trying to, you know, demonstrate to its own internal audiences that Pakistan is prepared
31:39or Pakistan is prepared to take that action.
31:41But I think it also reflects at another level the position of the civilians compared to the army.
31:50Because typically in Pakistan, all through its history, the army takes a bunch of measures
31:57keeping the civilians in the dark, even if there's a hybrid regime with the civilians in the mix.
32:05And the civilians are then left to defend it and to come up with the best defense possible.
32:12They come up with implausible deniability.
32:15They come up with some ridiculous theories like saying it's all a false flag operation.
32:21So I think the civilians tend to be, you know, floundering in this kind of situation.
32:29The messaging is not very clear.
32:32And also they are frequently losing their nerve because this constant threat of action that they feel
32:43is also something that, you know, kind of gets a country on edge.
32:49The current Pakistan army chief, Asim Munir, he was DGISI at the time of Pulwama.
32:55Given his mindset and many think or say he's a radical Islamist, in your appreciation,
33:03is he more willing to go up that escalation ladder, you know, that so-called Ghazi mindset
33:09or the Ghazwai Hind mindset that we hear of?
33:13And in your appreciation, are we on top of that escalation ladder,
33:18even if it means climbing several notches in the whole of Government of India approach, sir?
33:25Absolutely. So, you know, he is, I would say, Asim Munir is an opportunistic radical.
33:34You know, he wasn't quite a radical when he was DGISI.
33:38He was serving under Bajwa. Bajwa was not a radical person.
33:43And Bajwa, in fact, was looking at a Bajwa doctrine, which was about, you know,
33:51a pivot to geoeconomics away from geopolitics, which was somewhat progressive and pragmatic approach.
34:01Now, here, Asim Munir, and if you call this the Munir doctrine, the Munir doctrine is a mix of the Zia doctrine and the Jinnah doctrine.
34:13He's trying to regress into Pakistan's past with a complete lack of imagination and trying to define a new sort of defending,
34:24the army as defending the ideological frontiers of Pakistan because he's beleaguered.
34:31And he feels this positioning as a sort of general, which who's flirting with the right wing
34:39and is taking on ideological postures will strengthen his position.
34:44But more than that, he probably calculated that a little skirmish with India is what will help him retrieve his reputation,
34:54which is mud within the army and which is also very, very poor within the general populace,
35:02because the general populace felt that they wanted Imran Khan, they elected Imran Khan.
35:08But the army under Asim Munir changed that result and got in the Sharif brothers.
35:15And he is probably trying to deal with this situation by doing all that he's doing.
35:22I don't think he's, you know, he's an ideological convert from the beginning, but it's a convenient posture to have.
35:32But, you know, what you say is very significant.
35:35It's also very dangerous. You know, if he's a very dangerous cocktail of a Zia doctrine and a Jinnah doctrine,
35:45and if he mixed the two, which means he would end up being some kind of a radical Islamist talking about that Islamic bomb.
35:54And he's already talked about this two nation theory, Hindus being different, Muslims being different.
36:00Are we now to see more terrorism in our country?
36:03Will he want to scale up that, you know, he probably thought there'll be a quick response from India and he was prepared for it.
36:09There hasn't been a quick response from India.
36:11Is he bleeding because the response hasn't been swift?
36:15Is he sweating it out?
36:17And does that tire him out in your appreciation?
36:19So another terror attack forcing India's hand, sir?
36:22Well, you know, it's it's we can speculate on this and there are multiple scenarios possible.
36:29But I think if if we look at it as analysts, I would say that this is an army chief with a higher appetite for risk for having even attempted.
36:40But he heads an institution which does not have such a high appetite for risk because the institution understands that they are no match in the conventional realm for India's army,
36:57which is 10x more superior for India's national will, India's comprehensive national power, which is 10x more than Pakistan.
37:06So they they recognize that that itself acted in the past as a deterrent.
37:12But the personal risk appetite has possibly gone up because he feels that this move could help him personally.
37:20But I would say that, you know, it is an escalated and tense situation.
37:28And perhaps the absence of any immediate move from India keeps the Pakistan army as well as the civilians in a higher state of panic because, you know, they are unable to read exactly what India is going to do and when.
37:47Very interesting, because you also understand the state of affairs in Pakistan better than many.
37:54Their financial situation, the state of their armed forces, a statement or a conversation between two Pakistani journalists had gone viral some years ago where they had a meeting.
38:04I mean, this group of journalists had a meeting with General Kamar Javed Bajwa and General Bajwa, then army chief, had indicated that Pakistan's armor, their military might was in a very poor shape.
38:15They didn't even have enough diesel for movement or words to that effect.
38:19A recent intelligence assessment has also indicated that Pakistan has ammunition for less than four days of a full fledged conflict.
38:26Before I come to you for your appreciation of the state of Pakistan armed forces, I want our viewers to quickly listen in to this brief, a brief clip of that conversation.
38:37Listen in.
38:37Thank you very much.
39:01Thank you very much.
39:31Thank you very much.
40:01Ambassador Vasariya, your appreciation, you heard that conversation, then you know the Pakistan army's situation much better than most, your assessment, sir.
40:11Yes, and I know both these journalists, Naseem Zahra and Hamid Meir, and they were part of that larger group.
40:18And it's fascinating.
40:20You know, as people who watch Pakistan, who study Pakistan, this was a very revealing conversation.
40:29And Bajwa, after he retired, General Bajwa was particularly voluble and particularly sharing a large number of things which were clear.
40:42But, you know, this comes as no great revelation of a secret for the Indian army, for instance, because what it is essentially underlining is that there is the conventional war fighting capacity of Pakistan's forces is limited.
41:05And there is a great deal of asymmetry in that realm with India.
41:13And, you know, any military expert you talk to, a lot of them will tell you that.
41:18And that the Pakistan army beyond a point doesn't have the stomach, nor the capacity to have a war with India, which is in the conventional realm.
41:29And I underline that because, you know, right after 1971, you know, Pakistan seemed to come to the conclusion that it is in the non-conventional asymmetric means that it ought to develop the capacities.
41:44So it went on to acquire, you know, it became important to acquire nuclear weapons to get parity in the nuclear realm and to develop proxy warfare as a legitimate strategy to be able to contest with India in the subconventional realm.
42:05So I think what this really is underlining is that the Pakistan army is well aware of its limitations in dealing with a much more powerful Indian army.
42:22And yet, and yet, and yet, General Asim Munir did what he did.
42:27And now he's brought in another general as his national security advisor, General Asim Malik, DGI, ISI has been brought in as NSA.
42:37Is the civilian leadership anyways, which was powerless, have they been completely sidelined?
42:42What's the message here?
42:44Does he want somebody who's his person to be able to deal with other NSAs across the world?
42:50How would you see this?
42:52So I would see this as at two levels.
42:56One, certainly, even the illusion of an NSA who is reporting to the civilian leadership is gone,
43:08because this is clearly somebody trusted by the Pakistan army chief who has been made the NSA.
43:17And in a sense, it's not a bad thing, because what it means is that if this NSA becomes a channel of communication with other NSAs, he will have the year of Asim Munir.
43:32Because, you know, in the past, there have been NSAs who developed into a power center of their own, and one was not very sure how much they were reporting or getting instructions for or delivering the messages of the current army chief or, you know, playing games of their own.
43:51So I think what it means is that he is removing all pretenses of any civilian facade here, saying the India relationship and, in fact, all foreign and security policy is with the Pakistan army.
44:10He is in charge of it, and he has his man who becomes a global interlocutor, possibly even with India in a later, you know, crisis management or crisis communication situation.
44:24And, you know, he is basically not trusting the civilians to have any of their people doing any of the talk.
44:35So, but there will be a kinetic response.
44:38I mean, if their NSA reaches out to ours, to our NSA, and they have a meeting, you know, elsewhere, either in Asia or elsewhere, is that a likelihood?
44:47Or again, we are speculating, because many in India are saying, yes, we've taken a lot of non-kinetic measures, and I want to specifically come to Indus Waters Treaty in just a moment.
44:57But I want to understand, a kinetic response will and must follow for that credible deterrence.
45:04But if Pakistan responds to that, will we be happy with that situation?
45:09Fine, we sent across a message, they will be happy, they were able to do a swift retort of sorts, or will we then escalate it further this time, sir?
45:17Gaurav, if you see the, you know, sequence of events that took place, and the pattern of Indian responses, India's response has been different every time.
45:30And right from 2000, you recall, 2001, after the parliament attack, we had Operation Parakram.
45:37After 2008, we had more diplomacy, arguably not effective enough.
45:42And 2016 and 19, we had kinetic action, which set up a paradigm of hot pursuit and set up a paradigm of setting up deterrence through kinetic action.
45:58Now, what happens this time?
46:00Let's not speculate.
46:02Our forces know best what to do.
46:05But whether we have kinetic action in the mix, or the very powerful move of the Indus Waters Treaty becomes the deterrence, all that will play out over the next few months.
46:20And this kinetic action can happen at a place and manner of our choosing, but also a time of our choosing.
46:28Which means it could happen in the Maniksha model, nine months after Mrs. Gandhi said, can we do something in 1971?
46:37It took nine months to do it.
46:40Or it could take, you know, it could happen today before dinner.
46:45It could happen a week from now.
46:47Or it could happen in a few months.
46:49But there is a certain value in keeping your adversary guessing of when, where and how your action will come.
47:01Oh, absolutely, sir.
47:02And the action that follows in terms of the Indus Waters Treaty.
47:07We've been hearing a series of statements from Khwaja Asif, the defense minister, for example.
47:12If he says, you know, he says that if a structure is built, it will be destroyed, and holding the water is an act of war.
47:20Are Pakistanis flapping already?
47:24You know, I would say it is a measure of panic.
47:27It's a lot of bluster.
47:29And again, this is part of a classic Pakistan response of a lot of saber-rattling,
47:37very early in a conflict situation, because this is something that they feel gets global attention.
47:46So I think this is, you know, the measures taken so far are very minor.
47:54There is what India can do at this point is control the flows, is what India can do is withhold the data.
48:03But what is very serious from Pakistan's point of view is what India can do in the medium term.
48:11And there, India now has a strong lever to put pressure on Pakistan to change its behavior,
48:20because this move itself sets up a certain deterrence.
48:26Because what it also says right now is that India has said that we've kept the treaty in abeyance,
48:33but they could, if Pakistan changes its behavior theoretically, there could be a conversation,
48:39and there could be a collaboration of how much that treaty is used for controlling the flow of water.
48:47Okay. And, you know, how do we want Pakistan to change, and can a leopard change its spots?
48:53But, you know, the point that many in India have argued that we must strengthen democratic parties and forces in Pakistan.
49:00But when leaders like former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari speak the language of Hafiz Mohammed Saeed,
49:06a UN-designated global terrorist, that if water doesn't flow in the indus, blood will.
49:11Or what's that effect? I want you to respond to that.
49:14But first, listen in, both to Hafiz Saeed and to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
50:17sir his grandfather followed the pakistan army agenda he was hanged his mother followed the
50:40pakistan army agenda she was shot dead by pakistan back terror his two mamoo's died under
50:46very mysterious circumstances and yet is he now going down the same path of hafiz muhammad saeed
50:53and the pakistan army well i would read this as bilawal bhutto saying to the army chief sir please
51:01remember i'm still around i'm still relevant and there was a theory um you know when this new
51:08government was formed that the deal was that uh they would have uh the sharif brothers for two and
51:15a half years and the rest of the period uh they would give to uh to to the bhutto's or the bhutto's
51:22or daris so um perhaps he's uh trying to reestablish his relevance uh by uh giving statements which he
51:31thinks the army would like to hear and uh trying to be uh you know uh holier than the pope in uh in
51:40trying to uh uh ingratiate himself uh to uh to to the army so i think this is really an internal play
51:50an internal positioning uh by bilawal bhutto in uh trying to say that uh he still matters
51:57okay sir india's trying to rally global opinion uh against uh pakistani military jihad complex uh
52:06you heard uh the russian president uh he uh made a statement today you've heard what global reaction
52:13has been india is also trying to reach out to adb and imf is all of that working or these are efforts
52:20from our side some working some may take more time to work you know um i i can tell you from my
52:28experience uh at of global diplomacy during the time of pulwama it made a lot of difference a lot of it
52:35you won't hear of because diplomacy like an iceberg uh is conducted behind closed uh doors so you see
52:44only the tip of the iceberg which is the public diplomacy but a lot of conversations do take place
52:50and there is very little traction for the internal and absurd narrative that pakistan tries to uh
53:00pedal in its echo chambers globally there are no takers for that narrative you know you heard how
53:07uh shocked and surprised and scoffing the global media was of uh the uh pakistan ministers when they
53:14go and talk about false flag operations so the global community uh understands that there is uh there is
53:24pakistan uh is a source an epicenter of uh terrorism uh and uh there will be serious moves and serious
53:33conversations by indian diplomats and multiple others particularly along with the americans on uh on
53:41sanctioning some of these uh military officials on uh on the imf loan on having fatf financial action
53:51task force like conditions inserted into the imf program because at the end of the day uh if uh when
53:59pakistan is involved in this kind of terrorism it is diverting funds that the global community is good
54:05giving in good faith uh for the pakistan people the army is diverting these funds for acts of terrorism
54:13and that should shock and surprise uh the global community and certainly these are the conversations
54:20our diplomats i'm sure are having as we speak so is the best way to teach pakistani military jihad
54:28complex a lesson sanctions against pakistani generals beat asem munir or or the that entire
54:34military jihad network and perhaps their families uh is that the only way pakistan there'll be costs
54:40imposed on pakistan or kinetic action also essential simultaneously i would say there is a whole
54:46menu of options and uh it includes sanctions it includes economic sanctions against terrorists and their
54:54backers which include uh the army it includes uh you know the economic coercion methods it includes
55:03diplomatic measures all of this uh is and should be on the table along with uh possible kinetic
55:11responses directed at uh at the terrorists uh you know you would recall in the past uh pakistan used
55:18to have a narrative of non-state actors it would say yes they've come from our land but these are
55:23non-state actors now they've changed that narrative to false flag operations so you know all all those
55:30narratives um are unconvincing uh have uh have very little traction globally and these other measures
55:39therefore become uh more important they it is it does become important to have these conversations
55:46and uh with uh india needs to have them with global partners and uh some of them uh as in when there is
55:56uh you know very clear evidence of uh what these individuals are up to uh they will start sticking
56:03there are many many more questions and i hope i can get you back uh on the show very soon uh as the as
56:10this campaign against pakistan state-sponsored radical islamist terror continues ambassador ajay
56:17brisaria for joining me here on india today many thanks
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