India has vowed major retaliation against the perpetrators and the masterminds of the Pahalgam terrorist attack that left 26 people dead last week.
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00:00hello and welcome to the special edition of world today we are here with a panel of experts in-house
00:20experts to discuss one thing and one thing alone how is India going to take on Pakistan there are
00:28various scenarios that we are looking at from taking out particular terrorists to taking out
00:35or degrading the Pakistani army the diplomatic solutions military solutions what is India going
00:42to do and what could that mean in terms of ladder of escalation I'm being joined to discuss that and
00:48more by Ankit Kumar he is the editor or sent which is open source intelligence here at the India today
00:55group I'm also being joined by a group editorial director publishing Raj Chhengappa of the India
01:02today magazine and Gaurav Savant managing editor in the today TV we will be discussing various scenarios
01:09beginning with what if what if India takes out the man responsible for Pahalgam terror attacks that's
01:18Hafiz Saeed Lashkar-e-Taiba Ankit Kumar will explain what that could mean for India and what could the
01:25response be by Pakistan so Ankit tell us what the scenario is going to look like if India takes out
01:32the man responsible that is Hafiz Saeed well well Gita before we talk about what future scenarios could
01:38hold let's go back to the past right there has been a past assassination attempt on Saeed also on Masood Azhar
01:45both of them actually managed to survive so whoever did this the next person taking the calls making
01:52the pushing that button will have to keep certain things in mind right so the traditional routes we
01:59know will not work because it failed in June 2021 against Saeed there was an explosion at Johar town Hafiz
02:06Saeed's residence he survived remember in 2019 April in Peshawar there was a blast Masood Azhar managed to survive so
02:14those traditional routes will not work technology will have to be used extensively UAVs satellite
02:21linkages all these things you know the era of physically identifying your target that is gone
02:27we are in May 2025 this is not May 2011 what happened in 2011 Osama bin Laden was targeted by the US Navy Seals but
02:39that was a physical contact based operation the new pattern will have to follow the Israeli template
02:45remember what happened in Iran right so a lot of use of technology maybe UAV satellite communications the
02:52identification in this day and age of AI AI we know is being used for identification of targets the those
03:00days of identifying your targets physically that is gone very interesting America could do it in 2011 with
03:10Osama bin Laden Raj Chingapa but we are looking at a time where Ankit says you need technology is it is it in
03:18the realm of possibility can this really be done or are we looking at a ladder of escalation that will be
03:24unimaginable for India depends where Hafiz Saeed is going to be if that's the target and sure you can do
03:33and that's probably the best option because the escalation ladder will not be that much if you've got
03:38a clean strike he's staying in a civilian place and you are able to identify and do it but from what we can
03:44see they already know that this is going to be they've already guessed that we are going to hit one of
03:49these guys right that would be the easiest way for India to give a fitting riposter but here I think
03:55you have to watch out for one thing if you see what happened in 2016 and Uri as well as 2019 we only hit
04:03camps we did not hit Pakistani establishment institutions of any kind the moment you hit any of
04:12them and supposing Hafiz Saeed happens to be in one of the units or whatever it is that is an act of war in
04:17Pakistan's mind so your escalation ladder goes very rapidly up so if you've got the kind of intelligence
04:23we don't know whether we have it wish we do like the way Israel does are you getting the support of America
04:30are you getting the support of Israel if you are then your tech int is going to be great technical intelligence
04:37and then you can identify the next thing is what will you use to strike it do you have the kind of precision missiles
04:43do you have you know the ones that really pinpoint if you have that that's great so I think it's it's
04:51it's the best option because it's a covert option I don't think you can attempt what they were trying
04:56to do with Osama bin Laden which is you're going to overfly and which is what Ankit was also saying
05:01then what happens is that's a declaration of war right even the moment you strike as I said any of the Pakistan
05:09establishment buildings or facilities you are you are going up the escalation ladder which will not be very easy to control
05:17we will consider and look at the other option that Raj has been talking about which is hitting a military
05:23establishment or a military official but Gaurav before I come to that how important is half a side is the ladder of escalation
05:31going to be that much more if India takes out half a side is he that important or has he become a liability
05:38well he's very important for us he's a liability perhaps for some in Pakistan but when I interviewed Manohar Parikar
05:45late Manohar Parikar Raksha Mantri of India then he said you don't have to send in your troops you don't have to send in your missiles
05:51you can use their own terrorists to kill their own terrorists and namalu mafrad in Pakistan can do what they want
05:59and there's deniability you've achieved your aim and you haven't committed any of your men Pakistan will have to
06:05you know just keep wondering whether who's done it Hafiz Saeed has many enemies and not just in India
06:10Afghanistan is one area that you can harness and why is this Hafiz Saeed Masood Azhar Daoud Ibrahim Kaskar
06:17you everyone knows where he stays in Karachi there are many targets to take out you need to have that willpower and you need to have that intelligence and you need to have the money
06:25we have it all we don't have to come at our men and material but do we have the penetration do we have people on the ground Ankit
06:33it's not about sending people in it's not about sending your forces in like you'd like America did
06:39but do we have penetration this is where I disagree with Gaurav you see we have seen we have seen so many incidents the success rate which targeting tier 2 tier 3 kind of terrorists has been absolute 100% but every time an attempt has been made on likes of Saeed or Azhar the success rate is zero we have not been able to take down Daoud Saeed or Azhar for because their level of security
07:07level of security the the locations they live in the kind of parameter they set in it becomes difficult for an untrained locally hired goon to shoot down a terror mastermind for that you need to have elaborate planning technology is going to play a key role and timing as Raj said you cannot you cannot conduct these kind of operations when everybody is expecting a bullet right so timing is very important remember again what Israel did
07:33they have placed the bombs months in advance that that came from human intelligence right and you can't use missiles in this let's be very clear the moment you use a missile to get them supposing like what Israel did you had a bomb and you were able to trigger it remotely and have a deniability quotient as you were talking about the moment you get into a missile business a precision missile to go and whack whoever you want to you will then escalate
08:00and let's not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear power and it does have unlike us which is not a disadvantage for us it does have tactical nuclear missiles so when Pakistan sends a missile our concern is always going to be is it conventional is it tactical and of course let's be very clear if they put even one tactical nuclear missile on us it will be an all out nuclear war and we will not wait for the next one there will be complete destruction of Pakistan so but we don't want to
08:30we don't want to go down that line be very clear no one wants that this is I mean it would be crazy to get to a nuclear level at any point but I'm just telling you the risks when you have to deal with such a let's say let's put it opponent adversary enemy this is just a conversation on terrorists taking out assets within Pakistan such as half a saeed or Masood Azhar and Raj
08:55has already said that Pakistan could go nuclear let's just take things a notch higher let's just take things a notch higher let's talk about the real man behind the
09:03Pahilgam terror attack and that's not Lashkar a Taiba or half a saeed that's Pakistan army chief Asim Muneer Raj let's talk about the scenario let's let's play it out over here what happens if India really goes after Asim Muneer you know it's not a question of going after him he is very well protected it's not going to be easy to know
09:25lock him down as you would want to do it I think let's be very clear you should not underestimate Asim Muneer
09:32just take a look at his track record this is a man that was sacked by Imran Khan in 2018 he was the eyesight chief and let's not forget in 2019 when he gets sacked just before that
09:43he does have a hand in the Pulwama terror attack right and then he shunted off to a court which is actually not too bad because that gives him the chance to get into being a chief and despite the huge resistance that is there when Imran Khan is deposed and doesn't want Asim Muneer to succeed as army chief he's about to retire he becomes army chief and then if you see the progression of this there is a lot of protest that is happening his core there's a revolt
09:50within the army his core there's a revolt within the army he quells the core dissent that is there in fact sacks and purges all those guys put his armen since John
10:11His core, there's a revolt within the army. He quells the core descent that is there.
10:17In fact, sacks and purges all those guys, puts his loyalism, goes after Imran Khan.
10:22He was sacked because he, you know, possibly that's what they say is that he was bold enough to tell Imran Khan that his wife was involved in some alleged corruption.
10:32And that's what really missed Imran Khan and had him sacked.
10:36So he comes back, gets Imran Khan arrested, puts him in jail, and of course now he's got 14 years of imprisonment.
10:43And then if you look at the way he's manipulated the levers of power, he takes the coalition government that comes in is under his control.
10:50He gets into the economic aspects, he gets the army into it, and he is now the supremo without toppling the civilian establishment.
10:58This man is very clever. And if you take a look at how he's established, he's purged the Supreme Court by having a special amendment.
11:05So all the judges that were favorable towards Imran cannot succeed as the Supreme Court Chief Justice.
11:11Then he gets himself an extension. Normally army chiefs wait till they about the final year.
11:16Right.
11:17He gets it the previous year and gets a five-year extension and also no age limit, which means he can rule up to 2032 if he wants to.
11:25Right now he retires in 2027. So, and then let's look at what he did in the last couple of years.
11:31One, he takes on Afghanistan. Afghanistan was their ally. Taliban was their ally.
11:37But the moment he finds the TTP, Tariki Taliban Pakistan, is doing nonsense with him, he goes after the Afghans themselves.
11:46He did. Yeah.
11:47Which is, he says, I'm going to deport Afghanis there. A lakh and 50,000 Afghanis are deported.
11:53When he's supposed to have great relations with Taliban, he's willing to take them on.
11:56Iran does a drone strike to get one of its rebels. He sends a missile across to Iran.
12:01Iran. This man will retaliate. Let's be very clear. And then let's look at what he did in Jammu and Kashmir.
12:07There, if you see, look at the strategy he's, he's sort of unfurled in this one.
12:13Is that he sends in top class terrorists. These are better trained.
12:18They are, because they've not been caught.
12:21Great communication. We, I mean, possibly Chinese is helping them. Their decryption is something that we have not been able to crack.
12:28So, he hits Jammu during the election, surprises everybody, because you don't expect it in places like Riyasi and Doda and other places.
12:35And then comes to the valley. And again, take the targets. Right? He does Pulwama, which is, you know, armed forces or police personnel that is there happening.
12:45Sorry, in Pulwama it is police personnel. CRPF, that's there. And here hits tourists. Right? And look at the audacity of that hit.
12:53It's definitely planned. It is definitely wanting to build a communal divide that is there where you see these people asking, which is your religion?
12:59And then hurts the valley to the point of it. Then you take a look at what he does after that. The moment India says Indus Water Treaty.
13:08Right? We're going to suspend it. He says, Shimla agreement is off. We're going to suspend.
13:14So, the man is calculating at every step what you're doing. And why does he do that? Because he's got ISI background.
13:21Let's not also forget he's one of the rare chiefs who was also Director General of Military Intelligence. Right.
13:26So, this man, if you study his psychology is one and the other fact that we have to look at is that he sees himself as an Islamist general. Right?
13:36I mean, the last time anybody did that, any army chief did that was Zia al-Haq. That was in the 80s. Right? 70s to 80s.
13:43Yes.
13:44He sees this as a holy fight. He's a… I would call him a jihadi general. He… and jihad not in the word…
13:49We can see that. Not in the way that we look at jihad. He thinks that the war that he's fighting is a jihad. And he believes traditionally all Pakistan generals do that is that it is the Pakistan army that stands against India from taking over Pakistan.
14:06Right.
14:07And he thinks it's the Pakistan army's business to take Kashmir which is the unfinished business of the partition.
14:12Right.
14:13So, this man is indoctrinated in that and then comes with this zeal that he's coming because, you know, his background is his father's, you know, actually gives sermons in a mosque in Rawalpindi where he's growing up.
14:28And let's not forget his father is actually from Jalandhah. He sort of migrates over there. This man picks up that religious sort of fervor and is known as the Hafizic Quran.
14:37Okay.
14:38Because he can actually quote the entire Quran by memory.
14:41Yes.
14:42And uses that regularly in his speeches. So, you're looking at an opponent that is vastly different from the others. A guy who plans his business. So, I think what you have to do is to game him.
14:53Right. Which is you don't do knee-jerk stuff because he's not doing that.
14:57Okay.
14:58But this is where we have to look at things. He comes out with radical and surprising things. Here you have to beat that with your own radicalness and let us say irrationality.
15:09He's expecting you to do this, this, that. So, every planner I'm sure in India, the military guys who are gaming is saying what if, what if, what if and they're going through the whole questions that is there.
15:20Then they will make a move and that move should surprise him because he is making all the moves himself.
15:26Right. Gaurav.
15:27And that's where I think you have to, he's a formidable opponent. I'm not saying he has overreach. Let me be very, very clear. He's made a huge mistake in the valley. I believe so.
15:36Because of two things. One is that he has turned the valley against him. For the first time we saw protests that happened.
15:43Yes.
15:44And number two, let's not forget that within Pakistan.
15:48Okay.
15:49Right. There is a huge economic problem. You try to go to war with India, you already, Pakistan is under tremendous stress. He got over a poly crisis. There was, if you remember when he took over, the economy is complete collapse.
16:02The political establishment was almost, you know, in tatters and the internal rebellion that was going on. So, if you have to, you know, I think he's made a huge mistake because one, he's overreached and this confidence comes that he thinks he knows everything which is actually a disadvantage for a general.
16:21Right.
16:22Or anyone who is there. And the fact that he has taken on forces within Pakistan which are going to be very, very unhappy with us. And that dissent he tried to convert. He, the youth in Pakistan are very, very unhappy with what is happening.
16:36They, not because of him, but because jobs and distress is there. That discontent, he thought he will divert to India. But once he brings the India factor in, all these things that he was, you know, the Baloch rebels where the Jaffa Express, where the hijack of train happens, undermines the army.
16:54You mentioned Balochistan.
16:55You mentioned Balochistan. So, let's just go across to Gaurav. Gaurav, a very important point that Raj Chinkapa makes, I'd like you to respond to that. Can India game Asim Munir? But before that, a third scenario which Gaurav is going to explain, which is breaking up of Pakistan, ensuring that there is enough civil unrest to create a separate Balochistan which will completely break the back of the Pakistani establishment. Gaurav, over to you.
17:22So, you know, just on that simple point that you made about Asim Munir being that radical Islamist zealot, so was Zia. You know, a crate of mangoes and Zia's history ended. And that is how these zealots end up. You don't know who will have the next crate of mangoes in his aircraft, in his house and wherever else. He may be smarter. But, you know, the problem with Pakistani generals, including Musharraf, they're all, they think tactical. They're unable to think strategic. They're unable to think long term.
17:51You look at the history. Musharraf did, you know, a Kargil. He came into Kargil. He didn't have an exit. And the way he had wargamed it, it didn't happen that way.
18:00Similarly, with this guy, whoever's done, let's say, the 26-11 Mumbai terror attacks, they lost the narrative on Kashmir.
18:07Kargil attack, they lost the narrative on Kashmir. With this, they've lost the narrative on Kashmir.
18:12So, whatever they wanted, they've not only lost it and worse, in his case, in this waters treaty, it being held in abeyance, now he can cry till kingdom come.
18:22He can cry till kingdom come. He can recite any number of ayats of Quran. He's not getting that water unless India is handed over either Hafiz Said, Masood Azhar or we get what we want.
18:33Which is what?
18:35Well, are we looking at a scenario, the third scenario of a Pakistan that's…
18:40We don't want radical Islamist terrorists bleeding India. That is for sure.
18:45So, radical Islamist terrorism has to stop. We don't, you know, care whether he's a Hafiz Said Quran, good for him.
18:51But Hafiz Said Quran should not mean that he will send terrorists into India, kill Hindus and India will be okay with it.
18:57And India will do Galbainya with Pakistan or, you know, still have that Aman Ki Aasha and Pappi Jappi. That has to stop.
19:03And I think with this establishment, that is stopping. Pakistan has enough fault lines within. Enough fault lines.
19:09All we need to do is highlight the atrocities of Pakistan army in Balochistan, the enforced disappearances, the women who are half widows.
19:18Just highlight it at the United Nations. Pakistan's illegal occupation of Balochistan.
19:23But we've been doing that.
19:24In a much bigger way. Make it a national endeavor to highlight Pakistan's atrocities.
19:30Our support, yes, the Prime Minister, what he said from the ramparts of the Red Fort was a signal.
19:35Now you make that signal world class.
19:38What's happening in Khaybar Pakhtoonghua?
19:40You know, he's fighting the Pashtoons.
19:42A sane man would never fight his neighbor and best friend in the manner in which he is.
19:47He is in trouble. Can he, whatever he is, can he fight the 770 kilometer long line of control, 3,200 kilometers long of international border and 2,600 kilometers long of Durand line?
20:00Can he do that?
20:01India has to do nothing but just watch the way Pakistan's Durand line, when the Durand line burns.
20:07When Afghans say, we'll take over Peshawar, because Peshawar, Afghans consider their territory.
20:13Will this man be able to fight on multiple fronts?
20:15He has no money.
20:16And that is what India's big effort should be, to ensure that he doesn't get the financial, he quits on that financial action task force graylist.
20:22He doesn't get the IMF bailout.
20:25He may read the Quran, but when he has no money to feed his people, they will not want to read the Quran.
20:32They want breakfast, lunch and dinner.
20:35And that is the time he will get sorted out, hopefully.
20:37Okay, let's look at the fourth scenario.
20:40Maybe the more sensible one, but one which could cost and already has, like he said, has begun to cost Pakistan dearly.
20:50The diplomatic and military options that India could be considering.
20:55India has already done a few things like blocking, the banning of visas, banning artists.
21:00banning artists, keeping or putting Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.
21:05What could that really mean?
21:07Because these are diplomatic options right now.
21:09Downgrading the mission, sending defense attaches back.
21:12But there are military options also that India could look at.
21:16Surgical strikes, taking out terror launch pads, looking at hitting areas that could hurt Pakistan the most,
21:24but there's deniability there because we're looking at terror camps here.
21:28And how will that, what will the response of Pakistan be in such a scenario?
21:33In all probability, we will see, these are the summer months, so we could see an increase in infiltration.
21:39Ankit, if I could come to you, maybe last word from all of you, very quickly.
21:43Asint, are you looking at and picking up more details on infiltration bids that are increasing because we are looking at summers this time?
21:55I think the highest volume of infiltration that we had to see, we have already seen.
22:01The past 18 months have been one of the highest in terms of volume, both from open source point of view and also from intelligence reports.
22:12I don't think it is going to continue because of the, of course, because of what has happened in Pahalgam.
22:18One thing that I would like to ask Gaurav is, Gaurav, you said for Pakistan, fragmented Pakistan, but does India want a Pakistan divided in four parts?
22:31Will it work for India? Will it work better for us?
22:34Well, a strong Pakistan anyways means they have more resources to bleed you.
22:39Balochistan is not a part of Pakistan.
22:41If Pakistan is illegally occupied, if Balochistan is free, you know, Pakistan is weakened, it loses a lot of its land, it loses a lot of the resources.
22:52If Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pashtunistan comes up, it's good for the people of Pashtunistan.
22:57But will it not be a case of 100 militias, you know, roaming around Pakistan?
23:01Ek nag na te, ek saap na te, you deal with them together, you deal with them separately, you have to deal with the threat that comes from them.
23:08You know, they're evil, you have to appreciate that after so many decades of dealing, of being a victim of Pakistan's state-sponsored radical Islamist terror, and you need to befriend them.
23:17And then what happens?
23:17Afghanistan, Taliban are today afraid.
23:19Then what happens to the nukes?
23:20No, no, let me just come in.
23:22Look, it has demonstrated in the past that if India does anything as it is happening now, Pakistan gets together.
23:31It's not going to be easy to break up Pakistan.
23:32At the moment, they are, in many senses, going to be in unison.
23:37And I think I'll answer that when you talked of the Indus Water Treaty, that is our Brahmas in many senses, right, in terms of hitting them hard.
23:45Now, there's also a debate whether we should have gone first with that, because the rest is diplomatic pinpricks.
23:50We've done that before.
23:52Now, what is the disadvantage when you move too quickly on some of these things?
23:55Is that, who are you hitting? These are the two most populous provinces in Pakistan, which is Punjab and the Sin.
24:02Sin.
24:02Sin.
24:02Yes.
24:02Now, the moment you do that, that population, which could have had a lot of unrest, is going to unite behind Asim Munir.
24:10Precisely what he wanted, because he had a lot of descent.
24:13Now, the problem with that is that, so far, it was a battle for Kashmir, which was territorial, religious, whatever you might call it.
24:21Suddenly, it's a battle for your life.
24:23Right.
24:23And that is a different battle, because the moment the Punjabis and the Sindhis over there begin to get angry, they will say, let's do the worst with India.
24:33So far, you had two kinds of Pakistan.
24:35There was what I would call a jihadi Pakistan, which is the religious right Pakistan, which is what Munir is appealing to.
24:42And there is a non-jihadi Pakistan, which is once a federation, which is what Bajwa represented in terms of a geo-economic shit.
24:50You need to appeal to that stratum as well.
24:52And so, it is both a war that is, will be fought in terms of military options, it will be fought with diplomatic and other kinds of things with water.
25:01Sure.
25:01But, you bring everything that's right.
25:04We're completely out of time, gentlemen.
25:06If they unite, you unite.
25:09The fact remains, you cannot do a Sajda.
25:12India is united, and let's not forget, India is a strong country.
25:15You cannot do a Sajda to terror.
25:16So, okay, a united India is going to take on a united or disunited Pakistan.
25:24But the fact of the matter is that this is not going to be a short-term battle between India and Pakistan.
25:31This is going to be a long-drawn one.
25:33India would want to see Pakistan pay for what it has done in Pahlgaam and more.
25:39Thank you so much for joining us here on World's Day.
25:42Goodbye and take care.
25:43Thank you so much for joining us.