Sudan fighting: Could current clashes turn into a larger regional proxy war?
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Transcript
00:00 For more on this, I'm joined by our foreign affairs editor, Philip Turrell.
00:03 Philip, are risks growing that regional powers may attempt to intervene to support each of
00:08 these warring parties?
00:09 Well, if you look at the New York Times this weekend, there's a phrase in there which sums
00:14 it all up.
00:15 And it says, "Sudan has been up for grabs for years."
00:18 And that's what all these regional powers are keeping their eyes on, because now they're
00:22 in a situation in Sudan where there is no government, where there is a war taking place,
00:27 fighting between two rival sides.
00:29 It's weakening the whole structure of the country.
00:32 So you have all these neighbors around Sudan which are keeping a close eye on what is going
00:36 on there.
00:37 And depending on what their interests are, they are supporting one or other of the two
00:42 warring sides.
00:43 So we can start with Egypt.
00:45 And General El-Sisi of Egypt is supporting the country's military ruler in Sudan, General
00:51 Burhan, basically because the two men went to the same military school.
00:55 They're both military rulers.
00:57 And what General Sisi doesn't want is a militia-running Sudan in the south.
01:03 And it even clashes with Sudanese forces, between Sudanese forces and Egyptian forces
01:08 in the north of Sudan, are being blamed for the current state of the country and the increased
01:13 clashes between those two generals.
01:15 So Egypt definitely on the side of General Burhan.
01:18 Then you have, for example, you have the United Arab Emirates, which is keeping a close eye
01:25 on Sudan because it sees it as a country that's potentially lucrative for its agricultural
01:30 purposes of providing the United Arab Emirates with more food supplies in the future, for
01:36 example, if it can exploit the situation going on at the moment to make it more interesting
01:43 as far as agriculture is concerned, to allay their food worries in the United Arab Emirates.
01:51 Then next to that, you have Saudi Arabia.
01:54 Saudi Arabia is worried that if the situation is to get even worse in Sudan, then there
02:00 will be many migrants trying to flee across the sea to Saudi Arabia.
02:05 The two countries have a very long sea border with each other.
02:08 So therefore, their worst case scenario is that Sudan falls into a situation of no governments
02:16 at all and an interior civil war.
02:19 And then you also have Libya and Egypt.
02:23 And Libya has been providing aid.
02:28 General Khalifa, the Libyan warlord, has been providing aid to General Hamdan.
02:33 It's believed that he gave information to General Hamdan ahead of these latest clashes,
02:37 telling him how to organize that and what was the right time to start these clashes
02:41 were concerned.
02:43 So there's a lot of worry that also Libya could get involved in the situation in Sudan.
02:48 And that also is a very worrying development on the international front when so many countries
02:52 are trying to pull their nationals out of the country right now.
02:55 Philip, you mentioned the agriculture in Sudan.
02:57 It really is awash with natural resources, isn't it?
03:00 And that is, I think, the crux of the matter here, Jeannie, is that we see a country that
03:04 is practically without governance at the moment, which is in a very dangerous situation with
03:10 all these neighbours looking at it saying, well, there's a lot of very rich natural resources
03:15 in Sudan that we could get hold of, notably gold, uranium, chromite, gypsum, mica, marble
03:22 and iron ore.
03:24 All of those are important when it comes to extracting those natural minerals on the international
03:30 front.
03:31 They can be used for all sorts of things like fertilizers used in mobile phones.
03:35 They can be used for making plaster in spare car parts.
03:40 We don't even need to talk about the value of gold.
03:43 So all of these are very important when it comes to extracting them and they are underdeveloped
03:48 in Sudan.
03:49 So that, coupled with the idea that the country could be extremely useful when it comes to
03:53 agricultural reserves and providing food aid to other neighbouring countries, is also very
03:57 important.
03:59 So all of these elements together have made it pretty clear to the two warring sides that
04:03 for the moment they have more to win on the battlefield than they do getting around the
04:08 negotiating table.
04:09 And I think that is a very worrying development.
04:11 And the pulling out of diplomatic staff from Sudan is also fueling the feeling, I think,
04:16 amongst the warring factions that they have no excuses being put on them to stop the fighting.
04:22 They can carry on fighting because the international community is pulling its troops and its personnel
04:26 out of the country, leaving really the civilian population at the mercy of these two warring
04:32 factions.
04:33 All right, Philip, thank you for that.
04:34 France 24's Philip Turrell.
04:35 [BLANK_AUDIO]