Trump found guilty of sexual assault in "one of many legal battles"
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Transcript
00:00 Brown is political scientist and the author of Amateur Hour, Presidential Character, and
00:04 the Question of Leadership.
00:06 Thank you for speaking with us here on France 24.
00:09 Thank you so much for having me with you today.
00:12 What was your reaction when this verdict came in?
00:17 Is this a seminal moment, just part of a steady drip, or it won't matter?
00:23 Well, it was, I think, remarkable in the sense that it is rare that we see such a clear case
00:33 and also such a speedy deliberation.
00:38 It is the reality that former President Trump did not show up to this civil hearing.
00:45 He denies knowing this woman.
00:48 Despite having confused her with his ex-wife, he said that she was not his type, he's made
00:57 all sorts of really what a jury has held now to be false statements and that he committed
01:05 sexual assault in the 1990s and defamed the woman who told the truth.
01:11 So this is in many ways a victory for women, as E. Jean Carroll said, that they would be
01:18 believed in circumstances like this.
01:22 For the former president, it is one of many legal battles that he is facing this year
01:30 as he seeks the presidency.
01:33 He made those hot mic remarks when he ran for president in 2020 about being able to
01:42 have his way with women, and yet he's still got a lot of women to vote for him.
01:48 Will this matter in the eyes of female voters who voted for Donald Trump last time around?
01:54 Well, certainly I can tell you, having written my doctoral dissertation on congressional
02:01 scandals, one of the things that is true in the United States is that partisans back their
02:09 party nominees irrespective of whatever sort of scandals or other charges by the opposition
02:19 party arise.
02:21 So that one of the things that is true and has been true for President Trump from day
02:27 one is that Republican women consistently support his candidacy, and much of it has
02:34 to do with his stances on issues, namely being pro-life with respect to abortion.
02:43 Is this case more damning for the president than the one that was filed in criminal court
02:50 in New York City recently?
02:53 Or again, does it not matter?
02:55 Well, it's less damning in the sense that $5 million for President Trump is not a lot
03:04 of money.
03:05 It is more damning at the moment because there is essentially a guilty verdict.
03:13 But in the case that has been filed with Alvin Bragg in New York, that is a criminal case,
03:21 and certainly what attends that is the possibility of time in prison.
03:28 So I think we have to separate out what are the charges and what are the cases.
03:36 But there is no doubt Trump is in legal peril at every turn, and whether his supporters
03:42 support him or not, the reality is he is not expanding his number of supporters, and that
03:51 will be a problem for him when it comes time to a general election in this country.
03:56 All right, let me play devil's advocate here.
03:58 What he is doing is staying in the spotlight.
04:00 We're talking about the former president, you and I, right now, not about his rivals.
04:06 And later, he's going to be attending, he's not backing out of it, a town hall style meeting
04:13 with voters in New Hampshire, one of the first states to vote in the 2024 primaries.
04:19 Again, if he keeps the limelight, he's a former TV reality TV star, and he knows how to do
04:27 it.
04:28 Is he a shoo-in for the nomination?
04:30 Well, I think whether or not he's a shoo-in for the nomination has to do with how much
04:38 other Republicans decide that he is a surefire loser in the presidential race in November
04:46 of 2024.
04:48 In other words, there are Republicans who question his electability, and rightly so,
04:55 but he is popular among Republican voters, and no other Republican candidate thus far
05:03 has been able to break in.
05:05 So it is true that he is staying in the limelight, but I would assert that there will be a cumulative
05:13 weight and damage that will make him really a quite impaired general election candidate.
05:21 What was your reaction when you saw that poll last week that said that by ABC News that
05:26 he would lose, that he would rather beat Joe Biden?
05:30 Well, I will tell you that I didn't quite agree with it for a couple of reasons.
05:36 The most important one as a political scientist is that when you look at President Biden's
05:44 support, his support is fractured.
05:48 And it is the case that when you get close to an election, the party's nominees' support
05:56 will essentially coalesce and will solidify.
06:01 Former President Trump has a base that runs in lockstep.
06:05 In other words, his support never really fractures.
06:09 So you were comparing two candidates who really couldn't be compared right now.
06:16 And it's just a false kind of reading to say, well, if the election were held today, who
06:22 would win when the election is not held today?
06:26 And in fact, many Democrats are not even really paying attention to the presidential race
06:32 yet because President Biden has no nomination challenge.
06:38 And he has just recently announced his own candidacy.
06:44 The incumbent who has sent federal troops this week to the border with Mexico, who's
06:50 talked tough on China, who's delivered on infrastructure spending, something that Donald
06:59 Trump had promised back in 2016, a lot of their policies are similar.
07:04 What is different is these culture issues, how you act with women, most notably in this
07:12 case with this civil suit.
07:15 Is that going to be the deciding factor, just as the abortion question was the deciding
07:20 factor in those midterm elections for many pollsters?
07:24 Well, look, it really, again, depends on who you're talking about, what constituency you're
07:30 looking at.
07:31 If you're looking at Democrats, Democrats find former President Trump repugnant and
07:37 will do whatever it takes to get to the polls to vote against him.
07:42 Republicans, on the other hand, feel that he is a fighter and he fights for them and
07:49 they are willing to support him based upon his past performance and their expectation
07:56 that he would continue to fight on their behalf going forward.
08:01 But independents are really the ones who make up the margins in our elections and independents
08:08 have largely not yet decided where they're going to come out.
08:14 That said, most polls show independents find President Trump also to be unfit for the presidency,
08:25 which is why they have sided with Democrats in the last few elections.
08:31 The abortion issue will matter.
08:33 It certainly has mattered in some very conservative states lately with some referenda there.
08:41 So I imagine that we are headed for what will be a contested presidential election because
08:48 they are never not.
08:50 But I think we are looking at two very flawed candidates and the country will have to decide
08:57 which candidate is sort of the worst.
09:01 All right.
09:02 We'll be looking, I hope, very soon again with you, Lara Brown, at what those independents
09:08 do in the end.
09:09 Thank you for joining us from Washington.
09:10 Thank you.
09:10 Thank you.