Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Samuel Rahmani from the Royal United Services Institute.
00:02 Samuel, good evening to you.
00:05 I'm going to put you on the spot and ask you straight.
00:07 Who do you think did this, Russia or Ukraine?
00:09 Well, I think that the evidence is overwhelming that it's probably Russia.
00:15 It seems to be coming through, obviously, from US intelligence documents that have been
00:19 given to NBC News, for example, and the statements from most NATO ministers need to reflect this.
00:25 Also it's important to keep in mind that the Russians have basically launched a false flag.
00:29 About Ukraine and their responsibility for this dam back as early as last summer.
00:34 So the Russians have been preparing for this for quite a long time.
00:37 Samuel, what are the consequences of this breach, both in terms of on the ground for
00:42 people concerned in the area, but also militarily?
00:46 So I would say that the consequences for people on the ground is very, very tragic.
00:50 Obviously, it's going to lead to a mass displacement of people.
00:53 I've already seen that happen in Khorasan.
00:56 But when you look at the military dynamics, I don't think it's going to have that much
00:59 of an immediate negative effect on the counter offensive, because the primary axes of the
01:03 Ukrainian counter offensive are in South Donetsk, the outskirts of Bakhmut, Prokifka, for example,
01:09 and also along the Tsaparizhia axis, the Molotov.
01:12 Khorasan and the other side of it, the Dnieper River, is a secondary axis at best.
01:17 So I think it's much worse for the local population than it is for the Ukrainian military.
01:21 Samuel, we heard in our report Vladimir Zelensky talking about how important the dam is and
01:25 saying that this could not have been done from outside.
01:27 It had to be an inside job, i.e. the Russians.
01:30 Why is this dam so strategically important?
01:33 Well, the dam is strategically important because of the location, right?
01:38 It's obviously in close proximity, not just to Khorasan, but also to some of the crucial
01:41 nuclear plants.
01:43 And obviously, so far, we've seen evidence in the IAEA that the detonation of the dam
01:47 has not threatened the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
01:50 But it's very clear that any kind of detonation here could have had massive reverberations
01:55 for Ukraine's, tell them, Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
01:58 That's probably what he's referring to.
02:00 It's of great economic importance and also risks nuclear Armageddon that this would have
02:05 spiraled even more out of control.
02:07 How do you interpret this from Russia's perspective in the sense that what is this telling us
02:13 about Russia's state of mind at this present moment in time?
02:16 What does this attack tell us about Russia's command?
02:19 Well, basically, what it's showing is that Russia's got very limited means to be able
02:23 to escalate against the Ukrainians conventionally.
02:26 And we've seen that with their threats to bomb decision making centers in Kiev, only
02:31 defined as their vast majority of their missiles and their drones, keep getting intercepted
02:34 by the neo-class air defenses.
02:36 So they have very few conventional options.
02:38 And one of the only things they can do is cause a massive disturbance like this by attacking
02:42 the Novokarkovka Dam.
02:44 I think we should interpret it as a sign of Russia's conventional military weakness, and
02:47 not a show of strength or a power play for Moscow.
02:51 I'm Nirmal Mahdi from the Royal United Services Institute.
02:53 Thank you very much indeed for joining us here in France 24.
02:55 We appreciate your time, sir.
02:56 Thank you.
02:57 Thank you very much.