• last year
Big defeats for the Conservative Party after by-election losses in the West Country and Yorkshire however a glimmer of hope for prime minister sunak after his party held Boris Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge - clinging on there with a majority in the hundreds

The fact that the Conservatives lost two out of three elections brings disappointment to their camp. They may try to soften the blow by referring to it as a 'mixed bag of results.' However, one undeniable commonality among all three elections is the swing away from the party . The Labour Party achieved record-breaking success in Shelby, and Kier Starmer is likely to capitalise on that momentum.

In the south west the question is has the time turned for the Liberal Democrat’s. Will their success be repeated in the general elections where they are not able to push all their resources into one constituency.

In Uxbridge the conservatives hold with just a few hundred seats, their winner Steve tuck well said mr sunaks ulez, policy lost them the seat.

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00:00 Westminster has been acting like the next election is a done deal, the
00:04 Labour Party has been acting like it is a done deal, the people of
00:07 Uxbridge have told all of them that it is not. I can understand why
00:12 Prime Minister Sonac is going to take solace in the fact that they
00:14 have held on, surprisingly, to Uxbridge and Rathrox-Riselip, but
00:20 with a much reduced majority. Clearly, what it is about, we know that
00:25 Boris Johnson is going to be a big impact. There is a big question
00:30 whether Boris Johnson would have held on to it had he not decided he
00:33 would run away rather than fight this one. As to whether it heralds a
00:37 new dawn for the Conservatives, I think not. You look at the outcomes
00:41 in the other two seats that were held yesterday and quite clearly the
00:44 Conservatives are still in big trouble. The fact that the
00:47 Conservatives lost two out of three of those by-elections brings
00:51 disappointment to their camp. They may try to soften the blow by
00:55 getting a mixed bag of results in the next few days. In Yorkshire, the
00:59 Labour Party achieved record-breaking success and Keir Starmer is likely
01:04 to capitalise on that momentum. Over 20% swing, that is phenomenal.
01:09 Quite clearly, if that were a piece of the general election, I imagine
01:13 we would be seeing a Labour Party coming in the next general election
01:17 without any doubt whatsoever. It is the second largest swing since the
01:21 Second World War, so that tells you the magnitude. What does that also
01:27 tell us? I think this is a big protest vote against the government
01:31 and quite clearly, and we saw that also in the other by-election, people
01:35 are sick and tired of this administration. They want change.
01:39 Whether that will be a repeat of the general election, really doubtful
01:42 because strange things happen at by-elections. In the south-west, the
01:45 question is, has the tide turned for the Liberal Democrats? Will their
01:50 success be repeated in the general election, where they are not able to
01:54 push all of their resources into one constituency? I suspect what they
01:59 will do is that they will have to concentrate their resources where
02:03 they think they will have the best results. Clearly, the south-west is
02:06 the big place, but a number of blue wall seats, where, as we have seen
02:10 elsewhere, the blue wall is starting to crumble. In Uxbridge, the
02:15 Conservatives howled but with just a few hundred votes. Their winner,
02:20 Steve Tuckwell, said Mr Sonnac's Uless policy lost them the seat.
02:25 Quite clearly, people are really resentful of something which is going
02:29 to cost them money to drive around in the suburbs. It is not surprising
02:33 that the Conservatives used this as a stick with which to beat Labour. I
02:38 think it has cost them this by-election. What will happen at the
02:42 general election? It was an issue particular to London. The swing seen
02:46 in these free by-elections will massively concern the Prime Minister
02:50 and indeed the whole Conservative Party. They are losing seats that
02:54 were formerly theirs with massive swings. There are concerns that Mr
02:58 Sonnac has failed to change the political weather.
03:01 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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