Since Rishi Sunak's disastrous trip to the polls, quitting after losing power to Labour for the first time in 14 years, the Conservatives have been locked in a leadership campaign.Six was whittled down to a final four, with Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat duking it out to win the leadership and return a fractious and bewildered party back to power. But can they do it and who's most likely to succeed?The Independent's Kate Devlin and John Rentoul cast an eye over the field of candidates, picking out their positives and their negatives and deciding who it is who'll next face Kier Starmer at the dispatch box in Westminster.
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00:00So, we're down to the final four candidates to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative leader.
00:05So John and I thought we would rank them in terms of who's going to win.
00:10Well, Robert Jenrick is currently the favourite.
00:14Then we've got Kemi, where is she, she's over here, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverley and Tom
00:22Tugendhat.
00:23Now what's going to happen is they're going to engage in a sort of beauty contest at Tory
00:29party conference in Birmingham.
00:30They each get to speak for 20 minutes to put their case to the members.
00:36But actually, it'll be the MPs who vote first to reduce them to two.
00:40And then the last two names get put to the party members who will decide.
00:45So what's it going to be?
00:46Well, first of all, John, I think you're being very kind and calling it a beauty contest.
00:51Dare I remind you that this is politics, which is your business for ugly people.
00:58I think what's going to happen is that we're going to see, like you say, a parade and we're
01:04going to see quite a lot of these four people over the next couple of weeks.
01:10And can they change the fortunes of both themselves and their party?
01:17Or are they just going to end up with the front runner, and I think you and I disagree
01:24over who the front runner is, with the front runner taking the crown?
01:28Well, yes.
01:29I mean, at the moment, the bookies say that Robert Jenner is the front runner, although
01:34it started off with Kemi in the lead.
01:38I still think Kemi might make it in the end.
01:42But the really interesting question before we get there is all the sort of tactical considerations
01:47among Tory MPs as to who the final two are going to be.
01:52Because James Cleverley did extremely well in the first round, not so well in the second
01:56round of voting.
01:59And there was a lot of talk about how he was the stop Jenrick candidate for the MPs who
02:04don't like Robert Jenrick.
02:07But I think they're actually going to coalesce behind Kemi as the stop Jenrick candidate,
02:12because I think she's got the best chance of beating Robert Jenrick in the final round.
02:17So if we think, and I think we do, that these two are edging towards the top, do we both
02:28think that these two are going to be going out once the MPs have had their votes?
02:35Yes.
02:36Or is there a chance that there might be a late rally?
02:38Well, I mean, Tom Tugendhat, I think he's already too far behind.
02:42I think he's in fourth place.
02:44He doesn't have enough of a reason for people to vote for him.
02:48The big question is, because normally, this divides into sort of right versus left, who's
02:54going to be the most right wing candidate in the final two.
02:59James Cleverley is considered to be a centrist, you know, on the left of the party, although,
03:04you know, he's, you know, he was Home Secretary, he voted Leave, well, they all voted Leave,
03:10apart from Tom.
03:13And, you know, the big question is, which of these is going to be considered to be more
03:17right wing by the party members?
03:19Yes, I think you're right.
03:21And I think that's fascinating.
03:23So at the start of this competition, an awful lot of people thought that there would be
03:26a candidate from the right, and there would be a One Nation candidate, and that that would
03:31probably be somewhere between Tom Tugendhat, very much a standard bearer of the right,
03:38could James Cleverley pick up enough One Nation.
03:43But I think what's happened really, is that Tory MPs are interested in jobs.
03:49And so we have seen quite a lot of people go behind, not necessarily who they would
03:55agree with ideologically, but who they would agree with, because they're probably going
03:59to be the next leader of the Conservative Party.
04:01Absolutely.
04:02There's been quite a bit of, well, I mean, let's be blunt, careerism, Victoria Atkins,
04:11One Nation, former Health Secretary, came out for Robert Jenrick, because she thinks
04:17Robert Jenrick's going to win, not because, as you say, not because she agrees with him.
04:22But I mean, the question is, I mean, right and left, very difficult terms in the modern
04:27Tory party.
04:28Which of those is the more right wing?
04:29I mean, it's hard.
04:30It's hard to say.
04:31Right.
04:32We're getting, we're getting rid of the One Nation tendency in the party.
04:36Is that the, is that the end of One Nation?
04:39I don't think so.
04:40I think the One Nation tendency is just going to, they're going to go off, they're going
04:45to lick their wounds, and they're going to wait, and they're going to stage a comeback.
04:51But this is a tendency within this party that has a long, a long and respected history.
04:59It isn't going away anytime soon.
05:01And to be honest, there are people from that side of the party who think that this is their
05:07party, and that it being dragged to the right by some of the more extreme people is not
05:14the party they joined.
05:15And both of these candidates are presenting themselves as unity candidates who can bring
05:21the One Nation side of the party with them.
05:24Which is really important.
05:25So they know that that's an important side that they've got to appeal to.
05:28And I think that unlike Liz Truss, who, you know, I expected her to move towards the centre
05:35ground once she won the leadership, and she didn't, which was absolutely disastrous.
05:39I think either of these two will move towards the centre ground of politics, because that
05:44I think is where, where elections are won and lost.
05:47That's interesting, because I was going to ask you who you thought Keir Starmer should
05:52want to go up against.
05:54He should want to go up against Robert Jenrick, because, you know, I mean, Robert Jenrick
05:59just looks like another white male politician, whereas Kemi looks different and sounds different
06:06and is different.
06:07I mean, she actually has, she does believe in stuff and has said some quite outrageous
06:12things.
06:13I mean, the only thing that I think can stop her is if she blows up her own campaign.
06:17If you're listening to Robert Jenrick, he does just sound exactly like Rishi Sunak.
06:23And Keir Starmer was able to dispatch Rishi Sunak quite easily at PMQs every week.
06:30So I think if you were looking from the Labour Party's point of view, I think you would probably
06:36want Robert to win.
06:38Kemi, it is them.
06:40And what we should say as well is whoever does win inherits quite a difficult...
06:48A very, very difficult situation.
06:49A very difficult situation.
06:51So you may think to yourself, goodness, this competition has been going on for quite a
06:56long time.
06:57And the truth is, because it has, and what's going to happen when we eventually get a winner
07:03is that it will be announced on November 2nd, which is really important for two reasons.
07:08One, it's just before we get the result of the United States election and we find out
07:15whether Donald Trump is president or not.
07:17So it will be difficult for this person to make their mark.
07:22November 2nd this year is also the Day of the Dead, which just shows you the kind of
07:30poison chalice that the person who takes over has.
07:33They have very few MPs now.
07:35They have a very difficult challenge to win in five years' time.
07:38Can they resuscitate this party after being elected on the Day of the Dead?
07:43Well, quite.
07:45History would suggest that whoever the next Tory prime minister is, it's not going to
07:50be any of these people because they may have to go through another one.
07:53But we'll see.
07:55Which of these potential leaders causes the most problems for Nigel Farage?
07:59Well, I mean, that's got to be their pitch, I think, to the party members rather than...
08:06I mean, it's the final pitch is that they've got to be the leader that will take back those
08:10votes from reform that they lent to reform.
08:16And that's why Robert Jenrick makes so much of immigration.
08:22As former immigration minister, he can argue that the previous government got it wrong.
08:29He will try to associate Kemi Bainock with the previous government, although he was part
08:34of it too.
08:35I mean, he resigned fairly late on.
08:39But I think it's all about authenticity, and Kemi Bainock's going to make the case
08:45that she is a proper conservative.
08:49She wants control of immigration too.
08:52She just doesn't go along with some of the wilder theories about withdrawing from the
08:56European Court of Human Rights.
08:58I think I agree with you.
08:59And I think it's because, and this is the double-edged sword for Kemi Bainock, is she
09:04is unpredictable if you're a member of the public or if you're another politician like
09:09Farage.
09:10And I think she will keep him on his toes.
09:13The problem is sometimes the things that she says unpredictably actually don't go down
09:18as well as she is expecting, and that can prove difficult for her.
09:22But I think Farage could easily outflank Jenrick, and that would be the problem that he would
09:31have, whereas Kemi would keep him on his toes.
09:35Well, I think Kemi would keep anybody on their toes.
09:38That's why I think she's their secret weapon.
09:40Right, so we're agreed that Tom's going to go out probably first.
09:47I think James Cleverley will then go out just leaving these two.
09:53You think he's going to win.
09:54I think she's going to win.
09:55We shall wait and see.
09:57Whoever does win, I think, will tack towards the centre in order to try and cause Labour
10:05the most difficulties in the next general election.