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00:00 or to help us understand what the situation means for the region at large, I earlier spoke
00:04 to Nathaniel Powell, West Africa analyst at Oxford Analytica.
00:09 Several ways it could go.
00:12 If the military continues to pursue the strategy that Bazoom was pursuing before, which is
00:17 a relatively holistic counterinsurgency strategy that was comparatively successful compared
00:22 to Niger's neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali, then it's...
00:27 And if at the same time they pursue a transition, a relatively swift political transition back
00:32 to elected civilian rule, it's possible that their international partners will continue
00:37 their support, and maybe nothing changes, particularly in a negative direction.
00:45 What's perhaps more likely, though, if the military is in control, we might see a more
00:49 hands-off counterinsurgency strategy, which means more violence, potentially against civilians,
00:53 which can only benefit jihadist groups.
00:57 And even if that doesn't happen, the mere fact of insecurity and instability in the
01:01 capital and uncertainty around Niger's foreign relations, whether it's with Western partners
01:06 or regionally, will probably divert some of the military and government's attention away
01:11 from the struggle against insecurity.
01:14 Well, now, we've always seen Niger as one of the last bastions of Western support in
01:20 the Sahel region, and we saw in the coup demonstrations in support of the coup earlier today, many
01:26 Russian flags being flown.
01:29 What does that say about the possible infiltration of Wagner power, the Russian Wagner group,
01:37 in basically taking over and filling up that vacuum?
01:42 Well, it's highly unlikely that Wagner would just appear out of nowhere.
01:47 Wagner only appears in countries where it's invited in.
01:52 It's also, there's absolutely no evidence that the coup was directed by or anything
01:57 to do with Russia or any connection with Russia.
02:00 None of the coup plotters seem to have any connections with Russia or Russians in the
02:04 Wagner group.
02:05 The reasons behind the coup are particular to Niger and to the situation which the Nigerian
02:10 government and particularly Mohamed Bouzoum was facing, and the long history of military
02:15 tensions both within the military and between the military and civilian authorities that
02:19 go back generations in Niger.
02:22 So I would say that the likelihood that the Wagner group shows up and turns Niger into
02:28 a sort of Mali requires a number of intermediary steps, and it won't happen overnight.
02:35 And if it does, it will be because certain elements in the military see it as in their
02:41 political interest, not because of Russian pressure.
02:45 And now let's talk about those possible mediating powers, the likes of ECOWAS, the West African
02:53 regional group.
02:55 They say they want the situation to resolve itself by reinstating the president into his
03:02 position.
03:03 But if we compare it to other situations like in Mali, Burkina Faso, what power do they
03:08 really have to affect change?
03:10 Well, that's the sad--the tragedy of ECOWAS is that its power is quite limited, especially
03:16 when it comes to coercive power.
03:19 It did impose sanctions on Mali for six months, very heavy sanctions, but it didn't really
03:23 manage to change the trajectory of the regime.
03:27 So it's unclear whether they'll--probably they won't overnight impose those kind of sanctions
03:32 over Niger.
03:33 They'll try to negotiate with whatever junta is in place.
03:38 And over time, what will probably happen is that there'll be some kind of face-saving
03:42 arrangement between ECOWAS and the junta over an agreed-upon transitional period.
03:49 But ECOWAS's overall influence will unfortunately be relatively limited.
03:52 Even with Bola Tinda, the head of ECOWAS at the moment, he's trying to exert a more--he's
03:56 the Nigerian president trying to exert a more assertive role for both Nigeria and ECOWAS
04:00 against coups.
04:01 They don't seem to have the capability to reverse this or to impact this in a really
04:07 of significant way.