AccuWeather meteorologists say that the tropics are rather quiet with only weeks to go in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
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00:00 Tropics remain now quiet.
00:03 It's been quiet over the last couple of weeks.
00:05 And you know what?
00:06 For the first time in a while, I don't have anything highlighted as a concern for development
00:12 across the Atlantic Basin.
00:13 There are some clouds.
00:15 You can do see this is the intertropical ITCC, the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
00:20 I don't think there's any concern here.
00:23 We still have moisture in the central Caribbean.
00:26 Not much associated with that at this moment.
00:28 So really nothing over the next seven days we're too concerned about.
00:32 And there's a reason for that.
00:33 I want to show you the wind shear product.
00:35 So what you're looking at here is the wind shear.
00:39 Strong winds in the middle upper part of the atmosphere.
00:41 When you have a lot of wind shear, you don't get any development.
00:43 And our wind shear product, look at where we have the strong winds here in the dark
00:47 purple.
00:48 Almost all of the Atlantic Basin is closed for business.
00:53 Notice where it's not.
00:54 Yeah, in the Caribbean.
00:57 That's one area that you're going to have to pay attention to over the next couple of
01:01 weeks for the possibility of development.
01:03 But here, while we don't have any wind shear in the Caribbean, you see what else is going
01:07 on though?
01:08 A lot of dry air.
01:09 A lot of dry air.
01:10 So even though we have light winds aloft, you have a lot of dry air.
01:14 Water temperatures certainly are still warm no matter where you look.
01:18 But that wind shear is going to be unfavorable for development right in the next week.
01:24 So all of next week.
01:25 So if you think about it, this is going to, wind shear will prevent much of any development,
01:30 at least in the Atlantic Basin, to at least the third week in November.
01:35 At least the third week in November.
01:36 Now listen, you have to worry about this.
01:39 Water temperatures.
01:40 Where are they warmest?
01:41 Where the water's been untouched most of this hurricane season in the Caribbean.
01:46 And remember, this is an area that you have low wind shear.
01:49 So if we see any development, I don't really see any here, at least in the next week to
01:53 ten days, the area to watch is going to be in the Caribbean.
01:56 Now historically, once you get past November 10th, you can see there's a little bump here
02:02 late in November.
02:03 But since we have a moderate to strong El Nino, I think, and you tend to get strong
02:07 wind shear in moderate to strong El Ninos, I think this is going to flatline here.
02:13 And maybe we get another storm.
02:15 But it's going to be relatively quiet here as we go through the rest of November.
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