Mattel stock analysis. MAT stock.
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Shares in Toy company Mattel have risen 20% this year as the stock rides the hype from the new Barbie movie which comes out this week.
At the latest share price, the company has a market cap of 7.6 billion. It’s got 462 million in cash and 2.3 billion in long term debt so the enterprise value is 9.5 billion.
Revenue over the last 12 months is 5.2 billion, net income is 266 million and free cash flow is 187 million. So Mattel stock is valued at 1.8 times revenue, 29 times earnings and 51 times free cash flow with a net income margin of 5.1%.
Mattel makes money from a large variety of toys but there are three brands that stand out. Fisher-Price which makes up 17% of revenue, Hot Wheels which makes up 21% and Barbie which makes up 25%.
The Barbie movie which comes out this week is tipped to be a blockbuster with an estimated 100m box office and it’s just the first of 17 other films in the pipeline that feature Mattel products.
Social media mentions and early reviews all point to this being a massive hit and google search volume for the term ‘barbie doll’ is already at a 5 year high.
Although we don’t know how much Mattel will make from box office receipts, the company has signed over 100 brand collaborations so its likely that the Barbie movie is going to provide a significant boost to this year’s revenue.
#mattelstock #investing #stockstotwatch #overlookedalpha
Visit our website for new ideas: https://www.overlookedalpha.com
Shares in Toy company Mattel have risen 20% this year as the stock rides the hype from the new Barbie movie which comes out this week.
At the latest share price, the company has a market cap of 7.6 billion. It’s got 462 million in cash and 2.3 billion in long term debt so the enterprise value is 9.5 billion.
Revenue over the last 12 months is 5.2 billion, net income is 266 million and free cash flow is 187 million. So Mattel stock is valued at 1.8 times revenue, 29 times earnings and 51 times free cash flow with a net income margin of 5.1%.
Mattel makes money from a large variety of toys but there are three brands that stand out. Fisher-Price which makes up 17% of revenue, Hot Wheels which makes up 21% and Barbie which makes up 25%.
The Barbie movie which comes out this week is tipped to be a blockbuster with an estimated 100m box office and it’s just the first of 17 other films in the pipeline that feature Mattel products.
Social media mentions and early reviews all point to this being a massive hit and google search volume for the term ‘barbie doll’ is already at a 5 year high.
Although we don’t know how much Mattel will make from box office receipts, the company has signed over 100 brand collaborations so its likely that the Barbie movie is going to provide a significant boost to this year’s revenue.
#mattelstock #investing #stockstotwatch #overlookedalpha
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Shares in toy company Mattel have risen 20% this year as the stock rides the hype
00:05 from the new Barbie movie which comes out this week.
00:08 At the latest share price the company has a market cap of $7.6 billion. It's got $462 million in cash
00:15 and $2.3 billion in long-term debt so the enterprise value is $9.5 billion. Revenue
00:21 over the last 12 months is $5.2 billion, net income is $266 million and free cash flow is $187 million.
00:29 So Mattel stock is valued at 1.8 times revenue, 29 times earnings and 51 times free cash flow
00:36 with a net income margin of 5.1%. Mattel makes money from a large variety of toys
00:42 but there are three brands that stand out. Fisher-Price which makes up 17% of revenue,
00:48 Hot Wheels which makes up 21% and Barbie which makes up 25%. The Barbie movie which comes out
00:55 this week is tipped to be a blockbuster with an estimated $100 million box office and it's just
01:00 the first of 17 other films in the pipeline that feature Mattel products. Social media mentions and
01:06 early reviews all point to this being a massive hit and Google's search volume for the term Barbie
01:12 doll is already at a five-year high. Although we don't know how much Mattel will make from
01:17 box office receipts, the company has signed over 100 brand collaborations so it's likely that the
01:23 Barbie movie is going to provide a significant boost to this year's revenue. However, the toy
01:28 business is extremely competitive and low margin. Kids have so many choices and Mattel revenues
01:34 have been on a downward trend for years. Profit margins have also been volatile with the company
01:39 posting negative operating income in 2017 and 2018. In addition, the company has accrued a large pile
01:47 of debt of $2.3 billion. There's also a good comparison here in the case of Paw Patrol creator
01:53 Spin Master. Spin Master's stock rallied 100% in 2021 in the run-up to the Paw Patrol movie
01:59 but after the movie was released the stock essentially went nowhere. Let's assume an
02:04 optimistic scenario where Mattel grows revenue 20% this year and hits a net income margin of 8%.
02:09 That could potentially see the company record 500 million of net income. A 20 times multiple on that
02:16 figure gets us to a valuation of $9.8 billion which is roughly 28% upside from the current price.
02:23 That doesn't seem like a huge amount of upside considering the risks involved. This is a business
02:28 that needs to run very fast just to stand still. The stock could move higher as we approach the
02:33 Christmas season and management does seem to be on the right track but this is not really the kind
02:38 of business I want to invest into so I give it a neutral rating. But these are my personal opinions
02:44 not financial advice and I've got no position in Mattel's stock. For more detailed analysis
02:49 make sure to visit our website overlookedalpha.com