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ZIM stock analysis. Zim Integrated Shipping Services.
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In 2022, the operating profit of ZIM was $6.1 billion and net income was 4.6 billion, which is significantly higher than today’s market cap.

The company also has $3.2 billion in cash and investments and $2.5 billion in lease liabilities.

So looking purely at the financials and the balance sheet ZIM looks undervalued. The business is valued at half last years earnings and incredibly, has more cash on its balance sheet than its current market cap.

However, it’s worth mentioning the company pays interest on 2.7 billion of lease liabilities.

And looking at the P/E ratio is meaningless in this case because the coming years are going to be very challenging for ZIM.

The high freight rates that we saw during lockdowns are a thing of the past and demand is being crushed by inflation. So the most likely outcome is a reduction in freight rates to pre-pandemic levels.

Shipping is intensely competitive and low margin so ZIM will see significant pressure to its bottom line. In fact, based on analyst estimates, earnings per share will turn negative in 2023, and stay there.

In other words, ZIM has several years of losses ahead and that’s going to eat up cash from the balance sheet.

Moreover, management typically pays 30-50% of net income in the form of dividends but if net income turns negative then investors can expect the dividend to be significantly reduced.

And a reduced dividend is going to frustrate investors and put further pressure on the stock.

ZIM has cash to play with and perhaps it could scale down part of its business or move into something higher margin. But these types of stocks are notoriously boom or bust and depend very much on macro conditions. And it’s worth nothing that ZIM has a high short interest of over 20%.

Overall, there may be some reasons to buy ZIM stock but shipping stocks are best left to industry experts and I see too many red flags to warrant an investment. I therefore give this stock a neutral rating. But these are my personal opinions not financial advice.

#stocks #investing #zimstock #stockstowatch

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Transcript
00:00 Should you buy Zim Integrated Shipping, ticker symbol ZIM?
00:04 If there's one event that stands out in the last couple of years, it's the pandemic.
00:09 Covid had a significant impact on the lives of so many people,
00:13 and lockdowns caused supply chains to go haywire. The increase in demand for goods
00:18 during the pandemic allowed freight companies to charge premium prices,
00:22 and this caused freight rates to hit record levels. One of the companies to benefit from
00:27 all this was freight business Zim, which has a current market cap of $2.4 billion.
00:32 After posting flat revenue for almost a decade, Zim grew revenue by 169% in 2021
00:40 to $10.7 billion, and it increased even further to $12.6 billion in 2022.
00:47 Before the pandemic, Zim was struggling to barely break even, but profits ballooned in 2020 and
00:53 kept increasing. In 2022, the operating profit of Zim was $6.1 billion and net income was $4.6 billion,
01:01 which is significantly higher than today's market cap. The company also has $3.2 billion in cash and
01:07 investments, and $2.5 billion in lease liabilities. So looking purely at the financials and the
01:14 balance sheet, Zim looks undervalued. The business is valued at half last year's earnings, and
01:19 incredibly, it's got more cash on its balance sheet than its current market cap. However, looking at
01:25 the P/E ratio is meaningless in this case because the coming years are going to be very challenging
01:30 for Zim. The high freight rates that we saw during lockdowns are a thing of the past, and demand is
01:36 being crushed by inflation, so the most likely outcome is a reduction in freight rates to pre-
01:41 pandemic levels and a reduction in Zim's revenue. Shipping is intensely competitive and low margin,
01:48 so Zim will see significant pressure to its bottom line. In fact, based on analyst estimates,
01:54 earnings per share will turn negative in 2023 and stay there for the next few years. In other words,
02:01 Zim has several years of losses ahead and that's going to eat up cash from the balance sheet.
02:06 Moreover, management typically pays 30-50% of net income in the form of dividends, but if net income
02:13 turns negative, then investors can expect that dividend to be significantly reduced as well.
02:18 And the reduced dividend is going to frustrate investors and put pressure on the stock.
02:23 Zim has cash to play with, and perhaps it could scale down part of its business or move into
02:29 something higher margin, but these types of stocks are notoriously boom or bust and depend very much
02:35 on macro conditions, and it's worth noting that Zim has a high short interest of over 20%.
02:42 Overall, there may be some reasons to buy Zim's stock, but shipping stocks are best
02:46 left to industry experts and I see too many red flags to warrant an investment. I therefore give
02:52 this stock a neutral rating, but these are my personal opinions, not financial advice,
02:57 and I've got no position in this stock.

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