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Uber reported strong results last week and said that passenger numbers had climbed above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, Lyft spoke of economic headwinds and revealed their passenger numbers were still below pre-pandemic levels.
That explains why Lyft stock is down -75% year to date while Uber is only down -35%.
And at a share price of $27 dollars Uber now has a market cap of 53 billion. With 4.9 billion of cash and 10 billion of debt the enterprise value is roughly 58 billion.
In context, the company made 29 billion dollars in revenue over the last 12 months. But it’s still not profitable, losing -8.8 billion over the last 12 months.
However, that loss includes 1.6 billion dollars of stock based compensation and 6.3 billion of losses from Uber’s equity investments. These include its investments in Grab and Chinese ride sharing app Didi Global.
Account for those items and the company made an adjusted ebitda profit of 1.1 billion over the last 12 months and it’s been free cash flow positive for the last 2 quarters.
That means the company is now valued at 2 times revenue or 52 times adjusted ebitda.
That’s expensive but Uber is still growing, revenue was up 72%, and the company has done well to expand its business through Uber Eats, Freight and advertising.
It costs almost nothing to add drivers to Uber’s fleet and every trip adds incremental revenue for Uber at little cost.
Although Uber isn’t immune to a weakening economy, mass layoffs do expand the pool of potential drivers.
Crucially, Uber is making real progress to profitability and taking market share from rivals.
Management thinks it can hit 5 billion in ebitda by 2024. An 18 times multiple on that figure gets the enterprise value to 90 billion dollars. That’s about 55% upside in the stock.
There’s also optionality from Uber’s investments particularly in Didi Global, if or when China fully opens up.
After years of losses it's easy to be pessimistic about Uber stock but there’s a real chance of growth here which is why I rate the stock a cautious buy.
But these are my personal opinions, not financial advice. And I do have a long position in Uber stock.
Uber reported strong results last week and said that passenger numbers had climbed above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, Lyft spoke of economic headwinds and revealed their passenger numbers were still below pre-pandemic levels.
That explains why Lyft stock is down -75% year to date while Uber is only down -35%.
And at a share price of $27 dollars Uber now has a market cap of 53 billion. With 4.9 billion of cash and 10 billion of debt the enterprise value is roughly 58 billion.
In context, the company made 29 billion dollars in revenue over the last 12 months. But it’s still not profitable, losing -8.8 billion over the last 12 months.
However, that loss includes 1.6 billion dollars of stock based compensation and 6.3 billion of losses from Uber’s equity investments. These include its investments in Grab and Chinese ride sharing app Didi Global.
Account for those items and the company made an adjusted ebitda profit of 1.1 billion over the last 12 months and it’s been free cash flow positive for the last 2 quarters.
That means the company is now valued at 2 times revenue or 52 times adjusted ebitda.
That’s expensive but Uber is still growing, revenue was up 72%, and the company has done well to expand its business through Uber Eats, Freight and advertising.
It costs almost nothing to add drivers to Uber’s fleet and every trip adds incremental revenue for Uber at little cost.
Although Uber isn’t immune to a weakening economy, mass layoffs do expand the pool of potential drivers.
Crucially, Uber is making real progress to profitability and taking market share from rivals.
Management thinks it can hit 5 billion in ebitda by 2024. An 18 times multiple on that figure gets the enterprise value to 90 billion dollars. That’s about 55% upside in the stock.
There’s also optionality from Uber’s investments particularly in Didi Global, if or when China fully opens up.
After years of losses it's easy to be pessimistic about Uber stock but there’s a real chance of growth here which is why I rate the stock a cautious buy.
But these are my personal opinions, not financial advice. And I do have a long position in Uber stock.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Should you buy Uber stock?
00:02 Uber reported strong results last week
00:04 and said that passenger numbers
00:06 had climbed above pre-pandemic levels.
00:08 Meanwhile, Lyft spoke of economic headwinds
00:11 and revealed their passenger numbers
00:13 were still below pre-pandemic levels.
00:16 That explains why Lyft's stock is down 75% year to date
00:20 while Uber is only down 35%.
00:23 And at a share price of $27,
00:25 Uber now has a market cap of 53 billion.
00:28 With 4.9 billion of cash and 10 billion of debt,
00:31 the enterprise value is roughly 58 billion.
00:33 In context, the company made $29 billion in revenue
00:37 over the last 12 months,
00:38 but it's still not profitable,
00:40 losing 8.8 billion over the last 12 months.
00:44 However, that loss includes $1.6 billion
00:47 of stock-based compensation
00:48 and 6.3 billion of losses from Uber's equity investments.
00:53 These include its investments in Grab
00:55 and Chinese ride-sharing app, Diddy Global.
00:58 Account for those items
00:59 and the company made an adjusted EBITDA profit
01:02 of 1.1 billion over the last 12 months.
01:04 And it's been free cash flow positive
01:06 for the last two quarters.
01:08 That means the company is now valued at two times revenue
01:11 or 52 times adjusted EBITDA.
01:14 That's expensive, but Uber is still growing.
01:16 Revenue is up 72% year over year,
01:19 and the company has done well to expand its business
01:22 through Uber Eats, Freight, and now advertising.
01:25 It costs almost nothing to add drivers to Uber's fleet,
01:28 and every trip adds incremental revenue
01:30 to Uber at little cost.
01:32 Although Uber isn't immune to a weakening economy,
01:34 mass layoffs do expand the pool of potential drivers.
01:38 Crucially, Uber is making real progress to profitability
01:41 and taking market share off rivals.
01:44 Management thinks it can hit 5 billion in EBITDA by 2024.
01:48 An 18 times multiple on that figure
01:50 gets the enterprise value to $90 billion.
01:53 That's about 55% upside to the stock.
01:56 There's also optionality from Uber's investments,
01:59 particularly in Diddy Global,
02:00 if or when China fully opens up.
02:03 After years of losses,
02:04 it's easy to be pessimistic about Uber,
02:06 but there's a real chance of growth here,
02:08 which is why I rate the stock a cautious buy.
02:11 But these are my own personal opinions,
02:12 not financial advice, and I do have a long position in Uber.
02:16 For more detailed analysis, visit our website.