Azerbaijan takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh: Victory of ‘authoritarian power over struggling democracy’
Over the course of two weeks, starting on September 19, some 100,000 Armenians fled the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in an exodus prompted by Azerbaijan’s invasion of the contested region, which had been governed by ethnic Armenians for some three decades. In Perspective, we spoke to Richard Giragosian, the founding director of the Regional Studies Center – an independent think-tank in Yerevan – to discuss Azerbaijan’s recent takeover. The invasion represented a military victory of “authoritarian power over struggling democracy”, Giragosian said, adding that the international community could have contributed more to help Armenia fend off Azerbaijani forces.
Produced by Carolina Sa
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Produced by Carolina Sa
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NewsTranscript
00:00 It is time now for perspective.
00:02 Over the course of two weeks starting on the 19th of September,
00:05 some 100,000 Armenians fled the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh
00:09 in an exodus prompted by Azerbaijan's invasion of the contested region,
00:13 which had been governed by ethnic Armenians for some three decades.
00:17 To discuss the fallout of that takeover,
00:19 I'm joined on set now by Richard Giragosian,
00:21 who's the founding director of the Regional Studies Centre,
00:24 an independent think tank based in Yerevan.
00:26 Thank you so much for coming on to France 24 today to speak to us.
00:29 Thank you.
00:30 Now, what happened in September,
00:32 it was a stark reminder, wasn't it, of just how volatile this conflict is?
00:37 Yes, but it was also a demonstration that was neither a surprise
00:41 nor particularly new.
00:42 A demonstration of Azerbaijan's intent to escalate the situation on the ground.
00:48 What we see, however, is a very painful
00:52 and rather distressing validation of the use of force by Azerbaijan.
00:58 And there is a dangerous precedent even beyond the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.
01:03 And that is, this was very much a military victory of authoritarian power
01:09 over struggling democracy.
01:12 So you say this was a show that military force works.
01:16 Do you feel that Armenia was abandoned by the international community?
01:20 Well, to a degree, yes.
01:22 But I would also argue, realistically,
01:25 given Russia's egregious invasion of Ukraine,
01:29 there was a justifiable distraction.
01:33 Nevertheless, I do think much of the West
01:35 and the international community should have done more
01:38 in terms of simply deterring Azerbaijan from its reliance on the use of force.
01:44 However, we do see both the European Union
01:48 and individual member states like France
01:51 actually deploying monitors to Armenia,
01:55 committing themselves to the defence of Armenian sovereignty.
01:59 So I do think more needs to be done in general,
02:01 but we have to give credit to France and the EU
02:05 for engaging in support of Armenia.
02:08 And what further concrete actions then would you support with that aim?
02:14 Well, some of my policy recommendations would include
02:18 the beginning of drafting a package of sanctions against Azerbaijan.
02:23 Azerbaijan, in many ways, is a Shakespearean autocracy,
02:27 father-to-son power for over a quarter of a century.
02:32 So a sanctions package targeting the corruption and oligarchs within Azerbaijan
02:38 would be a demonstration to deter from military force.
02:44 Because I say this as Azerbaijan only continues to pressure Armenia.
02:50 Azerbaijani armed forces, military troops,
02:53 to this day remain within Armenian territory.
02:57 This is both egregious and unacceptable.
03:00 Beyond sanctions, we do see a very irresponsible gas deal
03:05 between the European Union and Azerbaijan,
03:08 which is a swap agreement between Russia and Azerbaijan.
03:14 What we see here is a gas agreement that is little more
03:17 than the re-export of Russian gas through Azerbaijan.
03:22 So I do think these are important policy steps to deter Azerbaijan
03:27 and to reverse the precedent of a victory of force over diplomacy.
03:33 And you'll suggest a reversal of that gas deal.
03:35 Do you think there's any hope of the EU adopting that measure
03:40 at some point in the medium or long term?
03:42 I do from a technical point of view,
03:44 in that the percentage of gas for the European Union is marginal at best.
03:51 The amount of gas going from Russia through Azerbaijan to the EU
03:56 is approximately 7% of European demand.
04:00 So I do think it sends a wrong signal at too high of a price.
04:05 Basically providing legitimacy to a corrupt authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan,
04:11 which is not worth the small amount of gas.
04:15 Now, almost all ethnic Armenians did flee Nagorno-Karabakh
04:19 to Armenia in late September, seven weeks on from that lightning offensive.
04:24 What is life like for those refugees now living in Armenia?
04:28 Well, I would categorise it as a rather distressing period of climate change.
04:35 And what I mean is a new environment created by Azerbaijan of uncertainty, of insecurity.
04:42 The Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have lost their ancestral homeland
04:47 and they are in a state of limbo, even in Armenia proper.
04:52 They're not full citizens of Armenia, despite having Armenian passports.
04:56 Many are looking to leave Armenia.
05:00 And it's also because their identity is quite distinct
05:04 and separate from Armenia proper.
05:06 It's also a challenge for the Armenian government
05:09 to deal with a humanitarian catastrophe, if you will,
05:13 especially as the threat from Azerbaijan only continues.
05:17 So you call this a humanitarian catastrophe.
05:19 Was Yerevan at all prepared for this eventuality before September?
05:24 Well, fortunately to a degree, yes, in terms of Armenia's capacity
05:29 based on earlier integration of Armenians from Syria years ago
05:35 and an influx from Russia of Armenians,
05:38 but also Russians fleeing Russia because of Putin's war against Ukraine.
05:44 This gave the Armenian government some capacity to manage.
05:48 But I do think the needs are overwhelming.
05:52 For the over 100,000 Armenians, they have been uprooted and dispossessed.
05:59 They fled their homes with little more than they could carry in their vehicles.
06:04 And you said that many of those who fled Nagorno-Karabakh,
06:07 who are currently in Armenia, are seeking refuge ultimately outside of Armenia.
06:12 Why is that? Could you give us some insight into the identity of those people
06:17 who have fled into Armenia but who may now be looking to settle elsewhere?
06:20 That's a very good question, because what we see is
06:24 many of the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have never lived in Armenia proper.
06:29 Their identity, their own linguistic dialect, if you will,
06:34 their own position is from Nagorno-Karabakh itself,
06:39 a mountainous, very separate region.
06:44 For Armenia, just like I moved from the United States to Armenia over 15 years ago,
06:51 they're as much of a foreigner as I was when I first moved.
06:57 So it is somewhat natural that many of these Armenians are looking to go to Russia,
07:02 but also to the European Union, and not necessarily stay in Armenia.
07:06 The only thing they share in Armenia is religion and language.
07:10 Culture and identity is quite different.
07:12 Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you there.
07:14 Last week Azerbaijan paraded its army through Nagorno-Karabakh.
07:18 How were images of that parade received in Armenia?
07:23 Well, in many ways Armenia and the population are in a state of shock.
07:28 It's numb to the constant and consistent threat
07:33 of repeated and renewed hostilities from Azerbaijan.
07:37 What we see as well, perception is as important as reality.
07:41 And the Azerbaijani bluff and bluster of this military demonstration of might,
07:48 backed by both Turkey and Israel by the way,
07:51 is also demonstrating that Azerbaijan continues to be the only threat
07:57 to regional security and stability.
07:59 And do you think there is a credible risk of Azerbaijan
08:03 launching yet another attack on Armenians on Armenia?
08:08 Because your question pertains to the risk of attack, I would say definitely yes.
08:13 Rather than the risk of renewed war,
08:15 there is a credible and present danger of a limited,
08:21 localised series of military campaigns by Azerbaijan
08:26 for domestic political purposes.
08:28 The Azerbaijani government needs a conflict,
08:32 given its lack of legitimacy,
08:34 and we do expect more local attacks to continue against southern Armenia.
08:40 I'd like to talk for a moment about the United Nations.
08:43 A UN mission arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh on the 1st of October
08:46 to assess the humanitarian situation on the ground.
08:49 It was widely criticised for arriving too late,
08:52 essentially once all the ethnic Armenians had left Nagorno-Karabakh.
08:56 How did you feel about that delayed visit?
08:58 Well, even as a moderate analyst myself, I was embarrassed and disgusted,
09:03 simply because the arrival of the UN mission was not only decades late,
09:09 decades as the first and only time the UN engaged
09:15 with the population of Nagorno-Karabakh,
09:17 but it was also arriving only after the forced expulsion of the Armenian population.
09:24 My second frustration was the composition of this UN mission.
09:28 It was dominated by local Azerbaijani staff and UN officials in Azerbaijan,
09:35 rather than a joint mission from UN personnel in either New York, Geneva,
09:41 or from Armenia itself.
09:43 Richard Geregosian, I'm afraid we're going to have to leave it there.
09:45 Richard Geregosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Centre,
09:49 which is an independent think tank in Yerevan.
09:51 Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24 today.
09:53 Thank you.