This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 15/11/2023.
Autumn 2023 so far has been very mild, especially in the south. It’s also been very wet in places, especially towards the south and east. However, a change in wind direction as autumn comes to an end could bring about less wet and less mild weather. Bringing you this 10 Day Trend is Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
Autumn 2023 so far has been very mild, especially in the south. It’s also been very wet in places, especially towards the south and east. However, a change in wind direction as autumn comes to an end could bring about less wet and less mild weather. Bringing you this 10 Day Trend is Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend in which I'll try and cover the rest
00:05 of meteorological autumn.
00:06 Autumn so far has been very mild, especially in the south, and in some places very, very
00:12 wet.
00:14 But there are signs that both those factors will change a little during next week.
00:19 Here's how the jet stream looks into next week and it's a different shape and a different
00:26 position compared with what we're currently seeing.
00:30 Next week there's this signal for the jet stream to be coming in, still affecting the
00:33 UK, still bringing areas of low pressure, but coming in from the north-west.
00:38 If we rewind the clock to the current time, the time of recording, Wednesday the 15th
00:43 of November, and you can see the jet stream is much flatter.
00:46 It's coming in from the Atlantic, it is continuing to bring us areas of low pressure, just as
00:51 it has done over the last few weeks.
00:52 That's why the weather has been so stormy and the jet stream sitting across southern
00:57 parts of the UK means that these low pressure systems continue, for the time being, to be
01:01 coming in and affecting mainly southern parts of the UK.
01:05 And that's particularly the case at the start of Thursday.
01:07 We begin the day with some heavy rain across South Wales, south and south-west England,
01:12 a strong wind as well, 50 or 60 mph wind gusts around exposed coasts of Cornwall, for example,
01:18 and then other English Channel coasts later.
01:20 And that rain could cause some disruption first thing, of course, it's coming on top
01:24 of saturated ground, 30 or 40 mm in places, particularly higher parts of south-west England,
01:30 and so a few issues perhaps.
01:32 A tricky rush hour Thursday morning.
01:34 The rain does ease a little later in the day, but it's going to stay damp for much of Thursday
01:39 across southern areas.
01:40 Now further north for North Wales, the Midlands, East Anglia, northwards it's drier, still
01:45 a few showers, especially across eastern parts of the UK, and then later on into the afternoon
01:50 for Northern Ireland, into parts of Scotland as well, those showers following in, another
01:54 band of rain as well as those showers feeding in from the west.
01:58 But overnight the showers do ease away.
02:01 We'll see clear spells developing and temperatures falling away as a result, so a touch of frost
02:06 in places, low single figures, certainly a cold start to Friday, but a bright start and
02:11 by the afternoon plenty of sunshine up and down the country.
02:16 Not many showers around by this stage, many places will enjoy a crisp, bright autumn day.
02:22 8 to 9 Celsius in the north, 11 and 12 further south and south-west, but here the rain soon
02:29 returns and that is associated with a warm front which is coming in from the south-west.
02:36 Warm front typically means warmer weather and this one is no exception.
02:41 We're going to see this plume of mild air come up from the south-west for the start
02:46 of Saturday, but we keep the colder conditions at first across parts of central and eastern
02:52 Scotland, a touch of frost in the north-east of Scotland and some snowflakes over the hills
02:57 and mountains as well as the rain bumps into that cold air.
03:00 But it's much milder as we start off Saturday further south and south-west.
03:05 However by mid-morning, well it's looking like a wet and windy picture across many parts
03:11 of the country.
03:12 Not very pleasant at all if you're heading out on Saturday morning.
03:16 Outbreaks of rain for most of the UK, a lot of cloud cover and a strong wind with 50 mph
03:22 wind gusts possible around southern coasts.
03:24 The rain heaviest in the south once again and that rain really building up over the
03:28 next few days in southern parts.
03:31 But it does tend to ease off later in the day so a chance of some drier interludes by
03:36 the afternoon, albeit with further showers pushing into Northern Ireland and Scotland
03:41 as the day goes on.
03:43 Ten Celsius in the north, 15 perhaps 16 Celsius in the south because of that warmer south-westerly
03:49 breeze.
03:51 And we've got that breeze in place for the start of Sunday so it's generally a frost
03:54 free start.
03:55 In places we'll see double figures on Sunday morning.
03:58 Some brightness towards the south-east and the north-east as well but further cloud and
04:03 showery rain pushes in from the west through the day.
04:05 I don't think you'll be far from a rain cloud on Sunday.
04:09 Some of that rain will be heavy at times as well and it will be blustery with the strongest
04:13 winds once again around southern coasts.
04:15 Once again 50 mph wind gusts possible.
04:19 Lighter winds and less rain I think towards the north.
04:23 Northern Scotland, north-east England for example seeing some brighter and more settled
04:27 weather at times.
04:28 And that's really the story through the next five days.
04:31 This shows the total amount of rain between Thursday and Monday and although this rain
04:38 scale was developed when we had Storm Babette with really exceptional rain amounts, we're
04:43 not seeing those rain amounts over the next five days.
04:46 This just gives you an idea that we are seeing more wet weather in those places where the
04:50 ground is particularly saturated.
04:52 Hillier parts of Wales and the south and south-west with more than 50 mm in places.
04:57 Ordinarily wouldn't really be too bad but given that's coming on top of saturated ground
05:04 could cause a few issues heading into the weekend.
05:06 The main rainy spells of course being Thursday and Saturday morning with that drier spell
05:12 on Friday.
05:14 Now all that means that as the rain comes in, as the south-westerly winds come in, it
05:20 is turning milder as well.
05:21 As I mentioned 15 Celsius in places like Plymouth on Saturday.
05:25 That's the warmest day, a temperature trend downwards then as we go into next week and
05:30 a similar trend even if the absolute values aren't as high for Aberdeen.
05:35 Why the change?
05:36 Well for the next few days at least we're going to see low pressure sitting to the west
05:41 and the jet stream bringing warmth from the south-west and an awful lot of rainfall as
05:47 well.
05:48 But if we switch ahead to Monday and the jet stream changes shape, just as I mentioned
05:54 at the beginning, a bit more of a wriggly jet stream and it's coming in across the UK
06:00 from the north-west with low pressure now to the east and higher pressure building to
06:05 the west.
06:06 And that kind of weather pattern for next Monday is that that's the most likely weather
06:11 pattern as we begin next week.
06:13 And it's really the theme through next week with a chance of higher pressure building
06:18 towards the west and south-west and that means less wet across southern and south-western
06:23 parts of the UK with quite a number of showers coming in on a brisk north-west of the airflow
06:29 for Monday and Tuesday.
06:31 And so it's generally Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West England, North Wales where we'll
06:35 see the bulk of those showers.
06:37 There will still be weather fronts feeding in.
06:39 For example, this is the most likely weather pattern for the middle of next week.
06:42 But low pressure will track further north than we've seen recently and so those weather
06:47 fronts will predominantly affect northern and north-western parts of the UK.
06:52 So it will be wettest and windiest across northern and western Scotland, drier than
06:57 it has been towards the south with high pressure closer by.
07:01 And then as we skip forward to next Friday and again we've got this high pressure building
07:07 to the west, low pressure signalled over Scandinavia.
07:10 This signal is well established in the main computer models.
07:13 There are some uncertainties about the extent to which high pressure will build to the west
07:18 and the exact position of low pressure over Scandinavia and of course that will make a
07:21 difference in terms of exactly how strong the winds are, exactly where they'll be coming
07:25 from, whether they'll be coming straight from the north or whether they'll be coming from
07:28 the north-west and also the distribution of rain and showers.
07:33 But with this general signal well established what's likely to happen is that we're going
07:38 to see drier conditions towards the south and south-west.
07:43 There will still be some rain or showers but it will be less wet than it has been.
07:47 The bulk of the blustery showers will affect northern and north-western parts of the UK
07:51 and with the winds coming from the north or north-west it will turn colder with a return
07:56 to frost and fog patches by night and also some of those showers will turn to snow over
08:02 northern hills and mountains but not really at lower levels.
08:06 So something a bit colder into next week and that pattern as I mentioned is well established.
08:12 This is the European model run, not just run once but run 100 times and this is the outcome,
08:18 a strong signal for low pressure over Scandinavia, higher pressure to the west or south-west
08:22 of the UK and this north-west to the airflow.
08:24 This is the weekly mean anomaly.
08:26 So this is the pattern throughout next week, Monday to Monday.
08:30 If we skip forward another week and look at the same 100 computer model run and what it's
08:36 suggesting for the start of December, well not much really.
08:41 This just gives you the idea that it's a very weak signal for the start of December, not
08:46 a strong signal like we've got for next week and that would suggest that next week's weather
08:50 pattern could be short-lived and we return to something closer to what we've had so much
08:56 of recently which is milder but also wetter weather.
09:01 One thing that suggests that we'll return to that is the global weather patterns across
09:07 different oceans that we've got in place at the moment.
09:10 We've got El Niño of course, a good explainer on El Niño on the Met Office YouTube channel.
09:15 This oscillation in sea surface temperatures and pressure patterns in the Pacific, yes,
09:21 it's the Indian Ocean I'm going to go on to next.
09:24 But that at the moment, the El Niño phase, typically leads to wetter and milder weather
09:29 at this time of year.
09:30 We've also got a similar oscillation in the Indian Ocean and that's currently in a positive
09:35 phase and that also correlates with wetter and milder weather in the UK at this time
09:41 of year.
09:42 So in the absence of a strong computer model signal, these two would suggest we're more
09:48 likely to get wetter and milder weather as we begin the meteorological winter but for
09:52 the rest of autumn at least a little bit less wet and a little bit colder than it has been.
09:58 [BLANK_AUDIO]