Is truce and hostage deal a possible 'prelude' to a 'political exit' to the Israel-Hamas war?
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00:00 talk a bit more about this deal. I'm very pleased to be joined now by Joseph Bahout.
00:04 He's the director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy at the American University
00:10 of Beirut. Welcome to the programme, sir. Thanks for joining us.
00:13 Good morning. Good afternoon, but I don't hear you well.
00:19 I hope you can hear me. Let me ask you this first question. How significant do you think
00:23 this deal is today?
00:26 I think it is quite significant. Of course, we shouldn't give it too much importance,
00:30 but it's very significant given, first of all, the length of the battles so far in Gaza.
00:36 It's the first serious lull, if it comes into effect, since almost 50 days. So it's important
00:44 for the people of Gaza. It's the first respite probably that they are having, the first breathing
00:50 moment or space. Second, it shows also a little bit the change of, let's say, the political
00:56 equation. Israel is coming to the idea maybe that it should start to find a political exit
01:02 to this war, and this is maybe a prelude to that. Also, it shows that certain parties
01:08 like the US, Qatar and other Arab parties are able to effectively and efficiently mediate
01:14 in this conflict. Now, the questions that remain pending is, first of all, if this truce
01:20 will be respected for five days. The second one is how much the Israeli war plan will
01:28 go on after that. And we heard that yesterday, plans regarding the southern part of the Gaza
01:34 Strip. And third, if the other fronts, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and others, will remain calm or
01:41 not during this short truce. So it's an important step, of course. It's a small turn in the
01:47 conflict, but it's definitely not the end of the conflict.
01:50 Well, let's talk in a bit more detail then about some of those issues you just raised.
01:56 First of all, do you think it is likely that the truce will be extended beyond the initial
02:02 four days?
02:04 I am very sceptical. I'm very doubtful for many reasons. First, because the exchange
02:09 of prisoners and hostages is partial. It's not complete. So Israel will probably feel
02:17 that it has to keep the pressure on Hamas in order to negotiate the second batch of
02:22 hostages. Second, because the war aims of Israel are very far today of having been met.
02:29 I think that so far it's almost, if you take the balance sheet, it's almost a disaster
02:36 for Israel. I mean, besides having bulldozed Gaza, expelled maybe half a million or a million
02:43 of Palestinians from there, the political aims and the war aims are not achieved at
02:49 all. They haven't eliminated serious Hamas figures. They have not yet seized any convincing,
02:56 let's say, asset of Hamas. And we don't know anything about the post-war plans. So for
03:02 all these reasons, I think that this is a temporary truce. Maybe it's a test of goodwill
03:08 and the confidence building measure for something to come. But I think that if ever the truce
03:15 holds for five days, it's going to be followed very quickly by a resumption of the conflict.
03:22 How significant do you think Qatar's role has been in the last couple of days?
03:28 It's more than significant. It's I think pivotal and I think central. You know that Hamas's
03:36 leadership is mainly based in Qatar, and those who are not based in Qatar are in constant
03:42 touch with Qatar, of course. Qatar is the main founder, I would say, of the Gaza Strip
03:47 for a very long time. And Qatar is also, and this is why it's able to play this role, has
03:55 a good relation, an ongoing relation with Israel, of course. There is an Israeli office
04:01 in Gaza, in Qatar. And Qatar is also in very good terms with the US. Also, Qatar lately
04:09 has mended fences with Saudi Arabia. So it gives Qatar a very central role in this issue
04:15 and probably in the issues to come. I think that Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will be
04:20 very central in any post-war political process to come.
04:25 Just a final question. You're in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. Do you think there's any
04:30 indication today that the skirmishes we've been seeing on the Israeli-Lebanese border
04:35 will cease with this truce deal?
04:38 Yeah, I was telling you this in the first part of my answer. We have to see if the other
04:43 fronts will hold. I don't know yet, but what I can decipher as signals is maybe a bit worrying.
04:50 This morning and yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister was in Beirut. This morning, there
04:55 was a Hamas high-level delegation in Beirut meeting with Hezbollah's leadership, with
05:01 Hassan Nasrallah himself. And yesterday, we had a threshold that is quite worrying of
05:07 escalation in the south with the targeting by Israeli forces of a civilian journalist
05:14 crew of your colleagues. So all these signs could let us think or lead us to think that
05:19 things are not over or on the contrary, if something more global than only Gaza is being
05:26 brewed and negotiated. I think it's still early to tell, but the next 24 hours on that
05:32 front, on that level, I think will be a crucial part of the answer to your question.
05:37 Joseph Bahout from the American University of Beirut. Thank you very much indeed, sir.
05:42 Thank you. My pleasure.