A panel of industry experts on where we think the future of the travel industry is going.
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TravelTranscript
00:00 [MUSIC]
00:09 And continue to update that as different countries go through this at different stages.
00:14 I've been thinking of this breaking news coverage as kind,
00:17 I think the crisis management portion is almost over.
00:22 >> Yeah.
00:23 >> And we are settling into quarantine now, truly.
00:25 I know that in the US specifically, all non-essential workers have been asked
00:30 to stay home through the end of April.
00:32 So we are treating April as quarantine coverage month.
00:35 That means we are offering more, slightly more inspiration than service.
00:39 And we are doing a few series that help you recreate destinations at home.
00:44 One is called Our Happy Place.
00:47 So we've had some of our top writers tell these beautiful little love stories
00:51 about their favorite places that they try to revisit in their minds right now.
00:55 Ryan Knighton told us about a place in British Columbia.
00:59 Kelly Dawson talked about gardens in London.
01:02 Allison P. Davis told us about Big Sur.
01:06 And they're all these beautiful little narratives, right?
01:09 It's not, everything has heart to it.
01:12 We want to be the heart.
01:13 We want to let you know that we feel what you feel.
01:17 >> It's not really the listicle time, right?
01:20 >> No, imagine top ten beaches.
01:23 >> Yeah, exactly.
01:25 >> But another one I'm excited to launch is called A Day in TK City,
01:31 Paris, London, New York, but recreated at home.
01:36 So we are creating an itinerary.
01:38 It's a little bit of a riff on the 36 hours concept in the New York Times.
01:42 But we are going from breakfast to bedtime.
01:45 And we are telling you how to make it feel like you are in Paris for a day.
01:49 So everything from recipes you can replicate at home, breakfast, lunch,
01:53 and dinner, to soundtracks for different times of the day, movies to watch,
01:58 books to read, a local blog or a newspaper that you feel like you can sit down with,
02:02 with your croissant in the morning.
02:04 So we are leaning more into destinations now.
02:08 But again, it's a little bit of armchair travel.
02:10 >> Well, and it's all, I mean, I feel like it's day to day too,
02:13 still a little bit, right?
02:14 I mean, you have this plan now, but it's, yeah.
02:17 >> We may scrap it tomorrow.
02:18 >> Yeah. >> Right?
02:19 Who knows?
02:20 We're trying to read the trends, read the news and be flexible.
02:25 >> Yeah. >> And if I'm not rambling too much, Annie,
02:29 I think the way we're thinking about coverage going through the next few months,
02:33 it's, the doors will slowly open and our universe will get bigger and bigger, right?
02:39 So as we are finally allowed to come out of our homes,
02:43 I think we'll start rediscovering our own towns.
02:47 I'm calling it the Thoreau Guide to Travel, or
02:50 it's the idea of traveler in your hometown, right?
02:54 So we're gonna try to find out what's still open, what's not.
02:57 So we're gonna create a number of little staycation packages probably in May.
03:01 We also think domestic travel will rebound sooner.
03:05 So getting into the summer, we'll start covering more road trips, hikes,
03:10 state parks, we know that people will want to get outside.
03:14 But I think they'll also still be very conscious of
03:17 all the social distancing we've had to do.
03:19 I do wonder how much this will change our culture.
03:22 So- >> That's the million dollar question,
03:24 but I actually, I mean, everything you're saying, I think, is exactly what Clayton,
03:29 I think a lot of us have been reading Clayton, what you've been saying about
03:32 the travel recovery happening sooner than we expect,
03:37 which would of course go into your coverage strategy, Laura.
03:40 But it's very encouraging.
03:41 You've also laid out a strategy that is more than just hope.
03:44 So can you talk to us a little bit about that timeline and
03:47 how you're coming to these conclusions?
03:49 >> Sure, first of all, hi, and I've been kind of buoyed by these conversations,
03:54 cuz it does seem like hope's at the root of it.
03:56 A lot of the travel industry coming together.
03:58 But yeah, by the way, Laura, I love the idea of Thoreau and the local community.
04:02 And that actually follows what we see in the data, which I'll come back to.
04:06 Yeah, we're calling probably for
04:08 a recovery a little sooner than others based on a few things.
04:11 One, we've looked at our data from past crises to include Zika most recently,
04:16 swine flu, SARS.
04:17 We looked at how people rebound from terrorism attacks.
04:19 And we see a couple things.
04:21 One, we have a sentiment monitor in the marketplace right now with US travel.
04:25 It's asking people whether they're going to travel or not.
04:29 And still a full 41% say they're canceling their plans for the year.
04:33 But when we track that back against behaviors of past crisis,
04:36 we find out that as we emerge from this phase of fear,
04:39 which you started to allude to, Laura, people begin to rebook.
04:43 And they rebook at a pretty high rate.
04:46 So we know that we can't really measure sentiment today.
04:50 And that's why this monitor we're doing is going to be
04:53 pulsed out over a number of weeks.
04:56 But in the past situations, we've found people come back to travel very quickly.
05:00 There are a couple things that are different about, of course, COVID-19.
05:03 One, it's a much larger at scale pandemic than anything we've seen before.
05:08 Two, it is hitting the world at a different pace.
05:12 So I think it has the ability to influence travel recovery in different ways
05:16 in different parts of the world.
05:17 But I do think at its core is this idea of a massive pent up demand.
05:22 That we in the travel industry know people want to travel.
05:25 And that's not just on the leisure side, but on the corporate and group side too.
05:29 People, I've used the term home sentencing.
05:32 People want to get back out again, and they want to travel.
05:35 And we see that already in the numbers.
05:37 Now we have a subset of our traveler database we call resilient travelers.
05:41 Well, 16% of people who say they travel right now.
05:44 So there are early influencers, there are people over time who will begin to come
05:48 back to travel.
05:48 And there are people today who say they won't travel,
05:50 who we know will rebook and travel very shortly.
05:55 You also asked about recovery trends.
05:56 So yes, looking at global travel, we expect domestic travel to be first.
06:02 And we expect leisure travel to lead out corporate travel.
06:06 We do expect that community based travel be important.
06:09 So not only populating restaurants, hotels, and
06:12 attractions inside a community by the people that live there.
06:15 But this sort of this concentric circle move out to regional destinations,
06:19 long haul destinations, eventually international trips.
06:23 So those things are at play and we would expect the progression to happen that way.
06:27 But I do believe that, and we're looking at it post crisis peak infections,
06:32 plus 30, plus 45, plus 90 days.
06:35 We expect to see those recoveries happen fairly quickly and for
06:38 demand to be generated very quickly.
06:41 >> And you had said basically, are you still thinking like end of Q2,
06:44 end of June?
06:45 >> It's hard to know, but there's some really hopeful signs.
06:48 So we track a number of things, including we do a lot of social listening.
06:52 Our paid search team is looking at paid search terms and
06:55 what's being searched upon.
06:56 So here's a hopeful note for everybody.
06:59 We're seeing paid search key phrases at the same levels this week as they were in
07:04 2019 for summer travel.
07:05 We see search terms like luxury travel spiking up.
07:11 We know that afar sees metrics along its content that's showing people are
07:15 interested in travel still today.
07:17 And what we think is there's this bifurcated recovery.
07:19 So there are people who are going to have a lot of time right now,
07:23 they're dreaming about traveling again.
07:25 They're home sentence, so
07:26 they want to think about the way in which they can get out and travel.
07:29 And those people will probably take some time to book and
07:32 they'll look at out months for long haul or more dream type destinations.
07:36 But we also know the other part of this recovery is people who will rebook
07:40 on very short booking windows.
07:42 And who will as they emerge from sort of this fear, will want to take short trips,
07:47 will want to get out and sort of dip their toe into travel.
07:50 And that means travel by car predominantly before air.
07:53 It means staying probably in situations where you're induced through a value or
07:58 some kind of special offer.
08:00 Those things tend to follow in every crisis, those sort of comeback metrics.
08:05 >> Nice, thank you so much and thank you for the evidenced words of hope.
08:11 That's good.
08:12 >> [LAUGH] >> And I've heard,
08:14 I think the buzzwords at least for me will be trust, safety and flexibility.
08:19 And I kind of wanted to throw that to everyone, but
08:20 I guess I'll start with maybe Paul.
08:23 I mean, do you agree with those buzzwords?
08:24 Do you think there's other buzzwords are going to be really important to travelers?
08:28 I mean, you run an enormous travel agency.
08:30 If I can use that $1.4 billion number, I mean, that's a huge travel agency.
08:35 So what do you think?
08:37 >> Yeah, it's funny, Annie, because I was thinking about this.
08:42 I left my law practice almost 36 years ago now to start this business.
08:46 It was a little travel agency my father had that was struggling.
08:50 And we are doing less business now with, I would say,
08:56 January was the biggest month we ever had in the history of the company.
08:59 We're growing 20% year over year.
09:01 And we're doing less business now than when I took over my father's little
09:05 travel company that was doing about $1 million a year in travel in 1984.
09:11 So that is just shocking and stunning on so many levels.
09:16 >> The full circle that you don't want, right?
09:18 >> I'm sorry?
09:19 >> The full circle that you don't want.
09:21 >> Exactly.
09:22 Well, I mean, but to follow up what Laura and Clayton said, look,
09:26 we are social animals, human beings, and what is happening now is so anathema.
09:33 It's just you can't keep people isolated for that long.
09:39 And I think that what's happening, what's gonna happen is safety,
09:46 health, and flexibility are the key words that are gonna help to get people
09:51 to start opening up.
09:52 And I think maybe Clayton mentioned this, but
09:55 the first people that are gonna go are the intrepid travelers,
10:00 or in the young people, like my kids, who've been cooped up.
10:03 I mean, they've already all had the virus, frankly, and they were recovered, and
10:07 they're fine, and they were relatively asymptomatic.
10:11 They were in New York City.
10:12 And all their friends, they've got cabin fever.
10:16 So I think there's going to be a huge surge in demand.
10:20 It's gonna lead on the leisure side of my business.
10:23 And then I think as people start to sort of venture out,
10:28 the corporate travelers will follow.
10:32 And I think at some point when health, safety, and trust, and
10:37 whatever, that may mean different things.
10:40 It may mean to get on an airplane, you need to show a certificate that you're
10:43 either negative or that you have antibodies in your system.
10:47 And the airlines are very smart, and they will figure it out.
10:50 And doing that in conjunction with incredible offers that they're gonna
10:54 offer, I mean, we've been through so many of these events.
10:59 And I think it's my fault, because I said way back when,
11:02 nothing could be worse than 9/11.
11:04 And of course, we had an office in the Trade Center.
11:06 And then of course, the global financial crisis happened, and I ate my words.
11:10 And then I said, well,
11:11 nothing could be worse than the global financial crisis.
11:13 And then here we are now.
11:16 And so this is clearly my fault that I keep saying those and
11:20 jinxing our industry.
11:21 >> Stop saying that.
11:22 >> Yeah, I'm gonna shut up now and let somebody else talk.
11:26 >> No, this is really the bottom.
11:28 This is really the worst.
11:29 I think that's- >> God willing.
11:32 >> But I mean, Lila, too, I mean, you run this really wonderful,
11:35 lovely boutique successful agency.
11:37 I mean, your clients have a lot of money, they travel a lot.
11:41 They're texting you now, right?
11:42 I mean, they wanna be traveling, they can't.
11:44 I mean, are you kind of feeling the same thing?
11:46 >> Yeah, I mean, I think trust, flexibility are gonna be huge.
11:52 For me right now, what's kind of top of mind for me is perception.
12:00 I think how consumers are perceiving the situation,
12:06 how they're perceiving when they can get back to work,
12:08 when they can get that revenue stream again, is gonna directly play into
12:14 when they feel like they can travel and
12:18 when they can feel like they can start planning travel.
12:20 So perception is one of those key words with me right now for sure.
12:26 And yeah, I mean, it's listening to clients and everybody's different.
12:30 Everybody's threshold for what they're comfortable with is different.
12:35 Their financial situations are really different.
12:38 So yeah, as a small agency owner working directly with people,
12:43 I've always listened.
12:45 I'm listening and I'm paying attention to their behavior.
12:49 Cuz I think their behavior is gonna tell me what the next steps are and
12:55 how things are gonna start opening up for people.
12:57 >> Yeah, and I think for someone like you too, I mean,
12:59 your clients look to you to be on the road, right?
13:02 And they're gonna look at you traveling and
13:04 especially cuz you're so close to them on the ground.
13:06 Martin, I wanted to ask you, it seems that destinations are really embracing
13:13 the stay at home directive and helping consumers plan for later.
13:16 You guys did this amazing video and campaign really, Dream Now, Travel Later.
13:22 How did you come up with that?
13:23 And what are other ways that you're ensuring that Switzerland is top of mind?
13:27 I actually had a question come in today that said,
13:30 images of a clean, perfect Switzerland are gonna be sure to resonate well with
13:33 travelers, so how will you handle the demand?
13:36 >> To be very honest, everyone was taken by surprise, so
13:42 there was obviously no chance to prepare for such an event.
13:46 As an organization, we really hit hard.
13:49 And we have just two phenomena happening at the same time.
13:52 We have to stay at home and basically manage all our offices and
13:56 the entire operation from home.
13:58 Plus, no one is basically doing what they usually do.
14:01 So it's like two things that are hitting us spontaneously.
14:04 And as you mentioned before, I think there are some very important keywords.
14:09 So it's important for us, there are two main tasks at this very moment as
14:14 a destination, as a country.
14:15 Number one is finding the tipping point when people are receptive, again, for
14:20 tourism messages, which is not necessarily the same thing when they're going to
14:23 travel, and the second task is to find the right tone at the right time.
14:28 Because obviously, we have stopped and
14:31 banned all marketing activities at this moment.
14:33 This would be ignorant and a loss of money.
14:35 And you have to now use the right tone, and we chose the tone of empathy.
14:41 And traveling in Switzerland is not possible at this moment, but
14:45 dreaming is, to be inspired for future vacation.
14:51 That's basically the root, the base of our campaign.
14:54 I would say a limited campaign has an expiry date.
15:00 The moment we are open for business again, this will be the end of this campaign.
15:04 And then we need to make sure that we have a smooth transition into the next
15:09 campaign, and that needs to be equally empathic.
15:11 Because we cannot basically just pull a lever and
15:15 everyone will be in the precise same mood as a couple of months ago.
15:20 I think there will be a substantial amount of visitors who are hurt and
15:26 hit hard at this event.
15:28 And only when you lift the physical bands,
15:33 I think it's going to take a while until they actually travel.
15:36 So it's very important that we find the right tone, basically.
15:39 That's the basis of our work at this moment.
15:43 >> Absolutely, and I mean, there are some glimmers of hope in Switzerland.
15:46 At least I saw that they are going to slowly start lifting restrictions April 26.
15:51 Is that right?
15:52 >> That's correct.
15:53 I assume we are a couple of weeks ahead.
15:56 We follow this wave from east to west.
16:00 Our office in China are open, up and running again.
16:04 So that's some rays of hope.
16:07 But it's like an early indicator system, and you can see precisely that phenomena.
16:12 Mobility is up, offices are open again.
16:15 They're lifting bits and pieces of the barriers of the borders.
16:20 But people are still a little bit resilient.
16:23 And it is very, very obvious that domestic tourism will come up first.
16:28 So I think the first winner of this crisis will be domestic tourism.
16:33 >> Yeah, absolutely.
16:34 So you're considering it as like the Swiss will come back first to see their
16:37 country again, and then slowly the rest of Europe, and
16:39 then from there the rest of the world?
16:41 >> Yeah, yes, exactly.
16:44 And you can also sense the intercultural differences, how people are different.
16:49 It's lovely to hear how optimistic you guys are.
16:52 It's great.
16:53 If I'm in a panel with people from East Asia, it's a little bit different tone.
16:58 They're a little bit more prudent and
17:01 reluctant to go back to business immediately.
17:05 They are a little bit more scared.
17:07 And so I think different parts of the world will handle this crisis and
17:12 the aftermath in a different manner.
17:14 >> Yeah, absolutely.
17:15 I think that's the one thing we keep understanding is that it's not going to be
17:18 a day to day light switch kind of situation.
17:21 Thank you so much for that.
17:23 Lindsay, I have loved for a long time, you have a mantra, believe in travel, right?
17:29 >> Yes, yes.
17:31 >> You have more than 700, is that right?
17:33 A lot of them- >> 100.
17:35 >> Independent hotels.
17:37 And when we were talking about believe in travel, when we were together at ILTM and
17:41 CAN, we were talking about it as a response to our kind of the over tourism, right?
17:46 That we still should believe in travel and
17:47 now it has a completely different meaning.
17:50 And hotels are such an integral part of the travel experience.
17:53 What are you doing?
17:54 What is your empathetic approach right now to these hotels and
17:58 the consumer and the advisor world?
18:00 >> Yeah, I think believing in travel right now is more important than ever.
18:05 Like you said, the tone of that message is completely pivoted,
18:08 to use Laura's word.
18:11 We have 750 hotels in about 85 countries,
18:14 50% of which are closed at the moment.
18:18 Whether by government mandate, low occupancy, or I mean, all of them are
18:22 concerned about the health and safety of their employees and their guests.
18:25 So it's a really challenging time for all of us in the industry.
18:30 So empathy is huge, and I've learned that in crisis and times like this,
18:35 you can never over communicate.
18:37 Community is becoming even more important,
18:40 providing them relevant content and information.
18:42 I mean, a lot of the things that we're doing outside of trying to offer relief
18:45 where we can is hosting town halls to give them information about what we're hearing.
18:51 Because the majority of them are independent, a lot of them family owned,
18:55 just having access to that information of what's happening in certain parts of
18:59 the world with the travel trade on the group sale side, that's really,
19:04 really important.
19:05 But even more important, it's doing things like this, is that sense of community.
19:09 They say a burden shared is a burden halved.
19:12 So the ability to bring our hotels together to talk,
19:15 to share about what's happening in their markets, in their hotels,
19:18 best practices has been incredibly important.
19:23 So we've got that customer segment, but
19:26 the travel trade as well as the end consumer are also our customers.
19:30 So keeping in touch with those segments is important.
19:35 The end consumer side of it, we actually just surveyed our loyalty members.
19:39 I prefer loyalty members.
19:41 And it's interesting, you can tell people have a little bit more time,
19:43 because I think we got 3,400 responses within an hour.
19:46 >> [LAUGH] >> Is that a lot?
19:50 But the sentiment is a lot more positive than we thought.
19:53 And again, it depends by segment and part of the world.
19:55 But I think some interesting things definitely align with what's been said.
20:00 I mean, leisure travel is gonna come back fastest.
20:02 People are anxious to visit their friends and
20:04 family that they've been cut off from.
20:06 As well as there are so many celebrations that have been canceled.
20:09 That's whether it's weddings or birthday parties or graduations.
20:13 And I think there's gonna be a quick response to do that.
20:17 And my favorite response, we literally got this.
20:19 So that was the number one response.
20:20 And the number two was to relax and/or party after the COVID is over.
20:25 So clearly on the leisure side, people are ready to celebrate.
20:28 And I agree that there's an independent demand.
20:32 But I also think an interesting statistic was,
20:35 one, 60% of our survey respondents definitely plan on traveling in 2020.
20:42 But the majority of them said that they probably wanna wait between four to six
20:45 months after travel restrictions have been launched to do that.
20:48 So I think it puts it in perspective in terms of the desire to travel.
20:53 But maybe some might wait a little bit longer before they book certain types of
20:56 travel.
20:57 But we're trying to be as empathetic and supportive.
21:00 The travel trade community is hugely important to us.
21:04 And I think that they're gonna be the front line in terms of being able to
21:08 communicate all the relevant information that the end traveler needs.
21:11 There's so much information right now that they're really the ones that can
21:15 distill that and I think help the traveler figure out where they should be traveling,
21:19 what's safest, what's the best values.
21:21 I mean, air travel, obviously, we can tell has been dramatically impacted.
21:25 So that piece of it's gonna be really interesting to understand even
21:29 where you can travel to in terms of air lift.
21:32 >> Yeah, and I said this last week, but I mean, planes are cleaner than ever and
21:36 they're not gonna go back to dirtier.
21:38 So that's also a plus, we have these pristine airplanes.
21:42 I did actually, it kind of goes into what you were saying on dates.
21:46 I mean, I had a lot of questions about specifically,
21:49 would you recommend people book trips in September?
21:53 Like we have a far sailings in November and we feel pretty good about that.
21:56 I mean, how do you guys feel about September?
21:58 Clayton, you feel good about it?
22:01 [LAUGH] >> Well, I would say to what Lindsay's
22:04 comments, again, in our surveys that we've been doing it through every crisis,
22:08 people do tell us it's gonna be a while before they travel, but
22:11 with time that changes.
22:13 So I actually do think that people will book, even though today they might say
22:16 it's four to six months, it's likely shorter than that.
22:19 The other thing I would say is in every recovery what happens is there's this
22:23 bifurcation of demand.
22:26 It either moves up market or it moves down market.
22:28 So the real concern for people who are trying to recover should be if you're in
22:34 the mid market, how do you react?
22:35 Because people will either trade up because rates will come down, or
22:40 they can't afford the rate in the middle and they have to move down.
22:43 And so that's an important part of the way you think about this.
22:46 And the people who typically will trade down will be the people who will travel
22:50 first.
22:50 Luxury will be fine, I'm gonna set that aside.
22:52 But in terms of immediate leisure, short term demand,
22:57 people will be looking for a deal.
22:58 The industry will respond by lowering rates, and
23:01 people will want to action on that.
23:03 Even today, you see the airlines continuing to show fares for future travel.
23:08 They've all relaxed their booking and cancellation policies,
23:11 because they want to drive demand today.
23:12 They want to try to collect whatever they can in terms of cash flow around those
23:15 bookings.
23:17 And they're signaling to the traveler that we will let you book and
23:20 change it later.
23:21 So if you feel like you're comfortable in September, to use your example, Annie,
23:25 go ahead and book it.
23:26 And if it comes to be August and you don't feel comfortable,
23:28 we'll let you change it for that.
23:30 >> Yeah.
23:31 >> And I think the way suppliers are responding should be a really good
23:34 indicator for us.
23:35 Airbnb today announced a number of measures that tells us they think demand
23:40 is gonna come back soon.
23:41 If you look at even what Marriott is saying, and they've been very hard hit,
23:45 they're starting to build back some timelines for
23:48 capacity that look at mid to late summer and fall.
23:52 So those things to me feel optimistic and could change.
23:57 But for now, I don't think you can trust the consumer completely when they say,
24:01 I'm not gonna travel, because they're still gripped by fear.
24:05 And they all look around saying, I can't imagine myself at a sporting event,
24:08 on an airplane, on a subway, etc.
24:11 Again, we would argue that that will moderate over time.
24:15 >> Yeah, and I do think it's also, it is different with the luxury traveler and
24:18 with the different types of travelers.
24:20 I think luxury travelers will be, like you alluded to, the first to come back
24:24 when everything is restricted, when the restrictions are lifted.
24:30 There also is a specific question to you, Clayton,
24:32 about will people hold off on plane travel until there's a vaccine?
24:36 >> I saw that from Laura.
24:37 Hi, Laura.
24:38 Yeah, so I don't believe that.
24:42 First of all, I'm not an expert on this area, obviously, but
24:45 I don't think there'll be a vaccine until well into next year.
24:48 I think people will more likely look at, and
24:50 I think this was mentioned earlier, maybe by Martin.
24:52 I think people will be more likely to look at government response and
24:56 private travel supplier response.
24:58 When the green light is given by governments, by municipalities,
25:02 by private operators, I think people will feel permission to start weighing back in.
25:07 And I don't happen to think that's gonna be tied to a vaccine.
25:11 It could well be tied to better testing.
25:14 And if you look at what's going on in South Korea and China, for example,
25:17 they have very substantial testing policies and
25:21 immediate testing where they are tracking the virus and making sure people who are,
25:25 I mean, Wuhan has traffic jams again.
25:27 I mean, they are full on, 85% of capacity has returned in China.
25:31 But they are testing people in a much more holistic way than we are in
25:34 North America to try to get a hold on who could still possibly pass the virus.
25:39 But vaccine, I think, is probably not gonna be the tipping point.
25:44 >> No, and of course, we don't know.
25:45 I mean, it might be like the flu vaccine, right, where it's 60% effective, and
25:49 we don't know what that kind of vaccine will look like.
25:51 So Paul and Lila, I mean, would you say September?
25:56 Would you book trips now for September and put your trusted voice behind that?
26:02 >> I've been hearing from a lot of clients that they are definitely looking for
26:08 opportunities.
26:09 And because of the flexibility issue that they're not gonna have to worry about
26:13 cancellations and not getting their money back,
26:16 they're thinking this is a great time to book.
26:19 Far out, I'm talking fall and winter.
26:24 And I think the suppliers have a big role in helping encourage and facilitate that.
26:30 I just read right before this call started,
26:32 one of the more innovative airlines has been Delta in terms of extending frequent
26:37 flyer privileges.
26:39 And I just heard that they were gonna be not selling and
26:42 blocking all middle seats.
26:44 So they're starting to sort of have that conversation with the travelers and
26:49 to start to get them comfortable that they will be safe when they fly.
26:55 And so I think that we talked about the vaccine.
26:59 I think vaccine is, as Clayton said, that's far off.
27:03 But what will happen sooner are antiviral responses, antiviral drugs.
27:08 And as well as that in combination with testing,
27:11 I think will combine to make people feel more comfortable.
27:15 And again, as I said before, I think there's going to become a tipping point
27:19 where people will start to hear from whether it's their colleagues at other
27:24 banks if they're a banker or their friends at their club who are booking a trip.
27:31 And they don't wanna be left out.
27:33 There's gonna be some kind of a tipping point where people are gonna say,
27:37 really, if Joe and Sally are going, well, maybe it's safe.
27:42 And maybe I should book and hold something.
27:45 And so when that happens, our advisors who are communicating constantly with
27:50 their clients are gonna start to get busier.
27:53 It hasn't happened yet, but I can see it coming soon.
27:56 >> Yeah, and like Laura said at the beginning,
27:58 I mean, April is basically quarantine month.
28:01 And so that's, I mean, something that's really struck out to me is,
28:05 stood out to me is that this is the planning time.
28:08 I mean, I never have enough time to plan trips, right?
28:10 I mean, this is the time where you can really be looking at restaurants and
28:13 guides and things like that.
28:15 Lila, are you encouraging that with your clients, that kind of planning process?
28:19 Or is it still a little too soon?
28:20 Or what are you seeing?
28:23 >> I mean, if I'm already working with someone on a trip or
28:27 if they have a trip planned, yeah, look,
28:32 I mean, I absolutely am planning with them.
28:34 What I'm not doing, I mean, I've taken, personally, I've taken the approach to
28:42 not reach out to clients who don't have anything planned in 2020 to talk about
28:46 travel, being very hands off in that regard.
28:51 And it's not ignoring it, it's just being sensitive and
28:57 empathetic to the situation.
29:00 So if clients don't have anything planned through 2020,
29:04 I'm not in touch with them on this.
29:05 I've not sent out a blanket statement or announcement from my agency.
29:10 But if any client reaches out to me about planning something for
29:15 July or August or September, absolutely, absolutely we're planning.
29:20 I mean, I have a client right now wanting to go to Asia at the end of July with
29:25 his family.
29:26 That one's honestly a little bit challenging because I don't know what
29:32 the border situation is gonna be like in Southern Asia at this point in time.
29:38 So that one's kind of tricky, but
29:42 I have a client who reached out about Greenland in August and
29:49 sent a proposal out last week.
29:51 So again, it's very individual and I think, again,
29:56 I think perception is gonna play into behavior big time.
29:59 And I think it's highly, highly individual.
30:04 Even within my client base, I mean, I have some clients who I'm like,
30:09 absolutely, there's no way they're gonna cancel.
30:11 They basically travel as part of their lifestyle and
30:13 they're canceling something in October.
30:16 And on the flip side, I have a family of six with a trip to Italy planned at
30:21 the beginning of June.
30:23 And I'm like, they're gonna be the first ones who are gonna cancel.
30:25 And they're holding out.
30:26 They're waiting to see what's gonna happen cuz they really wanna make it work.
30:30 So again, it's perception and for me,
30:35 it's just treating every traveler individually.
30:37 If they wanna plan, let's plan.
30:38 If they're not reaching out, I'm not reaching out.
30:41 >> Yeah, well, you said Italy too.
30:43 I mean, Italy in June, if it's open enough that they can go,
30:46 I mean, that might be a really great time to see it without the crowd.
30:49 >> It's gonna be a super special time to see it.
30:51 I mean, not to take up too much of your time, I was in India just before
30:56 the world basically clamped down in the middle of last month.
31:01 And I will probably say it was the most special trip of my life
31:07 because of the situation.
31:09 There weren't many tourists.
31:10 There weren't many travelers.
31:11 It was super raw and authentic and it was like traveling eons ago.
31:16 And I think that when things open up, some of those destinations that may seem
31:21 a little scary right now, I think for those travelers who are gonna go into
31:24 those destinations, they're gonna get an experience that
31:27 explorers and travelers got decades ago.
31:31 I truly, truly believe that.
31:34 >> I love that.
31:35 I love that feeling cuz it's kind of been lost, right,
31:37 in the over tourism talk that we had talked about for a long time.
31:40 And we'll be continuing to talk about cuz it's important.
31:42 But I did also had a lot of questions about operational changes.
31:48 Maybe I'll ask you Martin if you guys have talked about this,
31:51 an effort to soothe traveler safety concerns.
31:54 I mean, Switzerland of course has always been considered very safe.
31:57 But is there an extra level that you're hearing from your partners locally
32:01 about cleanliness or sharing rooms or bus tours or things like that?
32:07 >> Absolutely, I think these are very important determinants because we were
32:11 just talking about the tipping point.
32:13 And obviously, what determines the tipping point?
32:17 I guess it's the reliable sources of governments who are in charge of health
32:22 recommendations, but also of travel recommendations.
32:25 So I think everyone is turning to those trusted sources now.
32:30 And another determinant is, I think, people are very,
32:34 very perceptive of how countries are managing this crisis at this moment.
32:40 And we can see both sides of the spectrums.
32:43 I think you can see some countries are handling it rather well and
32:46 they slip out of this crisis, hopefully and probably a little bit earlier.
32:50 And others are maybe lacking the competence.
32:54 And maybe that has also an effect to the reputation.
33:02 Now, where does Switzerland stand in this spectrum?
33:05 I hope on the positive side, I think our government took fast actions.
33:08 That's why we are now looking at towards the end of our quarantine.
33:12 We think that in another two weeks or so we might be soon out of it.
33:16 And that means we are preparing for the second half of the year.
33:19 So you're asking us what do we do?
33:21 We are very, very positive and
33:23 confident that we can save the second half of this year,
33:28 which includes summer, which definitely includes autumn.
33:31 Autumn, which is basically a phenomenal season for Switzerland.
33:36 And what helps is we might not be the most fun country,
33:42 but I think at this stage of life, reliability, trust, purity,
33:49 safety are probably attributes which have a positive influence on your travel demands.
33:57 And we know all these attributes are not necessarily travel motives.
34:01 But if you don't have them, it might be an exclusion factor.
34:04 So we are very positive that the reliability,
34:08 which Switzerland stands for, will help us in this moment.
34:11 And the way our government handled the situations with,
34:16 I think they did a great job,
34:19 that spreads confidence in Switzerland as a travel destination.
34:25 Absolutely. You've been getting a lot of good press for even like the small business loans
34:29 and things like that, that just automatically get moved into people's accounts.
34:33 It's just very easy and seamless, which of course the US is not used to as much.
34:38 Exactly. I think it's also important how the country deals with the people.
34:44 Like we have these short term employments.
34:47 Basically, Switzerland as a country has two main goals.
34:50 We want to avoid as many bankruptcies as possible with the loans.
34:57 And we want to basically make sure unemployment will be as low as it was before.
35:03 So that's important how you deal with your people, with your population.
35:07 Absolutely.
35:09 Lindsay, I had actually a question specifically for you about
35:13 what advantages are hotels going to have in the new landscape?
35:15 Because you have so many of these unique properties that are family owned and have these personalities.
35:20 But how do you kind of show that they're all clean and safe and ready to go across the board?
35:26 Are you guys thinking about that as well?
35:28 Yeah, of course we are. And I think there's two phases to that.
35:31 There's this whole rolling recovery phase that's going to take place.
35:35 And then I think there's full recovery.
35:38 We've got a quality assurance program where we inspect hotels on a regular basis,
35:43 but also kind of through all the social aspects, we're able to monitor that.
35:47 But we're talking to a lot of our hotels and those that are open have obviously put in place
35:53 ways to communicate what they're doing from a health and safety standpoint.
35:57 So whether that's if somebody is checked out of a room,
36:00 they keep it unoccupied for 72 hours before they then go in and they have completely new cleaning protocols.
36:06 Most have obviously limited food and beverage, but they're allowing a lot more of the delivery processes
36:11 and kind of how they're controlling that to keep their guests that are in-house safe.
36:15 So I think there's part of communicating now for the hotels that are open,
36:19 for the guests that are there, the safety that's involved.
36:22 But I think as the full recovery takes place, it really is going to be about hotels communicating
36:28 their enhanced cleaning protocols.
36:31 I think you're probably going to see a lot more things.
36:33 I think keyless entry is going to probably all of a sudden take off a lot more now.
36:37 I think removing some touch points that people might be a little bit more wary of in the short run.
36:42 I do think that there'll be some shifts in how food and beverage is handled.
36:47 Even, you know, literally the white glove service concept might come back.
36:52 I think you might see a lot more hand sanitizers in public spaces and even shift in some of the products
37:00 that they're using in room, which I think in the long run is good.
37:04 But, you know, crisis creates creativity.
37:07 And I think that hotels are being very diligent about this and certainly so are the airlines.
37:11 I mean, I agree, it's probably the safest time to get on an airplane right now because
37:15 it's better than ever and there's a lot of space.
37:18 So I mean, I think that our hotels, the one thing we keep telling them is just that communication
37:23 is the most important, whether that's what's on their website, on their collateral materials,
37:27 how they're communicating through the social media, which right now is kind of the lifeblood
37:31 because most marketing has kind of pivoted to that.
37:33 And showing the stories as they reopen and as they have guests that the health and safety
37:41 of their clients is first and foremost.
37:43 So they're all doing that and they're doing it in creative ways.
37:46 And we're trying to share that information with them as it relates to best practices.
37:51 - Yeah, I love that.
37:52 And I think that kind of personal human connection approach always works.
37:57 Like, just, you know, joking about, "Are we going to shake hands again?
37:59 Are we going to...you know, no one knows actually."
38:01 That kind of thing.
38:03 Laura, I actually had a question for you about how this has forced a lot of us to embrace the virtual.
38:11 Do you see this trend continuing in the travel media space after this is over?
38:17 - That's a great question.
38:19 I actually, I mean, I think there will be a rush of people to get out and experience humanity again.
38:25 And I think virtual will take a dip.
38:28 But I do think people are discovering new types of feeds and ways to explore that they
38:33 hadn't thought of before.
38:36 And just the idea that so much can be offered for free, right?
38:40 Like Andrea Bocelli doing a concert at the Duomo in Milan this Sunday for Easter.
38:45 And even just John Legend performing in his living room.
38:48 I think there will be better access to places that are typically maybe roped off.
38:53 And I think that as a discovery tool is going to be more powerful than it was before.
38:59 I think people will be more used to it.
39:01 And even that is a barrier, right?
39:03 Like, grandparents are using Zoom.
39:06 I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity.
39:09 It won't be as important, but it'll definitely be something that we can continue to service.
39:14 Yeah, I think.
39:17 - Definitely.
39:18 I think, Paul, I had a question for you about, you know, have you, running such a big company,
39:25 have you learned any lessons during this time about what you'll take forward?
39:29 Maybe leaner and meaner or, you know, some good things that you're seeing that are,
39:34 that is going to come out of this?
39:36 - Yeah, obviously, one of the things that I think we're all learning in the business world is that,
39:44 you know, as much as you can prepare for worst case scenarios,
39:50 this is so far beyond what our worst case scenario ever was.
39:54 I think the airline, the oldest smart MBAs at the airlines also were all kind of in the same boat
40:01 in that this is a black swan event that, you know, really nobody could possibly have foreseen.
40:09 And so, you know, cash is king now.
40:12 And I think in the future, at least the way we are going to run our business,
40:17 I think we're going to be a little more cognizant of that and making sure that we have the staying power
40:24 to outlast, you know, I hate to say it, future pandemics.
40:29 I hope it doesn't happen.
40:31 And I hope that we've all learned a big lesson from this one.
40:35 I mean, I think our government was woefully ill-prepared.
40:39 And the fact that we're playing catch up in every single area relative to countries,
40:46 other first world countries like Switzerland and others, I think is a disgrace.
40:50 And I think is, you know, whether that will, you know, that will, you know, changes will be made
41:00 in terms of our election coming up, we'll see.
41:04 But, you know, so I think that there's, you know, there's a lot we will have learned from this.
41:10 And I think we will be a smarter company, we'll be hopefully a smarter country going forward.
41:16 And I think we will learn some very smart lessons and hopefully,
41:21 the next time something like this happens, we will be more prepared.
41:25 >> I just had a question come in too that said, you know,
41:29 crisis creates creativity and innovation.
41:31 And I think we've all seen that the past couple of weeks with these virtual things.
41:34 Some of them work really well, some of them don't.
41:38 You know, do you guys have any examples of things that you're doing at your companies
41:41 that are more creative or different than, you know,
41:45 things you just wouldn't have done before?
41:47 >> Yeah, so I'll give an example from one of our advised,
41:52 one of our luxury advisors who I just saw his email.
41:56 I mean, all of our people are communicating regularly with their clients and, you know,
42:03 enabling them to dream, which is what they want to do.
42:06 And so that when they're ready to travel, they will be, you know, calling them first.
42:11 But one of them who's very creative just sent an email out giving recipes from a,
42:18 I think it's the Connaught Bar, has two great drinking recipes.
42:24 And just to stay in front of them and just to, you know, get them to start thinking
42:28 about maybe going to the, going to London and going to the Connaught and having a drink
42:35 and the recipes that you could make at home.
42:37 So there's a lot of creativity that is being sparked by this crisis.
42:42 And in terms of how we communicate and how we maintain and build
42:46 on the relationships with our key clients.
42:49 And I think there's some really great lessons that are coming out of that for the future.
42:55 >> I'm making friends that I never would have talked to three months ago
42:57 because I didn't have the time, right?
42:58 And now all of a sudden I have these new friends
43:00 that will be real friends, right, when this is over.
43:02 So I think absolutely.
43:04 And Laura, we, I mean, we're doing the travel at home challenge, right?
43:08 And that's --
43:09 >> We are.
43:09 I wanted to bring that up.
43:10 I skipped my mind as you were talking about virtual travel.
43:13 But our FAR social media manager came up with this really clever idea
43:17 to do #travelathomechallenge.
43:20 And she posed it to our staff and asked everyone to kind of come
43:23 up with a little travel moment that they could recreate at home.
43:27 So I have two small children, almost three, almost one.
43:32 And I asked my toddler to pretend to be a little bull, a mini bull.
43:36 And we did running with the bulls in Spain in our backyard.
43:39 I wore all white with a red cape.
43:42 She wore a little Passover cattle mask and all black.
43:46 And she just chased me down the driveway.
43:48 And it was a hit.
43:50 The New York Times just covered it this week.
43:52 So a lot of different -- we've seen that extend to our readers.
43:58 It's fun, right?
44:00 I mean, like you mentioned early on, Annie, it's hard because we want to allow ourselves
44:06 to both feel fear, but also to know that it's okay
44:09 to have a little fun while you're at home, to laugh and to smile.
44:12 So I think we're also doing self-care a little better when you mentioned,
44:17 what are we doing that we're not normally doing?
44:19 So many people on our staff are taking up baking bread, right?
44:23 And signing up for dance classes and workouts online.
44:29 I am. I went running.
44:30 I ran for the first time in three years.
44:31 So I'm curious what everyone else is seeing or doing.
44:37 >> Yeah. And I wanted to just sort of close.
44:39 We have just less than 10 minutes and kind of go around the panel and just ask, you know,
44:44 what is one thing giving you hope right now or one thing making you laugh?
44:48 Maybe start with Lila.
44:50 I can see you up there first.
44:53 >> So much is making me laugh.
44:55 No, I mean, I think what's giving me hope, again,
44:58 I keep going to where I was literally days before having to get, you know,
45:05 rescue people out of Peru, but I was traveling through India.
45:09 And that time was so, it was so special.
45:13 I mean, it had to be done differently because things were changing.
45:18 And actually, India closed their borders to new entries while I was there.
45:23 So, I mean, we were having to change things.
45:25 But the specialness of that trip, it honestly, like I said earlier, is just giving me hope
45:33 because I think that the way that I'm going to do things is naturally going to have to change.
45:41 But then I think about my suppliers on the ground.
45:43 I think about DMCs, onsites, hotels, restaurateurs.
45:47 I think about everybody that's having to do things differently.
45:50 And someone mentioned the word "pure."
45:53 And that's another one of the key words that I've had
45:56 through this whole thing is just pure and purity.
45:59 I think that coming out of it in the very near term, the very immediate first travels
46:08 that are going to be happening in 2020, I think I'm hoping are going to be very pure
46:14 and very thoughtful from the traveler's, you know, perspective.
46:18 But also from hotels and onsites.
46:22 I mean, they're having to think about doing things completely differently.
46:26 You can't look at the way that you did things a month ago.
46:30 So, I'm really hopeful that things are going to feel really, really authentic, close.
46:36 >> Yeah.
46:37 >> Like traveling decades ago, you know?
46:42 >> I love that.
46:43 Lindsey?
46:45 >> The TV show Tiger King on Netflix is keeping me very entertained from our standpoint.
46:51 But from a hopeful, positive, I just think it's the renewed sense of community
46:56 that's taking place not only within the travel industry, but literally in our own backyards.
47:00 And that there's businesses, whether it be restaurants that have shifted to almost acting
47:04 like grocery stores to those that are just offering, like you said,
47:08 free virtual fitness classes or training classes.
47:12 You know, there's just been a lot of community where people have said,
47:14 "I'm going to do this for free.
47:15 And I'm going to open up my doors to give as many people access."
47:20 And just has been inspiring.
47:22 And I think it's just a shift in the way people are looking at giving back
47:26 in a really difficult time of crisis.
47:29 That keeps me going.
47:31 >> Thank you.
47:32 I love that.
47:33 Clayton?
47:35 >> Well, I agree.
47:36 I think seeing the creativity that people clearly exhibit in these situations is hopeful.
47:41 I'm a little bit more cynical about people returning
47:44 or changing their behaviors broadly over time.
47:46 I actually think, I think back to a lot of these other things we've covered,
47:49 people tend to return to norms.
47:51 It depends on how long it could take time for some of that to happen.
47:55 But I'm a little bit more cynical that suddenly people are going to be more altruistic
47:58 or suddenly change wholesale the way they travel.
48:01 I don't, I guess, fundamentally believe that.
48:03 But I do think, I do think the one upside to this over time will be
48:08 that governments especially begin to recognize the importance of travel as an economic lever.
48:13 It's going to be very interesting to see how, what happens next year with funding formulas
48:18 around DMOs, with the way in which governments have stepped in,
48:21 especially government airlines, to save those airlines.
48:25 Because I think sometimes people forget how big, it's the second largest industry in the world.
48:30 It's a massive GDP contributor.
48:32 And I do think that the upside to this will be people's recognition that travel has
48:36 to be protected and that from an economic standpoint,
48:39 it's one of the most important industries globally.
48:42 >> Yeah, absolutely.
48:43 And again, like we've talked about, that advisors are key to that because they're
48:47 like Lila got her clients out of Peru and they wouldn't have gotten out if it wasn't for her.
48:51 So those kinds of relationships.
48:54 Okay, I'm going to speed through.
48:55 Paul.
48:56 >> Yeah, so I'll be quick.
48:58 I have to give a quick shout out to my good friend, Matthew Upchurch, whose quote I will say,
49:04 "Never underestimate the power of human connection."
49:07 And so I agree with him completely.
49:11 Having gone through, this is now my 36th year in this industry.
49:15 We have been through, for those of you like me who are trying to celebrate Passover,
49:22 I look at this as the 10 plagues on the travel business.
49:25 You know, we started many years ago.
49:27 We had the commission cuts, for those who remember.
49:30 I'm sort of the eminence grease on this panel as I look at everybody.
49:34 You know, airline bankruptcies.
49:36 I mean, two Gulf Wars.
49:38 Do you remember SARS, the ash cloud, Hurricane Sandy?
49:44 Of course, you know, 9/11 and the global financial crisis.
49:49 So I'm not sure if that's 10, but I think that's enough.
49:52 I think that if we can go back as an industry, and we, all of us on this call, and you know,
50:00 the panelists as well, come out, have come out, we've survived.
50:04 We've gotten stronger.
50:05 We've learned lessons.
50:06 I am extremely hopeful that, you know, this is going to be in our rearview mirror very
50:13 soon and we could all get back to business and we'll have learned some great lessons.
50:19 So that's why.
50:20 Thank you.
50:21 And Martin, what is making you laugh or giving you hope?
50:25 I'm actually with Paul.
50:29 I think this is an evolution acceleration.
50:32 I think we'll come out stronger.
50:34 If I just look at the development we made in these couple of weeks in terms of digitization,
50:41 I mean, I would probably never have been so fast with our organization if we had a top
50:47 down management decision.
50:48 So this has really brought us forward.
50:51 And I am very hopeful for the second half this year.
50:55 I think Switzerland will be back and open for business for the second half.
50:59 That gives us hope that the year is a terrible year, but it's not over yet.
51:04 We live in April and we have many months to go.
51:07 And what makes me particularly laugh is, I don't know if you have this in the US, but
51:13 we have this absurd toilet paper hoarding and I love the reaction on the internet about
51:18 it.
51:19 A lot of toilet paper memes out there.
51:22 Ellen, I'll throw it to you to close.
51:25 You know, I mean, there was a question specifically for you about has this pause made you gravitate
51:29 to the places you love or is it going to make you want to see other places?
51:33 And because you're such an accomplished traveler is what the question said.
51:36 Thank you, Carrie, for that question.
51:40 So that's an interesting question because I believe that not only have we talked a lot
51:46 about human connection, but there's a lot of empathy that we've related here that needs
51:51 to happen even deeper.
51:53 And the voice of afar has been truly empathetic and everyone here has shared a lot about what
51:58 the empathetic approach has been.
52:01 And I think that travel decisions, certainly mine will be to support those friends in the
52:06 industry that I really care for and have visited and enjoy and the people that work for them
52:12 that I know.
52:13 And I think that there is something to that for everyone.
52:15 If you care enough about a destination, a specific hotel, a cruise line, an airline,
52:22 if you care about our media, if you care about, you know, preferred or any one of you, you're
52:28 going to support them now versus trying to spread your wings too far and too thin and
52:35 you can't really make a difference, at least initially.
52:38 So I will absolutely travel straight away and I will go to the places that I love and
52:45 support the people that I care about because everyone needs to be supported right now.
52:50 So that's, you know, that leads me to thanking all of you, the panelists and the audience.
52:56 And really this is a time where together we will get through this and together we will
53:02 grow and learn.
53:03 It's fascinating.
53:04 Even LDR, as I call her, Laura, has started by talking about the phases of content and
53:10 how that's resonated so deeply with our audience.
53:12 And one week to the next, everything changes.
53:15 I mean, we heard that, you know, we're out of crisis management.
53:19 Well, stay tuned because next week, Thursday noon, we're going to talk about crisis management
53:24 next week.
53:25 So it's really kind of not over.
53:27 We're still in quarantine.
53:29 We still can't travel and we need to have the right tone as we heard today.
53:35 Not being tone deaf is a very critical piece of how we communicate.
53:40 And I know that together we will get through this.
53:44 I urge everyone to continue to listen, listen to each other, care about those people who
53:50 you love and also those who might need you right now.
53:53 And this is an industry that will prevail.
53:56 We are, you know, as Paul has mentioned several times, he's been through many of these moments,
54:02 but this is a time where I know we will gather together and make it through on the other
54:08 side.
54:09 And I'm grateful to all of you.
54:11 This has given hope to everyone, I hope, on the call.
54:14 So thank you again.
54:16 And we look forward to seeing you next Thursday noon.
54:20 We will continue to do these as long as you'll have us.
54:24 Thank you very much, Ellen.
54:25 Thank you guys so much for joining us and taking the time.
54:27 I really appreciate it.
54:28 This is so much more than a job to a lot of us.
54:31 So thank you.
54:32 Thank you.
54:33 Bye.
54:34 Thank you.
54:35 Bye.
54:36 Have a good night, day, morning, wherever you are around the world.
54:40 Bye.
54:41 Bye.
54:41 Bye.
54:42 Bye.
54:42 Bye.
54:47 [BLANK_AUDIO]