Netanyahu's 'war for political survival' : Are objectives being met as Israel battles Hamas in Gaza?
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00:00 Filippo Dionigi is a senior lecturer of politics and international relations at the University
00:04 of Bristol and joins me now live from there.
00:07 Filippo, thanks for taking the time to speak to us.
00:09 It's been just over 10 weeks now since the start of the war.
00:13 It seems though that in the past few days at least, international pressure seems to
00:17 be growing on Benjamin Netanyahu.
00:19 Would you agree?
00:20 And could that push the government to change its tactics in the war against Hamas?
00:24 Look, I think it's a very complex situation.
00:27 I mean, as you were saying, we are 10 weeks into this conflict.
00:31 And let's say that Israel had five objectives to achieve with this war.
00:35 The first one is eradicating Hamas.
00:38 The second is the liberation of the 100 and 30 hostages that are left in Gaza.
00:43 The third one is the restoration of security in the areas that neighbor Gaza, but also
00:50 on the northern border with Lebanon, where the situation is increasingly fragile and
00:55 serious in that respect, too.
00:57 A fourth undeclared objective was possibly making Gaza a place that is unleavable and
01:03 possibly even remove the Palestinian population from that area.
01:07 And a fifth undeclared objective is the political survival of Netanyahu itself.
01:12 I don't see personally, if you think of it, the realization of at least the first four
01:18 objectives.
01:19 Forget about the fifth one for a minute, which means that this war is increasingly day by
01:23 day becoming less and less justifiable for Israel itself.
01:29 Which is why probably we see an increasing pressure coming also from Israel allies.
01:35 Yesterday, we saw a joint declaration from the foreign minister of the UK and the foreign
01:41 minister of Germany that are basically calling for the conditions to establish a sustainable
01:47 ceasefire.
01:48 It's a belated request at this point, but it marks a significant turn in the type of
01:53 pressure that Israel allies are putting on Israel itself and on Netanyahu.
01:58 As you were saying also last week, we saw President Biden in fact saying that Israel's
02:04 bombardments of Gaza were not possibly, were indiscriminate in fact, which is tantamount
02:12 to an indirect accusation of the breach of the law of wars, in fact.
02:18 Last week, the U.S. Secretary of Defense is due to visit Israel, and yesterday the France
02:26 foreign minister, Colonna, was actually visiting Israel and then moved on with a visit to Lebanon.
02:32 In reality, diplomacy seems to be moving and time pressure is becoming possibly the worst
02:38 enemy for Netanyahu at this point.
02:41 The real question is, will Netanyahu really hear to these requests or not?
02:47 It's something that probably we will need to wait and see for having this answer.
02:52 Right.
02:53 So there's a lot to unpack there.
02:54 So let's just kind of take those things one by one.
02:56 Let's start with that ceasefire vote that could happen today at the UN.
03:00 Do you think the U.S. will finally either abstain or vote yes to that ceasefire?
03:04 And if so, what exactly will be behind this change of heart?
03:08 Will it be this criticism of the indiscriminate bombing like you were mentioning a moment
03:12 ago?
03:13 Well, look, the bombing that we saw, and generally the military operation that we saw
03:18 on Gaza is ferocious.
03:21 And 40 percent of the bombs that have been dropped on Gaza are in fact so-called dumb
03:26 bombs, so bombs that are non-GPS guided.
03:28 And they were dropped on one of the areas of the world that is most densely populated,
03:33 which is why civilian casualties were so high.
03:37 They are counted up until now as 18,000 by the Gazan authorities themselves.
03:44 So in reality, I mean, is this sustainable and for how long?
03:48 Consider that also public opinion has been mobilized seriously and has moved the worst
03:56 possible accusations against Israel.
04:00 Israel has been accused of breaching the laws of war, but also of the most egregious crimes
04:07 against humanity, genocide, in fact.
04:09 So obviously this is something that is not sustainable in the long term, especially if
04:13 you think that this war is not really delivering what it's supposed to deliver so far.
04:18 The hostages are still there.
04:20 And the killing of the three hostages on Friday by the Israeli army has worsened the situation
04:27 even further and has put even greater pressure on the domestic level on Netanyahu to address
04:33 this situation more meaningfully.
04:35 It's difficult to say, to answer your question whether the U.S. at this point will abstain
04:39 or will vote in favor of the ceasefire.
04:42 I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll vote in favor.
04:46 But at this point also, you know, another consideration is in place.
04:49 Exactly, even assuming that the UN Security Council will approve a call for a ceasefire,
04:55 what are going to be the consequences on the ground for this?
04:59 Will actually Israel abide to this or not?
05:01 It will be a symbolic and very formal move.
05:04 It will mark a turn.
05:05 But the reality on the ground may not be necessarily affected in the short term.
05:10 And also, as I was mentioning before, I'm slightly concerned about what's happening
05:14 on the northern border between Israel and Lebanon, which may be the sort of follow up
05:19 situation for this conflict where we will need to consider, in fact.
05:25 Indeed.
05:26 And what's interesting, as you mentioned at the beginning, these five pillars, the fifth
05:30 pillar being Netanyahu and his future himself.
05:33 A recent poll shows that the majority of Israelis actually hold Benjamin Netanyahu accountable
05:37 for what's happening now.
05:38 Do you think that this war will mark the downfall of Benjamin Netanyahu?
05:43 It's hard to say.
05:44 One of the reasons why he has been so determined and so aggressive in its policy towards Gaza
05:51 is possibly explained by the fact that this war is a war for survival politically for
05:56 him as well.
05:57 Right.
05:58 And if any of the objectives that they have established for this war will be achieved,
06:02 then he might be able to claim a victory, quote unquote, for this war.
06:07 But the reality, as I was trying to say at the beginning, is none of these objectives
06:11 is in fact seem to be in reach for the time being.
06:14 It has not been achieved to any meaningful extent for the time being.
06:17 So it's a hard time for Prime Minister Netanyahu, as far as I can see.
06:21 Filippo, thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us.
06:24 That's Filippo Dionighi at the University of Brazil.
06:26 Thank you.