No 'overtly clear' solution to protect key shipping route in Red Sea's 'historically volatile region'
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00:00 Now, joining me in the studio is our international affairs commentator, Doug Herbert, and also
00:05 is Professor Hilary Ingham, an economist at Lancaster University in the UK.
00:10 Thanks to both of you.
00:11 Doug, let me start with you.
00:13 Why is the Red Sea so critical to global shipping?
00:16 Well, it's one of the world's biggest maritime trade channels.
00:20 And in this particular case, as we've been saying, we heard in that report, it is about
00:24 12%, right, 12% of all global trade.
00:27 But perhaps even more importantly, it's about 30%, nearly a third of the global container
00:32 traffic, you know, those giant containers that we see piled up at docks around the world.
00:37 So you know, when we're talking about needed supplies, major necessities, it is a major
00:42 transshipment point.
00:44 But more importantly, the area that we're sort of focusing on, we're saying Red Sea,
00:48 and it's sort of like, you know, the umbrella term we're using, but the actual focus here
00:53 of these attacks is on a narrow strait at the southern entrance leading into the Red
00:58 Sea, right at the southern end, you have a strait, the Bab al-Mandab, maybe you could
01:02 we could bring up a map and show our viewers.
01:05 And it's that area, it's very narrow, it's off the coast of Yemen, and right between
01:09 Yemen and Djibouti on Africa's coast.
01:11 And you could see there, it's about no more than 30 kilometers, about 20 miles, just over
01:16 20 miles wide.
01:18 It's very, very narrow.
01:19 And in order to get into the Red Sea, for those ships to make their way up towards the
01:23 Suez Canal, which is the northernmost part of the Red Sea, they have to navigate those
01:29 drones and ballistic missiles coming through.
01:31 So right now you have a situation and you remember whenever you have shipping blocked
01:36 on the Red Sea or a part of the Red Sea, whether it's the strait or a canal, we remember the
01:40 Suez Canal, the giant ship being blocked there back in 2021, there was about $10 billion
01:45 a day in global commerce that was being lost just because ships couldn't get through.
01:50 That's why right now we are all concentrating and our eyes are riveted because of the security
01:56 situation around that narrow little entranceway to the Red Sea that those ships must navigate
02:02 to make that crossing from Asia onwards to Europe.
02:06 At this point, let me bring in Professor Ingham from Lancaster University.
02:09 Professor, what are going to be the direct consequences of this blockade or problem,
02:15 not to mention the long term, given those ships are effectively sitting ducks, aren't
02:20 they, in those waters?
02:28 I'm sorry, Professor, I think you've pressed your mute button.
02:31 I'm going to try and ask you the question again.
02:34 What will be the long term consequences of all this?
02:39 Can you hear me now?
02:40 Yes, I can.
02:41 Well, I think it's what happens to these ships.
02:45 I mean, if they actually manage to go through this narrow entrance, as was being discussed,
02:51 the first thing is that these cargoes and the ships themselves are insured and the insurance
02:56 companies are putting up the price.
02:58 So previously, it was about 0.07% of the value of the ship and the cargo that could go up
03:06 by as much as 10%.
03:08 Now what a lot of these carriers have said they're going to do, BP and Maersk in particular,
03:14 they're going to take an alternative route.
03:16 So they're going to go around the Cape of Good Hope, either going around South Africa.
03:21 Now the implication of that is it adds two weeks to their journey time.
03:26 So obviously, adding that on is going to add to the cost of transportation, which is going
03:31 to add to the cost of the goods they're actually delivering.
03:34 And that is going to work its way all the way through the supply chain.
03:38 Doug, perhaps we need to remind our audience why the Houthis are indeed carrying out these
03:42 attacks because if you look at that map, it's a long way from Gaza, isn't it?
03:47 Absolutely.
03:48 And the Houthis, I mean, look, what it boils down to is what are they trying to do?
03:51 And that they're trying to get regional street cred.
03:52 And what do I mean by that?
03:54 They're right now in a region where they say that this is basically a show of support,
03:59 these attacks for their Palestinian allies, for the Palestinians under Israeli bombardment
04:03 in Gaza.
04:05 And from their perspective, they see the other Arab leaders around the region.
04:10 Remember, they're not the leadership.
04:11 They're not the officially recognized government.
04:13 They are a rebel group that has been battling the internationally recognized government.
04:17 But what they see is they say they are the true supporters of the Palestinians.
04:21 They say the other Arab leaders have been going to all these international forums, paying
04:24 lip service to support for the Palestinian cause, when in effect, they're really just
04:29 lackeys of the West, Israel and its Western allies.
04:32 They're not really supporting the Palestinians.
04:34 So these attacks are meant to be sort of literally a shot across the bow to the international
04:38 community to say, yeah, we're the real supporters of the Palestinians.
04:42 And this is also a shot across the bow to Israel.
04:45 That is, as from the Houthi perspective, the ones who are guilty, Israel and the U.S.,
04:49 of waging this offensive, this horrific war against their Palestinian allies.
04:54 Remember, the slogan of the Houthis is death to America, death to Israel.
04:58 They're trying to do it.
04:59 And also along the way, if they happen to gain more legitimacy on the home front, where
05:04 they've consolidated control of most of North Yemen, and in order to, going ahead, try to
05:10 further consolidate their control, this will help as well if they were seen at the time
05:14 of distress really being the ones who backed the Palestinians.
05:16 But they are backed by Iran, which is another critical element, isn't it?
05:20 Absolutely.
05:21 They're Iranian proxies, at least they are accused thereof.
05:23 They would, Hezbollah, Iran, they have denied aiding, abetting in any way the Houthis along
05:31 the way.
05:32 But the West has time and again come up with, and intelligence has come up with what they
05:35 say is incontrovertible evidence that the Houthis have greatly benefited from both weapons
05:41 and technology provided by Iran, and by Iran, Hezbollah as well in Lebanon.
05:48 Professor, what impact is this going to have on the oil market?
05:52 Well, I think the danger is that the oil and natural gas prices are going to rise.
05:57 And of course, with many countries around the globe fighting inflation, this is going
06:02 to be another threat in their efforts to reduce the rate of inflation.
06:08 Doug, what impact is this having on the region in general?
06:12 I mean, it's interesting to note in that coalition, the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates are
06:17 certainly not members, are they?
06:18 Yeah.
06:19 And I sort of try to divine what would be the reasons that the Saudis, remember, the
06:22 Houthis have been, had been waging until a ceasefire back in September 2022, they had
06:27 been waging an intense, an intense war against a Saudi led coalition with the Saudis and
06:33 the UAE that the UN said had given rise to the world's greatest humanitarian crisis,
06:39 much of the population on the verge of starvation.
06:42 So why would the Saudis and the UAE be sitting out?
06:44 They don't want to be seen.
06:47 This is one avenue of speculation.
06:48 They don't want to be seen as doing anything that could be seen as supporting Israel.
06:53 That is by joining a coalition to protect against or to fend off Houthi ballistic missile
07:00 and drone attacks.
07:01 They could be seen as somehow weighing in, tilting the balance on the side of Israel
07:05 in this war.
07:06 So in the sense of perhaps coming across as more neutral or not wanting to be seen in
07:11 that light, they're staying out of this coalition.
07:13 I'll also note that the coalition, you know, even though we were talking about this earlier,
07:18 the trade routes go from Asia to Europe, but you don't have players such as China in the
07:22 coalition either.
07:24 It's 10 nations and for now it's predominantly European nations, along with the Seychelles
07:29 and I'm forgetting who the others are in Canada as well.
07:34 Professor Ingham, clearly given what we're experiencing now in the Red Sea, it's a reminder
07:39 of the fragility of that part of the world.
07:42 You know, the fact it is indeed a key shipping route.
07:46 So what can be done to protect this key route?
07:51 I mean, is there anything on a global level?
07:53 Are there any measures that can be imposed?
07:57 It's difficult to really see an answer.
07:59 I mean, obviously we've got this coalition that's come together, but you know, as has
08:04 just been said, there's a lot of nations not involved in that.
08:07 I mean, this is a very volatile region.
08:09 Historically, it's been the same as well.
08:12 There hasn't been an answer before and it's not overtly clear that there is one now.
08:18 Professor Ingham from Lancaster University.
08:19 We're going to have to leave it there and thank you also to Doug Herbert, our international
08:23 affairs commentator.