Putin says Russia will push further into Ukraine after 'chaotic' fall of Avdiivka
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00:00 To talk a bit more then about what's happening in Ukraine at the moment, Angela Diffley, our foreign editor is with me.
00:05 And Angela, what did you make of what we saw in that report in terms of this question of whether or not
00:10 Ukraine is getting bogged down as we approach the second anniversary of the war?
00:15 Yeah, obviously I'm unable to say whether Krinki has or has not fallen to the Russians.
00:20 Even those who are monitoring this very carefully are not clear exactly what's happened.
00:27 We do know of course that recently they captured Avdivka.
00:31 And we know that the Ukrainians' summer counter-offensive, about which we heard so much,
00:39 to try and sever that land bridge between Russia and Crimea failed.
00:46 We know that the Ukrainians are losing a lot of soldiers.
00:50 It's estimated that there are four to five Russian soldiers for every one Ukrainian soldier.
00:57 They are also burning through ammunition and weapons, much of it supplied by the West.
01:03 And of course that is leading to a drop in morale within Ukraine.
01:08 We heard earlier from our correspondent, Gulliver-Cragg, that there is a sense that
01:12 morale is dropping in Ukraine.
01:15 And coming up to the two-year anniversary, contrasting that with when Zelensky was celebrated
01:22 around the world, when morale was high, when they astonished the whole world by this extraordinary
01:28 spirit of resistance, and there was a lot of belief in what they might achieve.
01:32 Now, set against that, of course, it is in Russia's interests to say that they have captured Krinki.
01:38 We are coming up to the second anniversary and there are elections coming up in Russia.
01:44 So it is in their interests to trumpet some sort of success there.
01:49 We do know that it seems experts think that Russia lost vast numbers of soldiers
01:58 in its capture of Avdivka recently.
02:01 So it's difficult to say.
02:02 It looks very much like a stalemate right now.
02:05 A stalemate, you say, Angela.
02:08 Does that suggest that Ukraine might be thinking about changing its military strategy now?
02:12 Yeah, the problem with a stalemate is that a stalemate benefits the Russians automatically
02:17 because it erodes Western support for Ukraine.
02:21 If it is seen to be a war that is unwinnable in the West, then it will be harder to convince
02:28 Western governments to subsidise it and to send weaponry.
02:33 Recently, Zelensky changed his top general.
02:38 He has so far resisted Zelensky calls for a massive recruitment drive because he knows
02:45 it's very unpopular.
02:45 A lot of those who wanted to fight for Ukraine signed up two years ago, but they are very
02:51 much in need of rest and respite now.
02:54 And he is so far resisting a major drive.
02:57 But there is an idea now that Ukraine is now moving towards a defensive posture in order
03:05 to retrain its soldiers and to manufacture more weaponry and more ammunition as well
03:12 in that time.
03:13 Perhaps continue with missile and drone attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea,
03:20 perhaps continue with that.
03:21 And all of this, perhaps with a view to another offensive in 2025 if things go to plan.
03:28 It's felt that that is more or less the position of the Ukrainian leadership at the moment.
03:35 All of this, of course, depends massively on whether they will get weaponry, ammunitions,
03:42 military aid from the US.
03:44 And if Donald Trump gets in, that is very much in doubt.
03:47 Huge questions indeed.
03:48 Thanks very much, Angela Diffley.