الين الياباني يتراجع على الرغم من معدلات الفائدة الإيجابية.. لماذا؟
Transcript
00:00 The Japanese central bank raised interest for the first time since 2007.
00:07 It took interest from the negative interest rate to be between 0.1% and 0.1% and abolished the policy of controlling the return.
00:16 All this was supposed to have a positive effect on the Japanese yen.
00:21 It was supposed to see increases in the US dollar, but in practice, this did not happen.
00:26 The yen was in a recession after this decision. This is the performance of the US dollar in the face of the yen.
00:31 We have seen increases in the US dollar in the face of the yen.
00:34 It reached 7% levels since the beginning of 2024, but these increases continued after the central bank's decision to break the 150 yen barrier,
00:48 which was a barrier that the Japanese central bank was defending previously.
00:52 Why did we see this reaction from the Japanese yen after this decision?
00:57 The first reason is that it was a risky decision, especially since the Nikkei newspaper,
01:03 a day or two before the meeting was scheduled,
01:06 talked about taking this decision.
01:10 But this is not the only reason.
01:12 The other reason is related to the difference in interest rates between the US and Japan.
01:22 In the US, the interest rates are still at 5.5% while in Japan, it is 0.1%.
01:32 Notice this huge difference between the two.
01:35 This difference means that we also have a big difference between the US and Japanese bonds.
01:41 The US bond interest rates are at 4.0%, while the Japanese bond interest rates are at 0.7% for 10 years.
01:49 Why is this important?
01:51 Because the Japanese yen was always known as the "carry trade",
01:55 which is based on borrowing a cheap currency and investing in a currency that gives high interest rates.
02:03 Investors did this extensively during the coming period, especially because of the difference in interest rates.
02:10 The "carry trade" for 3 months on the dollar-yen is about 5% per year.
02:17 Even after the Japanese central bank raised interest rates,
02:20 investors still can't carry trade because there is a huge difference in interest rates.
02:28 This is the second reason.
02:30 The third reason is the real rate, which is still in the negative range.
02:37 We are talking about -2.8% or -2.8% per 100 yen.
02:42 If we take the interest rate and increase it to about 2.9% per 100 yen,
02:49 we will reach a real rate of interest in the negative range.
02:53 This is also a matter of pressure on the yen.
02:55 Finally, this increase by the Japanese central bank is known as the "Dovish hike",
03:01 or an increase in interest but with a margin of easy.
03:04 Owaida has confirmed that the interest rate and the monetary policy will remain accommodative.
03:11 This means that it could be the last and first increase of this year.
03:17 We may not see any more increase in interest rates.
03:20 All these files and factors have been leaked and have put pressure on the yen.
03:26 The Japanese yen remains among the most important currencies that carry trade can be financed through.