#Infosys shares fall after Q4 revenue misses estimates, modest guidance.
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Smriti Chaudhary on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Smriti Chaudhary on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00 Maybe a short-term query or a long-term investment strategy to write to us your queries.
00:05 But before we do that, let's take a quick check of the markets.
00:08 You have the benchmark not doing too badly considering the macros and considering the
00:15 geopolitical tensions around.
00:17 It's down only four-tenths of a percent.
00:19 Then if you look at some of the sectors, the key sectors that are moving, Nifty has, it's
00:26 down about nine-tenths of a percent right now, almost a percent.
00:29 All the sectors in red, not even one in green.
00:33 You have PSU Bank down, Realty down, Media down.
00:37 However, PSU Bank doing worse than others.
00:41 But lot of weakness based on the global cues that we're getting.
00:48 Crude is up.
00:49 You have geopolitical tensions brewing in Iran and Israel.
00:52 That's impacting the markets as well.
00:56 On the broader end of the spectrum, you have the Nifty mid-cap down over a percent and
01:01 Nifty small cap down about seven-tenths of a percent.
01:04 So a bit of a weakness there as well.
01:07 Let's also pull up the breadth of the market, obviously in the favor of declines today.
01:11 But just to see, yeah, so it's about a one, one is to five.
01:16 That's the ratio that we're currently playing at in terms of breadth of the market.
01:20 However, the focus for today, Alex, remains emphasis, right?
01:25 We saw results.
01:26 We've already seen results of TCS and seems to be on a similar trend there.
01:32 Yeah, absolutely.
01:33 In fact, if anything, the deal wins being strong is something that is common.
01:39 However, the ability to convert those deals into revenue seems to be a bit of a challenge
01:44 for enforcers and that is reflected in the stock price right now.
01:47 Let's talk about the key takeaways though and Richa is joining in to tell you just that.
01:51 Richa, what can you tell us?
01:52 Yes.
01:53 Hi, Alex.
01:54 So as rightly mentioned, there are three key takeaways from the results yesterday.
01:59 Infosys gave a muted guidance.
02:00 However, the management also mentioned that the first half will be strong on the back
02:05 of ramp up of deals in the BFSI sector.
02:08 This means that the second half of the year will likely be muted.
02:12 Number two, Infosys has given the highest ever deal wins.
02:17 But again, does that really matter?
02:18 Because this was the case with TCS as well.
02:21 And these deal wins are not getting converted into the top line.
02:24 Clients are also opting for more of cost optimization deals.
02:27 Now, these kind of deals come with tighter margins and tighter budgets.
02:31 Therefore, the margins of IT companies will likely go down because they will have to cut
02:36 down costs internally to serve those clients.
02:40 And this implies that the pressure on discretionary spends still remains in the sector.
02:44 And this was also again mentioned by the TCS management last Friday.
02:49 Thanks so much, Richa, for breaking that down.
02:50 In fact, let us get our experts on.
02:52 We have got Sunny Garwal, who is head of fundamental equity research at SBI CAP.
02:56 And we have got also Vaishali Parekh, who is a technical specialist joining in right
03:03 now.
03:04 Thank you so much to the both of you for joining in.
03:06 Let us start with a fundamental check on Infosys.
03:09 Sunny, what do you make of the results, one, and in the context of the wider IT space,
03:16 would you say that Infosys can be picked up right now based on the kind of performance
03:21 or would you say that based on the underperformance, if you can call it that, it should be avoided?
03:29 Good morning, Alex, and thanks for having me on the show.
03:31 I think after looking at Infosys and TCS number, one thing is pretty sure that the demand environment,
03:39 at least in a short term, when I say short term, a quarter or two is not very healthy
03:44 or maybe kind of uncertain, that is what I can read from the commentary of TCS and Infosys
03:49 management.
03:50 Having said that, medium to long term outlook continues to remain robust, looking at a healthy
03:55 deal means.
03:56 However, the way Infosys has cut the growth guidance for FY25, it seems that it will be
04:03 clearly or relatively underperforming stock, if I take next quarter or two, from a quarter
04:10 or two perspective.
04:11 So if somebody wants to invest in the IT sector, I think first of all the right place will
04:18 be in a mid-size IT company, which are likely to post a relatively better number as compared
04:23 to tier one companies.
04:24 But if still somebody patiently wants to invest through SIP route, maybe I would like to wait
04:32 for numbers of SCL tech, where I find relatively the company is likely to outperform in terms
04:38 of growth.
04:39 So out of TCS and Infosys, definitely I would like to, at a current juncture, I would like
04:43 to pick TCS among Infosys and TCS.
04:47 Okay, that's a fair point.
04:49 Very quickly Vaishali, do you want to weigh in on Infy and the wider pack?
04:53 And I completely take the point that Sunny is making on the mid-cap IT company.
04:56 So are you seeing any opportunities there?
04:58 Very good morning.
05:00 Actually, yes, actually I have been observing the IT sector on the whole since quite some
05:05 time.
05:06 There we saw it has broken, but I would say it stopped per se.
05:10 Infosys has really corrected and I think it's quite a fair value according to the technical
05:16 parameters.
05:17 So we were looking even before the results, 1400 levels was acting as a crucial support
05:22 and a make or break.
05:23 And if that was broken, we were looking at 1380, 1360.
05:28 So we pretty much did 1380, I think in the opening.
05:31 And I would say for a long-term perspective, one should start accumulating Infosys from
05:35 here.
05:36 All right.
05:38 Good morning Vaishali and Sunny.
05:40 Let's start off with the questions now.
05:42 The first one is from Sameer on India Bulls Real Estate.
05:45 Now they say they bought the shares at 134 level.
05:48 It's currently trading below that price.
05:50 Vaishali, we have seen a good run in the stock in the last one year.
05:54 However, some weakness in the last month or so.
05:59 What would you suggest to somebody who's bought into the stock at a slightly higher price
06:04 than what it's currently trading at?
06:07 Should you continue holding on to it?
06:10 I would say so actually there's nothing wrong with the trend.
06:13 Keep 120 as the support level.
06:15 If 120 levels break, then it calls for a negative move.
06:19 But till then I would say just hold on, wait for it to bounce back.
06:23 Okay, let's pull up Zomato.
06:25 And in fact, quite a lot has been said about this.
06:27 And I'm quite interested to find out what the earnings picture is going to be for this
06:30 particular company.
06:32 It's up about half a percent and trading at 185.
06:34 And we've got Mathan who has bought at levels of 180.
06:38 He's tuning in from Chennai.
06:40 Sunny on the fundamentals, would you say that it should be held?
06:44 And this is a company that is operating in a space that understandably a lot of people
06:50 are attributing a lot of potential to.
06:52 But when do you think it's going to translate into the bottom line?
06:57 I think the way Zomato has performed over the period of last three to four quarters,
07:03 I think the company is on track to report healthy profitability, especially one year
07:08 down the line.
07:09 So both the food delivery business as well as the grocery delivery business, which is
07:14 a blanket, the synergies are clearly visible.
07:18 And I think both the businesses are growing at a rapid clip.
07:21 I think one should stay, remain invested.
07:23 And I feel the fair value of the business at the current juncture is close to 220 to
07:28 230 rupees.
07:29 If somebody has got an horizon of 6 to 12.
07:31 All right.
07:32 Next question we have on the counter, Vari Renewable Technologies.
07:36 And this is from Abhishek.
07:38 And Vaishali, Abhishek is asking about the two-month target on this particular counter.
07:44 The BSE stock, right?
07:47 Yes.
07:48 The one which is 2200, that's the one?
07:52 Yes.
07:53 Okay.
07:54 So I think the stock is already surged pretty high.
07:57 I won't have any view for now.
07:59 Continue holding because there is no sign of exhaustion still if I am looking at the
08:04 larger term time frame.
08:06 But keep a trailing stock loss and continue holding because this can go towards 3000.
08:10 Okay.
08:11 Fair point.
08:12 That's for you on Vari.
08:13 Coming back to you Vaishali in this next one, not a specific stock, but Geeta is wondering
08:17 whether you can suggest two stocks that you can buy today.
08:21 And she's not really provided a time frame, but I'm assuming that she has a relatively
08:25 shorter term time frame.
08:27 Shorter term.
08:28 So I would say, well, HDFC Bank to start with, because that is what is supporting Bank Nifty
08:34 today.
08:35 So with the stop loss of today's low, 1480, I would say buy the stock.
08:40 It can go towards 1530, 1540 in a day or two.
08:45 And the other one to my liking, well, is I would go for ITC.
08:51 ITC is a safe bet at these levels, 423, 424, stop loss of 415 and target of 440.
09:00 All right.
09:01 The next question is from Jaya Krishnan from Coricor.
09:04 And so they've given a couple of counters here and they want to pick two out of them.
09:11 Sunny, tell us which one would you suggest from a medium term horizon and a good stock
09:17 to enter right now.
09:19 So ABB, Bajaj Auto, Godrej and Dixon.
09:22 Yeah, so I think I would like to go ahead with Bajaj Auto, especially when the numbers
09:28 are already out and we know the company has reported a decent set of numbers.
09:32 And the outlook also continues to remain robust, both on two wheeler, three wheeler as well
09:37 as electric vehicle space and our fair value of the company is close to 10,200 rupees.
09:44 So I think Bajaj Auto is the one stock which I would like to bet my money on.
09:49 And sorry if you can repeat all the remaining three names.
09:52 There's Dixon, ABB and there was one more.
09:58 Can you pull up the question?
09:59 Yeah, ABB, but yeah, Godrej properties.
10:00 Yeah.
10:01 So among the remaining one, then I would like to go ahead with them.
10:07 I mean, it's slightly difficult to get because again, all the remaining three stocks are
10:12 trading at a relatively expensive valuation.
10:15 But I would like to go ahead with Godrej properties, looking at a very robust provisional number.
10:20 The company has reported for the quarter four.
10:23 And but again, I would recommend a buy on dip strategy.
10:26 We have already seen a huge run up in all the real estate stocks.
10:30 So buy on dip will be the right strategy if somebody wants to enter into Godrej properties
10:34 from medium to long term.
10:36 I'm sure everyone will appreciate and I certainly do that you are saying Kozhikode much better
10:41 than you did.
10:42 Well, I'm a fast learner.
10:43 All right, let's talk about the next question is coming from Swaminathan from New Delhi.
10:48 And he's asking about Amara Raja, which he bought at level 744 and he's been holding
10:52 since 2022.
10:55 And he's wondering whether it can reclaim all time highs.
10:59 And this is given the potential in the space.
11:01 And he's pointing out the transition from ICE, which is internal combustion to EVs and
11:07 also the battery storage space.
11:10 Sunny, so therefore, it's a question based on the fundamentals.
11:13 Would you say that it's a stock that you should hold on to?
11:16 And what are the prospects for Amara Raja?
11:18 Yeah, again, looking at the way recently we have seen the deal which has been stuck between
11:24 Exide and Hyundai and Kia.
11:26 There's an expectation that one of the large VM again may try to enter into agreement with
11:33 Amara Raja for exploration of lithium ion battery for especially for electric vehicle.
11:39 And I think after a long time, both these stocks are coming off after a long period
11:44 of consolidation, even in terms of the stock price as well as in terms of the earning growth
11:50 potential.
11:51 So I think one can continue to hold Amara Raja in a long term portfolio with an expected
11:56 upside of 15 to 20 percent over the period of next 12 to 18 months.
12:01 The next counter we're talking about is Axis Bank.
12:03 This one's from Chandra from Bangalore.
12:05 They've bought shares at 996 with a time horizon of one month.
12:09 But Shalini, now the stock seems to be in a bit of a downturn in the last one month.
12:14 But from here on, do you see it touching the target?
12:18 I think they're going for a target of 1100.
12:19 Do you see that happening in the next one month?
12:22 Well, actually, I still see, I mean, further downslide cannot be ruled out because the
12:28 projected downslide comes to around 950.
12:30 So hence I would ask to accumulate because we are pretty much close to the support levels.
12:35 And yes, if you see a good bounce market taking a U-turn from here on, why not?
12:40 This can retest again 11 months.
12:43 Okay.
12:44 Let's take the next one.
12:45 And it's from Jyoti and he's asking about Deepak Fertilizers and another stock, JM Financial.
12:52 Which he's bought at 640 as well as 106 rupees respectively.
12:58 He's looking at the next four to five years.
13:00 So it's a long term time frame.
13:01 Sunny, what do you make of this?
13:03 Yeah.
13:04 So for Deepak Fertilizer, I would recommend to hold on to the stock, although we have
13:10 seen that entire agrochemical space has been under trouble since last six to eight quarters.
13:16 And I think with the recent commissioning of the backward integration for the ammonia
13:20 plant, I think the company is well placed to deliver a healthy growth, especially in
13:25 the backdrop of healthy expectation on normal monsoon, which will come in from June.
13:31 So I think this reward is favorable at the current juncture.
13:34 Nothing much to do as far as Deepak Fertilizer is concerned.
13:38 Moving on to JM Financial, again, JM Financial, we have seen some regulatory action against
13:43 the company pertaining to the IPO funding and so on and so forth.
13:48 But what I feel again here, all the negativity is in the price.
13:52 Maybe next three to six months is a time where the stock doesn't move much.
13:58 But if you look at the pedigree and the kind of business with the company has built, I
14:02 think, and the way capital market is flourishing in India, I think long term growth prospects
14:06 continue to remain healthy.
14:08 But till the time this regulatory action is behind us, maybe in the next three to six
14:13 months, the stock may continue to hover in a certain range.
14:17 All right.
14:18 Thank you, Shreya.
14:19 Next question is from Satya.
14:20 And Vaishali, this one's for you.
14:22 However, now the time frame is one to two years, but they've given a couple of names
14:27 and they want to pick some of them as, essentially, is it the right time to enter into any of
14:36 these stocks?
14:37 They are PNB Housing, Glan Pharma and Man Infra.
14:40 Let's just have a look.
14:44 Sure.
14:45 So PNB Housing, the one which is 749?
14:49 Yes.
14:50 Yes.
14:51 That's right.
14:52 Yes.
14:53 I think technically it is very well placed.
14:56 It's getting into momentum.
14:57 I mean, there is a trend formation.
15:00 So as long as 720 levels are held on as prominent support, and once the stock moves above 780,
15:07 because right now it's going through a consolidation.
15:09 So keeping this level in mind, above 780, it holds and confirms a further strength.
15:15 So I would say this one can go for a buy at these levels.
15:19 And the other one you want is Glan Pharma.
15:22 Yes.
15:23 So Glan, in fact, it is looking quite positive because we've seen a good consolidation.
15:28 I mean, right after making a high of 2200 to currently at 1700 odd levels, I think this
15:34 is ready for a takeoff.
15:36 This level looks attractive because it's also close to the 200 day moving average support.
15:40 So one can buy at these levels and look for a target of 2000 and higher.
15:45 All right.
15:46 All right.
15:47 We have to slip into a very quick break.
15:48 We've got an interesting question that will come up on the other side.
15:51 And in fact, if you've got questions, keep them ready.
15:53 We'll be back before you know it.
15:54 Thank you.
16:10 Thank you.
16:34 Thank you.
17:02 Thank you.
17:30 Thank you.
17:58 Welcome back.
17:59 Welcome back to Ask Profit.
18:00 And I promised it was an interesting question.
18:01 This is from Sagar.
18:03 And the question is for you, Sunny.
18:05 He's asking about Voltamp transformers as well as transformers and rectifiers India.
18:11 He's holding on to both.
18:13 He's got a nice chunk of Voltamp from levels of 1002 and the stock is currently trading
18:19 at 10000 plus levels.
18:21 And he's also got TRIL, which is transformers and rectifiers from levels of 63.
18:27 And the stock is currently at 655.
18:29 So he's seeing a 10x jump in his holding.
18:33 What is a short to medium term outlook on the sector as well as the companies?
18:36 Any expectations on the results side if you have coverage?
18:40 And also, do you like any other stocks in the power ancillary space, not the traditional
18:44 power companies like NTPC and Adani Power because he already holds them?
18:49 Yeah, so first of all, congratulations for bagging a 10x higher in both TRIL and Voltamp.
18:57 And again, the entire transformer as an industry continues to look very bullish.
19:03 The reason being that the way capacity has been expanded both on thermal as well as renewable
19:08 energy side, it is expected that the demand for transformer will continue to remain healthy.
19:14 As we go from close to 250 gigawatt of capacity to 400 gigawatt by 2030, the transformer and
19:20 rectifier as an industry will continue to do well.
19:25 And I would recommend to continue to hold on to both these stocks with an investment
19:31 horizon of at least 3 to 5 years.
19:32 So even at 10000 rupees Voltamp, market cap is close to 10000 crore only.
19:37 So equity base is very small.
19:39 And TRIL, which is a transformer and rectifier India, we have seen a very good turnaround
19:45 in the business.
19:46 And at the same time, the order book is very robust and I would recommend to continue to
19:49 hold on to TRIL also.
19:52 And in terms of other recommendations in the power ancillary, I think cable is one of the
19:59 space which will be one of the beneficiary of the expansion of the power network.
20:04 So companies like Polycab and RR Cable, these are the two names which comes to mind if somebody
20:09 want to invest in the power ancillary space from medium to long term.
20:14 Next question is on Vedanta.
20:17 This one is from Ramakrishna from Vijayawada and they bought the shares at 233.
20:22 It is currently trading at around 388 rupees.
20:27 From a shorter term perspective, Vaishali, the question here is should you book some
20:31 profits, should you keep holding on to it?
20:33 Now, it has been doing quite well in the last couple of months.
20:37 That pace has kind of picked up in the stock now.
20:41 Would you suggest taking some profits off the table or would you suggest holding on
20:44 to it?
20:45 So, of course, if it is for a trading perspective, I would say keep a stock loss of 370.
20:52 But if it is for longer term and does not mind the whipsaws, then I think continue holding
20:57 for a target of 450, 480.
21:01 Okay, Cupid is the next stock and we have got a question from Gurjot.
21:04 He is writing in from Chandigarh and he has got a view of the next 4 to 5 years.
21:08 I am not very certain as to whether he has bought or not Sunny.
21:12 But do you have coverage and would you suggest holding on or buying fresh at these levels
21:16 for the next 4 to 5 years?
21:17 Sorry, Alex, I missed the name of the company.
21:20 We are talking about Cupid, Cupid Limited.
21:22 Cupid, so Cupid again not seen much in detail.
21:28 But what I would suggest is that there are many other better consumer play which are
21:35 available in the market.
21:36 Case in point, companies like Vector Food or Senco Gold, so any company from the discretionary
21:44 consumption side can be on the radar.
21:46 Sorry, I am unable to give my view on Cupid.
21:49 That is understandable.
21:50 All right.
21:51 The next counter we are talking about is Angel One.
21:54 This one is from Pratik and they are writing in from Greece.
21:57 They bought the stock at 3200, slightly elevated levels, Sunny.
22:01 We saw the Q4 results, pretty good Q4 results.
22:05 Brokerages continue to remain positive on this counter.
22:08 From a longer term perspective, they are clearly sitting on some amount of loss here.
22:13 But from a longer term perspective, what are your expectations from a stock like Angel
22:17 One?
22:18 Angel One, very robust set of number for March quarter and what I feel is that as we were
22:26 discussing for one of our earlier questions also, that capital market as a theme is looking
22:32 very good.
22:33 The kind of demand account addition which we are seeing to the ecosystem is likely to
22:39 give a lot of business, especially on equity cash as well as ethano side.
22:45 And a lot of ancillary business which Angel One is building around that ecosystem.
22:49 So Angel One is migrating from a pure in-play company to the super app company wherein it
22:55 will be distributing a mutual fund insurance product.
22:59 At the same time, they have themselves established one asset management company.
23:03 They are going to distribute loans also at the same time.
23:08 They are themselves venturing into the NBFC business.
23:11 So I think long term outlook continues to remain robust in Angel One.
23:16 And it's a clear story of migration from a pure play broking company to the financial
23:20 conglomerate having a presence across multiple products.
23:22 So I would recommend to stay and remain invested in the company from a medium to a big company.
23:27 All right.
23:28 The hold is the view on Angel One.
23:29 The company posted results not too long back.
23:31 Let's talk about Abhinandan Prasad's question and he is asking about a stock that has run
23:36 up quite significantly over the last 12 months or so.
23:39 And I am talking about Suzlon.
23:41 He is asking though why it is so reactive when it comes to news.
23:47 Well, understandably it has been volatile in the recent past.
23:51 He has bought at levels of 36, 37 and he is holding on at these levels which is very close
23:56 to 40.
23:57 Vaishali, the question is should he hold with the expectation of upside or should he move
24:03 to something else at this point?
24:05 I think right now it's looking quite positive.
24:08 It's quite promising that we can see 46, 47.
24:11 But I think keep a stop loss of his buying price 37 because that happens to be the crucial
24:16 support also.
24:17 And I guess the results are also round the corner.
24:20 So once we see the result and we see how the movement takes place, technically it's quite
24:24 well placed.
24:25 37 should act as a stop loss.
24:27 All right.
24:28 Thank you so much Sunny and Vaishali for joining us today.
24:31 Unfortunately, we are completely out of time on this edition of Ask Profit.
24:35 And viewers, thanks for tuning in today.
24:38 We will try and take more questions.
24:40 If we were not able to take your questions today, we will take them on Monday.
24:44 So do tune in and keep writing to us and don't go anywhere.
24:48 We have lots more lined up on Indie Baby Profit.
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27:25 If we want that those who are running our government
27:30 who make our lives different, they must consider us as relevant.
27:35 And we become relevant if we cast our votes.
27:39 I have always been voting.
27:41 And I have actually quite looked forward to the task of voting.
27:46 And I certainly plan to vote as long as I'm able to vote in every election in the future,
27:53 including the current one.
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28:02 Benchmark trade lower amid weak global cues.
28:17 Sensex above 70 to 300, while the Nifty trades around 21,900.
28:27 IT major emphasis falls as much as 2% after reporting subdued revenue guidance for FY25 companies.
28:34 2024 headcount declines by over 25,000.
28:38 And voting for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections begins as many as 102 parliamentary constituencies are polling today.
28:48 The counting of votes will be on June 4.
28:54 In tit-for-tat exchanges continue between Iran-Israel.
28:58 Reports suggest Israel launched a strike on Iranian soil today morning, raising fears of a widening conflict across Middle East.
29:08 Meanwhile, Iranian official denies the report of missile attack, calls it a false alarm.
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29:25 Hello and welcome.
29:29 This is Hot Money.
29:30 I'm Agam Akhil.
29:31 And in this show, we take you through all the stocks which have been the flavor of the season and also the day.
29:36 But before we take a look at all those stocks, a quick look at the markets, which are currently consolidating.
29:42 At least that's how it's been over the past, well, half an hour to 45 minutes.
29:47 And there's been a gradual up move as far as markets are concerned after a very, very weak start to the day.
29:53 And at the moment, we are looking at the Nifty advance, well, down by just 0.3%.
29:57 Remember, at one point in time, it was down, well, well over 200 points.
30:02 And at the moment, it is shedding just about 70-odd points.
30:05 So there has been a gradual recovery.
30:07 The question really is that where can we expect a little bit more strength to come in?
30:13 Are markets looking to shrug off all that is happening in West Asia?
30:17 Or can we expect more weakness to come through?
30:20 Of course, at the moment, a lot of factors have changed.
30:23 And the advance-decline ratio as well, which was, well, incredibly wide between advances and declines,
30:32 has possibly narrowed down, as you can see on your screen there.
30:37 We still have more declines as compared to advances.
30:39 But that gulf is not as wide as what it was earlier on in the morning.
30:44 And even in terms of the Nifty, it made an intraday low of well below the mark of 21.800.
30:52 In fact, 21,777 to be precise.
30:56 It is now well over 21.900 at the moment as we speak.
31:00 So there is a recovery of sorts underway at the moment.
31:04 But you never know how the last one hour of trade can pan out.