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01:47Hi, thanks so much for joining in.
01:48You're watching Ask Profit on NDTV Profit
01:50and my name is Alex Mathew.
01:51The name of the show is Ask Profit
01:53and therefore it is geared towards getting you answers
01:56to all of your stock-related questions
01:58and to that end, you see the number on your screen,
02:01that is where you send all of your questions to us,
02:03whether it's short-term technical in nature
02:05or long-term fundamental, we've got you covered
02:08and we will take that up in just a bit.
02:10Remember, if you're tuning in for the first time
02:12and if you're writing in for the first time,
02:14let us know who you are, your name,
02:17and where you're tuning in from.
02:19Let's first take a look at where the markets are
02:22as things stand right now
02:23and we've seen a bit of a capitulation in trade today.
02:26After opening more or less flat
02:28and in fact spending a very brief moment in the green,
02:31you have the Nifty 50 that's currently trading
02:33with cuts of about 250 points or about a percent or so.
02:37We've broken below the 25,000 mark in trade today.
02:41The broader market is also losing ground.
02:43In fact, the mid-cap index is down,
02:45it's about nine-tenths of a percent lower at this juncture
02:49and you have the small-cap index
02:50that's down about 0.7% or thereabouts.
02:54Let's take a look at what's contributing to the fall
02:56for the Nifty 50
02:57and you have the likes of Reliance Industries
02:59that is leading the declines,
03:02at least in terms of the weightage, of course.
03:04You have SBI, which we will talk about in just a bit,
03:07which is also losing ground, ICICI Bank and Infosys.
03:11Among the sectors, of course,
03:13just based on the names that I've talked about,
03:15you will know that the Nifty Bank
03:17is under a bit of pressure today
03:20and that is evident based on what I've already spoken about.
03:23The PSU Banking Index down quite substantially,
03:26close to 2.9%,
03:28largely on the back of the underperformance
03:30by State Bank of India,
03:32but oil and gas under pressure.
03:33In fact, most sectors are, in fact,
03:35or all sectors are, in fact, in the green at this juncture
03:38and you've seen a bit of a spike in the India VIX as well.
03:41That's par for the course.
03:42In the red, apologies.
03:44I'm so used to saying in the green that I said that again.
03:47All of the sectors in the red right now.
03:49But let's focus in on State Bank of India
03:51because it is losing ground
03:53and this is on the back of a note
03:56that came in not too long back.
03:58This is by Morgan Stanley
04:00that is talking about pressure on ROIs.
04:03We've got Harsh joining in
04:05to tell you about the fine print there
04:07and what exactly is being said.
04:09Harsh, over to you. Morning.
04:11Good morning, Alex.
04:12Well, yes, under pressure,
04:14what Goldman Sachs suggests in its note
04:18is that your ROAs are contracting
04:21and now probably we've hit a top when ROAs is concerned.
04:25They're expecting ROAs to hit sub-1% FY26 onwards.
04:31What will lead to this?
04:32First off, loan growth.
04:34They believe deposit growth is weak
04:36and that will cap loan growth as well going forward.
04:39So that's the first piece.
04:40Second is credit costs.
04:41They believe credit costs have bottomed.
04:43Agri, MSME as well as unsecured
04:46will start to normalize
04:48and that will start to have an impact on ROAs going forward.
04:51So these are the two big impact areas
04:53which will therefore lead to a sub-1% ROA
04:57starting FY26.
04:59Currently valuations or rather
05:01before the start of trade today
05:03valuations were roughly 1.4 times price to book.
05:06They had or rather Goldman Sachs had a view
05:09that valuations ought to be at 1.2 times.
05:12So in any case, they were cautious on it.
05:14But what they've now done is
05:15they've reduced their target multiple
05:18to one time price to book.
05:20And therefore, they've reduced the target price
05:22at 9% downside.
05:24They've downgraded it to a sell
05:26and that's one of the likely reasons
05:29why SBI is under pressure today.
05:31Thanks so much Harsh for getting us those details.
05:33In fact, speaking of valuations,
05:35we had an exclusive chat
05:37or rather my colleague Vishwanath Nair
05:39had an exclusive chat with the new chairman
05:42of State Bank of India, C.S. Shetty.
05:44And he had to say a variety of things
05:46but he also spoke about the valuations.
05:48Here's what he said when he said that
05:50he thinks that it's actually lower
05:54than what it should be.
05:57Still valuation, we have lot much
06:00valuation left to be recognized.
06:02If you see the price to book value
06:04of our bank and when compared to the other peers,
06:08the potential what and the consistency
06:11of the results what we have provided
06:13and the shareholder value what we have created,
06:15I think I'm sure we deserve a better valuation
06:20than what we have today.
06:22All right, on that note,
06:23let's get our experts on for today.
06:25We've got Gaurang Shah, Head of Investment
06:28or Head Investment Strategist
06:30at GEOGIT Financial Services
06:31and Rajat Bose, a Semi-Registered Research Analyst.
06:34Thank you so much to the both of you
06:35for taking the time.
06:36I will come to you first Gaurang
06:38on State Bank of India.
06:41Hopefully you will get a chance
06:43to listen into the conversation
06:45with C.S. Shetty that plays out at 12.30 today.
06:48But he said some very interesting things,
06:50part of which is that they're not going to be okay
06:52with growth at any cost.
06:54And so they're not running after high-cost deposits.
06:56What do you make of today's move?
06:59At what point would you say
07:00accumulation is a good strategy?
07:04Thank you, Alex, for having me on the show.
07:06A morning to all of you all,
07:07including my good friend, Rajat Bose.
07:10Well, firstly, a disclosure,
07:12I think it'd be prudent to give.
07:14We have fundamentally high coverage
07:16on State Bank of India.
07:17And our targets are somewhere close
07:19to about 880 to 900 from a long-term point of view.
07:23Short-term challenges are there, definitely.
07:26There is no denying about that,
07:28especially mobilization of funds via deposits.
07:31That's going to be challenging
07:33for not only State Bank of India,
07:35but most of the banks by and large,
07:37be it private or public.
07:39In terms of the outlook that we share,
07:42well, we are extremely optimistic
07:44with respect to the credit demand
07:47that is likely to work further,
07:50which will translate into margin expansion
07:53and, of course, interest incomes
07:54looking much more positive.
07:56Then, of course,
07:57turning into more profitability numbers
08:00on the higher side.
08:02If you ask me at current levels,
08:03well, given the fundamental coverage,
08:05I would say that start accumulating at these levels.
08:08Don't put all your money at one time.
08:10But definitely a staggered buying
08:13and increasing your investment
08:15in State Bank of India
08:17is something that we are extremely positive about.
08:20All right.
08:21On that note, let's start with the questions.
08:23And incidentally, the first question
08:25that I'm taking today
08:26is to do with State Bank of India.
08:27And Rahul Sharma is asking,
08:29at what price should I buy State Bank of India?
08:32Rajat, this is a great time for me to come to you.
08:35The stock is under pressure today.
08:37What would be a good level
08:38based on the technicals to start buying in,
08:41based on the fundamentals,
08:42Gaurang says,
08:43you can start nibbling right now?
08:46Yeah, I would say that
08:47since it has broken down
08:48below 9, 20 and 50-day moving average,
08:52so the last major support level
08:54is the 200-day moving average
08:57and which is at 763, I think.
09:00That should be the level one should aim for.
09:03But I would like to say one thing.
09:05If what Harsh just reported
09:09that some FII is expecting
09:12that return on assets will go below one,
09:15in that case, should we buy banks?
09:19That is the biggest question
09:21because so far as I have read
09:24and I've heard from FIIs
09:26that they prefer return on assets above 1.75.
09:30If that is the case,
09:31then at least for the leading banks.
09:34If that is the case,
09:35then should we buy SBI at this current level
09:38or should we wait?
09:39But suppose if it were to fall below 763,
09:43which is the 200-day exponential moving average,
09:46major support will be found between 700 and 680.
09:50At that price level,
09:52I would say whatever be
09:54that return on assets projection,
09:56at 680, it's definitely a very good buy.
10:00But at 763, one may try once more.
10:03If it doesn't show more weakness,
10:06then there would be a bounce back.
10:08But in that bounce back,
10:09it needs to take out 840.
10:11If it doesn't,
10:12then there will be problems again.
10:14Fair point.
10:15All right.
10:16That's a comprehensive view
10:17on State Bank of India for all of you, in fact.
10:20Sandeep from Bengaluru is asking the next question.
10:23He's bought 1,994 shares of Gale
10:26at a price of 229 on the 5th of September, 2024.
10:30And he's wondering what the outlook is
10:32for the next few months.
10:33He's not specified how many months,
10:35but he's experiencing a bit of a loss.
10:40Rajat, on the technicals,
10:42what would you suggest that he do?
10:44See, Gale has support around 219 to about 215.
10:49If that gets taken out,
10:51then it will go to sub 200 levels,
10:53something like 195,
10:56where the 200 exponential moving average
11:00is located at the moment.
11:03So at current levels,
11:06one should not be buying.
11:08And if one has already bought,
11:10put a stop loss below, say, 220.
11:14All right.
11:15That's a view on Gale.
11:17Let's talk about Reliance Industries next.
11:19And it is under pressure in trade today.
11:22We've got Anvesh from Andhra Pradesh
11:24who's looking for a relatively short-term view.
11:26He's asking hold, add or sell.
11:28He's bought nine shares at a price of 3,034.
11:31If he's already holding Gorang,
11:33we've got a confirmation that the board has approved
11:36the bonus share issue.
11:37Incidentally, not on this platform,
11:39but I've actually gotten a lot of questions
11:41whether you should buy in the context
11:43of the bonus share issue.
11:44Not that it changes life too much.
11:47Basically, you'll have the price adjust
11:49as per the ratio that is decided.
11:53So what would you say about Reliance Industries?
11:57So 3,400 is the target, Alex,
12:01on the long-term point of view.
12:03And what I have witnessed is some large-cap names
12:06like Reliance and the L&Ts of the world.
12:08Of course, I'm not making any comparison over here.
12:11Once they go X bonus,
12:13then after a couple of years,
12:16that is maybe about a year and a half or two,
12:19the prices come back to come bonus levels.
12:21So that's the kind of wealth
12:23that some of these large-cap names create.
12:26There was a lot of announcement in the AGM also,
12:29and we heard all of that,
12:31and we've dissected all of that.
12:33I think because of the markets being under pressure,
12:36by default, large-cap will also come under pressure.
12:39But we remain optimistic on Reliance Industries
12:42from a long-term point of view.
12:44Ashok, Buildcon is the next counter that we're looking at,
12:47and I'm coming to you on this one, Rajat.
12:49It's currently trading at 273 or thereabouts,
12:53up about 2% in trade today.
12:55We've got Sushila, who's riding in from Bellary,
12:58who's asking whether this is the right price
13:00to enter the stock.
13:01What's the view?
13:03Well, today it has given a very stellar move.
13:07In fact, it has moved up from 227 low
13:11to about 284 high and currently ruling at 273.
13:15So definitely not, because a few days back,
13:19a similar kind of situation happened,
13:21and at that point of time, it went up to 271
13:24from a low level of 209 on a single day.
13:27But over the next four sessions, it went down to about 235.
13:32So currently at 273, you should not be buying,
13:37but if you get it on a rebound,
13:39I mean, there will be some kind of a corrective move
13:42again on the next few sessions.
13:45If you get it around 250, 260 within this range,
13:49then buy at least you will have some cushion.
13:52Otherwise, if you buy at these levels,
13:55because the stock has moved up from 80 to 272
14:00in about a year's time.
14:05So it has already moved up quite a bit.
14:08So one should be a bit careful of buying these stocks
14:12at these current levels.
14:14That's a fair point.
14:15It's one of several stocks that has doubled
14:18in the year-to-date period.
14:20In fact, if you can pull up the 2024 chart,
14:22you will see that that is in fact the case.
14:25Let's talk about Bajaj Finance next,
14:27and it is a question from Jigar.
14:29He's writing in from Ahmedabad,
14:31and he's bought at levels of 7159.59, very specific.
14:36It is currently below the current market price,
14:39so he's making some money on this trade,
14:41but he's got a long-term view.
14:43He's got 108 shares.
14:45Gaurang, would you say that this is one candidate
14:48where you continue to add to your kitty
14:50over a period of time?
14:51Some comments have been made about worries
14:55about unsecured lending,
14:57and they've moved past the regulatory issues
15:00and hurdles that they've had more or less
15:02hasn't affected their assets
15:04under management growth too much.
15:06Would you say that it's still a buy at this juncture?
15:09Well, if you are in for the long term,
15:11I would say definitely hold, Alex,
15:13and I think the trigger for Bajaj Group companies
15:16giving this kind of momentum,
15:18I'm talking about extremely short term,
15:20is because of the Bajaj Housing Finance IPO.
15:23That's creating a little bit of more uptake
15:26and push on the stocks,
15:28but from a long-term point of view,
15:30what you were mentioning, Alex,
15:31about unsecured credits and exposures,
15:33I think it's all done and dusted.
15:34Whatever necessary steps that need to be taken
15:37post the regulatory advice has been put in place.
15:40Their reach as far as semi-urban and rural India
15:43is concerned is extremely, extremely strong,
15:45and I think they've got some great network also
15:50to reach out to people.
15:51So from a long-term point of view,
15:53hold on, and if you get this,
15:55I think it will be a prudent thing
15:56to add to the stock from a long-term point of view.
15:58Okay, fair point.
15:59Ashok from Guntur is asking this next question.
16:03Incidentally, do you know what Guntur is famous for?
16:06I'll tell you after the answer to this next question.
16:09We've got a question on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories.
16:12He's asking whether it can be bought at the current price.
16:15Rajat, on the technicals, would it be a buy?
16:18And you want to hazard a guess
16:20as to what Guntur is famous for?
16:26No, not really.
16:29Okay, I'll take the answer on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories then.
16:34I would say that this has,
16:37I mean, from a technical point of view,
16:39there is a sell signal.
16:42Sell signal in the sense that 50 moving average
16:46has been broken, 920, all had been broken,
16:49and there had been, say, about two and a half months
16:54kind of distribution, and after that,
16:56this fall is happening.
16:58So one should wait.
17:00I mean, if one is patient, one is likely to get it around,
17:03say, 6,400, then put a stop loss below 6,150 and buy,
17:08but not at current levels.
17:10And if one has already purchased,
17:12I would say you better get out.
17:15Okay.
17:16Guntur, by the way, in Andhra Pradesh,
17:18is known for spicy food,
17:20and specifically the Guntur chili,
17:22which is seen as the benchmark for chili prices
17:25in several parts of the country.
17:27Let's talk about Bhrigu's question next.
17:30He's got Vodafone Idea.
17:32And by the way, Bhrigu, tuning in from Punjab,
17:36Satriyakaal is what I should say.
17:3925,000 shares of Vodafone Idea
17:42bought at a price of 15 rupees, relatively higher.
17:45He's in a loss, and this is the danger.
17:48Gaurang, on the fundamentals,
17:50would it make sense to hold on to this?
17:52It is a high-risk strategy.
17:55So, Alex, before I give a disclosure,
18:00I would say that, you know,
18:03this stock is only for those who have
18:05extremely, extremely, extremely high-risk appetite
18:08because it is a very high-risk,
18:10high-return kind of stock.
18:12We do have fundamental coverage on Vodafone,
18:15and we have targets of 17 rupees as of now.
18:20I think the stock is under pressure
18:22because of certain reports,
18:23which has come out this morning
18:25with a much, much, much lower target price.
18:28But what we feel is that the company
18:30has managed to garner funds, reduce debt,
18:33and they are doing something
18:35which is auguring well for the growth of the company.
18:39But at the same time, not to forget,
18:42there are a lot of retail investors
18:43who are stuck into this particular stock
18:46at various price points,
18:48and any rally about 18 to 20 rupees on Vodafone
18:53will be met with selling pressure
18:55from a short- to medium-term point of view.
18:57So you need to have both aspects in mind.
18:59One is extremely, extremely high-risk appetite
19:02and a very longish kind of a time measure.
19:04Okay, fair point.
19:05Ola Electric, I'm actually coming back to you on this one, Gaurang,
19:08because we obviously are not going to have enough data
19:11for a technical check on this.
19:12The stock is trading a little bit under pressure today.
19:14Of course, today is when the anchor lock-in opens up,
19:18and so perhaps there's a little bit of selling.
19:20It's down about 3.5% or thereabouts.
19:22We've got a question from Dr. Mahesh.
19:25He's asking, is this the right time to buy the share?
19:28What's the view, Gaurang?
19:3076 was the floor, Alex,
19:33for the shares getting allotted
19:35to those who had subscribed for the IPO.
19:38After listing, for initial,
19:41sometimes the listing was a little bit subdued.
19:45Then it suddenly got flavor
19:47and the stock rallied to 157.40,
19:50which is the all-time high.
19:52There are a couple of things.
19:53We had issued a subscribe note on Ola Electric
19:55from a long-term point of view.
19:57And the problem here is, Alex,
19:59that 1,500 crore loss on the balance sheet,
20:02which will take a pretty long period
20:04and a very sound business strategy
20:06to come out in black and then into the blue or in the green.
20:10The 15th August launch of Electric Bike
20:13will be available to those who have booked it,
20:16possibly next year, post-Diwali or something.
20:19During that time, there's going to be a lot of competition
20:21that is expected to come into the market.
20:23Along with that, the Gigasil factory production
20:25is something that we will be keeping a close eye on.
20:28So if you ask me at current levels,
20:30keeping the IPO note as a base,
20:34start accumulating, don't go all out,
20:36but start accumulating at current levels.
20:39And if it has to slip closer to 100 or sub-100,
20:42then you should add on to it more.
20:44But please have two and a half, three year kind of a time horizon
20:47and keep your eyes on these earnings
20:49because that's going to be very, very crucial.
20:51All right. Absolutely.
20:52And watch the volume data as well.
20:54You will start seeing more details on that.
20:57Biju from Wayanad has got the next question.
21:00Goldiam International.
21:01I hope I'm saying the name of this company right.
21:04Maybe you can say it as Goldiam International.
21:07500 shares bought at levels of 137.
21:10The question is, should I book profits or hold on at this juncture?
21:15Profits are close to a lakh.
21:17Rajat, would you hold?
21:21I would suggest a sell
21:22because this stock has already moved up quite a bit
21:27and the moving averages are very well stretched.
21:30Chances are that you will see a sharp correction coming
21:34at least down to about 280 levels.
21:37So why not book profits?
21:39One is making good money.
21:41Fair point.
21:42Sumit has got this next question.
21:44He's asking about India Mart.
21:46I believe this is India Mart Intermesh.
21:48Let's try and pull up the chart.
21:49Yeah.
21:50So it's currently trading at 3,018 or 19 or thereabouts
21:53and he's bought at levels of 3,030.
21:56He's got a one to two month timeframe.
21:58So shorter term timeframe, Rajat.
22:00On the charts, how does it look?
22:03If it manages to get past, say, something like 3,200 to about,
22:07yeah, 3,200 is the key level to watch out for on the upside.
22:12If it manages to get past that,
22:14then you will see it going up to something like 3,350, 3,400.
22:19But if one is buying now, then put a stop loss below 2,900.
22:24Not before that, you can put a stop loss
22:29because the 20-day moving average is around that level.
22:32So that should be your stop loss.
22:34One can buy, but it needs to take out 3,200.
22:38If that gets taken out, then 3,350 to about 3,400 will be the time.
22:43Okay.
22:44Let's pull up Dixon Tech because this is next counter that we're talking about.
22:47It's currently trading at about 12,240 or thereabouts.
22:52And we've got Jayakrishnan from Kodikode in Kerala
22:55who's bought at levels of 13,407.
22:58Slightly elevated.
23:01What would you do with this on the fundamentals?
23:04Gaurang, do you have fundamental coverage and would you hold on at this juncture?
23:08Well, so currently we don't have the coverage on Dixon Tech,
23:11but let me say one thing over here.
23:13The stock has rallied in the past one year to a great extent.
23:16I think it's one of the top performers.
23:18In terms of the business, well, there is no peer competition
23:22that I can possibly compare it with as far as the listed universe is concerned.
23:26One of the greatest beneficiaries with respect to the PLI scheme
23:29that the government has announced.
23:32Other than that, I mean, the business is good.
23:34Possibly earnings will translate into more visibility.
23:38Okay.
23:39All right.
23:40Harsh from New Delhi has got this next question.
23:42Avantel is the name of the counter.
23:45Just checking, Gaurang, do you have coverage?
23:48I'm sorry, what's the company?
23:49Avantel.
23:51No, I'm sorry.
23:52Okay.
23:53So from a longer term timeframe, Rajat, on the charts, he's bought at levels of 194.
23:59He's been holding for the long term.
24:02The stock currently at close to 175.
24:05Would you hold a sell at this juncture?
24:08I would say the recent low I think is at 170 or 172.
24:18So put a stop loss below 169 and one can continue to hold on
24:23because it has been falling from 212 since listing
24:28and it has come down to the current levels after testing 170.
24:34So there is a possibility of a bounce back,
24:37but in that bounce back, it needs to take out 182 decisively.
24:41Unless it does that, there is not much hope.
24:45But if one is buying at current levels, then the stop loss should be below 1 second.
24:50Okay.
24:52I'm going to take the next question from Sudhir, and Sudhir is writing in from Bengaluru.
24:56He's asking about Orient Tech, which he's bought at levels of 335.
25:00He's wondering whether he should hold.
25:02Rajat, I'm coming back to you on this next one.
25:04Orient Tech currently trading at 304.
25:07He's bought at higher levels, 335 or thereabouts.
25:11Should he hold on and wait for his buy price?
25:16This is also a new listing.
25:19Okay, fair point.
25:20I'm going to try then.
25:22Gaurang, do you have enough data?
25:25No, I do not have enough data.
25:28I would rather pass this question to Gaurang.
25:31Fair point.
25:32Gaurang, do you have any view on Orient Tech?
25:34Well, as an IPO note, we have come out with buy coverage on Orient Tech.
25:42I think the range was 195 to 206.
25:45The business that we are into, of course, it's headquartered in Mumbai.
25:50It started in 1997.
25:52A pretty interesting play in terms of IT enabled services and the platforms and the verticals that it caters to.
26:02So if you've invested from a long-term point of view, keeping that IPO note as a base, stay invested from a long-term point of view.
26:09Okay.
26:10BPCL is the counter we're talking about next.
26:12And OMCs have been in focus all through the week on account of the fall in the crude oil prices.
26:16It's down about 1.6% in trade today.
26:19We've got Sai who's bought 700 shares at a price of 351, very close to the current market price.
26:26He's asking whether he should exit at this juncture.
26:31Just based on the overall market texture and picture, Rajat, what's the view of BPCL in the context of everything that's happening in the market?
26:43BPCL, right?
26:44Yes.
26:46Okay.
26:47I would say that BPCL is still maintaining its uptrend because the nine-day exponential moving average has been tested,
26:54but it is not breached on closing price basis over the last one month or so.
27:01So it is not the time to exit.
27:05I would say that you exit only if it falls below 345.
27:10Then it will become a sale.
27:13Otherwise, there is a possibility that you might get higher levels of, say, 360 to about 365.
27:19At that point of time, if you decide to sell, that would be fine.
27:24Interglobe Aviation is the next counter we're talking about.
27:27And we've got Sampath from Hyderabad who's bought at levels of 3,200.
27:31Stock is currently trading at very close to 4,800.
27:34Gaurav, on the fundamentals, would you hold on to this?
27:36What's the outlook and what are the prospects?
27:40Well, if I have time by my side, I would definitely advise him to hold on to it from a long-term point of view.
27:45Our targets are 4,900.
27:47These targets were set aside some time back.
27:50A big positive in terms of the connectivity that has improved, Alex, over the last couple of years
27:57under the Udaan 1 and Udaan 2 policy that the government unfolded.
28:01We've seen a large number of airports open up over the last 10 years.
28:05Many more are likely to get opened up, which will increase the connectivity.
28:08And they have also ordered for new aircrafts, which will increase the fleet size.
28:13From a long-term point of view, hold on.
28:15Hold on is a view on Interglobe Aviation.
28:19Plenty happening in the aviation space.
28:21On that note, we're completely out of time on this edition of Ask Prophet.
28:25Gaurang as well as Raja, thanks so much for taking the time.
28:28A pleasure having you on the show.
28:30Do stay tuned.
28:31Lots more coming up over the course of the day.
28:33Hope this conversation and this show helped you out.
28:35This is NDTV Prophet.
29:08Transcribed by ESO. Translated by —
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