#BajajFinance jumped over 7% as RBI lifted restrictions on eCOM and online digital Insta EMI Card products.
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00in intraday of course and you see the high point of the day early on in the session where you hit
00:05fresh life highs for the benchmark Nifty 50. At this juncture we are trading at very close
00:09to the low point of the day about half a percent lower. In fact, let us also pull up the broader
00:13market gauges and you see that those two are also down about a third of a percent at this point.
00:19You have the mid cap index on the screen right now, but you also have the small cap index that
00:23is losing about a third of a percent or so. And so understandably the market breadth is tilted
00:29in favor of the declines at this juncture. In fact, let us look at some of the key contributors
00:34on the Nifty 50 and you will notice that a couple of the big names are pulling the benchmark lower.
00:41Right on the top of the declines you see Reliance Industries as well as HDFC Bank that are
00:45contributing to most of the declines at this point. You also have Larsen and Toubro and TCS that are
00:51underperforming. At one point you had the Bajaj twins that were doing particularly well in trade
00:56today. Bajaj Finance as well as Bajaj FinServ. Bajaj Finance in fact, gaining at one point
01:02close to 7 percent, but it is now up just about 2.5 percent or 2.7 percent. In fact, let us pull
01:08up that intraday chart and see where it is currently trading, 2.7 percent or thereabouts
01:13is where Bajaj Finance is. And well, let us talk about that stock in more detail, but before we do
01:21I want to go across to the technical expert that we have today,
01:25Rajat Bose, Independent Research Analyst is joining me on the show. Rajat, what do you make
01:31of this recent drop and by recent I am talking about the last hour or so, we have seen quite
01:39a precipitous fall. What do you make of the change in the market breadth? Well, what I would say is
01:48that, see, in my recording, 22.734 was the projected Fibonacci resistance levels and we have
01:59seen that today as well as two trading sessions back, we have seen 7.83 high and today 7.94 high,
02:0722.794 I mean. So, these two highs are only 10 points from each other and unless you take out
02:2122.734, that day also it would not and today also it would not. So, it is showing weakness,
02:28but one heartening thing is that now it has come very close to 20-day moving average as well as
02:35the 9-day moving average, which is 9 days at 22.507 and 20-day moving average is at 22.455.
02:44So, this 50-point range is actually a very crucial support zone unless it is taken out on the
02:51downside. The Nifty in late session might again show a surge, but whether it would cross, if you
03:00ask me if it would cross the 22.794, I have doubts because this is a very critical resistance level.
03:10It is unlikely to be taken out in this manner. It would start from below and then during the day
03:1922.800 is taken out, then only we could have said that, yes, this could be a real breakout.
03:26And other thing is that there was a huge support from Bank Nifty on earlier occasions,
03:31but today already it has come down by 350 points, even the Nifty Junior, that is also 305 points
03:39down. So, there is some amount of profit taking and people are a bit apprehensive. So, while I do
03:47not expect it to fall below 22.450, at the same time, I do not even expect it to go beyond 22.800.
03:5622.800 is what you should watch out for in terms of levels, of course, the Nifty 50 trading just
04:02above that 22,500 mark at this point and again at the low point of the day. Let's talk about Bajaj
04:10Finance because this is according to me one of the stocks of the day despite the fact that is
04:16currently now significantly off the high point of the day, now up about 2.75% or thereabouts.
04:22Harsh is joining in to tell you about the implications of the regulatory update that
04:27we saw earlier today. The notification, of course, is that those consumer loans that
04:32were stopped, Harsh, are now restarted. What are the implications?
04:37The implication, Alex, and we have been saying this since the morning is not massive. Just in
04:44terms of AUM growth, what we are hearing from analysts as well as Citi putting out its note
04:51is that the growth number will just go to the upper band of the guidance. So 26 to 28% was the
04:58guidance. The fact that this has come in at the front end of the financial year will mean that
05:05growth will be more even through the year and therefore you will get a slightly higher growth
05:11number, just about 2% for this year. So maybe a 28% kind of a number AUM wise. But really,
05:21the significant positive here is the fact that Bajaj Finance has been able to resolve these RBI
05:26issues in a span of five months. When I'm looking at all past precedents, HDFC Bank,
05:32Paytm may be an outlier, but HDFC Bank, Diners Club, Mastercard, they've all taken anything
05:38between six to maybe even 15 months to resolve their issues with the regulator. This five-month
05:45kind of a shrunk timeline is a first off and that is the key positive. Of course, the other one
05:51being the sentiment positive on Bajaj Finance. The stock had taken a bit of a beating as well,
05:57probably the sentiment turning positive. So those two possibly the key factors here.
06:02In terms of impact on your P&L, the Q4 numbers profit before tax was impacted by 4% as a result
06:11of this particular embargo. So maybe that will expand by 4% for the first two or three quarters,
06:18which may not have been anticipated by analysts. Fair point. All right. Harsh,
06:21thanks so much for breaking that down for us. In fact, we've also got
06:24Ashish Kapoor, Chief Executive Officer of Investshop joining in. Ashish,
06:28a quick view on Bajaj Finance. What do you make of it? Of course, it's off the high point of the
06:31day today. Ashish, if you can hear me, what do you make of Bajaj Finance? It's off the high
06:42point of the day, but significant development? Okay, we seem to be having a bit of an issue
06:50with Ashish Kapoor's line and we will go back to him as and when we get to fix that. In the
06:55meanwhile, let me take a few questions that have come through and we've got the first one coming in
07:01from Shabbir and he's asking about Adani Green, which he is wondering whether to get into at the
07:06current level for short or medium term. I'll come to you, Rajat, on the charts. What do you make of
07:11it? Regarding Adani Green, I would say that it is actually showing a bit of a distribution pattern.
07:19When I say distribution pattern, that means there had been a rise earlier, say last year,
07:26last two months, it showed a rally from lower levels of around, say, thousand rupees. From
07:33there, there had been a phenomenal rally, but now the moving averages are all moving down except
07:39the 200 exponential moving average, which is currently below 1600, say it is at 1533.
07:47So either you would see a sideways kind of a movement where it will oscillate between 1700
07:54and 1850 or if it were to fall below 1700, then it can even test the 1600 mark because 1600 mark
08:03to about 1533, the 200 exponential moving average level would act as a major support area. However,
08:12for long term investors, I don't see any cause for real concern. All right. Ashish, if you can
08:19hear me, we were trying to get a quick view on Bajaj Finance. It was the focus of the conversation
08:25at the start of the show. What do you make of it? Would you suggest a fresh entry at this point?
08:31No, I don't think so. I think there is a significant change in the business environment
08:38when it comes to Bajaj Finance. Earlier, they were the clear leaders and they were able to
08:45maintain their margins, maintain their volume growth, maintain their dominant presence quite
08:51easily. They are being challenged. And the main issue is the very grandiose plans made by Jio
08:58Financial. And given the kind of financial muscle and the kind of execution background they are
09:05coming from, that does raise a lot of concern. And that is a very serious concern. And considering
09:09that the valuation of Bajaj Finance is very high, I don't think you're going to get any movement
09:14here. At best, it could be sideways for some more time and difficult to guess for how much more
09:22time. So frankly speaking, I think it's a great stock. If you bought it at lower levels over the
09:27years, keep holding on. Don't exit. But I don't think it's a good idea to enter at this stage.
09:33All right. I forgot to mention, we spoke about Adani Green just a short while back.
09:38A standard disclaimer here, this is NDTV Profit, part of the NDTV Group,
09:43which is owned by the Adani Group. The next company that we're talking about is Lloyd's
09:47Engineering Works. This is a question coming from Nagraj and he's writing in from Bengaluru.
09:52Rajat, this is based on the charts. He's holding 2000. I'm not too sure about the buy price. It's
09:59down about 7 percent or thereabouts. It appears a little iffy. So he's talking about acquiring
10:04it at 2 rupees. I do not see when the stock hit this level. What would you say about the charts
10:10right now? It is actually on an uptrend and it is continuously moving up for several months. I would
10:19say it has begun its journey much earlier throughout the last year and also this year,
10:26this is going up. And again, it has posted a new high. I would say that on dips, one should buy.
10:33And I would prefer to buy this, say, between 55 and 60. This stock is going to go places,
10:42in my view, because this kind of a sustained uptrend means that there is definitely positive
10:49fundamentals that are going to emerge from this. So one can continue as well as buy on dips. Any
10:55fresh entrant can buy at current levels, even on dips, and put a stop loss below the 200
11:02exponential moving average, which is at 45. But I would say that put your stop loss at 43.
11:08All right. It's a stock that Rajat seems to have high conviction on.
11:13Ganesh Prasad is asking the next question. Patel Engineering is a counter that he wants to
11:18focus on. Ashish, any coverage on this one? No, I haven't tracked it for a while.
11:24All right. Fair point. Rajat, any view on Patel Engineering? He's not specified what
11:29time frame he is talking about. So maybe give us a generic view.
11:35Patel Engineering grapevine has it that it is turning around. But I would say that if somebody
11:44is planning to buy into this stock, should keep a stop loss below 45 again. And it needs to take
11:52out the range between 70 and 80, because lots of supply are likely to come. Unless you are very
12:01keen on buying this at these levels, you better wait for, say, levels around 49, 48. Those kind
12:10of levels would be much better. Because this stock, if it were to fall below the 200 day moving
12:18average now, it can go sharply down. That's the problem that I see on this chart. All right.
12:25Allied Digital is the next counter that we're focusing on. And it's currently trading at 144
12:30thereabouts. And this is a question coming from Satya. He's asking what the specific view on the
12:35basis of fundamentals is on this particular counter, and if not, in the space that it plays in.
12:41Ashish, what's the view?
12:44Again, I haven't really tracked it. But if the question is on the digital space, yes,
12:51one is very bullish, of course. And I think the entire AI and IoT and all will do very well.
13:00There are plenty of ways of playing it. One can play it through one of the listed companies. And
13:09in that, you have a number of options, including data and analytics companies and
13:19many other ways. But in particular, Allied Digital, I haven't tracked.
13:23Okay. If you were to enter into this, if that is your recommendation, Rajat,
13:28what level should you watch out for?
13:32Now, the 200 day exponential moving average is around the current levels,
13:36very close to the current levels. It is around 137 and currently it is at 145. So you can enter,
13:44because this stock has a tendency to move up sharply. And then it comes back, it comes down
13:53over a period of two to three months, that phase is already over. And there are certain signals
14:00on the chart that it might actually move up. So put a stop loss below, say, 130 and go long.
14:08Once it crosses 160, you can add more.
14:11All right. Fair point. That's the view on Allied Digital. We have to slip into a very
14:15quick break. We've got more on the other side. So do stay tuned.
15:00Thank you.
15:30you
16:00you
16:30you
16:48Welcome back. You're watching Ask Profit on NDTV. Profit, I was looking at the screen and in fact,
16:54the Nifty 50 is trading below the 22,500 mark. Remember, the high point of the day was very close
17:00to that 22,800 mark. So it's quite a precipitous fall from the high point. And also at the bottom
17:06of your screen, you'll see an update. Sriram Properties has acquired a 4 acre land parcel
17:12in Bengaluru. And the stock is up and about on account of that, I would think, because it has
17:19gained from the low point of the day. Let's take the next question. It's on Bandhan Bank. And in
17:24fact, we've got a Benami question, if I can call it that. I would encourage you to tell us your
17:30name and where you're tuning in from, because that helps us identify you. This particular question
17:35is, it's a, I would think a short term question, because the buy price is 477, holding from 2020
17:43and asking whether in the short term, it has any possibility of crossing 250. Rajat,
17:48on the charts, what levels would you watch out for?
17:52So it is Bandhan Bank, right? That's right.
17:56See, Bandhan Bank is currently around, say, 180, if I'm not mistaken.
18:02And Bandhan Bank is not showing any major recovery signs. For that to happen, it needs to take out
18:09215, 220 level because the 200 exponential moving average, which is moving down in a gradual manner
18:20and other moving averages, except for short term moving averages, they have turned around and
18:27probably there would be a minor bounce, but one should not be expecting much of it.
18:33And one should use a very close stop loss if one is getting into this.
18:39Fair point. Next question is from Nalini. Nalini is writing in from Patiala and asking about
18:44Biocon, whether it can be bought for the next two years. Ashish, what's your view on this one?
18:50See, Biocon seems to be doing well after a long time. I think this is a stock where you could bet
18:57for the near term. And I think, yes, it's a good idea to buy at the current level. So it has moved
19:02up a bit, but I think still it seems to be pretty good to enter. And this could possibly be kind of
19:09a short term. I don't agree with the long term view. We've really not been able to create capital
19:14over the years. But yeah, for the near term, it looks to be a good bet, you can say a short term
19:20investment or a trading bet. From here, maybe another 10-15% upside. Looks quite possible in
19:26the next couple of months. Absolutely. It's something that has gained quite significantly
19:32over the last six months or so. Let's talk about Ramesh's question. He's writing in from Chennai.
19:36He's holding Ratan Power. He's asking whether it's a good stock to hold from the long term
19:41perspective. Ashish, any view on this one? No, again, I haven't tried. Okay, Ratan Power,
19:49so Ratan India is what we're looking at, Rajat, and it is currently trading. Let's
19:55pull up the chart and see. Repeat the script name. Yes, we're talking about Ratan India and
20:01it's currently trading or Ratan India Power, it's currently trading below the 10 rupee mark. So,
20:06effectively a penny stock. I am unable to give any suggestion because I don't track and I can't
20:16even find it right now. That's fair. Would you very quickly give any advice on such trading bets,
20:23on such holdings? They don't always pay off, Rajat. See, I would say that one should, I mean,
20:31basically this kind of stocks, these are penny stocks and you don't know how the management is,
20:38and what is their return on capital. If you get into this kind of stocks, sometimes they give
20:44very fast shooting up kind of movements and you make money. But my experience over the last 30
20:52years has been that if you get into this kind of a stock, out of 20, one will become a multi-bagger,
21:00two will give you some money and 17 will actually disappoint you in a big way. So,
21:07why get into this kind of stocks? Yeah, and the 17 that disappoint, unfortunately,
21:12if a stock is trading at 9 rupees and if it loses 2 rupees or 3 rupees or even 5 rupees,
21:19you've lost half of the value. Let's talk about the next one, Maharashtra Seamless.
21:24We've got a question from Rajiv asking about the fundamental view on this one. Ashish,
21:28do you have a view on this one? Yeah, I think this is a good stock. It has
21:34historically done very well for investors and I don't see any reason why that should change. I
21:39think this is a stock where you could look for buying opportunities on the way down.
21:43And I think that should give you good returns coming in the near future also.
21:49All right. Ashoka Bilkon is the next account that we're talking about. Rakesh has got this
21:54question. Borrowed levels of 161. Can it be held for the long term? He hasn't specified whether
22:01this is fundamental query. So, Rajiv, I'm going to go across to you on this one. Ashoka Bilkon,
22:05would you suggest holding on? One can continue to hold on. That's not a problem because it has
22:13been rising and now it is into a sideways movement and till such time it falls below say 145 or so,
22:20I don't think there would be a major problem. And currently, it is at 173 but at this price,
22:26you don't buy it. You should be considering buying it between say 155 and 145 and put a
22:33stop loss below 140. That's fine. And only when it crosses 190 decisively, you will see the uptrend
22:41resuming. Currently, it is in a sideways trading volatile kind of situation.
22:46Okay. Gentlemen, last couple of minutes, so we can run through quite a few of these queries
22:51quickly. Maybe keep your answers short. Delivery is the next counter. Parth wants to know from
22:56the perspective of one to two years. Ashish, sorry, yeah, Ashish, what's the view?
23:03I would think avoid. I think it's moved up also and valuation is quite high.
23:08Okay. The next counter is, well, hasn't named. Popular vehicles. Okay. For the short term,
23:14I don't think you have enough, Rajat, on the data front. But would you suggest a fresh entry or
23:20holding on, Ashish, if you're holding on to this one?
23:26Me? Yes, Ashish, you. Yeah, okay. Okay. Popular, again, you're right. The company is doing very
23:32well, has a very good hold in South Indian market on the sale of cars, especially Maruti. The stock
23:42is good. Again, valuation can be a bit of concern. But if you buy solely on declines,
23:46I think that should be a good idea and you should make money in the future.
23:51Okay. Alembic Limited is the next counter that we're talking about. And Rajat, this one's for
23:56you. I'm trying to pull up the chart. It's currently trading at 92 or thereabouts. And in fact,
24:01Vinod from Chennai is asking about the six-month time frame. Should it be held on to?
24:05One can hold on to it unless it falls below 87. Below 87, it would go below the 200
24:13exponential moving average. The maximum stretchable stop loss would be 82.
24:19But as of now, I think the uptrend is already through and there was a pullback. The pullback
24:25would not take it to the highs of 104 or so. So if I were in the investor situation, I would have
24:33got out of it. And if I were to buy new, no, I am not buying right now. I would wait for lower levels.
24:42Paul Selvaraj is asking about South Indian Bank and whether this is the right time to buy. Ashish,
24:47I'm sure there are many, many good options in the banking space. Is this one of them?
24:54It can be one of them. I mean, it's a much smaller than many other banks. And
25:00I would say that it depends again on what kind of investor you are. If you're looking at something
25:06which is a bit of a risk, a bit of a long-term hold, but potentially could be giving you much
25:13better returns, then SIB is not a bad option. Otherwise, of course, the time-tested ones,
25:18your X's and ICICI's and the other ones are, of course, always there. Between the mid-cap
25:26space, there's also a federal bank and there's IDFC first, which I quite like.
25:32But I think South Indian Bank could be a good option for somebody looking for a
25:38return more than normal with some kind of a risk and longer term holding pattern.
25:42Okay, quick view on Zomato. Srivardhan Reddy is asking about this,
25:46buy, sell or hold. So I would assume that this is a trading call. Rajat, what's your view?
25:51First of all, there is a disclosure from my side that I personally hold Zomato in my
25:57long-term portfolio. At the moment, the uptrend is continuing and both the 9 and 20-day moving
26:03averages are also going up and they are supporting this upswing. So you can buy in the short term,
26:11you can buy for the long term, depending on your perspective, you can trade in this.
26:16It needs to take out 203, 204 to post higher highs.
26:21Okay, fair point. Do we have time for one more question? All right. IFCI is the counter that
26:27we're talking about. The Government of India, according to my viewer, has infused money into
26:33this particular counter. I am not aware of this. I must confess, Abhay wants to know about this.
26:39Any view, gentlemen, on this? Ashish, I'll come to you on this one.
26:42Well, I think this entire public sector, financial institutions, bank space has played out
26:50over a period of time now. I think too late to try and enter into one of them, one of the,
26:55let's say, one of the less, less strong fundamentally stock now. I think it's too
27:02late in the rally. So I would give it an avoid. Okay, fair point. We're completely out of time
27:06now on this particular edition of Ask Profit. Gentlemen, thank you so much for taking the time
27:11and viewers, hopefully the conversations that we've had today has benefited you.
27:16We've got lots more lined up over the course of the day. And this is NDTV Profit.
27:40Thank you.
28:40Thank you.
29:10Thank you.