- #Nifty, #Sensex trade at record highs
- UBS maintains 'sell' on #HeroMotoCorp
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on 'Ask Profit'.
- UBS maintains 'sell' on #HeroMotoCorp
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on 'Ask Profit'.
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NewsTranscript
00:00On that number that you see flashing on your screen, we will take it up in just a bit.
00:03Before we do, let us talk about where the markets are right now.
00:06And you have the equity markets, at least the benchmarks that are trading with gains
00:11right now, narrow gains to say the least.
00:14But we are in the green and we have stayed in the green all through the session so far.
00:18Up about 0.2 percent and trading well above the 26,000 mark.
00:21Let us see if we hold in the rest of the session as well.
00:25The selling is visible at the broader end of the spectrum.
00:31So you are seeing both the mid-cap as well as the small-cap index that are trading with
00:35cuts.
00:36Mid-cap down about half percent, small-cap down about 0.3 percent and the ranges have
00:39been narrow.
00:40But the market breadth which was tilted in favor of the advances at the start of the
00:44session has turned the other way and is now favoring the declines.
00:48In fact, quite a bit of a gap that is emerging, something that took place in trade yesterday
00:53as well.
00:55But you saw quite a late run on the Nifty 50.
00:57Let us see if that pans out again.
00:59Let us also pull up the sectoral performers and see which one is contributing today.
01:04IT is up and about in trade today after losing ground yesterday.
01:07It is half a percent higher.
01:09The metal pack is once again in focus, 0.9 percent higher.
01:13There are some murmurs that China is taking a lot of action to bolster its economy.
01:21It is in fact a very rare instance of it.
01:24It is doling out cash to the vulnerable sections of society and that is not something that
01:28it does very often.
01:30That announcement came through from its state broadcaster.
01:33That was something we heard this morning.
01:35And then there is another update not too long back, in fact around 11 o'clock, where they
01:41were talking about the Politburo saying that there is a possibility of interest rate cuts.
01:46So seemingly the policy makers in China are taking increasing cognizance of the flagging
01:53economy and there are steps that are likely to be taken to bolster economic growth there.
01:58And that usually bodes well for metals, the underlying, and therefore the metal counters
02:03today are outperforming once again.
02:07Let us talk about individual stocks though.
02:09You have PB Fintech that is losing ground.
02:11There is a clarification that has come through from the company saying that they are not
02:15going to enter into the healthcare space.
02:18It is down about 6.4 percent or thereabouts.
02:22And you have also a couple of other stocks that are reacting to stake sales.
02:27Ask Automotive, for example, is a share that fell on account of promoter stake sale.
02:32Yesterday you saw quite a bit of selling in Ease My Trip or Easy Trip Planners as it is
02:38called.
02:39Let us see where it is currently trading.
02:40It is up about 6 percent, but yesterday it fell as much as 16 plus percent or so.
02:45Let us talk about one of the underperformers among the large caps and let us see where
02:50Hero Motocorp is currently trading because there was a UBS note that came through earlier
02:55and they have cut their target quite significantly.
02:59The target that they set indicated a 44 percent downside on the stock and Agam is joining
03:05in to tell you what they are saying.
03:07Agam primarily concentrating on the weakening of what has been their biggest strength, which
03:15is the lower CC motorcycles.
03:18That's right.
03:19Well, UBS has cut its price target on Hero Motocorp and they are now looking at it negatively
03:25at the moment.
03:26Well, they maintain a sell and they've set a price target of around 3350, which entails
03:32about over 40 percent decline from even current market levels after the kind of weakness that
03:38we've seen in Hero Motocorp today.
03:40The reason here is that firstly, it has rallied about 20 percent from its first quarter earnings.
03:46But more importantly, there are concerns around its volumes at the moment.
03:50Now, as far as the September wholesale volume data is concerned, that comes in at around
03:54six lakhs against an expectation of three lakh.
03:58And the fact this number is twice as much as what is expected, it indicates to a certain
04:03extent that the company is pushing inventories towards the distributors.
04:10And the full year retail volumes are lagging behind peers.
04:14They've also said that there's a significant underperformance when it comes to Hero Motocorp
04:18as compared to a lot of its peers in terms of its growth.
04:22Also, they add that there's been a loss of market share despite the fact that the company
04:27has launched a handful of models coming in.
04:30And in fact, you know, the retail market share for September stands at below 24 percent.
04:37So a lot of these concerns taken into consideration is the reason why UBS is, well, has a sell
04:44rating on the stock with a considerable downside as well.
04:48Thank you so much, Agam, for getting us those details.
04:50Of course, stock is under pressure.
04:52It is off the low point of the day, but still down about 2 percent.
04:55And I think if I'm not mistaken, it is the worst performer on the Nifty 50 even as we speak.
05:00Let's get on our experts for the day.
05:02We've got Kush Bhora, who is a founder of kushbhora.com, as well as Rajesh Agarwal, who
05:06is a head of research at EOM Capital.
05:08Thank you so much to the both of you for taking the time.
05:11Good morning to you. Rajesh, I'll come to you first.
05:14What do you make of what they were saying on the UBS note, the shrinking of what has
05:20been the bread and butter segment for Hero MotoCorp?
05:26Good morning, Alex. Good morning, Kush.
05:29I saw the UBS report today morning and was surprised to see the targets as such, because
05:34the targets are substantially lower from what it has been quoting at this point of
05:38time.
05:39And with all due respect to UBS, I have my different opinions.
05:45I think the way wholesale volumes are going up, festival, marriage season are coming ahead.
05:50There are new product launches, the world's largest two-wheeler manufacturing company.
05:55Yes, of course, I agree that the market share has been falling on the last two, three quarters
06:01but when I look at the valuation, sitting at a P of 25-26, I think it's on a comfortable level.
06:10And not to forget that they are going to start the Brazil operation from Q4 of 2025.
06:15The dispatch to Philippines has already been started.
06:18They're launching EV scooters in Ukraine and Europe.
06:20These things are very exciting, I would say.
06:24Q1 numbers were good, 36% jump in bottom line, strong sales volume, rural recovery, everything
06:30was in their favor.
06:32And not to forget the kind of new launches that have been taken very well by the market.
06:36Extreme 125, that has been a hit, I would say.
06:40And this September numbers may be a little drag, not only for Vero Honda, but the entire
06:46auto pack as such, because start season is going on and people hesitate buying new cars
06:52or something of that sort in start season.
06:55After 2nd October, I think when we enter into a festival season, Navratri, Diwali and all,
07:02again, autos and numbers are going to be good.
07:05So, what I feel is this kind of fall today, which we are witnessing 2%, again, if 1% or
07:112% more falls, it would be a good opportunity to accumulate for medium to long-term investors.
07:17Okay, all right.
07:18That's an interesting point that you're making on Hiromoto Corp, Rajesh.
07:22Thanks so much for that.
07:23It's time to start the queries and there are quite a few that have come through already.
07:27If you're writing in for the first time, make sure to tell us what your name is.
07:31Ideally, where you're also tuning in from, because it'll help you identify when your
07:35question is being taken.
07:36The first one we're taking today is from Chandra and Chandra is asking about PB Fintech.
07:41It's a stock that has been under pressure today.
07:43It is down about 6% even as we speak right now.
07:46And he's bought at levels of 1800 or thereabouts.
07:4850 shares is what he has.
07:50So, he's witnessing a loss right now.
07:53The question is, should he hold on at this point?
07:55Of course, a clarification coming through from the company saying that it's not getting
07:58into the healthcare space.
08:00This is policy bizarre, of course.
08:02Kush, what's the view on the charts?
08:05Hi, first of all, very good morning to you, gentlemen.
08:07Well, to Chandra, my suggestion would be to hold on.
08:10The stock has seen a sell-off over the last three-odd sessions, but the volumes on all
08:15three sessions, including today, have been spiking.
08:18Now, there are two points that could give him some respite, some solace, which is the
08:22fact that the stock has a good support near the 1530-1540 mark.
08:27If you see the day low for the day, for today, it's also around that mark.
08:30Also, the stock has rebounded.
08:32So, my suggestion, he is in a bit of a loss.
08:341800 was slightly higher buying price right now from where we are seeing.
08:39Hold on to this one, but keep a tight top loss at 1530.
08:43If that level is broken, it could be further downside.
08:45But with the kind of moves that we've seen today, rebounding from loss, the stock could
08:49very well move to higher levels.
08:51Now, his waiting period for 1800 could be higher.
08:53But on the whole, at the moment, he should not sell.
08:56Wait for some recovery.
08:58Okay, fair point.
08:59All right.
08:59The next counter that we're talking about is CDSL.
09:03And this is a question from Lieutenant Shri Hari Talnikar, who's bought at levels of 660.19.
09:11The stock is trading well above that.
09:13He's holding 2000 shares.
09:14And he's looking at what the target could be over the long term.
09:18The five-year period is what he has highlighted.
09:21Rajesh, perhaps you will not be able to look that far.
09:24But based on the earnings that you've looked at for this company, what are the prospects
09:29looking like?
09:31The prospects are very exciting.
09:33First, let me congratulate the Lieutenant on setting a good amount of profit and waiting
09:38for a long period of time.
09:39And still preferring to stay put for the next five years.
09:43It's a very good company, no doubt on that.
09:45The numbers have been increasing month on month.
09:47We have seen DP account holder numbers going up.
09:50It's the only listed player in the space.
09:52NSDL has not yet been listed.
09:54So I think the kind of growth this company is showing, we expect around 15% CAGR growth
10:01in the next four to five years on the market campus.
10:03So I believe that time is not a constraint.
10:07Carry on with the stock.
10:08It could fall to around 1300-1350 all levels by any chance.
10:12It's a good opportunity to accumulate.
10:16Okay, good opportunity to accumulate CDSL.
10:19So don't worry about that.
10:20In fact, Lieutenant, you've got a great price.
10:22A lot of people would be green with envy having seen the price that you bought the stock at.
10:27Let's talk about the next one, BSE.
10:29It's also a market-facing company.
10:31And in fact, we've got Shivam's question.
10:34Shivam has bought at levels of 4066, which is slightly elevated.
10:38The stock is currently trading below the buy price.
10:41It's 3775 or thereabouts.
10:44He's got 10 shares.
10:45He's asking what should he do given that it is losing ground right now.
10:51Kush, any insights that you can provide based on what you're seeing on the chart?
10:56I mean, it's gained quite significantly over the last 12 months.
10:58Well, Alex, what we're seeing in the last two sessions, including today is a bit of
11:04profit booking.
11:04The stock had a vertical run, if you see, from 2950 levels all the way up until 4200.
11:11My suggestion would be to hold.
11:12Once this round of profit booking is over, the stock could move higher.
11:16LBH, he may not see exponentially high profits, even from a trading perspective, because the
11:21stock's already run up quite a bit.
11:24Here, the top loss comes in at 3550.
11:26That's a strong support zone.
11:28That should act as your stop loss.
11:30But my suggestion would be that if it's a purely trading bet, then you should start
11:35exiting once your buy price is achieved.
11:37Because from a risk reward standpoint, the upside from here may not be as great.
11:434200, the recent high, might start acting as a resistance.
11:46So hold with a stop loss of 3550 and start exiting partly and gradually once you see
11:51your buying price come about.
11:53All right.
11:54Arvind, Smart Spaces is the counter that I want to talk about next.
11:57And this is a question coming from Satya.
12:00I was looking at the market capitalization just under 4000 crore or thereabouts.
12:05And this is a developer that operates primarily in the Ahmedabad region.
12:10It also has some properties in Bangalore as well as in Pune.
12:14Any view on this, Rajesh?
12:16Would you buy for a period of one year?
12:20See, yes.
12:21For one year, I would suggest a buy.
12:23Because the land they're developing near Pune airport is going to be a good revenue
12:29generator, I would say.
12:30Because when the Pune airport comes up, the land prices are going to go up.
12:35They're going to make good amount of profit.
12:37The projects are good.
12:39Evaluations are reasonable.
12:40I think it's a buy from a side.
12:43Just to elucidate the point further, Kush, anything that you would like to say about
12:48an entry price from fundamentals, Rajesh likes it.
12:50But an entry price for this counter?
12:54I'm glad you asked me this, Alex.
12:55Because what happens is that after such a sharp spike, it does tend to get on traders
13:00and investors' radar.
13:02But this stock, if you see for the past few months, has had a tendency of moving anywhere
13:07from 10% to 25% and then correcting and consolidating for a longish period.
13:12We've had that kind of move over the last five sessions.
13:15I would wait out, let the stock come down to the support zone of about 775, 790 thereabouts
13:24and then start accumulating.
13:25Right now, the risk reward may not be as favorable.
13:27And as I said, the stock has a tendency of correcting and consolidating with a negative
13:31bias once it makes these sharp up moves.
13:34OK.
13:35The next counter that we're talking about is Doms.
13:39And the question is coming all the way from Canada.
13:43This is on Doms.
13:44And we've got Himani, who's bought at levels of 1,781 or thereabouts.
13:49The stock is currently trading above that buy price at about 2,627, 498 shares.
13:55So a substantial profit being made by Himani right now.
13:58What are the long-term prospects?
14:00It's a stationary company.
14:03Rajesh, any view on this?
14:04It's a stock that has gained its double this year.
14:07It's done quite well for itself.
14:08Would you hold on?
14:09Would you take some money off the table?
14:12I would take some money off the table.
14:13The valuation are quite stressed, I would say.
14:17If you look at the valuation, other companies like Link Payment is trading at a highly discounted
14:23value where Doms is being traded.
14:26The brand has got good reach in the entire educational space.
14:30But still, looking at the valuation, the valuations are stressed.
14:33I would take at least partial profit on the table.
14:36Partial profits to be taken.
14:40We're going to take more questions.
14:41In fact, we've got several coming through.
14:43Bhavdeep has got the next one.
14:45BCL Industries is the name of the counter that he's talking about.
14:48He's got 900 shares, but he's not told us what his buy price is.
14:52Unfortunately, Kush, I do not know what his buy price is or, in fact,
14:57how long he intends to hold for.
14:59So assuming that you bought at some point this year, which is, it's not done too much.
15:05It's down about 11% or thereabouts.
15:08What should your targets, what should your levels be?
15:12So, Alex, this is not a very encouraging setup.
15:15Now, if you see for the last couple of months, the averages have been on a slightly upward
15:21trajectory.
15:21But on the whole, the stock has given way from the 200-day moving average or thereabouts
15:25and hasn't really held ground.
15:27And in fact, one of the rare, not rare, but one of the few stocks where I've seen that
15:33on the way down, the volumes are higher.
15:34In a lot of these names, you see volumes thin when the stock is going down.
15:39Here, the case is quite contrary.
15:41I wouldn't venture a trade into it.
15:43If I do have this position, I will exit at the current juncture.
15:46Okay.
15:48Let me take the next one from Neha.
15:50Neha, writing in from Bengaluru, asking about two counters, but I will pick BF Utilities,
15:56making 18% gains.
15:58She's looking for the technical targets and strategy for the next one to three months.
16:04What would you do with this?
16:05It's a stock that has gained quite a bit over the last 12 months.
16:09But if I look at the last six months of that, it's been choppy and it faces resistance around
16:16the level squish that it is right now.
16:19Will it break past that is the question.
16:22Spot on, Alex.
16:23You've made my work easy.
16:24The previous highs for this stock has been around this 980 mark, at least on a closing
16:29basis.
16:30So if you have a position, my suggestion would be to book partially and hold the rest with
16:34a stop loss at 935.
16:36That is where a support zone comes in.
16:37Now, the stock has gone up on very good volumes.
16:40And we've seen the follow through as well over the last two sessions, right after the
16:43breakout that we saw four sessions ago.
16:45So there's a good possibility that the stock would continue this momentum upwards.
16:49And I would hold this, hold the rest of the quantity for targets of 1050 and 1100.
16:54But yes, given the kind of triple top that this is seem to be making, I would book partially
17:01at the current junction.
17:02And as I said, hold the rest with a stop loss at 935.
17:05I'm going to take the next question from Mr. Venkat Ramani, who's writing in from
17:09Bengaluru, asking about Concor.
17:11He's bought 590 shares at a price of 1051.
17:15The stock is currently trading below that at about 890.
17:19So making a bit of a loss.
17:21Rajesh, I think a lot has taken place over the last year or so.
17:25Containers and the price of containers, the price is fluctuating.
17:30Marine trade getting affected because of various reasons.
17:36What would you say about this for the long term, though?
17:40For the long term, it's a buy.
17:42The kind of correction it has witnessed, just because of the fact that some time back, there
17:46were news in the media that the government, which was earlier considering what this investment
17:51has gone back on to that.
17:52So that was the reason we saw the correction.
17:54But if you look at the fundamentals of the companies have very strong fundamentals, strong
17:59numbers, one of the largest play, rather the largest play in the logistic space, I would
18:04say a lot of land doing very well.
18:07Railway siding, that business which was in a problem sometimes back had been solved.
18:12And these things are in favor of Concor.
18:14I think one could go long on this.
18:16Go long on Concor.
18:17All right.
18:18If you're holding, hold on.
18:19And perhaps it's a good opportunity to add more with the dips that you've seen.
18:2315 to 20% notional profit in Greenpanel and PVRInox.
18:28I'm curious about what Kush has to say about PVRInox.
18:32Neelam from Jaipur is asking about this.
18:35And what are the suggested targets on this one?
18:39Kush, what are the levels that you would look at where you would look to take some money
18:43off the table?
18:46Alex, the current price is also not a bad one, because there are multiple resistance
18:50points from a medium term perspective on PVR and on the daily chart, you're starting to
18:55see a bit of a negative resistance, which suggests that after the good run that it's
18:58had all the way from 1300, the stock could witness some profit booking.
19:02So if I have profit, I will take 50% of them off the table.
19:07The rest of them, I will continue to hold with targets of 1825 and about 1900 odd levels
19:14for positional bet.
19:17I guess this is the Marvel effect.
19:18After the announcement of Robert Downey Jr., the forces of stock has turned, although it's
19:23probably some time before the money starts coming in.
19:26For green panel, not a bad idea to book profits at the current level.
19:30If you've got a 15-20% profit, because the stock is seeing a sharp run of profit booking
19:34and very close to support zone.
19:36So if it does break, then it will go below.
19:38So green panel, take money off the table.
19:41PVR, book partially and hold the rest for targets of 1825 and 1900.
19:45All right.
19:45So you've gotten a view on both.
19:47Dhansooklal Bharucha was writing in from Valsad.
19:49He's asking about IEX.
19:51It's a stock that has been in focus this week.
19:53It has lost ground.
19:55And this is on account of the buzz yet again of market coupling that has come through.
19:59Of course, since the levels that it controlled, I'm talking about the market share of over
20:0490%, it has now dropped to about 84%.
20:07It's still a dominant player, but it is losing ground.
20:10And the question marks about the pricing.
20:12So from that perspective, if you bought at levels of 221, with the stock trading at,
20:17if I'm not mistaken, around 208 levels.
20:19So not too much of ground lost.
20:22Rajesh, from a relatively shorter term time frame, would you hold on to this?
20:30Of course, I would hold on.
20:31See, if I look at the numbers, there were 19% jump in the volume in the first quarter.
20:36The numbers have been good.
20:37The only problem is the decoupling news, which has been going around.
20:40One year back also, this has happened.
20:42And again, from the last two, three days, this has been going there.
20:46But the things are still not clear whether they will be implemented right now or after
20:50two years.
20:51That's a big question.
20:52So nothing has been clear on that front.
20:54And the kind of knock this stock has taken is phenomenal.
20:57I think one can go long if it falls to around 190 odd levels by any chance.
21:03But at this point of time, it's a hold.
21:06Hold.
21:06All right.
21:06Suzlon is the next counter that we're talking about.
21:09Manthan from Ahmedabad in Gujarat is asking about this.
21:13Bought 600 shares at an average price of 80.
21:16The stock is currently trading at 82.
21:18Should you hold or sell?
21:19Can hold for one year.
21:21Come back to you, Kush, on the technicals.
21:25How much steam is left in Suzlon is the question.
21:29Looks like there is enough and more steam.
21:32Because if you see, as I said, a lot of these names that are run up, on the way down,
21:36aren't seeing as big a volume as it did on the way up.
21:40Which is suggesting that the selling pressure isn't really all that great.
21:43Now, that instills confidence.
21:45Nevertheless, I would suggest a stop loss of 75.
21:49That's a good, strong positional support zone.
21:52If that is broken, then you might want to consider perhaps exiting
21:56and consider a re-entry at lower levels.
21:57At the moment, continue to hold.
21:59Your stop loss is 75.
22:01On the way up, there's a good possibility that the stock could hit 95.
22:04And if that is taken on perhaps even 110 odd levels in about a year's time.
22:08So Suzlon, the consolidation that is going through right now is a healthy one.
22:11Continue to hold.
22:13Okay.
22:13VST Industries, very quick view on this one.
22:16And then we'll hit the rapid fire segment.
22:18VST Industries, border levels of 428.
22:20The stock is currently trading at 380.
22:23Large investors selling.
22:25Anything to worry about?
22:27Ram Rao is asking about this.
22:28He's writing in from Ahmedabad.
22:30Rajesh, any view on this one?
22:33See, the numbers are not that good.
22:34Although they have good brands.
22:36But still, I think it's better to exit and uptake.
22:39So any upside should be taken an opportunity to exit.
22:43Okay.
22:43Ram Rao from Andhra Pradesh.
22:45My bad.
22:45I said Ahmedabad.
22:48It's time to hit the rapid fire segment.
22:50And gentlemen, you both know what this means.
22:52Do keep your answers as concise as possible.
22:56We will have two minutes to take as many questions as we possibly can.
23:00The first question coming through from Vijaywada.
23:02This is Naresh's question.
23:04He's asking about HAL.
23:05Hindustan Aeronautics, which is border levels of 4862.
23:10The stock is currently trading at 4361.
23:14Would you hold or sell at this juncture at a loss, Rajesh?
23:19See, if time is not the constraint, hold.
23:21Yagnesh is writing in from Bengaluru.
23:23Holding 34 shares of Reliance Industries at 2415.
23:28That will double not too long from now.
23:29He's got a long-term view.
23:3110 plus years.
23:32Should he add more, Rajesh?
23:34Hold on.
23:34What's the view?
23:36Add.
23:37Add more.
23:38HFCL is the counter that we're talking about next.
23:41And we've got Subramaniam was bought at levels of 103.
23:45The stock is currently trading well above that.
23:47Kush, would you hold on or would you book some profits?
23:51No, continue to hold.
23:52Positional stop loss at 145.
23:54Specific question for you, Rajesh.
23:56This is from Kamath.
23:57Bajaj Auto is the name of the counter.
23:58Bought at levels of 3500.
24:01Would you hold on to this?
24:04It's well, well above that.
24:07I would add.
24:08You would add at this level.
24:10My goodness.
24:10Okay.
24:12This is a question from...
24:14This is on...
24:16Okay, I'm not getting this counter.
24:18Mishra Dhatu.
24:19Okay, this is the next question we're taking.
24:21Harshita is asking about Mishra Dhatu.
24:23Kush, on the charts, would you buy this?
24:25I'm sorry, it's taking a bit of a time to load.
24:31Okay, you got it?
24:33I got it.
24:34I think, you know, this is a bit of a downturn.
24:35You might want to consider a tight stop loss at 375.
24:39That's broken.
24:40You might want to exit.
24:41Okay, Devika from Chennai.
24:43Holding both REC and PFC.
24:45She's holding for the long term.
24:47I won't get into the prices.
24:48But Rajesh, on the fundamentals, if you're holding, would you continue to hold?
24:52I would continue to hold.
24:54Okay, we're out of time.
24:55But I think we've done reasonably well.
24:58Gentlemen, thank you so much for taking the time,
25:00for answering all the questions that you did answer.
25:03And well, viewers, hopefully we've been able to help you out
25:07over the course of the last half an hour or so.
25:09We did try to take as many questions as we possibly could.
25:12We'll be back tomorrow to take more though.
25:14So I'd encourage you to join in at that time.
25:17In the meanwhile, there's lots more coming up on NDTV Profits.
25:20So do stay tuned.