As India's initial voting phase begins, it offers a chance to contest for 102 seats, with Tamil Nadu emerging as a pivotal battleground boasting 39 seats. Senior Journalist KV Lakshmana shares insights on the DMK and BJP's prospects in the state. Additionally, the whereabouts of the AIADMK in the electoral fray are also discussed.
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00:00 So, his cadre will get a boost and for the coming time, when Vidhan Sabha elections are also held,
00:05 so it is possible that he will get some benefit from it.
00:08 Yes, Vidhan Sabha elections are two years later, so it is possible that his game plan is this.
00:13 But, for now, the fight is between the two Dravidian forces.
00:19 And it is not that AIDM is a pushover.
00:23 They will also take 3-4 seats today, even after being so weak.
00:28 Okay.
00:30 Incidentally, BJP is also very strong in the same region.
00:35 So, the fight that is seen there, in the triangular fight,
00:40 maybe, BJP and AIDM have fought among themselves and made the path a little easier for DMK.
00:47 Now, it will be a matter of time, then what will happen later, no one can tell.
00:53 But, in general, it seems that by doing this triangular fight,
00:58 maybe, the path for DMK has become a little easier than before.
01:04 Because, it has been two years since the government has been in the state government.
01:09 So, a little bit of anger is seen among the people against the government.
01:14 Absolutely.
01:15 But, DMK is lucky that both the sides fought among themselves.
01:21 Mr. Lakshmana, how big a factor do you consider Mr. K Annamalai?
01:29 Because, he is a young candidate, has been a public servant,
01:37 and he has checked all the boxes as far as the BJP's wish list is concerned.
01:44 And, to back a young talent in the land of the Stalins and AIDMK stalwarts,
01:53 do you believe that BJP has backed the right candidate there? How much of a potential does it promise?
02:00 Long term, as somebody said, we are all dead, so we don't know. But, in the immediate short term,
02:08 he has been struggling, he has been fighting very hard. But, it will be a lot of effort which may not pay immediate results.
02:18 So, as a long term strategy, yes, you have a charismatic leader. As you rightly said, he ticks almost all the boxes.
02:26 But, unfortunately for the BJP, the issue is that it is a party that is perceived, it is a perception.
02:35 It could be nothing I can do or anybody can do over the last five decades or so as a Hindu party.
02:41 And, even the actions that the central government leaders by pushing off and on the Hindu issue,
02:49 they are giving a handle for the DMK which is, which otherwise would have been fighting hard for its, holding its fort.
03:00 And that and also these cases, the Enforcement Directorate, NCB, I mean, you do that in the fag end, in the run up to polling.
03:11 If you do those, it may not give a very fantastic support for the BJP,
03:18 especially in a state where corruption has been there since times immemorial. People seem to be okay with living with corruption.
03:28 Besides this, how are you okay? Please, go ahead.
03:33 No, no, I was saying that in my opinion, it is like this, that perhaps the BJP in a little over enthusiasm, over excitement,
03:43 their behaviour with a bigger party like AIDC, to a great extent, people like us did not understand why they are doing this.
03:52 It is not happening. Absolutely, Lakshman sir. For the 26th assembly elections or long term.
03:58 Because at this time, no seat of the BJP is being taken. It is not visible.
04:05 See, post poll alliance is also a thing, you know, that arithmetic.
04:09 See, that is with the BJP of AIDC. What happened in the last election, that by living with the BJP,
04:16 their level of support had come down a little. In the last assembly elections, they fought with the BJP.
04:23 So, they were pushed a little there. Maybe that's why they also made a little distance and then after the elections,
04:31 it is clear that if the government is to be formed tomorrow, AIDMK is not going with them.
04:40 Absolutely, this is a tactic. But AIDMK may also have the issue that the issues are, as you said,
04:46 that the issue of the Hindi belt is being tried to push it in the south. And that is not working.
04:52 It is not being acceptable in a way. So, maybe AIDMK was also afraid that they too could be harmed.
04:57 So, this time let's separate and see what the post poll situation will be.
05:01 If we take the issue of Ram Mandir, Ram competes with other people there, with other gods.
05:11 Like in the north, behind Ram, there is our Tirupati, Murugan. Like DMK for the first time in its election,
05:20 it brought Murugan and made him stand. So, it will not be so effective in Tamil Nadu, where mostly it was assumed that upper caste,
05:32 the Brahmins, they support the BJP. By and large. Now, this is not the fault of the BJP. They support.
05:39 But as soon as their support goes to the BJP, the other 97% other castes, they consolidate against the BJP.
05:49 This danger, I don't know how the BJP will solve this problem. I think that they should increase the vote share and make a launchpad for the future.
06:01 You know, coming to the north, if we come to the northern part of the country, Mr. Lakshmanath, you know, the point here is that time and again,
06:10 if you talk about, you know, as they say, the cow belt or the Hindi belt or the analytics for the BJP, the passion remains the north.
06:20 Now, you talk about, say, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, you know, Odisha, even West Bengal now.
06:27 The political pandits are touting that West Bengal could see a different scenario altogether this time around.
06:34 What they're expecting in Tamil Nadu also. Now, you believe that is something for the BJP that is achievable also if they manage to at least retain their ground, what they have been able to do in the last two years.
06:50 To me, the 400 slogan is a slogan given to energize its cadres. Mostly that. Yes.
07:01 Because it's a nice slogan, "Ab ki baar, 400 paar." So, BJP, it's a standard operating procedure as far as BJP is concerned.
07:09 Every time they set some impossible targets, West Bengal, they missed it very widely. And so, did it miss. So, that we need not take it so seriously.
07:22 But yes, by doing a 400 target, they can land at least 50 seats below the target. Between 350, they'll be comfortably above the government formation mark.
07:35 Because I don't see the opposition making so dramatic progress in terms of seats.
07:44 They may again, like BJP may gain some more additional seats in Tamil Nadu. Likewise, some parties may improve their seat, their voting percentage.
07:56 But not enough to carry forward in terms of seats. Right.
08:02 We're talking about West Bengal here. If you look at West Bengal, like how the fight was fought in West Bengal last time,
08:12 and no one had the idea that 18 seats will go to BJP in West Bengal.
08:20 And obviously, this time, the focus is again on West Bengal. But there is a gap of affection.
08:25 And so, it's not going to be easy for BJP to find a way. But if you look at West Bengal in terms of issues and other things,
08:35 how do you see the BJP going to go there, or above that, or below that in West Bengal? Because West Bengal is a very important state.
08:44 Yes, this time, the elections, every state is fighting for its independence. Like every regional party, like in Maharashtra, Maratha, Manus,
08:53 they're taking the sentiment, and the rest of the people of Mahavikasagadi, they're trying to make anti-Gujarati sentiment there.
09:03 And the economic and political decisions that have been made recently, they're getting a boost from them.
09:11 And in Bengal, Bengali Asmita is a very big factor, which BJP has a hard time countering as a broader issue.
09:22 And if they can retain their seats, it will be very good news for BJP. 18 seats are not a small number for Bengal.
09:31 And if they can retain, it will be a challenge. And in Bengal, they have made their home very well.
09:42 So, as far as the question is in Bengal, definitely it's again a different scenario for the BJP altogether.
09:52 And as far as the TMC is concerned, we have seen some rustlings between the ruling dispensation and the TMC,
10:02 as far as Mahua Moitra case was concerned, as far as Didi O Didi, that was also something that came flying back at the BJP.
10:08 Mamata Manjari once again in her full glory, training her guns.
10:12 So, all this thing, obviously, part of this complex scenario of the polity that we have here in India.
10:20 Talking about Jammu and Kashmir, Mr. Raman, why I'm going up north is a lot of factors.
10:26 See, I mean, Jammu and Kashmir, once again, the Election Commission has said, the Home Minister also said that
10:31 elections would be held there as far as assembly elections are concerned. But I'll be a bit later down the year.
10:37 But Article 370, the issue of Ladakh, the role of China, all these things have become one of the focal points
10:45 on which the Congress is banking its attack on the centre.
10:48 How important it is as of now to look at Jammu and Kashmir in these elections? Mr. Raman.
10:54 Up north, any addition is welcome for the opposition alliance.
11:01 And the way Jammu and Kashmir was run all these years with a lot of heavy, heavy,
11:12 one had to be very tough for taking administrative decisions, your international downs and use of force.
11:21 So all those things are now with the opposition coming to the elections with all these locally appealing issues,
11:35 which are our day to day life. So they do get a fillip, their campaign does get.
11:41 But there are just four seats and it hardly makes a difference other than making to make a point.
11:50 But 400 again, it is, I would be very, very surprised if it really happens.
11:57 Let's see. Thank you.
11:59 We have read the situation.
12:01 Sentiments are high because of Jammu and Kashmir.
12:06 [Hindi]