As polling begins in Tamil Nadu for the Lok Sabha elections, delve into the intricate political dynamics of the state. From the dominance of regional parties like the AIADMK and DMK to the emergence of new players, this video provides a comprehensive analysis of the key factors shaping Tamil Nadu's electoral landscape. Tune in to understand the various alliances, issues, and potential outcomes that could influence the state's political future.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 I think his party was caught transferring some 3-4 crores and they were caught.
00:06 And how could he say all these?
00:09 And we also know that he is very close to certain mining mafia people.
00:14 And this mining mafia, one of the guys, very popular guy known as Kavitalan, is very close
00:18 to his brother.
00:19 And that guy has invested in his brother's business.
00:22 And when all that sort of such things are happening, I am really shocked to hear that
00:26 he is trying to portray a totally different picture.
00:30 Having said that, the fight is always between DMK and ADMK.
00:35 So the Minos can sit out and watch.
00:37 But BJP decides, no, no, we want to make a change.
00:39 We want to give an alternative government to DMK and ADMK.
00:45 And that's been the pitch.
00:46 But what alternative?
00:47 In terms of what?
00:48 You are trying to polarize this state too?
00:51 You want to talk only about Ram Mandir and Jai Shri Ram?
00:54 Is that what you are trying to do here?
00:56 And that's not going to work because these are literate states.
00:59 The southern states, why they are resisting so much is that they don't want to buy this
01:02 religious argument.
01:03 You give us development, you give us prosperity, you give us employment.
01:08 That's what the country is looking at you right now.
01:10 Because last 10 years, whatever promises you made, you have gone back on your word and
01:15 you are not fulfilling all that.
01:16 The only thing you have done is polarizing this country.
01:19 And even in the south, we feel now that many people are interested in knowing what's your
01:23 caste and what's your religion.
01:24 Now, that's not going to help you.
01:26 That's not going to help this country.
01:28 Now, that's a problem now.
01:29 So people are looking for a change.
01:31 But the southern states, they are really not looking at a change right now.
01:36 They are going to resist this.
01:37 Probably they are the ones who are saving this democracy.
01:40 If imagine everything goes one way and they get 400, you know, just like the Kashi Vishwanath
01:46 temple, we will have everybody wearing saffron clothes and walking around in this country.
01:50 Do we really want that?
01:52 And we know what happened to countries like Bangladesh, I mean, Pakistan, who have told
01:56 that line and become a complete Islamic state and they lost their freedom and they lost
02:02 their democracy.
02:03 Everything is gone.
02:04 We don't want that to happen in India.
02:06 So the southern states are definitely going to resist that.
02:09 Anand Malik can say whatever he wants and all his supporters can keep wooing him, but
02:14 that's not going to change ground reality.
02:16 Secular fabric is what Mr. Mulitharan is pointing at.
02:22 Yes, we'll come back to you, Mr. Mulitharan, because the points that you have raised are
02:27 quite pertinent.
02:28 You talk about literate states, which might be a veiled or oblique reference to the parts
02:33 of which are not considered to be, which don't have that kind of literacy rate.
02:39 And secondly, as far as the, this Hindutva factor is concerned and whether India would
02:46 be heading towards what happened to Pakistan.
02:49 Mr. Narayan, we would like to go to you.
02:53 There is a clear demarcation, which is visible in the north states and in the south states
02:57 regarding issues.
02:58 Mr. Narayan, we would like to go to you, in the perspective of Tamil Nadu, especially
03:01 in the way that Mr. Mulitharan is saying that the issues that are raised by the Indian
03:07 people and the issues that are raised by the BJP, he is trying to do the same in Tamil
03:12 Nadu.
03:13 But then, why has the BJP gone to Tamil Nadu alone?
03:16 How do you see it?
03:17 Has it taken this step for the future or does it have some other plan?
03:21 Look, I think the BJP originally planned to obviously have the alliance with the AADMK.
03:28 The AADMK was seen as the party more likely between the two Dravidian majors to allow
03:33 that and to make that happen.
03:35 But at the same time, they ran into some very serious problems because, again, it was Mr.
03:39 Annamalai, who I think is, while he may be commended for his efforts, he brought out
03:45 the so-called DMK files and he started a dialogue on corruption.
03:50 He is yet to understand the nuances of Dravidian politics and he went ahead in certain statements
03:55 he made, were considered insulting to C.N.
03:57 Annadurai, who is considered the joint legacy of Dravidian movement for whether DMK or AADMK.
04:03 Now that, you can say on the one hand, reflects the conflict between Hindutva politics and
04:08 Dravidian politics.
04:09 But on the other hand, it also reflects Mr. Annamalai's own lack of nuanced approach in
04:14 terms of understanding the psyche of the common voter in Tamil Nadu.
04:19 What are the issues that matter to them?
04:20 How do they think of the Dravidian movement?
04:22 How do they think of Tamil Nadu's fight for, you know, not earlier in the Dravidian movement,
04:28 in the 60s, they talked of secessionism.
04:30 Now it's more of autonomy as a state within the federal setup.
04:34 You want to have your rights and you see yourself as a powerful state in that regard and your
04:39 own right to not have Hindi imposed.
04:41 You know, language imposition is a big issue.
04:44 Even today, it echoes even in the next generation.
04:46 So whether DMK or AADMK, there is a common value-based sort of set that undergirds your
04:53 mind and as a voter, you vote based on that.
04:56 So if the BJP truly wants to expand its space, and it's working hard on that, it has to grapple
05:02 with this.
05:03 It might require a leadership change in the future, unless Mr. Annamalai is able to step
05:06 up and change his modus operandi.
05:09 So for example, in this case, they have been working not just at the highest level with
05:13 Annamalai, but ICS as a whole force, what they have been doing with the help of the
05:18 RSS, for example, quietly and at the village level, promoting Hindu festivals, temple worship,
05:24 idol worship, those things.
05:25 And thereby people are projecting and we hear also from the ground that this time,
05:30 there is a fair chance that they may expand their vote share.
05:33 Although there is again a lot of hype about whether they will win a large number of seats
05:37 and so forth.
05:38 I think that is looking like extremely remote possibility.
05:40 As Mr. Muralitharan said, the fight continues to be essentially between the DMK and the
05:44 AADMK when you're talking about seat numbers.
05:46 But for the BJP, they have to play the long game.
05:49 I believe they're trying, but it's going to be an uphill task because they have to understand
05:53 the psyche of the voter, what is the gravity and movement offer?
05:57 How can the Hindutva politics or the BJP's policies offer an alternative?
06:01 And how do you slowly expand that space for yourself in the state when you've caused a
06:05 rupture with the AADMK and now you're going alone by yourself, you have to win the ideological
06:11 battle, you have to win hearts and minds.
06:13 That's the only way you'll do it.
06:14 And you may not do it in this election.
06:16 You may succeed in at least halfway getting there by 2047 or beyond.
06:22 Absolutely.
06:23 And as Mr. Narayan is saying, the BJP's long-term strategy, if we talk about the RSS,
06:29 it's not going to be focused on the immediate results.
06:32 If the RSS was formed in 1925 and how it has advanced its policies, the Jan Sangh came
06:37 along, and then the BJP, that has changed and is now in power.
06:40 And next year, 100 years, the RSS will be completed.
06:43 So, obviously, the BJP is going to be in the south.
06:46 If it has its footprints in Karnataka and the government has been in Karnataka, it has
06:52 its presence in Goa, then it will target Tamil Nadu step by step.
06:56 This time, it will learn, but the same thing is that it will increase its vote share independently.
07:01 So, for the next time, the Vidhan Sabha elections and the Lok Sabha elections after that, it
07:06 can hope for something.
07:07 This is the tactics that the BJP has in West Bengal.
07:10 And as Mr. Narayan is saying, the Hindu festival is to be held in small villages, to meet people
07:16 there, to set up branches, to open a love school.
07:19 So, all these tactics, obviously, will be adopted in Tamil Nadu as well.
07:23 So, no doubt, this time, but for the long term, it will be the BJP's plan.
07:27 Absolutely, Yogesh.
07:28 And as far as the optics also go, the BJP has not left any stone unturned.
07:33 I mean, we saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi also taking a dip, you know, at Rameshwaram,
07:39 then heading towards the temple and offering prayers.
07:42 You mentioned rightly about Sengol, which came to the parliament, all these things.
07:46 And for a BJP, of course, any other party.
07:49 Sorry to interrupt you, but this religious sentiment that we are talking about, the easiest
07:54 way is that people's beliefs are not being violated.
07:58 And how to connect with people, and at the same level, or at the same field, the BJP
08:05 starts and plays on the same ground.
08:08 The other issues are fine, there is development with it, there are other things, we will increase
08:14 the Tamilian language, we will do something for that.
08:17 It connects with it.
08:18 But its primary focus was on religious sentiment.
08:21 See, I mean, people have religion as the opium of masses, is not wrong also.
08:29 Down South also, both gentlemen would agree here that the religious sentiments are also
08:33 very important.
08:35 But as far as Mr. Molitirand mentioned that the literacy aspect, they are not going to
08:40 cut into the fact that, he is a Hindu, he is a Muslim, so let's change our vote share.
08:44 In fact, rather the BJP, Mr. Molitarand, I'm coming to you and please correct me if I'm
08:48 wrong, the BJP will have to change its course if it wants to.
08:53 We might see 10 years down the line, a different BJP in South and a different BJP in North
08:59 because they have to tolerate with a dissenting voice, whereas a college student is standing
09:05 and saying, I support Gaza.
09:06 You don't have to put a UAP on that.
09:08 That can happen in Kerala.
09:11 You need to have an open forum for dissenting voices in Tamil Nadu, where both DMK and AI
09:17 and MK are ready to listen to the masses and incorporate what they are saying.
09:22 Actually, they tried this, they tried this in what I say in North East, also they also
09:28 tried it in the South, also in the Goa and all those things.
09:31 This is the beef issue.
09:32 We talked about the beef issue.
09:34 They have different statements, BJP is having different statements in the North.
09:38 They have different statements for the North East and the Goa.
09:41 Politics.
09:42 Absolutely.
09:43 Mr. Molitarand, thank you so much for patiently waiting.
09:45 I was meaning to ask you, earlier one of the political analysts said that because of the
09:52 division and separation of the BJP and AI, ADMK, it is the BJP which will gain the ground
10:00 as far as the vote share is concerned, if not in proceeds.
10:03 How do you see it and what is the public sentiment on ground?
10:07 See, let's understand this is an election for the parliament and it's not a local assembly
10:12 election.
10:13 The gain they are going to have, see, it's about projecting who is your prime minister.
10:17 And obviously, the Indy alliance does not have a candidate whom they are projecting
10:21 as the prime minister.
10:22 So, obviously, Mr. Modi is, it's not that, it's ideology which is hated, the Modi per
10:27 se may not be hated to that extent.
10:30 So, having said that, the BJP might grow a bit because there is anti-incumbency in Tamil
10:35 Nadu.
10:36 There is people are a little upset about, you know, DMK on their promises and what they
10:40 have gone back.
10:41 But it also hurt some Hindu sentiments to an extent.
10:44 And BJP has used that, you know, at least to make little headway.
10:48 For example, the Sanatana Dharma quote by Mr. Stalin's son, Mr. Udainidhi Stalin.
10:54 So, these are things which has worked in their favor a little bit.
10:57 But only 2026, we need to wait and see in the assembly election, whether this is completely
11:03 converted into vote share for BJP.
11:05 Today, they have alliances and things like that, a little bit of anti-incumbency play.
11:09 Yes, they will grow.
11:10 There is no doubt about it because they are in the ground and Annamalai is making a lot
11:15 of noise.
11:16 And that will help them to grow to a certain extent.
11:18 But how much will that, you know, transfer into votes, we have to wait and see.
11:23 Because, you know, the problem with BJP or their strength of BJP is, they got all the
11:29 media on their side.
11:30 And the media is helping them.
11:32 You know, even before the actual opinion polls came out, some of the media, which actually
11:38 one of the media is like, one of the owner of the media is a candidate for NDA.
11:43 So, they have been, you know, projecting that BJP has grown from 3% party to 18% party.
11:49 So, when you have that kind of help, you know, that kind of optics in place, and definitely,
11:54 you know, that's advantage.
11:55 And I mean, I'm not saying that they're not grown.
11:59 They would have grown differently.
12:00 But will that impact the, I mean, their seat share in this election is, I don't think so.
12:09 I don't think they're really going to make an impact.
12:11 What is there for AIADMK there?
12:14 Okay, now AIADMK was very firm when they said…
12:18 More seats than what is there for AIADMK?
12:21 Now, okay, now, AIADMK is in a tricky situation.
12:24 AIADMK could not form the alliance, which they really wanted to.
12:28 They wanted the PMK party and probably the VCK to come together, which is normally those two parties are in loggerheads.
12:35 So, they could not, you know, achieve either.
12:38 PMK went and joined the BJP and the VCK decided to stay with the DMK.
12:45 And the DMK is a formidable alliance.
12:47 You know, you have the DMK, which had garnered close something at 30% MAGA vote share.
12:52 Then you have the Congress around 10%.
12:54 Then you have the other parties like VCK, CPIM, etc., all contributing.
12:59 And they are at a formidable 40-43%.
13:01 Now, that's what is going to be difficult for AIADMK to fight or to win against.
13:08 And because of that, AIADMK will remain number two.
13:12 And number three will be probably taken by BJP.
13:15 Because the other party, the NAM Tamilar Katchi, who had 10% vote share prior to this election,
13:21 may not garner so much because they normally talk about Tamil nationalism
13:25 and they are more of a regional party contesting for assembly selections and not in the national play.
13:32 So, that's how it looks like.
13:33 AIADMK will be second, but it will be not as many seats as they would love to.
13:40 They will be diminished to something 10 or less than 10.
13:43 That's my prediction.
13:44 Right. Mr. Pulwitharan, thank you. Please stay with us.
13:48 I will take a quick question from Narayan Lakshmanji.
13:52 Narayan Lakshman, Senior Associate Editor there with us, The Hindu.
13:56 Mr. Lakshman, if we take a holistic, a bigger picture, be it southern part of India, be it northern part of India,
14:05 the concept of freebies has often divided the states, the electorate.
14:11 I mean, I still distinctly remember the gifting of TV, television sets.
14:16 TV, pressure cookers.
14:18 Down south. And now in the north, you have ration, you have all sorts of cycle, you have laptops, you name it,
14:25 and they are ready to dole it out. More so in assembly elections.
14:29 I was covering Rajasthan election with our colleague and I was surprised to see that they were ready to give you laptops,
14:34 mobile phones, admission in colleges and whatnot.
14:38 For a country as big as India, Mr. Lakshman, how do you see this freebie concept playing out?
14:45 Certainly not a welfare scheme that the government is launching before the elections.
14:50 So how do we read into it and is it really required?
14:54 Well, I think that is the critical point that you made just now, which is you have to distinguish between freebies and welfare politics.
15:01 So every country, if we just step back for a second and look at the global history of development, how countries, other countries developed,
15:09 they all had some version of a welfare state where they protected certain vulnerable parts of their population.
15:15 They even protected their own industry. So you can go from freebies to the question of protectionism,
15:20 where even Japan, Korea, which developed during the late 20th century, they protected through the Zaibatsu and Chebol.
15:27 They had some protections in place. Similarly, even in the UK, even in the US, which is a free market economy,
15:33 you always have welfare goods being given to those who are vulnerable.
15:37 For example, unemployment safety, social security nets, or for the elderly, you have Medicare and MediClaim in the US.
15:43 So these are not new. I think in India, it's reached a slightly runaway proportion because, as you said,
15:51 it's gone into all kinds of goods which have nothing to do with the welfare of families that are near or above, just above the poverty line.
15:59 You want to provide welfare goods which relate to either nutrition, health, education, or a broader conception of human rights and dignity
16:08 and what the state is supposed to give these vulnerable communities. Tamil Nadu, in many ways, started out with good intentions.
16:16 So it was the pioneer for the noon meal scheme, the midday meal scheme. Kamaraj himself started it. MGR made it really big.
16:24 And then the World Bank and the Supreme Court of India made it mandatory for all states. It became explosive.
16:29 So from that very worthy intervention, which improved nutrition outcomes, health care outcomes,
16:34 and even brought about inter-caste harmony in many states because children sat together and ate a hot meal from different societal groups,
16:42 it then went on to very different kinds of goods because you've seen, as you said, pre-election and before the model code of conduct kicks in,
16:50 you're allowed to make all kinds of promises, distribute goodies, and win over voters.
16:54 So on the one hand, it began very strongly towards the welfare of the poorer families.
17:01 And on the other hand, it became a dangerous, almost democracy-threatening practice in terms of populism.
17:08 So India is now having that debate at a national level. The South has certainly gone far in terms of this welfare thinking to the point where in Tamil Nadu itself,
17:16 in 2001, the state itself nearly went bankrupt because of how much expenditure happened.
17:21 And then there were all kinds of reforms that happened after that. In fact, Jalalitha and the ADMK helped with the reform part of it.
17:27 So it has been a tightrope. It has been a backward, sort of a back and forth in terms of fiscal policies.
17:33 How much should you spend? But at the end of the day, today, the mood, if the BJP nationwide is leading the charge,
17:40 it looks like the mood is tipping towards competition, the free market, providing certain goods like roads and ports and infrastructure,
17:50 but not going overboard on the freebies. On the one hand, you say that, but on the other hand, many states are still doing it.
17:56 I think the BJP itself in many states and at the national level is doing it. So I think it's a debate in progress.
18:02 Absolutely. And obviously, this question has been raised many times that why doesn't the election commission step in in a way,
18:09 intervene, what will be the freebies, the matter has gone to the Supreme Court, and what will be the welfare schemes,
18:17 why is there no clear-cut distinction in them? So obviously, this is a big issue.
18:23 Mr. Mulli Dharan is with us. We would like to see a little bit of the whole South from you.
18:28 We want to understand. BJP has said that 400 par. Many political analysts are saying that this is a tactic,
18:36 as it is said in marketing, how much percentage you have to grow, but you know how much you have to come.
18:42 But psychologically, to impact you or to tell people, these numbers are given.
18:47 But what do you see in the South that this time BJP can do a little better than the last time? What is your analysis?
18:56 It will be. There can be a difference in a couple of seats. I mean, people can win here.
19:02 But 400 nationally, that will be difficult. I don't think that's going to be easy because you see,
19:11 in 2014, it will be decreasing. The second is the anti-incumbency across India.
19:19 And see, the beauty of democracy is like whenever we have a party which has ruled us for a certain number of years,
19:26 and we feel they're going in the wrong direction, we should stop that. And there should be a change.
19:32 Like, we look at Tamil Nadu, whenever ADMK or DMK, when they come to power, they are five-year term.
19:37 And if they make a mistake on the fifth year, I mean, in their tenure, automatically DMK comes into power,
19:43 or ADMK comes to power. We have an alternative force coming in. So, democracy is always under check.
19:49 Nobody goes overboard. Sometimes, you know, ADMK gets two terms together. But third term, ADMK comes back.
19:55 So, these checks and balances are required. We know all these parties. None of them is like, you know,
19:59 holier than thou. Not everybody is like, you know, not corrupt, etc. They are corrupt and things like that.
20:05 So, we are going to decide on the better or the lesser evil among the evil.
20:11 So, that's how we've been voting. So, I think that has to happen in the centre also.
20:15 Whatever seats they're going to get from the south, it's going to be minuscule. It's not going to compensate.
20:20 If they're going to have a huge setback in UP, you know, UP has 80 seats.
20:24 This time, they'll have a little difficulty. Last time, everyone was different.
20:28 You had separately, you know, SP was separate and Congress was separate and BJP was separate.
20:34 So, there was a cakewalk for them. But this time, you have Congress and I think SP together.
20:38 So, because of that, they might have less seats. At least, you know, 30% seats might be less.
20:44 So, where will they get that deficit from? Look at the other states. I mean, Maharashtra,
20:50 they have totally destroyed that state, the political system. Because half of them is already in BJP.
20:58 And states like, you know, Rajasthan, etc. And let's not forget, Maharashtra is the number one state.
21:03 And definitely, I would put that in par with any other southern state in terms of literacy and in terms of, you know, intellectuality.
21:11 And they're not going to vote the same way how they voted in the last election.
21:15 And most of the states, there is a lot of issues which BJP has not addressed.
21:20 Issues of even the northeastern states like Manipur, etc. Unemployment is one.
21:25 There are many issues which BJP has not really walked the talk.
21:30 And when there are issues like that, so the numbers which are going to go down, that needs to be compensated.
21:37 And health is not definitely going to help them in that matter.
21:41 So, we will see, we should see, you know, let's say, it's not a complete majority.
21:49 The BJP should be dependent on other states or other parties to reach that magic figure.
21:55 Only then, you know, there would be some change at the governance level and the policy level.
22:02 And totally the country doesn't go in a different direction, authoritarian direction.