Byron Nelson Golf Preview: Key Factors for Success
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00:00So, Keith, now we go this week, of course, to the Byron Nelson, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson,
00:08new name, but a staple on the PGA Tour in the Dallas area.
00:12What do folks need to know about the track this week out in Texas?
00:15Well, let me just break it down real quick with three keys.
00:19The first one is, is that this is the seventh longest golf course on tour, and we're talking
00:23about TPC Craig Ranch, where they're going to play par 71, 7,400 plus yards.
00:29And these guys, last year, the event was plagued by rain when Jason Day won, and they've
00:34got rain again this week.
00:36They've got over six inches of rain leading up to the event, and it's supposed to rain
00:39through all four rounds.
00:41So length is going to be a huge factor.
00:43Of course, that leads me into point two, which is in the approach game, the length of this
00:48golf course has over a third of the approach shots coming in from over 200 yards.
00:53So we need our long iron and our mid iron players.
00:56And the third thing is, is that this is a complete birdie fest.
01:00TPC Lee, KH Lee won back-to-back years, Jason Day won last year.
01:04The average winning score is 25 under par.
01:07This is a race to 30 birdies in one week, and it's going to be wet.
01:10So you've got to have the guys that can really score and light up the leaderboard if you're
01:15going to keep up and be anywhere near a chance of winning come Sunday afternoon.
01:20Let's take a look at some of the favorites in this tournament here, Keith, at under 25
01:23to 1.
01:24Let's take a look at Scott, Zalatoris, Day, Kim, and Spieth.
01:27Are we headhunting for some of the superstars in this tournament?
01:30Thank goodness, Scotty Sheffley is out here with a plus 220 price.
01:33Looks like the field is wide open.
01:35Of the favorites here, who are you looking to maybe strike on?
01:38Oh, I'll tell you what, Donnie, I do not like the favorites this week.
01:42A lot of them are plagued by issues, which are going to cause a problem that go back
01:46to those three keys.
01:47I mean, Jordan Spieth, he's missed three of his last five cuts.
01:50Yes, he's won twice in seven years.
01:52I can't see how he's the favorite in any tournament, even in his hometown.
01:56Siwoo Kim is another guy.
01:58He can't score with the putter.
01:59The best ball striker in the field, and if you're going to make 30 subpar scores, you're
02:03going to have to make some putts.
02:05Jason Day, he's been awful on approach.
02:08I mean, he's been really poor with his iron game, and as a result, I just don't see him
02:13being an option.
02:14And then Will Zalatoris, again, like Siwoo Kim with the putter, I'm looking a little
02:18bit further down the board when I get to my early leads.
02:22When you look at Jason Day, he won last year, snapping a long-losing skid.
02:27He comes back with that second-best price, tied for the second-best price at 18-to-1.
02:32So, Keith, the early leans on the early line.
02:35Who gets your attention if you're not looking at the favorites?
02:39I'm looking right there in the middle of the board, and I think there's some awesome value.
02:43For a guy like Thomas Dietrich, who played well last week at the Zurich with his partner
02:47Bobby McIntyre.
02:48Again, filling up the cup last week at the Zurich is a good thing to see when you're
02:52heading into this kind of birdie fest.
02:54He was 17th at the Valspar.
02:56He was 2nd in Houston, and of course, last week, he was 8th at Zurich.
03:00The other guy I'm looking at a little bit further down the betting board, and that's
03:03Mark Hubbard.
03:04And a lot of people are talking about him.
03:06He opened the week at plus 7,000.
03:08He's already dropped 10 points down to plus 6,000.
03:10I mean, this guy's a hot commodity.
03:13He as well, he was 3rd place with Ryan Brehm, and no offense to Ryan Brehm, but I think
03:18Mark Hubbard was definitely the horse at the Zurich last week.
03:21This guy, he's made every cut this year, 11 in a row, and a lot of them have been inside
03:25the top 30.
03:26I love Mark Hubbard to fill up the cup all week down there in Dallas.