Mimpi Wujudkan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 8% di Era Prabowo-Gibran
Presiden terpilih Prabowo Subianto yakin mampu membuat ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh 8 persen dalam tiga tahun sejak ia menjabat. Bahkan, Prabowo mengklaim pertumbuhan ekonomi bisa melampaui 8 persen dalam satu periode masa jabatannya.
Namun, ia menekankan pertumbuhan itu tak bisa dicapai dalam satu tahun. Setidaknya membutuhkan waktu sekitar tiga tahun. Menurut Prabowo, berbagai program yang telah dijalankan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) akan dilanjutkan oleh pemerintahannya nanti. Di antaranya hilirisasi dan swasembada pangan hingga energi yang dinilai sebagai kunci utama untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi hingga 8 persen.
Namun, ia menekankan pertumbuhan itu tak bisa dicapai dalam satu tahun. Setidaknya membutuhkan waktu sekitar tiga tahun. Menurut Prabowo, berbagai program yang telah dijalankan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) akan dilanjutkan oleh pemerintahannya nanti. Di antaranya hilirisasi dan swasembada pangan hingga energi yang dinilai sebagai kunci utama untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi hingga 8 persen.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Economic Growth
00:08Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Qatar Economic Forum.
00:11President-elect Prabowo Supianto is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth will reach 8%
00:16in the first three years of his presidency.
00:19Food production and biodiesel production are considered to be one of the main drivers
00:24to reach the target of economic growth.
00:31President-elect Prabowo Supianto is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth will reach 8%
00:36in the first two to three years of his presidency.
00:40Prabowo said that when he attended Qatar Economic Forum.
00:44Prabowo insisted that food production and biodiesel production will be one of the main drivers
00:50to reach the target of economic growth.
00:53Because the use of biodiesel can reduce the import of oil in Indonesia.
00:58In addition, the government will also continue the hylidation policy of President Joko Widodo.
01:05The policy includes banning the export of raw minerals, including nickel,
01:09so that it can be processed in the country and become a higher value item.
01:15I've talked to my experts, I've studied the figures,
01:20I'm very confident we can easily achieve 8% and I'm determined to go beyond.
01:27Downstreaming will take several years.
01:30What will be a growth driver in the first years will be our concentration on agriculture,
01:44food production, food distribution and energy.
01:52We want to go green in a very quick way.
01:57Throughout the first quarter of 2024, Indonesia's economy grew 5.11% year on year.
02:04Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia targets economic growth of 4.7% and 5.5% throughout this year.
02:12Jakarta, IDX Channel.
02:22Yes, Mr. Lestianto discusses our topic this time.
02:25The dream is to create an 8% economic growth in the era of Prabowo-Gibran.
02:29We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Akbar Johan,
02:32General Chairman of the Indonesian Association and Founder of Alfi.
02:35Good morning, Mr. Akbar.
02:38Good morning, Mr. Fras.
02:40Good health.
02:41Good health, Mr. Akbar.
02:42Thank you for your time.
02:44Next, we will have Mr. Eko Lestianto.
02:47He is the Deputy Director of Indep.
02:49Good morning, Mr. Eko.
02:50Good morning, Mr. Fras.
02:52Good morning, Mr. Akbar.
02:55Good health for you this morning.
02:58Thank you for your presence.
02:59Let's go to Mr. Eko first.
03:00It's about the review.
03:02What do you think about Indonesia's current economic growth pattern?
03:07Will the current government's energy transition to leadership immediately?
03:13As mentioned earlier, our topic this time is 8%.
03:16What is Indonesia's economic growth target?
03:19Mr. Eko, please.
03:21Okay, Mr. Fras.
03:23If we review the government's progress and economic achievements
03:29in the past few years,
03:32especially yesterday,
03:33our growth was actually at 5%.
03:37So we can see from time to time
03:40that there are some basic conditions that can accelerate the economy.
03:44Mr. Jokowi has tried to do it,
03:46but so far, the achievement is only 5%.
03:51And yesterday, also because of COVID-19,
03:54plans for acceleration were finally delayed.
03:59And if we review again,
04:01especially in Tribulan I,
04:03our growth trend is actually slowing down.
04:06If we look at this year,
04:08the target is 5.2%.
04:10But yesterday, in Tribulan I,
04:12there was a moment of fasting and voting.
04:15But it turns out that the achievement is only 5.11%.
04:18It's still below 5.2% of the target in APBN.
04:22So the trend is slowing down.
04:24But no matter what,
04:27this is an effort from the new government
04:31to encourage and give optimism
04:34for a much higher growth target
04:37than the current achievements.
04:41And one of the sectors that contributes,
04:44as we know, Indonesia is related to food distribution
04:48or related to business activities.
04:50In your opinion,
04:51is 8% one of the sectors that we need to arrange better?
04:57Or how, Mr. Eko?
04:59Yes, of course, it's not easy to achieve 8%.
05:02If we only do business as usual,
05:04we will definitely not be able to achieve it.
05:06So we need new moves from the government,
05:10which can offer something
05:12that can be more accelerated than the previous Patriot.
05:17And in my opinion,
05:18the strategy to choose food is one of them,
05:21which is promised in the eight programs of Mr. Prabowo Gribran.
05:26The third program is related to food.
05:29Staying on the land, productivity, etc.
05:32I think the agricultural sector needs to be accelerated
05:35in many contexts,
05:36especially for food supply in the country.
05:40Of course, we have to try to encourage it together.
05:44Because this is very important.
05:46But if it's not accelerated enough,
05:49it's still very difficult to achieve 8% in the next few years.
05:55Okay, and remembering that Indonesia is a large island country,
05:59of course, food supply is a very crucial issue.
06:02Let's go to Mr. Akbar Johan.
06:04What is your view, Mr. Akbar?
06:06What is the condition of the national logistics sector so far?
06:12Yes, thank you, Mr. Pras.
06:15I think if you look at the synergy of the growth of the logistics sector,
06:23of course, as a pre-economy hub and as an enabler function,
06:30the synergy of logistics continues to grow.
06:34Of course, this is driven by the strength of the people's consumption
06:41and also by the realization of investments,
06:46whether it's foreign investment or direct investment,
06:52and also domestic investment.
06:54And of course, it is also positively impacted by international trade.
07:01So, I think with the four components,
07:07our national logistics synergy will certainly grow
07:13with our economic growth which had reached 5.11% in the first quarter of 2024.
07:21And I think if you look at this national growth,
07:26it can give a positive signal
07:30compared to other Asian countries whose growth is far below 4%.
07:37I think this is a very strong foundation
07:40to be able to be sure
07:44that the ambition to grow 8% of economic growth
07:50can also be felt from our national logistics, Mr. Pras.
07:55Well, that's it.
07:56If we also have opportunities,
07:59how can we support economic growth even faster,
08:02even up to 8%?
08:04Is there a bottleneck in which area
08:07when we talk about the national logistics sector?
08:09Because we already have innovations from the government related to logistics.
08:14Yes, when we talk about national logistics or national supply chains,
08:18this is actually no different than
08:21how the government manages the national logistics ecosystem itself.
08:28Some time ago, how the regulations of several ministries overlapped.
08:34How 26,000 containers were maintained
08:38both in Tanjung Kuyuk Port and Tanjung Perak Port.
08:42And here, I think the coordination between the ministries
08:47to be able to eliminate the sectoral ego,
08:50even the regional ego,
08:53should be understood by the current government,
08:58even the new government, Mr. Pras.
09:01Because actually, the main driver
09:04of the smooth distribution of our goods
09:09is the fastest and least expensive
09:15is how the regulation is pro-business.
09:19Compared to the connection infrastructure
09:23that needs to build connectivity between the ports,
09:26but of course it needs a small funding
09:30and also a relatively long time.
09:33But if the regulation can be organized,
09:37can be coordinated massively
09:40and goodwillingly from all ministries,
09:44I don't think it will be a blocker,
09:48but it will be a stopper from the speed of our economy.
09:53The impact of almost three months of the 26,000 containers
09:59will certainly have a very negative multiplier effect.
10:03How the reputation of international trade
10:07will also be affected, Mr. Pras.
10:09And also the value of the economy.
10:11Obstacles in the manufacturing sector,
10:13because it is generally made of steel,
10:16this industry also has extraordinary implications, Mr. Pras.
10:20Okay, that's it.
10:21Coordination, again we talk about between the leaders,
10:25in the sense that the related ministries,
10:27when it looks like this is still a classic problem that has not been solved.
10:32We will discuss it later in the next segment.
10:34And we will be right back.
10:37Next segment
10:56Yes, talking about the logistics sector
10:58which is the backbone of Indonesia's economic movement.
11:02As Mr. Akbar has said,
11:04it looks like there is still a bottleneck related to coordination.
11:08Again, we are talking about sectoral coordination.
11:11Let's go straight to Mr. Eko Mistyanto,
11:15who is the Deputy Director of Indef.
11:17What do you think of Indef itself,
11:19related to the classic problem that seems to still happen to this day, Mr. Eko?
11:25Yes, in the context of the economy,
11:27of course, distribution is a very vital part of the economy.
11:31There is production, there is distribution, and there is consumption.
11:35Well, this strategy is largely based,
11:39especially in the government, Mr. Prabowo,
11:41on the production side,
11:42the supply, which is more related to production.
11:46But in fact, we also have to try to accelerate
11:50how our distribution side,
11:53as Mr. Akbar said earlier, is pro-business.
11:56Don't let events like yesterday
12:00or the lack of coordination and calculation
12:06in calculating the impact of a policy
12:08end up in a situation of confusion
12:11and the interruption of various production processes.
12:15This is actually an alarm for the future government.
12:19Don't let this happen again.
12:21This is very important.
12:24So, it's very vital.
12:26Then, our classic problem is coordination.
12:28So, in my opinion, the efficiency aspect,
12:32especially now in the digital era,
12:34should be able to serve the business side in the future,
12:38which is easier and faster.
12:43But will that be a very crucial problem?
12:46If, as Mr. Prabowo said,
12:488 percent can be achieved in three years
12:51in his leadership era.
12:52Meanwhile, the work related to coordination
12:55has been going on for years.
12:57Then, on the one hand,
12:59do we need a new shortcut
13:01that needs to be laid by the government?
13:04So that it can really be achieved
13:06without disturbing the government to achieve 8 percent.
13:10To achieve 8 percent,
13:13actually the 8 percent in economic growth
13:16is not something special in the context of Indonesia
13:19in the 1990s.
13:20It's normal to grow 8 to 9 percent.
13:23In 2004, we grew 8.02 percent.
13:26In 1995, we grew 9 percent.
13:28So, there is a history.
13:32And this is repeated by Mr. Prabowo
13:34with the impressive achievements earlier.
13:36But the condition to grow up to 8 percent
13:40requires a truly reliable logistic system,
13:43which is fast.
13:45Because the engine of growth
13:47from the dream of 8 percent growth
13:51is the industry,
13:53where their speed of export,
13:55then trading,
13:57our import export is also fast.
13:59Surely, the engine will not only consume,
14:02if it can grow to 8 percent.
14:03Surely, it is the industry,
14:05export, and also the flow of investment
14:07that is even more to us.
14:10Certainly, one of the supporting factors
14:12is the logistic side.
14:13It must be really paid attention to.
14:15Because we know that advanced countries
14:17also if they experience a lag in logistics,
14:19especially when the COVID-19 case yesterday,
14:21the container piled up, no one carried it,
14:24there is an economy that is really slowing down
14:27all over the world.
14:28This should not be repeated.
14:30Do not let Indonesia experience,
14:32actually we can grow higher,
14:34but because the logistics do not get support,
14:36eventually the growth slows down.
14:38Okay.
14:39Pak Bar, this is about logistics.
14:41This is, we can say,
14:43a cross-transportation.
14:45There is land, sea, and air.
14:47In your opinion, what is the real condition like?
14:51How is our national logistics system, Pak Bar?
14:56Yes, Mas.
14:57It has been mentioned earlier,
14:58there is also a background,
15:00there is an extraordinary COVID-19 crisis,
15:02and we are able to get out of that extraordinary event.
15:07Okay.
15:08It means,
15:09it is necessary to build a sense of crisis from the government.
15:15Why do we have to wait for such an event?
15:18When it is normal,
15:20we can do the same thing.
15:23So, I feel, Mas,
15:25earlier we talked about coordination,
15:27it is time for the government,
15:29Pak Robowo,
15:30with a clear vision,
15:32and also a high level of self-confidence,
15:36to reach 8%,
15:38even though you said earlier that 8% is not a bombastic thing,
15:43we have been through it,
15:45we need to create a permanent and independent body,
15:49which focuses on managing our national supply chain.
15:54Because, frankly,
15:56coordinating logistic issues like earlier,
16:00only one at a time,
16:02it has overshadowed the function of national logistics,
16:07how it goes in the port, and so on.
16:11This is very crucial.
16:13I feel, maybe even the Ministers,
16:17they have too many functions and jobs,
16:22so this national logistics is not felt as critical as the economy.
16:30Actually, many SMACs in Asian countries,
16:33even in Australia,
16:34also have a special body,
16:37which is independent, permanent,
16:39and the report goes straight to the President.
16:41This makes the function of this body,
16:45can be an enabler,
16:47can be a body of coordination,
16:49to be able to manage the flow of communication,
16:53issues and solutions,
16:55towards the ministries.
16:57Because this logistics, Mr. Fras,
17:00is multisectoral.
17:02There are 15 ministries and 3 institutions
17:05that are involved in this logistics ecosystem.
17:10So, if I agreed with Mr. Eko,
17:13this 8% can be realized with what?
17:17The strengthening of our national supply chain.
17:20And don't forget,
17:22our national supply chain is also very dependent
17:26to enter the global supply chain ecosystem.
17:29If not in the global supply chain,
17:31at least in the regional supply chain.
17:33How can global issues also be able to directly
17:37address internal issues?
17:41How can the shortage of ships,
17:43the shortage of containers,
17:45can also be coordinated like this, Mr. Fras.
17:48Alfi, so far,
17:49is there any thoughts or ideas
17:51that have been conveyed to the government
17:53related to innovation or solutions
17:56to deal with national logistics problems
17:58that are comprehensive, integrated,
18:00then finally this becomes a common solution,
18:03as involved,
18:04because there are 15 ministries and institutions involved.
18:09I think Alfi has been very proactive
18:13in encouraging all government stakeholders.
18:17Lastly,
18:19how the implementation of the digitalization business process,
18:24which we call the National Logistics Ecosystem,
18:27can really be implemented
18:30in terms of connectivity,
18:32both sea ports, airports,
18:35even the inter-land connectivity with land,
18:38Alfi has been very positive.
18:41We even encourage
18:43the implementation of the National Logistics Ecosystem,
18:46which means there is a single platform.
18:50There is a platform that integrates
18:53the 15 ministries and 3 institutions
18:57so that it doesn't have to be face-to-face.
19:00But in this single platform NLA,
19:04it also involves banking,
19:07it also involves business,
19:09shipping, and logistics.
19:11And one more thing, Mr. Fras,
19:14banking access also needs to be taken into account
19:18for logistics entrepreneurs,
19:20starting from ports, operators,
19:22even shipping lines as carriers,
19:25because so far,
19:27logistics entrepreneurs in the port ecosystem,
19:30one of the bottlenecks is banking access
19:34which is still considered as a short-term business,
19:40not a long-term business.
19:43For example, the effort to buy a ship
19:46or fund a ship as a carrier
19:49to strengthen the sea fleet in the archipelago,
19:52this is still considered as a truck purchase
19:55which is only 5 years in terms of credit,
20:00whereas the purchase of a ship is much more expensive
20:04and should be for the acceleration of ROI or ROA,
20:08Return On Investment,
20:10this should also be long-term.
20:12These accesses can grow banks,
20:16national logistics entrepreneurs,
20:18to get a kick out of the national economic growth
20:23that we are planning to create by 8%.
20:25Okay, Mr. Eko, based on the data that Mr. Akbar has provided,
20:30in your opinion,
20:31do we really need a special body?
20:34I was also offended by what Mr. Akbar said,
20:36so that we can harmonize
20:39and be a leader in all the interests
20:42or policies in the logistics sector.
20:46Yes, if it can be done, that's good.
20:49Because earlier, integrating 15 ministries
20:52with 3 institutions,
20:53that was really a lot.
20:55And when one ministry makes a rule
20:57which then turns out to be less holistic
21:00in this context,
21:01looking at it from various angles,
21:03so that new problems arise.
21:05Because the presence of the body can be one solution.
21:10But of course,
21:11quote-unquote, it must be a professional in it,
21:14who really understands what's inside.
21:16Because this really only serves the business side.
21:21So, this aspect.
21:23And if it becomes a body,
21:25the coordination will be directly with the president.
21:27And that's very possible.
21:29Because logistics is very vital, in my opinion.
21:33Because no matter how we can produce,
21:35no matter how we can expand the market,
21:38but if the logistics are slow,
21:40everything will be messed up.
21:42Optimization of economic growth will be a failure.
21:45Indeed, this is one of the things
21:47that must be really discussed.
21:51What about your own optimism?
21:53With 3 years in the government,
21:55to raise the economy by 8%
21:57with the existing logistics problem until now?
22:01Yes, if we talk about it earlier,
22:04is this realistic enough?
22:06For me, this is not that realistic.
22:08But as a spirit,
22:09because this is the newly elected president,
22:12of course we have to give optimism.
22:14Moreover, this is a presentation in front of the investors
22:17who were invited yesterday.
22:19So, we have to promise a better economic growth
22:22than the current period.
22:23But the context is,
22:25we need a scenario of acceleration.
22:28Where, if I look at it,
22:30the main support sector must be the industry,
22:32returned to its glory to grow above 20%.
22:37Even when we grow to 8%,
22:39when it's a new order,
22:41the industry contributes around 30%.
22:44So, it must be returned again.
22:46Of course, the industry needs logistics support,
22:49a really smooth supply chain,
22:51pro-business.
22:53That's the role.
22:55The logistics side can support
22:57for the future economic growth.
22:59Okay, Mr. Iqbal,
23:01what is your optimism with the current problem?
23:04Because there will be a solution
23:06that will be bridged by the new government
23:08for the logistics sector.
23:10Yes, for optimism,
23:12I'm quite optimistic.
23:14Even though, of course,
23:16it will be accompanied by hard work,
23:19with some PR.
23:21Some PR, among others,
23:23is legal certainty.
23:25How legal certainty works,
23:27there is a transformation of bureaucracy,
23:31there is a reform of bureaucracy,
23:33and also the focus is
23:35efficiency and productivity.
23:38Mr. Pras, the next PR is
23:40how the productivity of the labor force.
23:43This is how our SDM
23:46must have high competitiveness.
23:49Yes.
23:50We have done training,
23:53even went to the university
23:56to build vocations.
23:58But what is not less important is
24:00the knowledge of human resources
24:02in the bureaucratic sector.
24:04So that the understanding
24:06of SDM bureaucrats
24:08is not wrong.
24:10In the end, the result of the regulation
24:13is not pro-business study.
24:15Because of lack of understanding
24:16on how to issue flyers,
24:18for example, or other regulations.
24:20But what is not less important,
24:22as Mr. Eko said,
24:23is the growth of the manufacturing industry.
24:26How the Chinese country
24:28in the iron industry,
24:30where I work in Krakatoa Steel,
24:32the manufacturing industry
24:34becomes one of the most important pillars
24:37by giving incentives
24:39when the entrepreneurs
24:41can export their goods to other countries.
24:44And now it's shifting, Mr. Pras.
24:46What's amazing is
24:48the incentive is given
24:50when the exporter
24:53exports the finished product.
24:56This is the real threat
24:59to the prosperity of our national products.
25:03Okay, Mr. Pras.
25:04So there is still work to be done,
25:07related to coordination.
25:09And hopefully this will be answered
25:11by the government of Prabowo-Gibran
25:13to support how 8% can be achieved
25:15within 3 years of their government.
25:17Okay.
25:18Mr. Bart, thank you very much for your time.
25:20And also, Mr. Eko, thank you for the review
25:22that you have delivered to the audience today.
25:24Congratulations on your activities again.
25:26Stay healthy.
25:28Thank you, Mr. Pras.
25:29Thank you, Mr. Eko.
25:30Alright, viewers.
25:31It's been an hour.
25:32I'm here with you in Market Review.
25:33I'm Prasetya Wibowo,
25:34Executive Director of Unduderi.
25:36Thank you and see you next time.
25:58Music.