Tahun 2024 menjadi tahun penentu bagi Indonesia, mengingat saat ini adalah masa transisi kepemimpinan nasional. Di mana setiap kebijakan yang diambil Pemerintah Presiden Joko Widodo, akan menjadi pijakan kuat bagi Pemerintahan Presiden Terpilih Prabowo Subianto, dalam menjaga laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tetap positif.
Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat hasil perhitungan pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal kedua tahun 2024, mencapai 5,05% secara tahunan atau melambat dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya yang mencapai 5,11%. BPS juga mencatat deflasi kembali terjadi secara bulanan sebesar 0,03% persen di bulan Agustus 2024. Dengan demikian, deflasi telah terjadi selama 4 bulan berturut-turut dari bulan Mei, Juni, Juli dan Agustus 2024.
Sementara itu, S&P Global merilis Purchasing Manager’s Index atau PMI Manufaktur Indonesia bulan Juli 2024 sebesar 49,3. Level tersebut turun dibandingkan Juni 2024 sebesar 50,7. PMI Manufaktur Indonesia pun ikut mengalami kontraksi untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus 2021, atau setelah bertahan dalam level ekspansi selama 34 bulan berturut-turut.
Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat hasil perhitungan pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal kedua tahun 2024, mencapai 5,05% secara tahunan atau melambat dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya yang mencapai 5,11%. BPS juga mencatat deflasi kembali terjadi secara bulanan sebesar 0,03% persen di bulan Agustus 2024. Dengan demikian, deflasi telah terjadi selama 4 bulan berturut-turut dari bulan Mei, Juni, Juli dan Agustus 2024.
Sementara itu, S&P Global merilis Purchasing Manager’s Index atau PMI Manufaktur Indonesia bulan Juli 2024 sebesar 49,3. Level tersebut turun dibandingkan Juni 2024 sebesar 50,7. PMI Manufaktur Indonesia pun ikut mengalami kontraksi untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus 2021, atau setelah bertahan dalam level ekspansi selama 34 bulan berturut-turut.
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TVTranscript
00:30And now, let's start the market review.
00:42The government has continued to be rigid
00:45by issuing various new terms
00:47to protect the integrity of national economic activities.
00:50This is in line with the increasing pressure
00:53both from the domestic sector,
00:55such as economic growth, deflation,
00:57manufacturing PMI, to global economic conditions.
01:042024 will be a decisive year for Indonesia,
01:07remembering that this is a transitional period
01:10for national leadership,
01:12where every policy taken by President Joko Widodo
01:16will be a strong policy for the presidential government
01:19elected Prabowo Subianto
01:21in keeping Indonesia's economic growth rate positive.
01:25The Statistics Agency or BPS
01:27recorded the economic growth rate of the second quarter of 2024,
01:31which reached 5.05% annually.
01:36The growth rate was slow compared to the previous quarter,
01:39which reached 5.11%.
01:44S&P Global released the Purchasing Manager Index
01:46or PMI Manufaktur Indonesia
01:48in July 2024 was 49.3%.
01:52The level dropped compared to June 2024,
01:55which is at 50.7%.
01:59Thus, PMI Manufaktur Indonesia
02:01underwent a contraction for the first time since August 2021,
02:05or after maintaining an expansion level
02:08for 34 consecutive months.
02:11BPS also recorded a deflation
02:13again monthly at 0.03% in August 2024,
02:18and an inflation rate of 0.87% annually.
02:23Thus, deflation has occurred for 4 consecutive months
02:27from May, June, July, and August 2024.
02:33There was the largest deflation
02:35from food, drink, and tobacco groups.
02:39Meanwhile, unemployment in February 2024
02:42reached 7.2 million people
02:44or an open unemployment rate of 4.82%.
02:49The number of unemployment from high school graduates
02:51was the highest
02:52compared to other educational lines.
02:55From Jakarta,
02:56Team Liputan, IDX Juno.
03:05Next, we will present data
03:06on the trend of Indonesia's economic growth.
03:08You can watch the complete data on your television screen.
03:12From Q1 2023 to Q2 2024,
03:17the fluctuation reached 5.17% in Q2 last year,
03:23but it dropped to 4.94% in Q3 2023.
03:28It rose to 5.11% in Q1 2024,
03:33but in Q2 this year, it dropped to 5.05%.
03:38This is a yearly trend.
03:40Next, for the trading surplus,
03:42this is data from December to July 2024.
03:46It reached its highest level
03:48from December to March 2024,
03:50which is US$4.47 billion.
03:53However, after that,
03:54from April, May, June, and July this year,
03:58our trading surplus
04:00tended to experience pressure
04:02or continue to fall.
04:03As noted,
04:04US$0.47 billion in July 2024.
04:10Ladies and gentlemen,
04:11to discuss our interesting topic today,
04:12JURUS JITU brings Indonesia's economy back up.
04:15We have been connected via Zoom
04:17with Mr. Rian Kiryanto,
04:19Senior Economist and Senior Faculty
04:21from the Indonesia LPPI Development Institute.
04:23Good morning, Rian.
04:25Good morning, Mr. Bras.
04:27How are you, sir?
04:28I'm fine.
04:29Thank you for your time.
04:31We also have Mr. Arief Satria Kurniagung,
04:34Chairperson of UKM, Cooperation and Entrepreneurship
04:38of Indonesia's Young Entrepreneurs Association, or HIPMI.
04:40Good morning, Mr. Arief.
04:42Good morning, Mr. Bras. How are you?
04:44I'm fine, too.
04:45Thank you for your time.
04:47It's interesting to see
04:48what solutions we can provide
04:51to address the current situation.
04:54Mr. Arief, as an entrepreneur,
04:55can you give us a brief review
04:57of your perspective
04:58on Indonesia's current economic situation?
05:02Please.
05:04Thank you, Mr. Bras.
05:06We, from HIPMI, see that
05:08the economic growth,
05:09although we are still relatively better
05:12than other countries, above 5%,
05:14but we see a tendency to stagnant.
05:17After that, we are also
05:19facing threats
05:21where the number of
05:24middle-income people,
05:27middle-class income,
05:29has also dropped
05:31from 2019 to now.
05:34In my opinion,
05:36we, from HIPMI, need
05:38a comprehensive government policy
05:41that will help
05:44to increase people's income.
05:46After that,
05:47we also have to think
05:49from the MSME sector.
05:51We, from HIPMI,
05:52are currently in the process
05:54of creating a roadmap
05:56for entrepreneurship
05:57to Indonesia in March 2045.
05:59Because when we see
06:01Indonesia in March 2045,
06:02of course there will be
06:04a demographic bonus.
06:05This demographic bonus
06:07can be beneficial
06:09and can also be a problem for us.
06:11Because of that,
06:12we also see entrepreneurship
06:14as one of the important factors
06:17to increase the economy
06:19because entrepreneurship
06:21will open the job market.
06:24Okay, that's it.
06:25Entrepreneurship, as long as it is based
06:27on the MSME sector,
06:28which can support
06:29Indonesia's economic wheel,
06:31Mr. Rian, as an economist,
06:32what do you think about the economic condition?
06:34Some data have shown
06:36that our economic growth
06:37is still at 5%,
06:38but it tends to go down.
06:40Moreover, our trade balance
06:42is also under pressure.
06:44Mr. Rian, please.
06:45In my observation,
06:48for the last 9-10 years,
06:52on average,
06:53we have grown
06:55just right.
06:57Even if it's 5%,
07:00but it's in the corridor
07:02or the lower limit.
07:04So, this gives us
07:06a strong signal
07:08that our engine of growth
07:11is optimum
07:13either 5.0% or 5.1%.
07:16We have never been able to grow evenly.
07:19Even 5.2%
07:21has never been able to grow
07:23on average.
07:24Again, of course,
07:25there is a kind of
07:27quote-unquote
07:29mis-policy
07:30or policy design error.
07:32Why in the last 9 years,
07:35we have only been able to
07:37boost our economy
07:38to a maximum of 5.0% or 5.1%?
07:41Meanwhile,
07:42compared to our peers,
07:44let's say the two countries
07:46behind us,
07:48Vietnam and the Philippines,
07:50I mean,
07:51have been able to grow far above us.
07:53On average,
07:54in the last 2-3 years,
07:56Vietnam has been able to grow 6.5%.
07:58Even the Philippines has been able to grow 7%.
08:00And we are all facing
08:02the same situation.
08:04We are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
08:07We are also affected by
08:09the global geopolitical tensions
08:11and so on.
08:12Back to earlier,
08:14it is true that
08:15if you use the term
08:17a little bit,
08:18a little bit of criticism,
08:20stagnation.
08:21But maybe people who have a positive trend
08:23call it not stagnation,
08:25but stable.
08:27But I agree with Mr. Arief.
08:29We use the term stagnation.
08:31Stagnation means
08:33our economic growth is stuck
08:35at a level of 5%.
08:36And that has to be
08:38our concern.
08:40But especially from decision-making
08:42or policy makers.
08:44In the future,
08:45it can't be like this anymore.
08:47Interesting.
08:48If you say in the last 10 years,
08:50if you can say that,
08:51it means there is a mistake
08:53in policymaking.
08:55Which part is this?
08:57Where is the bottleneck?
08:59We know, Mr. Arief,
09:01Mr. Pras,
09:02the current government
09:04used to give a kind of
09:06promo.
09:08That is, they will build
09:10a massive infrastructure.
09:12Infrastructure all over Indonesia.
09:14First, our critical note is
09:16building infrastructure
09:18the result is not
09:20simultaneous.
09:22It takes years
09:24for us to reap the fruits
09:26of our physical infrastructure.
09:28Second, geographically,
09:30Indonesia's continent
09:32is so vast.
09:34So the infrastructure
09:36that was built massively
09:38still leaves holes.
09:40In other words, not all
09:42TTTs are connected
09:44between one city, one island,
09:46one region.
09:48So this PR is still ongoing.
09:50We start at 5%.
09:52Parallel on that,
09:54at the same time,
09:56even though we are still
09:58heavy in building infrastructure,
10:00there must be
10:02economic sectors
10:04or business sectors
10:06that can reap the fruits.
10:08Especially the most prominent
10:10is manufacturing.
10:12Manufacturing has a capital
10:14but also a work ethic.
10:16In the manufacturing industry,
10:18there are big manufacturers
10:20but there are also manufacturers
10:22in the category of small-medium enterprises.
10:24The group of Arief's friends.
10:26Those are the ones
10:28that are not massively touched.
10:30So it's like
10:32their growth capacity,
10:34their development capacity
10:36is still below
10:38or underutilized.
10:40This is a flashback
10:42of our evaluation
10:44of our economic journey
10:46in the last two periods
10:48of this government.
10:50Okay, the SME sector.
10:52We will see how far the focus
10:54and expectations of SMEs are.
10:56We will discuss in the next segment.
10:58Farrian and Arief, we will take a short break.
11:00Make sure you are still with us.
11:16We are still discussing
11:18with Farrian Kirianto
11:20and Arief from HIPMI.
11:22Arief, can you explain
11:24that the SME sector
11:26is one of the sectors
11:28that has been highlighted
11:30as a buffer for Indonesia's economy
11:32in a critical condition
11:34or stagnation
11:36according to Farrian,
11:38for Indonesia's economic growth.
11:40Can you tell us
11:42how the potential
11:44and potential gaps
11:46have been alleviated?
11:50Yes, Rian.
11:52One of the factors
11:54that can save us
11:56from COVID-19
11:58is the domestic buyback
12:00mostly in SMEs.
12:02But I also agree
12:04with what Farrian said.
12:06The problem
12:08for young people,
12:10especially now,
12:12is SMEs.
12:14Their mentality is traders.
12:16Whereas there is one sector, SMEs,
12:18that we also need to raise.
12:20So, the idea of industrialization
12:22or the decline of the PMI index
12:24in the last few years,
12:26is actually because of that mindset.
12:28Because many people are starting to try,
12:30the mindset is to trade,
12:32not to become a producer.
12:34Why are we selling now?
12:36There is a liberalization movement,
12:38because it started from the mindset.
12:40We are currently trying
12:42to encourage how
12:44the business curriculum
12:46can be started from today.
12:48So, starting from elementary school,
12:50junior high school, senior high school,
12:52how to make it a mandatory curriculum.
12:54We are trying to encourage this
12:56to be introduced to the
12:58recruitment camp.
13:00And then, next year,
13:02we have already started a program
13:04at the University of Merdeka.
13:06So, we want to start changing the mindset
13:08so that we don't always have to be a trader,
13:10but we also have to be a producer.
13:12More or less, that's what we are doing.
13:14Okay. So, it has to do with the scale of the industry.
13:16For example, the PMI manufacturer
13:18that keeps going down.
13:20Maybe the data can be shown
13:22as to how far
13:24it can be felt towards the business world
13:26for the decline of this number of indicators.
13:28As we know, the deflation
13:30in the last four months
13:32as the PMI manufacturer keeps going down.
13:34Yes.
13:36If we look at the deflation,
13:38we also have to see
13:40that on the one hand,
13:42the price is going down, but maybe
13:44the people are not spending as much.
13:46Okay.
13:48We also have to see
13:50maybe there are policies
13:52from the government that are not matching.
13:54And the government also has to consider
13:56there are some policies
13:58that I think need to be postponed.
14:00Like the increase of the PPI to 12%.
14:02Okay.
14:04It will make it harder for the people
14:06and for the business.
14:08Okay. 12% is expected
14:10to be postponed.
14:12Mr. Arian, with some of the conditions
14:14like our economic barometer,
14:16there was an economic growth,
14:18our trade surplus,
14:20the PMI manufacturer,
14:22and the consumer confidence index
14:24is also weakening,
14:26do you think this is already at the yellow signal
14:28that is heading towards the red light signal?
14:30Or what do you think, Mr. Arian?
14:32I think this is a kind of
14:34early warning.
14:36This should not be postponed.
14:38Okay.
14:40We are entering
14:42a transitional period
14:44from the old government
14:46to the new government.
14:48Of course, what we did
14:50in 2024,
14:522023,
14:54is a reference
14:56for the coming government
14:58to close or improve
15:00the gap that is still
15:02open.
15:04What is most disappointing is
15:06when we observe
15:08every day how many
15:10companies,
15:12especially MSMEs,
15:14have started to reduce
15:16production. Some are closing
15:18factories, some are closing shops.
15:20Then there are
15:22complaints from workers
15:24who are not employed in the labor market.
15:26In other words, the unemployment rate is increasing.
15:28The number of jobseekers
15:30is increasing. Every time there is
15:32a job fair, how many thousands
15:34of our young people,
15:36young adults, are looking for
15:38jobs or training.
15:40That must be a kind of
15:42serious note for
15:44the coming government.
15:46For this to be resolved,
15:48at least, I do not say
15:50in the first 100 days, because it is too short.
15:52Maybe in a year or two
15:54in the future, in the new government era.
15:56Second,
15:58maybe it needs to be reviewed.
16:00We are too lazy to
16:02review the policies
16:04that we have designed.
16:06Maybe the policies that we
16:08designed 2, 3, 5 years ago
16:10are mid or suitable
16:12with the era of the past.
16:14But with the passage of time,
16:16changes in the landscape, changes
16:18in the dynamics of society, maybe
16:20the big policies of the government
16:22may not be in
16:24the same condition as now.
16:26So there needs to be a kind of review
16:28and then adjustments are made.
16:30As Mr. Arief said,
16:32in this economic slowdown situation,
16:34is it correct, for example,
16:36that the PPM rate was increased to
16:3812%? That is an issue
16:40that was said by
16:42businessmen who were directly
16:44affected or exposed
16:46to the fiscal policy.
16:48Second,
16:50if it is necessary to increase the tax ratio
16:52to 12%, then how to
16:54still be able to maintain the purchasing power
16:56of the people, especially the middle class
16:58so that they still have
17:00the ability to buy, the ability to consume
17:02so as not to suppress
17:04the business performance
17:06of businessmen,
17:08especially the MSMEs who have been
17:10a kind of backbone
17:12or backbone of Indonesia's economy.
17:14Now, the slowness
17:16and sluggishness and
17:18agility,
17:20how to design policies
17:22in accordance with space and time, as well as the economic situation,
17:24I think it is important,
17:26to be worked on.
17:28I am aware,
17:30maybe this year, because some of our
17:32energy focus is a lot
17:34absorbed in political issues,
17:36so that the issues in the
17:38economic area are relatively
17:40less explored.
17:42So that no one
17:44realizes that the indicators
17:46are the main economic indicators,
17:48which are below the threshold of 50,
17:50the four-month deflation is declining,
17:52the unemployment rate is increasing,
17:54then the NPL rate in the MSMEs
17:56is also increasing.
17:58It is not felt, not realized.
18:00Well, at this time, in this forum,
18:02we actually give a wake-up call,
18:04or it's actually a bell,
18:06to policy makers
18:08to come forward,
18:10these PRs do not continue,
18:12but we ignore one by one.
18:14Okay, this is interesting
18:16So in this transition period,
18:18will we be able to leave a strong policy
18:20for the next government,
18:22or should the next government
18:24review the previous policy
18:26to look for new innovations?
18:28We will discuss in the next segment.
18:30Mr. Arief, we will be back with the audience.
18:32We will be right back after the break.
18:46Thank you for joining us.
18:48We will continue our discussion
18:50with Mr. Arief Satria Kurniagung
18:52from HIPMI.
18:54Mr. Arief, what are the solutions
18:56for the Ninja Road
18:58that can be done immediately
19:00if this is indeed a transition period,
19:02that is, a beacon of hope
19:04for the next government?
19:06Yes, we from HIPMI
19:08are currently quite optimistic
19:10with the government of Mr. Prabowo
19:12and Mr. Gibran in the future.
19:14Because this is the continuation
19:16of the current government.
19:18Of course, we hope
19:20the transition process
19:22will be smoother,
19:24will be smoother
19:26and not long,
19:28not complicated in the process.
19:30Because now it has been shown
19:32that it has been reshuffled.
19:34There are several ministers
19:36who were included from
19:38Mr. Prabowo's team
19:40who may continue in the next cabinet.
19:42Indeed,
19:44what is actually needed
19:46for a government
19:48that is more comprehensive,
19:50as I said earlier,
19:52education equality,
19:54because we need to prepare the SDM
19:56for the demography bonus later.
19:58Then we also need
20:00a policy framework
20:02that will of course be more concrete
20:04for UMKM and IKM,
20:06because right now
20:08we also need to figure out
20:10how this IKM factor
20:12will be implemented again,
20:14not just trade.
20:16Then in the future,
20:18we also plan
20:20next month
20:22to implement
20:24a business plan
20:26to the elected president.
20:28Because right now we see
20:30the government policy
20:32related to business,
20:34especially UMKM,
20:36is still sporadic and not comprehensive.
20:38So we need to figure out
20:40how to make it more comprehensive,
20:42because the number of entrepreneurs
20:44right now is only 3.6% in Indonesia,
20:46whereas in developed countries
20:48it is already more than 10%.
20:50Whereas the point of this economic improvement
20:52is of course
20:54the opening of jobs
20:56that will be determined by the business sector.
20:58That's all from us, sir.
21:00Okay, thank you.
21:02And how, Mr. Rian,
21:04what can you recommend?
21:06So from the big picture,
21:08the policy design
21:10must
21:12be initiated
21:14to be
21:16pro-growth.
21:18Because this is
21:20a political commitment
21:22from Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Gibran
21:24to encourage growth.
21:26At that time, they said 7-8%.
21:28That's right.
21:30Therefore, the capital
21:32for the budget
21:34and the budget for the next year
21:36must be pro-growth.
21:38Secondly,
21:40the policy design
21:42from the fiscal, monetary,
21:44and also from the financial side,
21:46we have three policy areas,
21:48must also support each other
21:50to support this growth
21:52to be higher and more sustainable.
21:54Let's not grow 7%
21:56and then go down again.
21:58But it must be sustainable.
22:00And also inclusive.
22:02Inclusive means
22:04giving impact
22:06to many people, many parties.
22:08Thirdly,
22:10we also need to prepare
22:12our SDM
22:14to have a high sense of entrepreneurship.
22:16This is true, Mr. Sadiq.
22:18I have been concerned
22:20since the old ministries,
22:22maybe 15 years ago,
22:24I have been careful.
22:26Eventually, we will become a trading country.
22:28Because we prefer
22:30to sell things
22:32with a low margin.
22:34If we are trapped
22:36in a trading country situation,
22:38it's dangerous.
22:40Because those who enjoy a higher margin
22:42are the producers.
22:44Most of the producers
22:46are from abroad.
22:48Because we sell imported goods.
22:50This should not happen again.
22:52Therefore, from now on,
22:54we need to plant values
22:56about entrepreneurship.
22:58This is what I think
23:00we lack there.
23:02Because behind entrepreneurship,
23:04there are values about
23:06harmony, about militancy,
23:08about collaboration, synergy,
23:10and so on.
23:12We have a very large budget,
23:14Mr. Arief.
23:16In APPN in 2025,
23:18the allocation of education budget
23:20as far as I remember, the head is 700 trillion.
23:22Hopefully,
23:24from that 700 trillion,
23:26it can be allocated to
23:28encourage the development
23:30of entrepreneurship.
23:32From now on,
23:34to higher education.
23:36I think it will be very cool.
23:38And we are heading
23:40to Indonesia Emas 2045 later.
23:42We will have a backbone
23:44of the young generation
23:46whose entrepreneurship spirit
23:48is not inferior to that of neighboring countries.
23:50Because we live
23:52in a global village.
23:54So we can't lose.
23:56Okay. That's it.
23:58The most important thing is how the government
24:00will improve the pro-growth policies.
24:02And while we are increasing
24:04the skill of our young generation,
24:06the spirit of entrepreneurship.
24:08We can't just be a trader,
24:10but a producer. That's the most important thing.
24:12We can increase health
24:14and inclusiveness.
24:16Hopefully, it can be a solution
24:18for Indonesia's economic growth in the future.
24:20Parian, thank you for your time
24:22and for your analysis.
24:24And also, Mr. Arief, thank you for the insight
24:26that you have conveyed to the audience today.
24:28Congratulations on continuing your activities again.
24:30Stay healthy. Parian, Mr. Arief. Thank you.
24:32Thank you, Mr. Arief.
24:34Thank you, Parian.
24:36Assalamualaikum.
24:38Assalamualaikum.
24:40We will be back soon with another interesting topic
24:42related to the Power Wheeling scheme
24:44in the development of renewable energy in Indonesia.
24:52The Power Wheeling Scheme
24:54in the development of renewable energy
24:56in Indonesia