The way the BetFair exchange works is that odds are generated based on who's betting on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.
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00:00 Our two most popular markets are most seats, which Labour absolutely dominate at the minute.
00:07 They're as short as 1 to 33 to win the most seats at the next election, which is roughly
00:11 around a 97% chance.
00:14 And then another popular market of ours is the overall majority market.
00:18 Around ยฃ3.6 million has been staked on that one market alone, of which 72% of that money
00:25 has been in favour of Sir Keir Starmer's party.
00:29 They are the overwhelming favourites to win an overall majority at 1 to 11, which gives
00:35 them about a 92% chance.
00:37 So punters really, really favouring Labour in this general election.
00:43 But then we do have a whole host of other markets available, such as how many seats
00:47 will the Conservatives lose at the upcoming general election?
00:51 And looking at that market, it's not good reading for Rishi Sunak.
00:56 Around 201 or more seat losses is the overwhelming favourite, at a short odds of 1 to 3.
01:03 So not looking good for the Prime Minister at the minute.
01:06 Well, that's how the political betting markets are looking for the upcoming general election
01:10 at the moment.
01:11 But just how much can we rely on the odds to predict the outcome of future events?
01:16 The way the Betfair exchange works is that the odds are generated based on who's betting
01:20 on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.
01:24 The Brexit referendum, where at midnight when the exit poll came out, punters were saying
01:31 it was going to be Remain.
01:33 However, what we did see were when those votes started to trickle in, punters were really,
01:39 really quick to flip those odds and to make it so that Leave would be the favourite.
01:44 And ultimately, that was the outcome.
01:46 So accuracy and the speed in which these markets react is really, really interesting as well.
01:54 as things stand punters are heavily favoring a Labour majority.