AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Nov. 12 to talk about a new risk for tropical development in the Caribbean.
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00:00Joining us right now is AccuA, the lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.
00:04And, you know, Alex, above all, ahead of all other known sources, including the National
00:08Hurricane Center, we've been highlighting this area in the Western Caribbean for the last week,
00:14and we upgraded this to a high chance for development late yesterday morning.
00:20Yeah, and I don't think we're just going to be dealing with a tropical storm here.
00:23I think we could potentially be dealing with a hurricane as we head into the weekend.
00:27Very high confidence that we think something is going to develop here
00:30in the central to western Caribbean here late this week and into the weekend.
00:35The atmosphere is very, very primed for development.
00:38Let's talk about we're already seeing where the energy is.
00:40Here it is.
00:41It is south of Hispaniola.
00:43Now, right now, there's a number of clusters of thunderstorms, and that speaks to the fact
00:47that it's not organized right now.
00:50But everything, I think, is falling in line for this to develop.
00:55Yeah, I don't think anything's going to really happen in the next day or two.
00:58But at the end of the weekend, certainly into the weekend, we could be dealing
01:02with something that could try to rapidly intensify.
01:05You can see the wind shear product here.
01:06It's pretty much very, very light wind shear denoted there by that very light purple color.
01:11So very favorable environment now around the Caribbean, not so favorable.
01:15But where we think this will develop looks like it's very favorable for development.
01:20You know, the other story, and we talked about this all hurricane season,
01:24was just how warm the water is.
01:26Now, our product you're looking at right now is not the warm.
01:30It's not the water temperatures.
01:31It's the actual ocean heat content.
01:35Explain that to our viewers in the Gulf of Mexico and also into the Caribbean here.
01:39Yeah, you've heard us talk about this a lot.
01:41And so those darker colors indicate how deep that warm water extends.
01:45Now, we've seen multiple storms move through the western Caribbean,
01:48but the water temperatures really haven't changed that much
01:51because that warm water extends so far down,
01:53hundreds and hundreds of feet below the surface of the ocean there.
01:57And so that gives tropical cyclones plenty, plenty of energy to work with.
02:01In the western Caribbean, this is where the highest ocean heat content is.
02:05And that's why I'm very concerned that this could
02:07intensify into a hurricane sometime this weekend,
02:10could even try to intensify into a major hurricane,
02:13given those atmospheric conditions that look very, very favorable.
02:16Let's talk about the snapshot here as we go through the rest of this week, Alex.
02:20Yeah, so as the system moves into the western Caribbean,
02:23like I said, the atmospheric conditions are going to be very, very favorable.
02:26So we could see this develop rather quickly late this week and into the weekend.
02:30And I think we're going to certainly be dealing with a hurricane this weekend,
02:34you know, could even make a run here towards major hurricane.
02:37And then the big question is, right, where does it go from there?
02:40And I think there's really two scenarios here.
02:42One, we're going to be watching that area of high pressure to the north,
02:45similar to the last storm.
02:46Now, if that area of high pressure is stronger,
02:49it'll just push it west into Central America, into Mexico.
02:52But if there's a little bit of a window, if that high is a little bit weaker,
02:55that can allow a bit of a turn to the north.
02:58So Florida is going to have to keep a very, very close eye on this one.
03:02All right, Acuba, the lead hurricane expert out.
03:04By the way, Alex, pretty impressive on a bad scale here.
03:08And we both expect this to be a hurricane.
03:10This will be the 12th hurricane of the season.
03:14Really quickly, just talk about how the strength of the season
03:17pertaining to the number of hurricanes we've seen.
03:20Yeah, it's far above average in terms of the number of hurricanes.
03:23And I think a lot of that has to do with the really warm ocean temperatures.
03:26You've heard us talking about that all year long.
03:28The water temperatures, well, well above average.
03:31And again, it's not only about the water temperatures.
03:33It's that depth. It's that ocean heat content,
03:35basically breaking records for the entirety of the season.
03:38I think that's one of the major drivers of why this season has been so active.
03:42All right, Acuba, the hurricane expert, meteorologist Alex Da Silva.
03:45Thanks, Alex, for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.