AccuWeather's Jon Porter was live on the AccuWeather Network on Nov. 12 to discuss the latest in the tropics.
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00:00It's a season that won't end.
00:01Let's take you out to Negril, Jamaica, and it's going to be south of Jamaica where we're
00:06going to see development as early as Friday, but certainly over the upcoming weekend.
00:11All right.
00:12With that, let's bring in Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
00:16And you know, John, back in early September, there was a lot of naysayers out there talking
00:23about this hurricane season.
00:25We kept on telling everybody, listen, it's a different kind of season.
00:28It's a longer season.
00:30We are still concerned about plenty of storms.
00:34Here's where we are right now, John, and it's been very busy.
00:36We've had two named storms here just in the last 10 days.
00:41Sure has.
00:42And there was that long lull in the middle of the season.
00:45But we kept stressing that the back end of the season, the second half of the season
00:50would be very active.
00:51And that has been exactly the case, of course, with Raphael.
00:56And now our concerns about another named storm likely on the way, and this one, Bernie,
01:01we think is likely to become a hurricane and also likely to become a major hurricane in
01:06the Caribbean.
01:07All right.
01:08Here's our forecast, John.
01:09Now, our initial forecast was 20 to 25 storms.
01:12We did edge that down to 16 to 20.
01:14But I'll tell you what, John, we can easily have 20 storms.
01:17Don't forget, we have 17, Sarah could be 18.
01:20We have that unnamed subtropical storm that could be 19 at the end of the season.
01:24We may get another one.
01:27So it's been a busy hurricane season.
01:28Look at the numbers, John.
01:30We were forecasting three to six major hurricanes, which is well above the historical average.
01:36And right now we're sitting at five.
01:38Yeah, we think we've got another one here on the way.
01:40And we've had lots of impacts here in the United States, as we accurately forecast ahead
01:44of other sources and more accurately with major impacts, both the coast and also with
01:50the significant flooding, of course, inland with Helene and other storms, too.
01:55And after we had a little meeting with not only our tropical experts, our long range
02:00experts, meteorologist Joe Lumberg, Paul Pasteluk, they alerted us to a pattern that made us
02:06think November is going to be pretty busy.
02:11We sure did.
02:12We issued another exclusive AccuWeather forecast calling for the threat of additional storms
02:17into December across parts of the Atlantic Basin.
02:21We did that back on October 28th.
02:23We highlighted the East Coast and especially Florida most likely at risk for impacts.
02:28And we called for one to three additional named storms.
02:31Now, Bernie, let's put that into context for a minute.
02:33The historic average over 30 years for named storms in November is one every two years.
02:39So three additional storms would be well above the historic average.
02:43We've already had two another on the way.
02:45And here's our third one.
02:46It was yesterday morning, John, that we did upgrade to a high risk.
02:50Here it is in the northwest Caribbean, late week into the upcoming weekend, John.
02:56Here's the energy.
02:57Let's go over the ingredients.
02:58We begin with an unorganized area of thunderstorms, but thunderstorms nonetheless south of Hispaniola.
03:06That's correct.
03:07This has been a repeated pattern this year.
03:08Look at these thunderstorms across the Caribbean Sea.
03:12Pressures are lowering.
03:13And over time here, this is going to be the trouble spot once again.
03:17These thunderstorms will consolidate, I think, pretty quickly into a tropical storm late
03:22this week.
03:23Now, our ocean heat, this is another thing we're concerned about.
03:27Not only the ocean warm waters of the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, but what we call the ocean
03:33heat content, the depth of the warm water.
03:36And that's what really concerned us for this season.
03:40It does.
03:41And look at this off the coast of Mexico, south of Cuba.
03:43Look at the intensity here on the ocean heat content.
03:48This is not only warm water right at the surface, but sometimes a couple hundred feet deep in
03:53the Caribbean Sea.
03:54This is rocket fuel, high-octane rocket fuel for developing tropical storm and hurricane.
04:00All right, John, let's quickly go over the ingredients.
04:02It begins, and I've been pointing this out, I think this is underrated.
04:05This frontal boundary that's gone off the eastern seaboard, that's going to come south.
04:09That's going to stall, and that's going to add some upward motion south of that front.
04:14That's going to allow the showers and thunderstorms to really get going here over the next couple
04:18of days.
04:19And then we look at this, John, and this is always the limiting factor this time of the
04:23year, wind shear.
04:24But we don't see any Friday into the weekend.
04:26We do not.
04:27It's all to the north.
04:28And so that tells us with extremely warm water and light wind shear, what's going to stop
04:33this?
04:34Nothing.
04:35Nothing is a concern here.
04:38All right, John, let's go over this.
04:39We think that this is going to organize over the next couple of days.
04:42Then, as it moves into the northwest Caribbean, let's say Friday into Saturday, that's where
04:47we think this is going to be a named storm.
04:48And you all are all concerned that it's not only a hurricane, but a major hurricane by
04:53early next week.
04:55That was a consensus our team is meeting right now behind me here in the Global Weather Center.
04:59And our hurricane experts are concerned that this is going to likely become a tropical
05:04major hurricane here as we head through the next five or so days in the Caribbean.
05:09And then it can be drawn north.
05:11All right.
05:12Let's talk about this.
05:13John, all morning I've been talking about maybe a 5 percent chance that the dip in the
05:18jet stream that's coming into the northeast, let's say Wednesday night into Thursday, could
05:23pick this hurricane up early next week and move it to the north and east out of the picture.
05:28That seems so unlikely.
05:30So this is what we think are the two scenarios as we move forward, John.
05:35And it's all one of the biggest keys is that area of high pressure across Florida.
05:39Explain.
05:40Yes.
05:41As this area of high pressure drifts slowly off to the south and east, its intensity and
05:45location is going to be key.
05:46At first, the storm will start to move to the west.
05:49But as that area of high pressure drifts off to the south and east, a northerly route can
05:54open up.
05:55And that is why we're concerned that the storm as a major hurricane can be drawn north toward
05:59Cuba and then into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and may threaten Florida and other
06:05parts of the southeast as we head toward next week, the end of next week.
06:08If that high remains strong, then the western track persists and then it goes into Central
06:14America.
06:15And really quickly, John, in about 15 seconds, South Florida has fortunately missed out on
06:19a lot of storms.
06:21But climatologically, Florida this time of the year is a place to look for impacts.
06:25It sure is.
06:26We want everybody in Florida to be monitoring this very closely here on the AccuWeather
06:30Network.
06:31All right.
06:32AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
06:36Storm Nate 18 on the way.
06:38Stay with us.